Jason and Dave's ThoughtCast - October 28, 2005

[Dave Conger]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/thoughtcasts/jasondave10282005.mp3' target='_blank'>http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/tho...ave10282005.mp3</a><br /><br /></div>At the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference back in April of this year, Bill Gates announced that he was working on a product called <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=357932">Ultra Mobile 2007</a>. This new category of device cause Jason's eye back when he posted the story and finally he and I have spent some time talking about it in the latest Pocket PC Thoughts ThoughtCast.<br /><br />Show notes:<br />• The Concept of Ultra Mobile 2007<br />• Mobile Thin Clients<br />• Devices Fitting Specific Needs<br />• A Scratch Pad Device<br /><br />Direct Link to this show: <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/thoughtcasts/jasondave10282005.mp3">Download</a><br />RSS Feed: <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/xml/thoughtcast.xml">PPCT ThoughtCast Feed</a><br />Support the Show: <a href="http://www.podcastalley.com/podcast_details.php?pod_id=8303">Vote @ Podcast Alley</a><br /><br />TalkBack about the Ultra Mobile 2007 and your concepts for an ideal device. Skype users can simply place a call to <a href="callto://thoughtcast">thoughtcast</a>. If you don't have Skype, your phone works as well, just call: (425) 296-2462. Also, If you like the Pocket PC Thought's ThoughtCast, make sure you support the show by voting for it at <a href="http://www.podcastalley.com/podcast_details.php?pod_id=8303">Podcast Alley</a>.

[surur]

Finally a podcast I can disagree with!

I do not think, in the neat future (5 years +) we will be getting rid of our portable electronics in favor of ubiquitous computing. Ask yourself this question - will we still have cell phones? If the answer is yes, why not carry your portable computing needs with you, instead of depending on a public resource which may or may not be available. This is directly analogous to the cell phone vs public pay-phone phenomena. Despite pay phones being relatively available, especially where people congregate, and also quite cheap, people preferred to pay $600 per year to carry their own device, on the off chance some-one wanted to phone them.

I think the "throw away device" scenario just reflects concerns regarding screen size. This may be solved by foldable screens or projection screens, which is technology which will be needed in any case to create cheap ubiquitous devices in any case.

I think how the future will work is that we will carry thin, small, light devices with fast WAN connectivity. These devices will definitely be our phones. They will also do everything else, because eventually we will get convergence right.

I believe the failure of PDA's to catch on has nothing to do with cost, as this did not stop cell phones from catching on, or more recently Ipods. Its simply that they did not make a sufficiently compelling case to the general population. WE know these devices can do anything that these other very successful devices can do, but we also know they do it poorly, with poor usability, and poor marketing. The focus remains on business, but Ipod's and cell phones are sold to consumers, and are very successful because of this. To sell to a consumer the devices should be task based, not application based. It should have persistent storage, and a lot of it. It should start with a page which says Music, Video, Contacts, Calender, Internet, IM, Navigation, etc, instead of the business focused today screen. The devices need to look good (and I'm not talking business sleek)

To end with, portable computing will end in convergence, and may still be ruled by what we call PDA's, but to sell to the general population they need to be done a whole lot better.

Surur

[Gerard]

That's an excellent observation regarding the Today screen's inappropriateness for the average person looking at one in a store. The Today screen as marketed by Microsoft and the OEMs is dull, no matter how it's skinned. Where is the compelling, enthralling, and yet practical window into all that a PPC can be? I don't agree that a PPC does tasks poorly or weakly. Sure, the Microsoft apps are rather weak, but they're getting better with every iteration. And it's easy to find and install any number of better programs. Slightly harder to install them to a card, to save RAM (though this has become irrelevant with WM5.0), but still not rocket science.

It seems to me that one of the most guilty parties here is Microsoft, for the way they've stuck so rigidly to their stodgy UI entry point. If they'd allow for some third-party plugins, even license them for inclusion, that'd go a long way towards selling the average consumer on a device.

When I see people browsing electronic devices in shops it's a lot like people in art galleries where the average painting or sculpture gets 2.5 seconds' consideration. They pick it up, poke at it, and get bored and walk away. The odd mischievous kid will make a few voice recordings or add a bogus contact entry. That's it. Less, if the device has so many applications loaded into RAM that it's slowed down or locked.

Toss in Gigabar or Wisbar to enhance the top taskbar. Add a plugin like PHM's to the system tray to show loaded apps. Make over the Today screen with any of a dozen great overlay apps, and fill it with nice icons shortcutting to all the ROM applications. Add some sound to the mix, with a kiosk-style MP3 running in store display mode, something reasonably current looping quietly. If this stuff and more fun can't be in ROM, give sales managers SD cards loaded with self-extracting clone installs, a la Sprite Clone, so they can at least make the floor models attractive. That'd give potential users something in the way of a fast demo of some of the things a PDA can do these days.

Now as for the ThoughtCast... no. I disagree rather sharply with this Jetson's-like vision of the semi-disposable computing future. people cling to toasters for years, and you think they're going to just toss PDAs like kleenex? I realise that's a bit of a stretch from what you guys said, but do you really imaging that consumers are going to not only be so affluent in nature but also so different in habit?

We like to own things. It's a cardinal feature of modern man. Ubiquitous computing might be in our future, but give it decades or centuries, not just around the corner. Embedded LCD panels are cropping up in SUVs, dentist's ceilings, grocery checkouts, airline seat backs, lots of places. Many of these rely on advertising revenue from looping advertisements to justify the cost. Sure, prices come down, but enough to make for a dozen or more devices in every home? Unless it's the Gates residence I think not likely.

I think it's far more likely that we'll see a gradual mainstream acceptance of converged devices, such as PDA/cellphone hybrids. AV-out, whether wireless or wired, will probably be a favoured feature, with everyone wanting to share their latest video masterpiece with friends and family on the big screens. Just jack in the phone and hit Play, and watch it on the 60" plasma screen. Embedded cameras will keep getting better, wireless connectivity will increase in bandwidth making most wired links irrelevant, and media is a lot of what will drive the market just as it does now. People want pretty pictures and tunes, hence the iPod's success.

Hackers both private and governmental are getting better all the time. Having a bucketload of wirelessly-connected devices lying around the home or office with all data accessible through any one seems an invitation to attackers. It's true that security applications improve, but fast enough? Human error is a huge factor here, with back doors being left open all the time, computers being misplaced (witness 700+ employees' notebooks going missing from the Canadian federal government!), and installation/upkeep of anti-virus and other protective software being hit and miss. People still, amazingly, broadcast business passwords via post-its and verbal disclosure.

Containment seems a wiser path than ubiquity, in my opinion. Keep it in one place, make backups, and make the device simple to use. Keep the package small enough to keep with the user most of the time. Make it able to feed media to dumb screens with a tap or two, via Bluetooth or other short-range connections, range being a great security measure for most applications.

In terms of Bill's daydream 2007 machine, I'll believe it when I see it. Tablets have largely failed to capture the popular imagination. A smaller but still un-pocketable tablet might draw student's attention and get some sorts of business users interested, but the bulk of consumers will probably find it inconvenient... especially those with smaller hands. I'd very much like to see a greater range of PPC screens, but feel that the practical maximum for a non-folding/non-rolling screen is about 6" diagonal. The thing he showed last winter was just too big for general, carry-everywhere use. Remember, many find even a small PPC too big (go figure).

A range of device scales from about QVGA 2.5" to VGA 6", with half a dozen steps all told to suit every taste, that's a more sensible strategy. Give them 20+ hours of battery life, make them no thicker than half an inch, round off corners for comfort in hand and pocket, generally iPod-ize the things to suit the people's taste for things less geeky looking. Why are so few PDAs actually nice to look at? Is softly finished coloured plastic so expensive? My Casio EG-800 was on the right track. Rounded, easy on the eyes, even though it was a brick it appealed automatically to everyone I passed it. Instead we get batch after batch of ugly chromed monstrosities, appealing mostly to those weaned on Transformers aesthetics. To sell, these things have to appeal at all levels, not just business functionality.