Jason and Dave's ThoughtCast - April 26, 2006

[Dave Conger]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/thoughtcasts/jasondave04262006.mp3' target='_blank'>http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/tho...ave04262006.mp3</a><br /><br /></div>One question on many people’s minds lately revolves around the current state of the Pocket PC. Releases of disconnected Pocket PC devices (those without cellular wireless) have been declining and recent rumors have been that companies like Dell plan to discontinue their Pocket PC product lines. HP has upgraded some devices while discontinuing others and putting emphasis on their new connected devices. So what is going on with Dell and what could be happening to the Pocket PC market? In this ThoughtCast Jason and I hash out our thoughts on what might be going on and where we think the market for Pocket PC devices has the potential to go.<br /><br />Direct Link to this show: <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/thoughtcasts/jasondave04262006.mp3">Download</a><br />RSS Feed: <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/xml/thoughtcast.xml">PPCT ThoughtCast Feed</a><br />Support the Show: <a href="http://www.podcastalley.com/podcast_details.php?pod_id=8303">Vote @ Podcast Alley</a><br /><br />And if you have comments about the current state or future of the Pocket PC market, we would love to hear your thoughts. Talk back to us about this ThoughtCast or your other thoughts. Skype users can simply place a call to <i>thoughtcast</i>. If you don't have Skype, just call: (425) 296-2462.

[GSmith]

Thanks for fixing the enclosure mp3 URL attributes. It looks like they're working now for aggregators.

Greg Smith
Author, FeederReader - Pocket PC *direct* RSS text, audio, video, podcasts
www.FeederReader.com - Download on the Road

[Patrick Y.]

Great, interesting discussion!! :D Great job!

[Gerard]

A bone needs picking, I think. I've watched as what were previously known as 'connected' Pocket PCs - those with built-in Wi-Fi and/or Bluetooth radios - have faded from the connected limelight, as some flavour of cellular telephony has supplanted those, making phone devices the only 'connected' machines. It's weird. Especially so while I've simultaneously watched several other phenomenaa:

- While still in the early stages, more and more US and Canadian cities are looking at going city-wide wireless, either free or for a small fee. Seattle, some place in Florida, Atlanta... and lots of buzz in the past 6 months for Vancouver.

- Saturation of private-but-open Wi-Fi is ever increasing, so it is becoming absurdly easy to grab email or a couple of webpages while out for a walk down a residential street. Coupled with growing numbers of free and paid wireless connections at coffee shops and other business, this is patching together a fairly comprehensive quilt, if not blanketing the cities.

- Wi-Fi built-in is more prevalent than ever among PDAs, even some of those with cellular radios. For those devices without built-in 802.11b, an even better Wi-Fi radio/antenna can be added via CF or SD card, for less and less money all the time.

- Awareness of and subscription to the burgeoning marketplace of VoIP services is growing fast, making for the very real possibility of competition on even ground with cellular services within the next little while. Why buy into a severely limiting cellphone contract, when you can take your phone anywhere in the world and use it via Wi-Fi for a flat rate per month? I sense that cellphone providers will soon be scrambling to match VoIP deals, and the sticking points will be map coverage (cell advantage) and bandwidth (this one goes to VoIP/Wi-Fi devices).

The convergence of private/open Wi-Fi and city-sponsored Wi-Fi blanketing is emerging as virtually inevitable. Before too many more years go by, urban centres will be internet zones for anyone who can afford an enabled device - and with the minimal cost of a 'ticket' dropping below $300, this seems likely to encourage mobile device use. Of course it'll similarly encourage notebook use, as most notebooks now include radios as well, but really, how many people will ever want to carry a notebook around, everywhere they go?

I agree, have for a couple of years, that an all-in-one device is a desirable thing. Cellular phones should be in PDAs for those who want this. Personally I've not yet had a PPC stable enough to inspire confidence for use as my main phone. As an accessory phone, a novelty, sure, but with cellular data plans still being absurdly expensive in Canada, my enthusiasm in that direction is nil. Mobile Wi-Fi for the PDA with a small, reliable cellphone separately just makes more sense. I've had 2 Casios (well, 6, if you count all the warranty replacements), 2 iPAQs, a Dell, and a Toshiba. None have been able to go more than a day without a soft reset, and in most cases it's been several resets per day, just to keep things running smoothly. Add a cellular phone overlay and things can only be less stable... or is my logic flawed? Come on, be honest. There are always a tiny minority for whom these devices go weeks on end without instability issues. These are usually folks who've installed a couple of games, who never use the browser, and for whom word processing on the PPC means entering a few words into a contact's Notes field, or maybe editing a memo in Pocket Word.

What I'm suggesting is that you don't count the non-cellular PDA out just yet, and not just for your theoretical 1 out of 10 users who would otherwise carry a Franklin Dayplanner. As awareness of mobile internet access for browsing and email becomes ever more wide spread, expect interest in the larger-screened PDAs to increase. It may be a bumpy line on the graph, but I suspect it'll rise in the longer run. Of course the UMPC may have some relevance here, if Bill's stated vision of a $500 pricetag comes true within the decade.... but I'm not holding my breath for that one. Could happen, but it's more likely that the sellers will want to grab all the cash they can, splurging on expensive advertising and ooh-aah accessories to keep the market buying at a higher price. Look at the iPod. Still insanely expensive for what it does, yet still selling like hotcakes. It's consimer awareness coupled with clever advertising which makes the grade today, not functionality. And awareness of PDAs is rising.

[Stik]

As awareness of mobile internet access for browsing and email becomes ever more wide spread, expect interest in the larger-screened PDAs to increase. It may be a bumpy line on the graph, but I suspect it'll rise in the longer run.

I agree, and IDC ( fwiw ) seems to be leaning in the same direction in their ' forecast.'

"A decline in shipments following the holiday quarter is expected of mature markets, and the handheld devices market is no different. After nine consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline, many are wondering how long this trend will continue, and whether the market will see a reverse," says Ramon Llamas, research analyst with IDC's Mobile Markets team.

"IDC believes that the market will eventually hit a size where the rate of year-over-year decline will slow to a sustainable level. That size has yet to be determined, but will be sustained by the core users of handheld devices as well as the enhancements found on these devices."

http://www.electricnews.net/news.html?code=9682743

Very interesting podcast and discussion gents, thanks! I've been wondering for awhile what Jason's thought were on this issue, now I know. 8)