Russell Beattie on the Future of Mobility OS

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.russellbeattie.com/notebook/1008610.html' target='_blank'>http://www.russellbeattie.com/noteb...ok/1008610.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Okay, I’ve had an opinion change I’d like to announce. I’m betting that the future of mobility will be Linux, and not Symbian, Windows or anything else. This is quite a change from my previous pro-Symbian stances, but I’ve been sort of leaning this way for a while - or rather, leaning away from Symbian as it fails to live up to its potential - and now I’ve finally come to a religious change of faith when it comes to mobile OSes."</i><br /><br />Will Linux prevail over Windows for mobile devices? Sounds like a tall order to me. I personally have nothing against Linux. I think it's a terrific OS. However, it's been out there for over 10 years and for each of those 10 years, I've continually heard bold predictions regarding Linux that have never materialized. The mobility market is certainly in flux with Microsoft, Palm, Symbian, and Blackberry all having their share of supporters (though I will argue that the majority of Symbian users actually chose it because of the device and not the OS). The arguments that Russell makes in favor of Linux just sound all too familiar to me. Will this be any different? Am I missing his point? Check out his article and give us your thoughts!

[jickbahtech]

I think people go where the hardware is.
If a compnay released a Linux mobile device that somehow got adopted by the "cool" community (like the sidekick did for a while), then it'll make a dent.

[mscdex]

I for one love my Zaurus SL-5600. The built-in hide-able keyboard is a godsend when I have to type anything. This is one of the major features I'd love to see in a pocketpc (preferrably Dell). The other plus I like about my Zaurus is I can install my choice of linux distributions, and even run the entire OS from an SD or CF card.

Don't get me wrong, I still love my x50v, but I just think if pocketpc (not ppc phones or smartphones, but pocketpcs) manufacturers would get more creative as far as hardware features (namely hide-away built-in keyboard) they might get more people to switch or want to buy new devices.



My $2

[whydidnt]

While the article makes interesting points - I think he puts far too much emphasis on the MS "tax". His argument for Linux sounds a lot likes Palms recent reasoning for moving to Linux - support of a large developer community. However, like the previous poster said, a majority of people could care less what OS their mobile device runs - people buy hardware and features, not the underlying OS.

I personally think that Linux is still too complicated for most of the world to deal, and doesn't offer enough standardization, with all of the various releases to be able to become the dominant player in the mobile market.

[PPCRules]

... Will this be any different?
No.

There is no one to push Linux. Microsoft has the muscle to push all it feels is worth their while. Sure, Linux will get a small following even without someone pushing, largely from the ABM mindset. But it can't match something out there that someone is putting money into pushing. Symbian doesn't have comparable ability to push and Palm certainly doesn't (they kinda fell into it's one-time market "dominance" and just slid along from there; they never learned about push). (The same "lack-of-push" factor is what has and will hold desktop Linux back, but at least there you have a common platform.)

I think people go where the hardware is.
I think people go where the software is. Applications, that is. Mobility is much more than cell phones, and apps will matter. Apps is what Microsoft now has in PDA, is getting in smartphones, and will be a small step away from for other mobility devices.

Thirdly, I have no idea who Russell Beattie is and why I should listen to him.

[mscdex]

I personally think that Linux is still too complicated for most of the world to deal, and doesn't offer enough standardization, with all of the various releases to be able to become the dominant player in the mobile market.

I have to disagree with that. I think the opposite is true for both the desktop and handheld platforms. I am seeing more and more distributions becoming more and more user-friendly and conforming to standards.

The standard ROM that my Zaurus 5600 came with was just as easy to use as Windows Mobile or Palm or any other popular handheld operating systems. You would never have known that you were running linux. The same goes for the Open Zaurus ROM (even changing to different ROMs/distributions is very easy! No linux command knowledge needed!).


My $2

[ADBrown]

I doubt that Linux will ever have a significant share of the market. In the mobile space, there's no unified version of the OS to form a de facto standard. That means there isn't a coherent interface that's valid across brands and models, no single API to guarantee that all programs work on all models, and no organized range of features. All that translates to a disorganized platform that can barely work with itself, let alone anything else. If Linux has any future in the mobile world, it's as a base layer for a better OS, like Apple did with using a BSD core for OSX.

[Sven Johannsen]

You would never have known that you were running linux.

There's an interesting endorsement. If I can't tell that I'm running it, or what I'm running, why would I care what it is in the first place? That's valid IMHO across all the Phone OSs.

I agree with the comment that the vast majority of cell phone users could care less about the OS that runs on their phones. They go for the Carrier and what they offer, what is 'cool', what their friends have, and maybe even listen to what the thing is supposed to be able to do, other than make phone calls. Messaging, media, and playing games is high on that list, not keeping calendars and reviewing powerpoint presentations.

As far as software apps making the phone, I'd be surprised if 5% of the billions of cell phones out there have ever had anything loaded on them beyond a ring tone or background. Those additional apps that are loaded are most likely those that can be grabbed at the carrier's web page.

I'd like to see MS smartphones live long and prosper, but I think the trick is getting the carriers to sell them, not get the public to want them.

[mscdex]

You would never have known that you were running linux.

If I can't tell that I'm running it, or what I'm running, why would I care what it is in the first place?

What I meant was, I think most people would think that linux on a handheld would be extremely complex, and involving lots of command-line typing, and whatnot. When this is not the case.

Literally, you will you know you are running linux in various ways (System info, various familiar applications that have desktop counterparts, perhaps some will recognize the qt/e or opie UI, or even the tux/penguin graphics!). ;)

[ricksfiona]

If Linux could be viable on the Pocket PC platform, it will be years from now if ever and it won't get to the masses either. Why would a multimillion dollar corporation create hardware for an OS that doesn't have the roadmap that another company has put out there. Really it's not going to happen.

I don't care if my Pocket PC is running Windows, MAC or Linux. What I care is whether I can play my MP3 files, watch my converted DVD movies and read my eMai. I want to do this in a relatively crash free device. Only hard core tech heads give an ounce of damn what OS their device is running. No one else cares.

[Kevin Daly]

While the mobile version of Linux is by all accounts a fine operating system, the fact that Russell starts from the assumption that you mustn't consider Windows Mobile because Everybody Knows Microsoft Is Evil, Spitttttt!!!! makes this particular discussion utterly worthless.

Personally as a developer I think there's room for everybody: J2ME for what it's worth will work on all sorts of platfoms, and as a .NET developer I'll happily target either or both of the .NET Compact Framework for Windows Mobile and Mono for Linux.
Can't we just for once get beyond this 12-year old boy's obsession with who's the best/biggest/strongest/richest/whatever?

[Phillip Dyson]

I can believe that Linux may be the mobility platform of the future, but not because of its strengths or others weaknesses.

It could get their simply because all the other platforms will simply become linux. Look at PalmOS.

Perhaps one day the Symbian guys will look around for a way to reduce their development and maintenance costs. "Hey lets swap out our kernal for a linux kernal and let the community take care of us."

It'll be the whole growth via acquisition strategy.

Then only MS will be the last hold out.

[Len M.]

Our experience, after having developed a piece of hardware for PDAs and having tried mightily to provide a Linux driver for PDAs, is that Linux won't ever succeed on PDAs until HP, Dell or some other major PDA manufacturer decides to really support Linux.

Over the last five years HP and Dell have both had R&amp;D efforts to host Linux on their PDAs. Unfortunately those efforts were poorly funded and staffed. That situation will not improve until their corporate customers demand Linux. They will not demand Linux until Linux is so easy to use that their average corporate IP support person can support it and their average end-user can use it. The chances of either/both of those happening is almost nil, despite the significant cost savings that using Linux instead of Windows (with its licensing fees) could bring them.

Linux is still a hacker OS -- ("hacker" in the old sense of techies who love to dig deep into an OS's innards). The average person simply can't make it work.

And even the experts can't get audio to work on HP iPAQs running the experimental Linux/Familiar distribution. A most-telling situation about why Linux won't succeed is that the Linux kernel, distribution and development people can't (and won't) agree who's responsible for seeing to it that it's fixed.

At least Microsoft can get things done eventually. With Linux, there's no reason to expect that any specific bug, no matter how serious, will ever get fixed.

[d-roC]

Linux is still a hacker OS -- ("hacker" in the old sense of techies who love to dig deep into an OS's innards). The average person simply can't make it work.

That is a major step for the desktop version, but probably not for the mobile version. Handset makers hate to know that the OS can be as tweaked with, and thats where the in house OSes have made a killing. The problem is that in-house, they cannot get features and cmopatability that a linux-based platform offers. The taks here would be if that hurdle can be jumped.

If Access is as good financally as (some) want to think, then it would be safe to think they could leverage teh PalmOS and ChinaMobileSoft to creating an appropriate Linux platform that will server carriers (and therefore make us buy).

Until someone in the Linux camp can bring it all together (UI, drivers, time to market, etc.), Linux on mobile devices will be a niche and nothing too importatnt to be though about compared to Symbian and WM.

[Phillip Dyson]

Until someone in the Linux camp can bring it all together (UI, drivers, time to market, etc.), Linux on mobile devices will be a niche and nothing too importatnt to be though about compared to Symbian and WM.

Until Symbian decides to become a linux variant like PalmOS. Then its all Linux + WM.

Maybe its far fetched, but when it comes to robustness and development/maintenance cost reduction turning to the Open Source community seems to be pattern.
Only MS has the financial muscle to take the market by brute force.