PDA Market On Its Last Legs?

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS20947607">http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS20947607</a><br /><br /><i>"The worldwide handheld device market posted its fifteenth consecutive quarter of decline in shipments, signaling either vendor intent to scale back production or exit from market entirely, or both. According to IDC's Worldwide Handheld QView, vendors shipped 728,894 handheld devices in 3Q07, approximately 1.5% more than the previous quarter but 39.3% less from the same quarter a year ago. "The handheld device market has been under constant pressure, with mobile phones and converged mobile devices appropriating many of the handheld's salient attributes," says Ramon T. Llamas, research analyst with IDC's Mobile Device Technology and Trends team. "Handheld product portfolios have suffered as vendors have reallocated their production resources."</i><br /><br />Palm remained the number 1 PDA manufacturer, but it is relying on its aged Z22, TX (both launched in Oct 2005) and T-E2 (April 2005) lines. HP, the number 2 manufacturer has more updated versions and even has some new devices coming out this fall that aren't converged devices. Regardless, these sales numbers pale in comparison to devices like Palm's Treo and the myriad of devices HTC is pumping out, most of which are available through various cell phone carriers worldwide.<br /><br />I suspect it won't be but a few more quarters when the non-cellular PDA will be a thing of the past, unless these features are embedded in a device that has some other primary function, like the Apple iPod Touch, a device considered an MP3 player first with some PIM functions built in.

[Don't Panic!]

That's a darn shame. I'm on the converged bandwagon now but I look back on my PDA/mobile phone combo fondly. I would love to get a phone as small as the t68i with a 3G data contract and hook that up to my Ax again or maybe one of those gps enabled PDAs with the big screens.

[smashie]

I've gone converged as well with an Orange SPV M700 (HTC something). I was clearing up at the weekend and found my old rx3715 and I was amazed at the size of the screen. I can't believe I've got used to something so small. If I could find a decent small phone with 3G and a fast PDA then I would deffinately go back to 2 devices.

Mark

[tnels!]

Let me start by saying I have found the Pocket PCs a great tool since my first Ipaq 3600. However, isn't what we all really want is a pocketable version of Windows Vista or Mac OS? Don't we all want to run 'full' version of Word and Excel on a pocket sized device? Don't we really want to have full Photoshop CS3 support when viewing images on true VGA small screen?

So, as PPC sales shrink, shouldn't the Ultra Mobile PC market start to take off? Is the technology there, (or almost there) to be able to put Vista in my pocket??

[Mark Larson]

I don't know why 3.5" screens almost totally vanished from the market, but hopefully the iPhone's 3.5" screen will goad HTC into bringing us a few thin-bezel bigger-screened phones.

[ADBrown]

So, as PPC sales shrink, shouldn't the Ultra Mobile PC market start to take off? Is the technology there, (or almost there) to be able to put Vista in my pocket??

No. At least not in any reasonable size, performance, or battery life.

The thing you've got to remember is that X86 processors require an order of magnitude more power than the ARM processors in PPCs, along with more storage for XP and apps, more RAM, greater screen resolution, etcetera...

I'd love full XP compatibility, but when the smallest UMPCs are 4-6 times the size of my Axim, and sporting a whopping 2-3 hour battery life along with the need for active cooling, it's not very practical. Particularly when they start at $600 and run up to $2000.

[cgavula]

I think the decline in the PDA market is based on 2 things:

1) Manufacturers focusing energy and resources on their converged devices over their non-converged devices.

2) Nothing truly new being offered in the PDA (non-converged) arena for several years now.

The PDA market thrived on the continual growth and change - better screens, faster processors, more memory. There has been nothing really new offered for some time. I believe there's still a market for these devices that is evidenced by the fact that Axim x51v and HP hx47xx series devices still command a premium on eBay and sell near their original price (sometimes higher). Additionally, there was a LOT of net traffic surrounding HPs new 200 series in that it offered the first advancement in the non-converged space in some time (albeit a series of small, but significant improvements).

Convergence has left us with a series of underpowered, disappointing devices, and there is some level backlash now to move back to 2 separate devices just to regain the horsepower we lost.

I believe the end result is that the PDA market may see a slight resurgence when the 200 series is released and is likely to last beyond the next few quarters, albeit not in the numbers seen in years gone by. For a variety of reasons, there is a continuing need and market for those devices.

--Chris

[eugarps]

All,

I hate to say it but I still have my HP200LX with a double speed 32MB chip. Besides it own PIM interface, which is pretty good, it sports MSDOS 4.2! It runs old versions of MS Word really well and has Lotus 123 built in. It truly is a Pocket PC rather than the WinCE wannabes. It has enormous battery life (On 2 AA batteries. No waiting for LIon to come out with a bigger battery!), in some measure, because it has no back light, no WiFi, and no radios. I can, in a pinch, hook it up to dialup and surf the web and check emails with relative ease.

For a 12 year old machine, it offers a lot of what we're now asking for. Remember the good old days before the code bloated OSs we're forced to use now? I can still use lots of the vertical market DOS based software I used then for Civil Engineering. I can even run COGO software for surveying on it!

My $0.02,

Bill

[crimsonsky]

I'm still using my hx2415 and Loox 720 because I find PDAs to be far more functional for me than a converged device. Of course, my SDA is a smartphone, but I don't even use the Smartphone functions of it because they are just too limited compared to what I can do on either of my PDAs. I am VERY interested in the HP 200 series devices and definitely plan on getting one when they are finally available.

Convergence just seems to involve too many compromises, and I'm seriously considering replacing my SDA with a Plain Jane dumb phone since I only use it as a phone anyway.

The iPhone seems like a move in the right direction for convergence, but at this time, it is too limited (no 3rd party apps without hacks for now) and I'm not willing to change carriers for it (again, I know there are hacks, but not interested in hacking my phone).

For me though, for now, my PDAs serve a function that smartphones can't address and I'll keep using them as long as they're available. I have three batteries for my hx2415 and I've had it for close on to 2 years now and it's still running strong.

Don

[sundown]

Well I guess I'm in the minority then. I love my Dell Axim x50v and carry it lots of places. But often I leave it behind when I don't need all that functionality, like at my kids ball game. I don't want to carry a cell phone that's big and clunky. And the smart phones I've looked are too small. I don't want to hold my PDA up to my ear and I don't want to read my email on a cell phone screen. I guess that leaves me hoping my Axim x50v will last me a long time.

[cab124]

Well I guess I'm in the minority then. I love my Dell Axim x50v and carry it lots of places. But often I leave it behind when I don't need all that functionality, like at my kids ball game. I don't want to carry a cell phone that's big and clunky. And the smart phones I've looked are too small. I don't want to hold my PDA up to my ear and I don't want to read my email on a cell phone screen. I guess that leaves me hoping my Axim x50v will last me a long time.

I love my Axim x50v as well. I depend upon it continually. But I have to admit, I often wonder what it would be like if my cell phone was built into the x50v so that I didn't have to carry a separate device. I wouldn't want to sacrifice any of the functionality in my Axim, I just want to add a phone.

But it seems that most of the time, when this type of convergence is designed, the first thing to go is the VGA screen. That is where I jump off.

[Hosidax]

It's OK with me.

I always wanted a converged device. I remember telling my friends how much I wished my iPaq3650 had an internet connection and a cellular phone chip installed... and thinking "one day, one day -- yes!"

I'm glad we are finally there and that now the industry (with the help of Steve Jobs and Google) is just working on improving the experience.

Really, I think the most important questions of the future are:

1) Will we still have good choices between a powerful PDA with phone features and a phone with some PIM features? (I hope so, I'll always choose the former, but my girlfriend will want the latter.)

2) To what will Jason eventually have to re-name "Pocket-PC Thoughts"?

[virain]

Good-bye PPC, :cry: Hello UMPC! :lol:

[Deslock]

The early Palms were successful because they were small, lightweight, responsive, and had elegant and simple interfaces. Since then, cell phones have been able to provide some PIM functionality, more people have laptops, and PMPs have become popular. There isn't as much need for PDAs, which have also faltered a bit by offering mediocre experiences for wifi connectivity, web browsing, and media playback.

[SteveHoward999]

I still use my Toshiba E830 daily. I have 12Gb of storage using a 4Gb SD card and 8Gb CF card :-)

Mostly I use it for books, movies, larger documents I want/need to carry.

For a phone I use either my Nokia E62 or Nokia 6682. Both are 'fully featured' pda/phones, allowing me to carry calendar, contacts, video, music, books and more (2 Gb memory cards). Both have GPS support through Bluetooth. With different keyboards and screen sizes, and the 6682 having a camera, I switch them about according to need or whim.

I much prefer the E830 because of the fantastic screen. But I can live with either of the Nokias for day-to-day use, as they let me do everything I do with the E830, with only a few compromises. Wi-Fi is probably the main thing I lose with the phones.

[bvkeen]

I am heartened that HP is staying with the market, and was really glad to see Jason's unboxing of the HP 100 today.

I have a converged device (BlackBerry now, of all things, along with a Dash), but still use my x51v and I don't see parting with the latter.

[phmurphy]

I collect data in the field with my PDA and I would love a slightly bigger screen. I hope the PDA is around forever. A better outdoor screen would be nice and I guess the speed is over 800 with the Trimble NOmad with a Marvell CPU. PDA's are quirky and WM6 is slightly retarded in so many ways that that could be the real problem. There are lots of fixes to WM6 problems such as the dumb inability to actually close a program normally, or see file extensions. Lots of cheap and easy fixes for these problems though.

Long Live PDA's. It's not just a toy, it is a valuable tool for science in my opinion.

[Don't Panic!]

I don't think stand alone PDAs will go away all together. It's just the consumer market that's being affected. Just a couple of days ago I was watching the news and a researcher was using an iPaq in a phaser looking scanner rig to check for lead paint in toys. I seriously doubt anyone would want a phone call to come through while they're doing something like that. So Enterprise will always get their PDA fix. THe problem with that is Enterpise PDAs are usually priced way over our price range or only sold in big batches.

[disconnected]

THe problem with that is Enterpise PDAs are usually priced way over our price range or only sold in big batches.

And also that they tend to take out the fun stuff. I'll probably buy the iPAQ 211 if it ever gets here, but I wish it had GPS and even a camera. :(