Android Picks up More US Subscribers as Windows Mobile Share Plunges

[Pete Paxton]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Android-picks-up-more-US-subscribers-as-Windows-Mobile-share-plunges/1268247158?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+bn+(Betanews+Full+Content+Feed+-+BN)' target='_blank'>http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/a...tent+Feed+-+BN)</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Windows Mobile phones continue to bleed US subscribers, with Android devices picking up most of the lost subscriber share. Can you say free falling? Today, ComScore released standard handset and smartphone data for the three-month period of November 2009 to January 2010. ComScore designates the platforms by vendor. Microsoft smartphone subscriber share fell to 15.7 percent from 19.7 percent three months earlier. Meanwhile, Google rose to 7.1 percent from 2.8 percent during the same time period."</em></p><p>I agree that Windows Mobile is hurting - for now. I hardly ever see anyone with a Windows Mobile device anymore and I really don't hear many talking about near future purchases of Windows Mobile devices.<em> </em>But if we look back, sales of MS Vista were also low but sales of Windows 7 have been very good. I think the same is going to be true for the Windows Phone 7 series. And even though it's still months away, I don't think we'll see enough drastic changes in the Iphone or Android devices to keep people away from what Microsoft will offer. As a matter of fact, I think it will be a welcome change for many. The bottom line? I think Comscore's data collection from November 2010 to January 2011 will be much different. Do you agree or disagree?</p>

[Fritzly]

Hard to say....... too many unknown parameters in my opinion:

What WP7 will really be? Details are scarce to say the least and, obviously, what we know so far it is only what MS decided to disclose.

What will Apple and Android are preparing against WP7? Nobody knows but my guess is that they will not repeat MS, and Palm before MS, mistake and sit there doing nothing.

Where WP7 will be offered? Worldwide or US only like the Zune? Although the US are an easier market because it is controlled by Carriers it is not among the most advanced ones; honestly we are quite behind.

As I said too many factors...... making a guess right now is like to go to Las Vegas and bet on the red or the black.

[efjay]

I am trying to think how apple or google can implement any ideas from WP7S, without radically changing how their respective OS's work and breaking compatibility in a big way I dont see how they can.

As for market predictions, sadly I think WM wont have anywhere else to go but up by the time the Nov 10-Jan 11 numbers are revealed.

[Jason Lee]

Well, from what I've seen of WP7 so far my next phone will be an android phone.
If I wanted a totally locked down, closed ecosystem phone I would buy an iphone.
I want openness and customization. I want WM 6.5.x.

This change in direction makes me very sad. I have used Windows Mobile (CE) since I got my first device in 1995. WinCE 1.0. Microsoft has thrown all of that away with WP7.
None of my software I have used for years will work. Heck, I won't even be able to install software unless Microsoft approves it. So what incentive do I have to stay with the platform? I use all of Google's online services, not Microsoft's. If I have to start from scratch why not start where my online services work best?

I know this is a needed change to make Windows Mobile relevant again but why do you have to totally close the system? Lock everything down?
I will admit it does all look very nice and will probably work well. But unless some things change (which they still might, we don't know a lot yet) I will not buy a WP7 device. :(

My only hope now is that Google will eventually sell a north american 3G nexus one.

[whydidnt]

I tend to agree with Jason Lee. Microsoft has locked this down too tight. We just don't know how the end product will perform, either. I think for Microsoft to win they needed to come up with the best of both worlds solution.

Why couldn't they have held manufacturers to strict hardware and UI requirements, offer up a quality marketplace, but yet still allow end users the ability to install or customize whatever apps they wanted? This would keep the market from fragmenting, which was an issue previously, while still allowing users to the freedom and flexibility to use their phone as they want. The argument about the iphone being locked and successful is not a good one, when you consider that there are 100,000+ applications available on that platform today AND the iPhone is now entrenched in the market.

I ask, once again, what is WP7S offering besides a different (still tbd if better) UI and Xbox integration? What is the "hook" to get folks to move from their current choice to this platform. Folks using Android probably won't change if they feel the device is too locked down. People using Apple won't change if they don't have access to the same variety and quality of applications.

Both the iPhone and Android provide a superior web browsing experience to anything we've seen from Microsoft to date. Will WPS7 change this?

[ntractv]

Well I have had a Motorola Droid through Verizon for about two months and I hate to say it but I just might be done with WinMo. We'll see

[whydidnt]

Well I have had a Motorola Droid through Verizon for about two months and I hate to say it but I just might be done with WinMo. We'll see

I'm curious to hear what WinMo would have to offer to win you back. I think that with Microsoft's complacency in the mobile area, many of us are taking a wait and see approach to the new OS, but it would be interesting to hear what other users think MS needs to deliver in order to compete in this market space again.

[frankenbike]

Microsoft would have to package a lot of free functionality that would cost money on other devices. Since they're calling this a consumer appliance, let's look at what consumers would consider as added value by choosing what is now the "off brand" (because Microsoft has let its product become the beggar at the table):
*Free navigation software with voice nav (which would annoy carriers who want to sell their $2.99 a day or $10 a month services). I think you can already get this with Android
*Google and Yahoo mail apps and a much better Facebook app
*Chat software that handles Google, Yahoo, AIM, and FB as well as MS.
*A browser that can do Flash web sites, including sites like Justin.tv and Ustream, as well as things like CoverItLive, not just YouTube
*An app for PC and Macs that lets you type on the screen of your PC or Mac when you are plugged in via USB, so you can answer text messages, or more easily enter logins and passwords.
*Fully functional weather app with radar and GPS ranging (but with remote location override)
--This might be accomplished by unifying all the Bing apps that can be map based into one, all accessible on the "Map", without separate directions, traffic, movies, gas prices, etc.
*Travel software so people can check flights or keep other travel info like hotels and confirmations in one place.
*Shopping software with UPC scanner that works with 1D, 2D and other scanner codes
*It would be nice if it came out of the gate with a working Pandora app, but at least make sure one is available for all of its phones
*Built in "Flashlight" app.
*Spec all camera phones to have a flash

Microsoft has a history of being extremely stingy with built in functionality. Maybe that has something to do with anti-monopoly issues, but since their market share isn't dominant, I can't see how that is anything but an excuse. Their "App Store" also has to be considered an integral part of marketing the platform, not primarily an optimized money making site for Microsoft. That means, taking a cut on paid apps, but allowing everyone to get apps on there for free if they're offered for free, assuming they're otherwise vetted. That vetting process means MS subsidizes testing of free apps as part of its marketing expense. Free apps sell phones. Cheap $1 apps sell phones. Those should be encouraged.

If they don't want to do these things, people will go with the "more established" (by the time WM7 comes out, Android will be considered much more established) platforms that give them the best bang for their buck. Also consider the situation of the iPhone being available on more carriers, so there will be competition where there is none now.

[MadSci]

:confused:

Locking down the system and making all your current customer's investments in programs is going to kill WinMo. Microsoft is too used to bullying people into buying new software when they want to by withdrawing the established versions (their OS' and Office products). Every now and then they get away with it, because most businesses have so much invested in Windows systems, but cell phone users can switch anytime they like. Why don't I have an Android system? Not enough Apps, and I have too much invested in my current suite of Apps. Add to that decent Outlook sync and I have a reason to stay. The iPhone is hopeless from the syc perspective and I don't want to ditch my Apps for Apple-approved and Apple-removable ones.

MS is really going to see their customer base migrate in droves over this. And does anyone REALLY think a locked-down MS OS will be competative? Maybe, if the competition stays still and doesn't offer multitasking and high resolution screens. Anyone expect Apple and Google to give up on product development?

And WinMo7 better be TOTALLY stable, no more memory leaks and locked screens or they will be at a disadvantage to their competetitors.

A locked down OS makes MS just an undesirable commodity in a comoditized market. Basic economics tells you all the rest you need to know.

[Russ Smith]

I can see why the folks are turning to Android now. It's the same sort of reasons that I went with the HD2. Android is an open and extensible system with third-party apps appearing. The phones are high-end functional too. I'm seriously looking at the Android OS as an option in case WP7 really doesn't do it for me.

The more I read about WP7, though, the more I suspect that it will turn things around for MS.

[wspears868]

Until MS wrestles control of upgrades from the phone companies, I will next purchase an Android phone. I am tired of having to purchase a new phone (and lock down my phone company for two years) in order to upgrad MS mobile. Now that Android is available, I have an alternative path than MS and I plan to use it.

[Rob Alexander]

Listen, those of us who are here are the most likely to not like MS changing Windows phones. We're the last disciples, but we're a dying breed. MS has lost absolutely all mindshare in the media and with users, so they had to do something drastic... and they are. While it may not be what we want, it certainly gives them a better shot at success than they would have if they continued with refinements to WM.

As to what it would take to win me to Windows 7. Well, as others have said, I have a huge investment in software and knowledge that I will lose when I change platforms so the first thing is that MS is on a level playing field with everyone else. I'll consider what works best for me, starting from scratch. So here's what they'll need to win me over.

Their whole thing is integration. Instead of an app-centric model, they are developing a task-centric model. They must do that exceptionally well and consistently to win me over. That is, it cannot be the case they they stick a few data links in for Facebook and Flicker, then consider their job done. Integration must be the culture and 3rd party apps should have a way to get in on the game.

What I am thinking of is something like this. I have my Gmail open in a native window that supports all the Gmail features (not an IMAP download into Pocket Outlook) and I have a persistent connection with Facebook, my images on Smugmug and my own ftp or web server or Windows Home Server. When I open that email, I should be able to see the images without clicking on a bunch of buttons and I should be able to flick a picture out of the email with one stroke and send it to any of my places with one more. (I'm thinking of the Courier video we saw recently.) I should be able to flip open a window to my WHS and drag in a Word document that I need with just a flick or two. I should be able to see flash and youtube natively in any web or email environment.

The examples go on, but the idea is that integration and task-based design is what they're selling us, and that could be hugely useful. They just need to really deliver.

[Omegajb]

I've been a WM/Pocket PC fan since the begining and I'm not sure I'm crazy about what I've heard about WM7 but I'll have to wait and see.
For me WM is almost perfect but the software is still buggy, the hardware is lacking enough memory to run programs like Sense UI and leave open memory to keep the phone running smooth and allplications are lacking. If WM locks down the OS where devlpers decided not to write programs the platform is doomed for the consumer.


If I could get the Droid on Tmobile with 3G support I might have dipped my toe into the Android market but I don't like the G1 and I still question Google's privacy policies.

[David Tucker]

I switched to Android on a G1 when it first launched over a year ago. I don't see Windows Phone 7 drawing me back either. I originally went with PocketPC 2k2 years ago because at the time, it was the most powerful thing you could get. I stuck with it after the iPhone came out because while it was showing its age, it also was far more flexible than the iPhone was or probably ever will be. But I finally moved to Android because I felt it offered a better blend of flexibility, modernity, and power.

Windows Phone 7 will probably do well. To the average consumer that's exactly what they want. They don't care (as the iPhone proves) about having a very flexible device. They just want an appliance. However I think that Android very easily fills that role just as well. Additionally its capturing the mindshare of people like us who don't want to be told how we can use our device.

WP7's only draw for me is the fact that it integrates Zune. But I actually like having a standalone player so I don't really have a desire to get the phone based on that. I think the market will eventually boil down to RIM, iPhone, WM7 & Android but I don't think WM7 will be competing for the top spot.

[caywen]

but I think now it's all about the hardware. I hope HTC, Samsung, and LG give WP7 their A game.

[Sven Johannsen]

The bottom line? I think Comscore's data collection from November 2010 to January 2011 will be much different. Do you agree or disagree?

At least in the US, I would guess that the folks that affected the Nov 2009 to Jan 2010 figures, won't be making any changes until Nov 2011 to Jan 2012. Every new phone contract between today and whenever WP7S is available is lost to MS for two years from when it was signed. The average user walks into his carrier's store when his contract is up and picks from what is available that day. I don't see the AT&T (or any other carrier) sales droid saying, 'hey, if you wait six months to re-up, this really cool MS phone will probably be out." Right now MS is running on a flat tire, and is going to lose ground until the pit stop. They are getting a whole new car though. Hope it is fast enough.

[Jason Dunn]

Some really great comments in this thread - keep 'em coming! I love reading the different perspectives people have in our community. A few random thoughts:

1) An open, flexible, "geeky" OS is appealing to only a small % of users. I think Microsoft went as far as they could go with that OS. Windows Mobile 6.5 on great hardware (HD2) is a damn fine OS for power users...but all those umpteen millions of people buying their very first smartphone? They're not power users - they're average users who care about being able to install CAB files directly on their device about as much as they care about being able to load new software onto their microwave. Most average people care about benefits, not features. They care about having their phone provide solutions to the things they need day to day. If a phone can do that, great - it doesn't matter how open or closed it is.

2) The fragmented state of Windows Mobile today is a direct result of Microsoft having given up too much control to the OEMs; their "Let a thousand flowers bloom!" approach of letting anyone and everyone build the devices, in a variety of screen sizes, form factors, hardware configuration, and screen resolutions brought us to the ugly mess we're in today. I appreciate the variety of form factors that Windows Mobile ships in today, but if I have to sacrifice my beloved non-touchscreen messaging phone to get a truly kick-ass mobile OS, then so be it. I believe strongly those other form-factors will come back as new chassis specs are introduced in 2011/2012.

3) I've said this in other threads, but it may very well be that Android becomes the OS of choice for the power users who want the ability to use their phones like a PC. Have I mentioned I own the domain Android Thoughts? We'll still have a place for you guys, so don't go far! :D

4) I truly believe that we'll see some amazing devices from HTC, LG, Toshiba, HP, etc. by the end of this year. I think the refreshed, unified hardware approach will allow the OEMs to focus on building kick-ass hardware rather than building software that has to cover up the limitations of Windows Mobile.

I haven't had any hands-on time with a Windows phone 7 device yet, but the things I care about most are keeping in touch with the people in my life on email, SMS, Facebook, Twitter, etc. I care about making phone calls, weather, Web browsing, finding my way with a GPS, photos, music, videos, neat apps, and games now and then. If Windows phone 7 can deliver a truly best-of-breed experience in those scenarios, then I'll gladly give up the rest of the things that I rarely do (tethering my phone, being able to install little OS hacks, etc.)

And let's not forget that Windows phone 7 is really a 1.0 OS. It's not a new coat of paint on the Windows Mobile 6.x house; they burned that mother down and built a whole new house. That means that at launch, this 1.0 OS might be missing a few things...so it may take some time/patience for the OS to mature. Remember the iPhone 1.0 didn't even have apps...that seems inconceivable now, doesn't it? In the meantime, it's not like your 6.x phones will stop working. ;)

[037]

I beg to differ. I had, like many of you, switched from Windows Mobile to Android. I used Windows Mobile since it was Orange SPV, and I placed a lot of bets in the platform, and was rewarded for being the first person around the whole town being able to play videos right out of a phone.

Anyway.

I was frustrated at the slow pace of development ever since WM2003. There had been virtually no changes except enterprise features... and new APIs that disallow me from running the latest and greatest unless I upgrade the phone. So when T-Mobile G1 finally came out, I painstakingly exported everything over from Outlook to Google, and started anew.

The Google experience had been great - it allowed me to install all the apps I needed (though it took more than a year until I finally got all the essential apps, particularly Evernote) and customized a screen with icons and widgets, which is great in comparison to the rigid iPhone home screen.

However, it had also turned sour pretty quickly: The small memory of the phone ran out pretty quickly as I shopped for unnecessary apps everything, and the phone slowed down drastically over time. I had to do a hard rest to start anew, and wow, what a fast phone it is again.

But is that my problem that the phone is so slow? Shouldn't the OS manage it properly? I had to root my phone to disable apps from autostart. And the phone would literally stall in the beginning of a phone call, that I would want to throw the phone on the wall for its sluggishness.

And to add salt to injury, after a series of sweet updates for a year, it stopped at 2.0. No big deal - I still got Google Maps Navigation. However, things began to get worse lately as more and more apps are for Android 2.0+. Wait a minute, isn't that Windows Mobile all over again?

Games are also out of the question on Android phones. Will we ever get big titles due to the extreme fragmentation of the Android phone market? It seems like hell for developers to get the game to fit on so many screens, especially when every user expect for free apps and games.

----------------------

Now, back to Windows Phone 7.

While Google absorbed every single bad quality about Windows Mobile - i.e. fragmentation, requiring numerous tweaks to get the phone working, unintelligent multi-tasking, and so on - Windows Phone 7, as I had seen so far, is every single good quality about Windows Mobile.

First, it still has sync between desktop and phone. And to improve on it, ActiveSync is gone, and now the phone can even sync with the cloud, which also syncs with Outlook on desktop. Zune software also streamlines syncing of music and pictures between phone and desktop. Meanwhile, Android has nothing to offer on this area.

Second, it standardized the UI. While Android 2.0 is designed intentionally to make you feel bad about your Android 1.x phone (where all icons and style don't match in any way), Windows Phone 7 has (hopefully) a standardized home screen based on tiles, and UI that is all white on black.

Third, the home screen. Windows Mobile had always been great in terms of the home screen, showing all the essential info you need for the day, from latest appointment to what's now playing on WMP. WP7S retains all of that in the new start menu tiles, as well as the lock screen. Meanwhile, we need to scramble around Android market to find all the widgets that won't drain all the battery away.

Forth, Zune and Xbox games. With Xbox backing the whole system, WP7S has a pretty good chance to be not just a competitor to iPhone in terms of games, but also the equivalent of PSP and Nintendo DS. Taking yet another device on the road is the last thing we need, and WP7S eliminates the need for a handheld game console.

Fifth, OneNote. There is still no good replacement for OneNote on Android. Evernote, maybe, but it's clumsy and unintuitive. Not to mention Android still doesn't have a proper sync with Google Tasks. WP7S will have all of that. I can't wait to go back to the freedom of OneNote.

With all that said, there will be a few things that I like in Android, such as Google Maps Navigation, Google Reader and Google Voice, that probably won't be in WP7S any time soon. However, I don't see why Google would not port any of them to WP7S, like what they had done for Windows Mobile.

It's still more than half a year away from the first WP7S phone, so we have yet to see what Google, Apple and Microsoft have hidden under their sleeves. But for now, I am pretty optimistic about WP7S, and not so much about Android. :)

[Jason Dunn]

However, it had also turned sour pretty quickly: The small memory of the phone ran out pretty quickly as I shopped for unnecessary apps everything, and the phone slowed down drastically over time. I had to do a hard rest to start anew, and wow, what a fast phone it is again. But is that my problem that the phone is so slow? Shouldn't the OS manage it properly? I had to root my phone to disable apps from autostart. And the phone would literally stall in the beginning of a phone call, that I would want to throw the phone on the wall for its sluggishness.

Thank you for such a great first post in our forums - it's great to have someone add a little reality to the situation. I've believed for a while now that Android isn't some magical platform where all the problems with Windows Mobile are fixed but none the limitations exist. Android has managed to become, in two years, what took Microsoft 6+ years to achieve: a fragmented, confusing mess of a platform with growing pains that need working out. It seems like the people who are most pro-Android are the ones who haven't really used it...

[037]

Thank you for such a great first post in our forums - it's great to have someone add a little reality to the situation. I've believed for a while now that Android isn't some magical platform where all the problems with Windows Mobile are fixed but none the limitations exist. Android has managed to become, in two years, what took Microsoft 6+ years to achieve: a fragmented, confusing mess of a platform with growing pains that need working out. It seems like the people who are most pro-Android are the ones who haven't really used it...
Thanks!! :D Sometimes people express their angst against a platform or software because they actually really love it... (fighting with a girlfriend or a wife over something trivial... we all know it :p ) so I'm trying to put it more objectively from an Android users' perspective. The grass is always greener on the other side! Always!

I reset my Android phone yesterday because my phone has a cellular reception problem after I dropped my phone on the ground a few times over the year. The phone is fast and snappy when nothing was installed. 20 apps later (including weather widget, Facebook, Pandora, Evernote, Google Voice and so on), despite there are still 20MB of RAM left, the phone begins to lag. I have to wait 5 seconds for the home screen to load.

Who wants to wait for the home screen to load when they are in the middle of the phone call trying to look up the calendar? It's downright embarrassing I have to tell the other person, "I am waiting for my Android to load." That's not the kind of multi-tasking I want.

The only multi-tasking people want is the kind of Alt-Tab quick switcher (like holding Home key on Android) so I can switch between Facebook and Foursquare quickly without going through the home screen.

That's right. The truth is, "Multi-tasking" basically means "without going through the home screen, and when I'm back to the app I don't need to wait it load and I'll be back on the screen where I left off".

iPhone doesn't have that user experience, and Palm makes it very clear. Android, so-so. And Microsoft simply needs to build some snazzy 3-D Win-Tab kind of thing to make the whiners think they have multi-tasking. The truth is, there will never be true multi-tasking on a phone that lacks infinite battery and processing power. Even Android pauses software when they are not active, too. (Hell, even Windows on desktop slows down tasks when they aren't active.)

And now let's let Gizmodo and Engadget ramble on their "no multi-tasking" bs.... :cool: