Blu-ray: The Future Has Been Delayed

[Suhit Gupta]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/blu-ray-the-future-has-been-delayed/' target='_blank'>http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/...s-been-delayed/</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>&quot;Hot on the heels of last week&rsquo;s report from ABI Research noting that many consumers may not see the picture quality difference between Blu-ray and standard DVDs comes the latest Blu-ray sales figures from NPD Group. And they&rsquo;re not pretty. According to NPD, sales of Blu-ray standalone players plummeted 40 percent from January to February, then rose a scant 2 percent from February to March. The general consensus was that once Toshiba dropped its support for the HD DVD format early this year, sales would increase. In fact, sales of Blu-ray standalone players remain so low that NPD has not yet released actual numbers, for fear that it would be easy to identify individual retailers. The research group will start to give actual figures later this year, said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis at NPD.&quot;</em><img border="0" alt="" src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/500/dht/auto/1209986855.usr14.jpg" /><br /></p><br />Interesting. This story bring a few thoughts to mind. Firstly, I wonder how many people are holding off on buying Blu-Ray players in light of the recent demise of HD-DVD. I think there may be uncertainty built into some people now given a number of us have heard stories about how HD-DVD owners were just recently left in the lurch. Second, it is possible that the expected rise in Blu-Ray sales were thwarted by the super cheap blow-out prices by retailers of their existing HD-DVD inventory (though I will admit that this is a weak reason). Third, maybe there is a corelation to the sales of PS3's? Or fourth, maybe it really is the fact that consumers are not noticing the difference between an upconverted DVD and a Blu-Ray disk. Either way, I think it is time for the Blu-Ray group to step up its marketing effort otherwise the whole next generation media war would have all been for nought.

[edgar]

Personally I think for the library of films available the current cost of a Blu-Ray player is a ridiculous expenditure. The upconversion isn't all that much better to make me want to change yet. I have a 7 year old Sony Reference DVD player that is just fine until the new players drop in cost - and its playing to a Kuro 5010 plasma.

[onlydarksets]

I agree - nobody wants to spend $400+ for a DVD player that their kids are going to use. Once it drops down to <$200, then the widespread adoption will begin.

[mcwilliams132]

I've stayed out of the HD DVD war because of the standard not being set.

But seeing that sales of Blu-Ray has fallen, the momentum doesn't seem to be there, the average Joe Schmoe not jumping on the bandwagon, and this war has gone on for a year; is there a risk of leapfrogging this technology altogether once the mainstream user is ready to jump to HD full heartedly? I think that may happen.

[Dyvim]

And all the people who got burned buying HD-DVD players (myself included) probably aren't quite ready yet to pony up for a Blu-Ray player. I can still rent HD-DVD flicks through Netflix and use my player as an upconverting DVD-player on regular DVDs. I only bought an HD-DVD player when they got really cheap during the pre-Xmas specials on Amazon. I'll probably wait for the same thing to happen to Blu-Ray, even if it takes a couple Christmases to happen- and even then won't commit if something better has appeared on the horizon by then.

[Rob Cannon]

I think its just a simple value proposition. I was able to get an HD-DVD player plus 10 or 12 discs for $250 last fall. Today, I can't even get just the BluRay player or even just the discs for that amount. And the BluRay player does not have all of the features that HD-DVD had.

Maybe when the BluRay spec gets finished and the players are in the $200 range, I'll look again. Also, I think I'll stick to renting instead of buying titles while the list price of most titles is in the $25-$35 range.

[Jeff_R]

One of the things that people can't lose sight of is that this is not the quarter that matters most; sales at this time of year are often flat, especially when one takes into consideration the state of the economy and gas prices, etc. If these were Christmas figures, then the companies would be panicking. Obviously, companies would always rather sell more product, but this is not unexpected. Lack of competition often causes a brief downturn.

[dtanderson]

I would not buy a Blu-ray player any time soon because they still do not have the spec finalized. It would be a waste of money to buy one now only to be outdated when the final spec is released. Everyone claims Blu-ray won when HD-DVD folded but Blu-ray has not won anything yet and could still end up being a flop just like laser disc was :)

[Reid Kistler]

Have read about the large number of "blu-ray players" that have been purchased - but that a good % of those are actually PS3s which are primarily used as game machines.
There was an article earlier in the year - which included PS3s as blu-ray players - that claimed LESS THAN 2 blu-ray movies had been sold for every player. Would seem that not a lot of PS3 owners are into hi-def dvds.

Then again, a lot of us who bought hd-dvd (or, presumably, blu-ray) are not convinced that the PQ improvement is All That Great in comparison to the $$ penalty involved. Sure, if you have a 60" screen that you sit 6 feet away from, 1080p probably makes a visual difference - but that is not the set up most people have in their homes.

We have found that many "up-converted" std dvds look Just Fine, thank-you.
(Actually, Plain DVDs on our old Panasonic player look Just Fine: the ones we have viewed via an up-convert look Excellent - and an Oppo up-convert does a better job yet!)
If you EXAMINE the screen you can probably pick out improvements - but once a movie begins most PQ differences tend to be ignored: we have only noticed a handful of movies where we said "Wow!," and that is normally only for a few scenes.

Also, most tv broadcasts are still low-def, 4:3 - and we even watch the odd VHS tape now & again: it will take a while to people to view less-than-hi-def as Totally Undesirable...
(OTOH, watching the Red Wings in hi-def and then moving to std def is Painful - and one can certainly argue whether cable / U-verse even IS "hi-def!" - so the Adjustment Period is not a fixed one...)

Overall, it is too early to say that blu-ray is NOT going to take off. Agree with the posts about Lower Pricing (hardware & software), AND wait until the end of the year to see what happens during the Big Spending Period...

We won't be jumping on to the blu-ray bandwagon for some time, although am not yet willing to say "Never...."

[Tim Williamson]

Just this weekend my dad and I were shopping at Fry's, since the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war is over he wanted to look at Blu-ray players. He ended up only spending $200 bucks for a Blu-ray drive to go in his Media Center PC, and he bought the Spiderman Trilogy ($65) for my mom as an early Mother's Day gift (we also got her some girly stuff so she was okay with getting something computer-related). ;)

The stand-alone players are still too pricey for the average consumer, and if you don't have a 1080P TV, then going hi-def really isn't worth it. I still have an old-fashioned tube TV, so a DVD player is fine for my needs (for now :) ).

And I didn't realize this, but there really is a HUGE difference in the picture quality between DVD and Blu-ray. I literally couldn't see any pixels/pixelation. One of the displays at Fry's had Pirates Blu-ray playing, and it literally felt like I was looking through a window.

The question is, what's the next step/leap in video technology going to be?

[whydidnt]

I'm in the camp that doesn't see sufficient difference between a standard DVD and Blu-Ray to justify the extra cost. It's not just the cost of the player, but the movies are also quite a bit more expensive.

When we transitioned from VHS to DVD, I saw a huge improvement not only in picture quality, but also in convenience. The discs didn't have to be rewound, you didn't have to worry about poor or worn tape that had tracking problems, they were smaller and easier to store, etc. All of these made the DVD experience worlds better than tape. Blu-Ray can only provide a better picture along with increased add-ons or extras. Most people I know don't even look at the extras on standard DVD's. Having more of those certainly isn't going inspire someone to spend the bucks necessary to change. Also, I think a lot of people classify a better picture as a nice to have, rather than have to have. I've shown lot's of friends HD channels on TV, but it hasn't always inspired them to go out and buy a new TV or to subscribe to HD programming.

I also think that there is a trend among the generation Y crowd to rely more and more upon online downloads. With Apple providing HD content via download, and announcing release the same time as DVD's I think more and more people are going to look at the convenience of downloads and move away from the hardware/disc model. In the past, it was often 20-30 year olds that would push new technology trends, now those people are downloading their content and probably aren't as interested in paying $300 for a player.

[Felix Torres]

BD is stalled for three simple reasons:

1- Pricing: consumers saw HD-DVD players go for well under $200 last fall and movies for well under $20. Sony and co saw fit to raise prices back up to $400 and $35 respectively in one fell swoop. And then let it be known they won't come down to $200 until late '09. If at all. Way to rub it in guys!

2- Spec-mania: the BD Spec is still not a finished product. And most players on the market are not upgradable. By now the word on the street is either get a PS3 or wait for BD 2.X players. Which, not coincidentally, likely won't show up until '09.

3- BD is stalled. Sony has lost format wars against zero opposition before. So when the press reports that BD isn't selling, wise consumers decide to wait until it sells. So BD stalls because BD is stalled. Which is a nice bit of turnaround cause BD was winning because the press said it was going to win, not on any technical merit.

Self-fullfilling prophecies run both ways.

It is not impossible that the real winner will turn out to be CH-DVD...

[makicr]

I have my PS3 and a handful of movies. I am doing my part.

[onlydarksets]

I disagree about needing 1080p for Blu-ray. In fact, I would argue just the opposite - 720p is more than sufficient to notice a stark difference between DVD and Blu-ray (we're talking a 3x increase in overall resolution), but moving to 1080p for most people won't result in any appreciable difference over 720p. If you have a large enough screen, of course, you will see the difference, but I don't think a 50" set is going to take advantage of the extra resolution.

[Jason Dunn]

Blu-ray is dead. Long live Blu-ray! :rolleyes:

It's funny how this all played out. I think one of the reasons I preferred HD-DVD was that it was the format that had to work harder to win because it was the underdog, and for that reason I think it ended up being a better overall format in terms of price, performance, etc. But it's dead, and in it's place we have Blu-ray, where:


The players are still quite expensive
The DVDs are still quite expensive (the REAL killer)
The spec isn't finalized

So, like many of you here, I'm going to wait a bit before throwing my $$$ into the ring - the player and movie prices need to come WAY down before I'll plunk down my cash.

[Felix Torres]

Here's a guy who really, really, really doesn't like the BD-eyed format...
http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/05/03/blu-ray-sales-tank-reason

Asbestos underwear recommended.:cool:

[Felix Torres]

Hey! Pioneer has two new, lower-cost BD players...
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9937405-7.html?tag=nefd.riv

And here's Panasonic's great Blu hope:
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9937997-7.html?tag=nefd.riv

:rolleyes:

Wonder how many of those they'll sell...