Do Most Indy-Trendy-Hipsters Use Macs?

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://torontoist.com/2008/06/vice_to_zune_mu.php' target='_blank'>http://torontoist.com/2008/06/vice_to_zune_mu.php</a><br /><br /></div><img border="1" alt="" src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/zt/auto/1212612712.usr1.jpg" /><br /><br />Google's keyword alert feature slavishly delivers to me all the Zune-based news I can handle, and the Zune Thoughts team then slavishly delivers it to you, and while slavishly reading the latest mention of the Zune over at a Web site called <a target="_blank" href="http://torontoist.com/2008/06/vice_to_zune_mu.php">torontoist</a>, this quote caught my eye:<br /><br /><em>&quot;The best things in life, everyone knows, aren't free. The best things in life are things other people have to pay for, and you get for free. Like the 1,000 bottles of beer at the latest of Toronto's legendary VICE parties, if you were early or lucky or special enough to get into the Deleon White Gallery on Friday night. Or, say, the 300 Microsoft Zunes given to young &quot;influencers&quot; (bloggers, DJs, other kinds of people who normally use Macs) as part of the shiny new mp3 player's semi-viral launch. (Full disclosure: we got ours in the mail yesterday.) Microsoft doesn't like to talk about the (white) elephant in the room&mdash;the seemingly unstoppable iPod&mdash;but it's obvious their cross-Canada marketing efforts are aimed squarely at the Justin Long demographic.&quot;</em><br /><br />That got me thinking about something that we've touched on before here, but never really got down to discussing: given that the target demographic that Microsoft's marketing has been going after, which since launch has been the independent music types, is it a serious mis-step for the Zune not to have an OS X solution? It seems pretty pointless to market to Indy-Trendy-Hipster-types if you don't have a software solution fr the platform that they're using.

[Darius Wey]

That got me thinking about something that we've touched on before here, but never really got down to discussing: given that the target demographic that Microsoft's marketing has been going after, which since launch has been the independent music types, is it a serious mis-step for the Zune not to have an OS X solution? It seems pretty pointless to market to Indy-Trendy-Hipster-types if you don't have a software solution fr the platform that they're using.

That's a tricky one. There aren't many Mac users out there who dislike what the iPod has to offer. So, for Microsoft, in working on a native OS X solution, they would have to ask themselves whether they could sway enough Mac users to justify the costs in development.

In the meantime, those serious about using a Zune will often fire up Parallels Desktop or VMware Fusion and sync their Zune that way. It's messy, but it works.

[Adam Krebs]

In the meantime, those serious about using a Zune will often fire up Parallels Desktop or VMware Fusion and sync their Zune that way. It's messy, but it works.

I'm not sure how many people are willing to jump through those hoops just to get a media management solution. I know several Mac users who were seriously considering a Zune before learning that there's no OSX client available. Beyond people who need it for mission-critical applications, I don't think too many people know about or own virtualization software.

Again, I think this is a really difficult discussion. Market figures show that Mac owners are just a small sublet of the market, but anecdotal experience begs to differ.

[dp]

Again, I think this is a really difficult discussion. Market figures show that Mac owners are just a small sublet of the market, but anecdotal experience begs to differ.

The market isn't PC users; it's mp3 player owners. If you assume Apple's 100 million sold are in active use and still represent 70+% of the market, the total market size is a little more than 140 million. If you assume 100 million doesn't represent actual users (highly likely) but Apple still has 70% of the market (highly likely), the market is even smaller than 140 million. Apple's approximately 20 million Mac users could potentially represent 15% of the total music player market market (a huge number when working from 4%). Considering Apple does best in the U.S., in the consumer market -- and Zune is still U.S. only -- Mac users likely represent even more of a potential market that Microsoft isn't addressing. If you want to focus in even more on young, hip, music-loving Americans, it's probably even much more.

Or consider it another way: if Microsoft could attract just 5% of Mac users, Microsoft would have another 1 million users and would increase their market share by 50%.

Cross-platform development should not be that hard; numerous companies accomplish it quite well for equally sophisticated software (and more so) as Zune. It should be easy and desirable for Microsoft, but they don't seem capable of coding for other platforms. And Zune development has progressed rather slowly as is.

Maybe Microsoft should just focus on getting into other markets around the world considering Apple is likely to introduce the second iPhone before Microsoft gets to Canada and may soon be in 60+ countries by the time Zune decides to cross some water.

[edit: post too long?]

[dp]

While the argument that Mac users won't use Microsoft products is somewhat fair for a very small diehard minority of Mac users -- it doesn't really hold water in general. Most Mac users still use Office -- despite it growing horribly bad in recent years; most have experience and can respect some Microsoft software in their day-to-day work lives. The same criticism could be said of Windows users who would never use expensive Apple gear like iPods and look what's happened. Even in the case of Windows users who still don't want iPods, I think there is a degree of mindshare gain just by trying (even if they think it obvious for Apple to develop for Windows or think iTunes sucks). If Microsoft really had a compelling, competitive product, it would attract its fair share of Mac users (and from a marketing perspective, having 2-4% of Mac users could be more powerful than the same % of the total market). What is true: if Zune software didn't work as well as iTunes on their Macs, if the Zune player didn't sync seamlessly with the Mac Zune software, etc..., then yes, it would likely fail. Microsoft would have to do commit to doing it right -- which it rarely does with Mac software that it develops. (Although there have been periods in history where the Mac equivalent was often superior to the Windows version. And I wouldn't suggest that iTunes has been perfect on Windows, only that the iPod has been largely superior to what is available to Win users.)

[ManMythLegend]

I'm not sure how many people are willing to jump through those hoops just to get a media management solution. I know several Mac users who were seriously considering a Zune before learning that there's no OSX client available. Beyond people who need it for mission-critical applications, I don't think too many people know about or own virtualization software.

Again, I think this is a really difficult discussion. Market figures show that Mac owners are just a small sublet of the market, but anecdotal experience begs to differ.


I switched to Linux about 6 months ago and before I found out about VirtualBox and VMWare I used to dual boot into windows simply to update my Zune and that didn't even bother me too much to not do it.

Now, when I first got my Zune I was still running XP BUT if I had already switched over I can definitely say that I would have second thought getting one...a sad realization that I could have very possibly missed out on such a great product...

[Adam Krebs]

I switched to Linux about 6 months ago and before I found out about VirtualBox and VMWare I used to dual boot into windows simply to update my Zune and that didn't even bother me too much to not do it.

Most people who switch to Linux have an above-average knowledge of computers (I'm completely speculating here) and so would most likely be aware of virtualization. Most "switchers" from Windows to Mac (again, complete speculation/anecdote) tend to do it due to decreased complexity, and either don't know about/how to virtualize or don't want to. Even as virtualization solutions become easier to use, they're still a pain, and not nearly as convenient as a native client or a shoddily-written port.

[Jason Dunn]

That's a tricky one. There aren't many Mac users out there who dislike what the iPod has to offer.

Indeed, that's what I've always thought, and I still think that's true. Yet the bulk of Microsoft's marketing efforts seem to be focused on the "think different" crowd, which I'm willing to bet have a much higher % OS X use...so perhaps the real question is why is Microsoft focusing their marketing efforts on a segment of people who are probably using Macs and can't use the Zune easily?

It all seems rather bizarre. :confused:

[Jason Dunn]

I'm not sure how many people are willing to jump through those hoops just to get a media management solution. I know several Mac users who were seriously considering a Zune before learning that there's no OSX client available.

Yeah, I agree - especially lately, much of OS X's growth in the market comes from people switching from Windows because Vista is too complex and they want something different (I'd argue the truth in that of course, but that's the perception). So it has to be native or nothing.

Again, I think this is a really difficult discussion. Market figures show that Mac owners are just a small sublet of the market, but anecdotal experience begs to differ.

I think part of that comes from the number of people in positions of influence who are Mac users - whenever I'm at tech conferences, it's shocking to me how many of my peers have switched to Macs.

[Jason Dunn]

...Mac users likely represent even more of a potential market that Microsoft isn't addressing. If you want to focus in even more on young, hip, music-loving Americans, it's probably even much more.

Exactly - that's my point. There seems to be a disconnect between their product planning and their marketing.

edit: post too long?

Not sure what happened, but vBulletin definitely allows for very large posts, so I don't think that was the issue.

[Jason Dunn]

While the argument that Mac users won't use Microsoft products is somewhat fair for a very small diehard minority of Mac users -- it doesn't really hold water in general.

This is where I'm not so sure...you'd almost need to do a survey at a big Mac-focused Web site and ask the users if they'd try a Zune if it was available on OS X. My gut says that most Mac users are Mac users because they liked the "Apple lifestyle" and recent switchers from Windows I've seen using Boot Camp, Parallels, etc. seem to fairly quickly find native Mac solutions and don't want to use anything Windows - and I can't see these people using a Zune. That's just what I've seen so I have no idea how well that scales up to the broad public...

[dp]

No, definitely not a survey at a Mac site. These are the diehards. These are exactly who you want to avoid. The people who frequent Mac sites, even the majority who aren't rbid fanbois, still might skew the survey just as a show of allegiance. There is a huge class of Mac users who are very technological sophisticated. Graphic designers, web developers, bloggers, artists, musicians... who never have any reason to ever go to a Mac site, ever... except maybe an occasional rumor if they like to follow that market. But even then, most Mac users are sane and can only buy products once a year at best... so they aren't tuning in to Mac sites. Then there is a much bigger majority who has even less reason to ever visit a Mac site. Ever. There are even those who are rabid Mac fans but they don't see a reason to follow tech news, web sites, blogs... No, I think you wouldn't be helping your information gathering pursuing that route.

Go to an Apple store with a Zune and ask people as they come out, were you checking out the iPod? What do you think of this one, Apple doesn't make it? Sure, 50% might not be Mac users already, but I think the crowd entering an Apple store is a fairer sampling.

[Jason Dunn]

No, definitely not a survey at a Mac site. These are the diehards.

Good point. This is always the classic problem: I want to research everything on the Web, but if people are on the Web at community-based sites, they're already a certain type of person...

[dp]

By the way, you are presenting a chicken and egg problem obviously. Do Mac users not want to use the Zune because its Windows, or is it because it's Windows only Mac users won't consider the Zune?

The point being: whether or not Zune is marketing to Mac users or Windows users, they need to be able to say: it might be better, depending on your needs, this might be a better option for you than the iPod. I know you as a fan say that to yourself and whoever will listen, but you can't really say that to at least 20 million potential customers. Because Microsoft says it's not worth it, or Zune users say they won't because their Mac fanbois...

Switchers I know don't abandon Microsoft because they've become assimilated to the Apple way and thus must change. (There really are great options that are better if you make the switch.) If something is superior, they keep using it. Everyone I know who uses Parallels or VMWare do so because of games, VStudio, Access, being more comfortable in Windows Office, AutoCad... Need or an actual better product. Not just because of gang colors.

If the Zune is actually attractive to a Mac user more than the iPod (someone who'd rather have a sub and likes the social network features, for example)... I bet you'll find they would try it at least... if there was an option, that is.

[dp]

Oh, and, yeah, some won't on principle. But much less than those who won't because they actually see the iPod as superior, I would wager.

[crimsonsky]

Okay, Mac user here without a Zune. (Three Macs in the house, two iPods, 2 Airport Extreme base stations, using Boot Camp for Vista on my MacBook when I feel the need). I've mentioned this in another thread that I would love to be able to give the Zune a whirl, but can't. And no, I am not willing to boot into Vista on my MacBook to use the Zune - I have no interest in maintaining two separate music libraries!

When I look at the Zune, two things about it attract me compared to the Nano and Classic iPods (as I've said before the iPod Touch is a special case). The first is the screen and the second is - believe it or not - the radio! Clearly the screen is superior to the Nano or the iPod Classic (not even thinking about flash based devices - neither Zune nor iPod. The limited storage is one of the things I least like about my iPod Touch). Being over 50, I could care less about "the social". Not my thing. But I like the idea of a 80 gig device with a nice large screen and a radio. The subscription model of the Zune Marketplace leaves me cold as well - my music tastes are pretty set and I don't experiment. I prefer music "ownership" (whatever that may be).

I don't use Macs because they're cool - I use Macs because I like OS X better than Windows and (for the most part, or at least legally, Pystar notwithstanding) you can only get OS X with a Mac. Admittedly, Apple makes an ecosystem that is hard not to buy into - everything works together pretty much flawlessly and seamlessly. And that really is the attraction that gets and holds you once you go Mac. But by no stretch of the imagination am I anti-Microsoft - my KB and mouse are MS products, I use Office 2008 on my Mac and am one of the few folks apparently who think Vista is actually a pretty decent OS (as mentioned above, I do dual-book Vista on my MacBook and it screams!)

Personally, I can't imagine what Microsoft would lose by making the Zune work with Macs - although I suspect it may be a hard sell with most Mac users, as pointed out by others. But as it is now, Mac users can't even consider the Zune and I think that's a loss for Microsoft and other Mac users who would like to be able to use something other than an iPod with their music. Heck, I'd be satisfied if the Zune would work with iTunes (yeah - right - fat chance of that happening).

Hey - here's an opportunity for a third party! If someone could do for the Zune what MarkSpace and PocketMac do for Windows Mobile devices, that'd be great. Wonder why no one has stepped up to this? (Market share, legalities, more trouble than it's worth?)

Don

[Darius Wey]

Hey - here's an opportunity for a third party! If someone could do for the Zune what MarkSpace and PocketMac do for Windows Mobile devices, that'd be great. Wonder why no one has stepped up to this? (Market share, legalities, more trouble than it's worth?)

Probably because Marketplace access would be very difficult to provide. I don't think syncing would be a problem, though.

[Adam Krebs]

Personally, I can't imagine what Microsoft would lose by making the Zune work with Macs

I think the main thing is that it'll add even more complexity to an already slow development cycle. They'd have to throw more resources into maintaining cross-platform compatibility, and, let's face it, the Zune software isn't exactly resource-friendly. Updates so far have been slow, and adding in another platform would likely worsen the problem. I can only hope that the reason that we haven't been getting any real features so far is that they're readying a huuuge update for fall '08 (a la 2.0 in fall '07).

[Macguy59]

This is where I'm not so sure...you'd almost need to do a survey at a big Mac-focused Web site and ask the users if they'd try a Zune if it was available on OS X.


Meh. Speaking only for myself I would consider a flash based Zune if it had a larger screen for playing video.

[Macguy59]

Admittedly, Apple makes an ecosystem that is hard not to buy into - everything works together pretty much flawlessly and seamlessly. And that really is the attraction that gets and holds you once you go Mac.

Bingo. No idea what % of iPod owners have the Windows version but that is really the target market for MS. Focus on turning that group before throwing resources at the remaining user base.