Ultra Mobile 2007: Gates' New Pet Project?

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,122032,tk,dn072905X,00.asp' target='_blank'>http://www.pcworld.com/news/article...n072905X,00.asp</a><br /><br /></div><i>"In April, at the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference, Gates announced that he was considering pushing a potential rival portable computing platform into the market called Ultra Mobile 2007. In remarks posted on Microsoft's Web site, Gates said he envisioned Ultra Mobile 2007 as a new category of device that would cost between $800 and $1000, and weigh as near to a pound as possible. These devices would have a consumer friendly bent and would integrate a camera, a phone, and a touch-screen, and offer music and video playback functions along with very long battery life."</i><br /><br />8O Could Bill Gates manages to promote everything else <i>other</i> than Windows Mobile. He's never seemed very big on Pocket PCs and Smartphones, I think largely because he probably has an assistant that does everything for him that we use our Pocket PCs and Smartphones for. Converged devices make too many sacrifices, and I just don't believe the technology is there yet to achieve something like the Ultra Mobile 2007. I want my phone to be a phone - a <i>small</i> phone. I want my camera to be a camera. What's your take on it?

[jkendrick]

As powerful devices get more and more mainstream I find they are taking over the PIM type functions that have historically fallen to the PDA realm. People don't buy the expensive Sony U or OQO to do PIM functions, the expense doesn't make sense for that. But they are buying these UPCs to do their real computing tasks and since they also do PDA type functions very well they are supplanting the PDA with these devices.

You're right though, MS never seems to promote their stuff very well. I guess that's OUR job. :)

[yanathin]

I once had an iMate JAM, and I ended up selling it. It just tried too hard to be too many things...

I have a Sony Ericsson W800i (2mp camera, 512mb storage Walkman MP3 player) and an hx4700 right now. Sure, my phone can take great pictures, but I still have a seperate camera whose sole purpose is to be a camera, and nothing more. It could also be my MP3 player, but I still have an iPod, dedicated to be only an MP3 player. My Pocket PC could be an emulator for GBA games, but I still have a GBA. Anyway, my point is that even though decives have all these extra features packed into it, I still use each device for its main purpose. I use my phone to call people, my Pocket PC to organize and browse the internet, my camera to take pictures, and my iPod to play music.

If you think about it, cell phones are the only things trying to be more than what they really are. I don't see Canon adding MP3 players or phones to their cameras. Apple isn't making an iPod phone. In fact, Motorola is making a phone with iPod features (the ROKR). There is no way the ROKR will ever be as good as an iPod.

[caubeck]

The biggest obstacle is battery life.

If every call I receive reduces the life of my PDA, or if every time I use the camera I have to worry about whether I'll have enough power for the phone and PDA and MP3 for the rest of the day, I'd rather pass on convergence devices for the moment.

The day will come when kids will say "did you really have to carry four different machines in your pockets all day when you were small, daddy?" and Batman's utility belt will be a mere fly button, but not till the battery problem is solved.

[Fritzly]

I don't know if Bill Gates has an assistant and if this is the reason why he does not like Pocket PC; I know that I have one and I am not crazy about it. Why? Because Pocket PC can't replace my Filofax agenda and although I have a Tablet PC I consider it a replacement for my laptop not my agenda. Smartphones are OK but again they are not a replacement for my agenda. This device could be. What eventually will be ditched is the Pocket PC.
This link to MS press has a picture of waht these kind of devices could be:

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2005/apr05/04-25WindowsThirdDecadePR.mspx

Personally I like the concept; Now if they could bring me one of these devices sooner I will be able to skip "Universal" but I this is just a wish, I know it will take longer.

[WyattEarp]

I don't mind a converged device being a PDA &amp; cell phone because it makes more sense. The phone book features in a PDA are far superior to that of a cell phone so it works well together when done right. But adding cameras, MP3 players etc. really starts to take away from the usability of the device because of the compromises manufacturers make. When they stop making comprises maybe then we will really start seeing some truely great devices. And as far as Ultra Mobile 2007 is concerned it will just make and already small and confusing market even more confusing.

[vinodis]

I once had an iMate JAM, and I ended up selling it. It just tried too hard to be too many things...

too sad that convergence didn't work for you. i am having great fun writing this while listening to ipod quality music on my xda mini. cam is still good enough for a quick snap . there is nothing much to wonder why phones try to take lead in convergence because thats what i keep with me most of the time:-):-).

[DaleReeck]

I think the reason Bill Gates doesn't promote Windows Mobile and Smartphones is because they just don't make that much money. At least not yet enough for BG to care. I think because we hang out in places like these, we tend to think that PDAs and Smartphones are everywhere. But they aren't.

I work at a major university in the IT department. We have very technical people, some of the best in the business. Yet, I am one of the few that have a PDA and one of the fewer that have a PDA phone (a Samsung I730). None of my family has a PDA. Nor do many of my friends. The truth is, the number of people using PDAs and Smartphones is very small. When industry people talk about the popularity of something like the Treo 650 as being "high", it's still only a very small percentage of cell phone users. I read somewhere that the last two Verizon PDA's - the VX6600 and I730, have sold 20,000-30,000 units. Sounds like a lot except when you figure that Verizon has about 45 millions cell phone users - a value of about 6 1/2 percent. Not a staggering number IMO.

So why do companies like HP churn out PDA's and Microsoft keep producing OS's for them? Because they do still make some profit (even if not a lot), probably due to high margins. Its just a guess, but I think its a reasonable estimate.

I also think they stay in the business because of what PDA's could become in the future. Seven percent isn't a lot now, but once true broadband services like EVDO come into wide use and Smartphones become easier to use and more stable (especially in the phone part), Smartphones will become a more popular choice and that percantage will grow.

[Airscanner]

Too late,

I've already reserved the domain:

onepound-converged-mobile-device-THOUGHTS.com

[bvkeen]

I'm with Jason on this. I tried the converged route with a Treo but turned it back into Cingular and got a Nokia 6230. I tried displacing my iPod with my x50v (which has the same audio chip, I am told, as the 3G iPods), sold my iPod, but bought another one (just bought it today, in fact).

A lot of folks seem to like convergence, but for me the converged devices are somewhat compromised.

So now I'm back to using the x50v for PIM and internet (this post included).

[surur]

Our friend Mr Kirvin is a huge fan of these devices, but as Engadget says:

Even when/if it does come out, the Ultra Mobile PC will still fall squarely into the no-man’s land of portable computers—it’s too big to fit in your pocket and too small to serve as your main machine.
http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000830041475

I agree that pure play PDA's are in danger of annihilation by PDAphones, but if you need data on the go PDAphones (not smartphones) will be a major opposition and competition to this device. If you add a phone to it you will have to carry it everywhere to receive phone calls. Where are you going to keep it while walking down the street? Will all men now carry handbags? Desktop software will be poorly suited to the small screen and slow processors.

Tablet PC's are selling poorly, and if BG thinks making them smaller will make them sell better he is fooling himself.

The Tablet PC market is due to grow from $1.2 billion in 2004 to $5.4 billion in 2009
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,122032,tk,dn072905X,00.asp

This part is actually the most amusing. PDA's/PDA phones are already making as much as this NOW. Are these more expensive, more unwieldy devices supposed to supplant them?

Surur

[Typhoon]

The camera on UPC is at least good as a webcam, right?

[ADBrown]

Yes, brilliant, because EVERYBODY wants a one-pound cell phone the size of a novel, and it'll be so easy to carry in the super-reenforced piton-anchored pockets that we'll have by then. :deadhorse:

For being a genius, Gates sure can be an idiot sometimes. If he wants to dedicate R&amp;D to something, build better batteries, or try to create a solid-state XP handheld. Something USEFUL.

I too am a member of the non-convergence bandwagon. I simply see too many sacrifices in current converged devices. There's no PocketPC phone that matches the functionality of my Axim X50v, and I'd do things with a phone that I would never consider doing to my Axim.

[Paragon]

Well for a guy like Bill Gates, who probably has a 72" Plazma TV in every room, a PPC with a 2.8" screen has to be a real disappointment. ;) I don't know what Bill's problem is with Pocket PCs. I'm not sure he can say the words. I've never here them come out of his mouth. He will say PDA, or phone, but not Pocket PC...Yet clearly MS is putting a lot of weight behind the future of mobility, and making sure it all ties into a Windows PC.

Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC or laptop. To carry something of that size around you need some sort of bag to put it in, so why not carry a full functioning laptop?

We are never going to see a killer portable device, because everyone's portable needs are different. Pocket PC will work for some. Smartphones will work for others, and laptops will be needed for others as well. I just don't see where something like this fits in. Where are the advantages? What is gained by having a bigger device compared to a Windows Mobile device, or a smaller device compared to a laptop?

Dave

[Kevin Daly]

It's true Gates never has much to say about the Pocket PC (and I have always sadly regarded that as evidence of a lack of interest in or commitment to the platform), but I have read interviews featuring him talking effusively about Smartphone.

And that's the issue I think: I am guessing he sees a bright future for Smartphones but none for the Pocket PC as we know it. in this case with regard to the devices under discussion we should think less "converged device" and more of a device based on downsized and updated Tablet PC technology (including touch screens, which I believe they plan to add to tablets at some stage) with a simpler interface that's aimed largely at the space currently occupied by the Pocket PC, with room for taking up some more as well.
None of this should come as any surprise to anyone who attended or read reports of the Computing On The Beach panel discussion at PDC 2003: I think the Pocket PC has essentially been regarded as a "placeholder" until a more complete version of Windows could be implemented practically in a similar form factor.

This is actually a good reason for developers to start targeting the .NET Compact Framework once version 2 becomes available: while an OS shift is normally bad news for existing software, I think there's a very good change that when and if this new class of device is introduced, software written in the .NETCF version current at the time will run on them with few if any problems (and now would probably be a good time to start letting Microsofties know that this is what we would like to see).

There's already evidence of even non-.NET based convergence for mobile devices: the new SQL Mobile database engine that is to replace SQL CE will run on the Tablet PC.

[caubeck]

Hmm, but these new wafer-thin screens that Toshiba is making might surprise us all. Perhaps in the future we'll be carrying "scrolls" more than blocks.

In any case, I agree about the size of these new designs. Does Gates envision hoards of businessmen with briefcases? Or kids with satchels?

It's great to think that whatever the future, it's highly likely it won't be long in coming.

[jlp]

...the last two Verizon PDA's - the VX6600 and I730, have sold 20,000-30,000 units. Sounds like a lot except when you figure that Verizon has about 45 millions cell phone users - a value of about 6 1/2 percent. Not a staggering number IMO.
...

Pardon me but it rather looks like it is 0.65%,not 6.5%...

[Tim Rapson]

Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?

Question # 2. What task will such a device perform that an HTC Universal can't already perform?

Answer #1 Well, not PSion, not Poquet, not Atari Portfolio, Not Laser PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4....., not AlphaSmart, Not Quikwriter, Not HP subnotebooks that ran Windows or PocketPC, not Apple Newton, not Zoomer, Not HP Omnibook, not Sharp Wizard, not......well you get the idea. There is not going to be a successful product like this one. It's silly to think so. Bill Gates has no clue how to create any original product. He never has done so and never will.

Answer #2. Well, the HTC can phone home, has a keyboard (and will work with a folding full-sized Stowaway) has the music, the video, the VGA screen, will work with docs (just like a desktop via TextMaker). No, it's true that it won't run your desktop software, but there are so few task that are proviced by some small programs still on shelves that are not replacable with PPC apps. This will effect very few people. In fact, it is just as likely that these small market Windows desktop programs are too old to run properly on such an oddly configured piece of hardware anyway. To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.

The entire concept is very silly.

[Typhoon]

Hmm, but these new wafer-thin screens that Toshiba is making might surprise us all. Perhaps in the future we'll be carrying "scrolls" more than blocks.
... and start wearing Egyptian style clothing...

[Typhoon]

To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.

The entire concept is very silly.

Yea, I think the same thing as well. Until the UPCs can easily fit in customers' pockets, turn on and off instantly, and run at least 5 hours on a charge, then I can see them possibly replacing PDAs... but I doubt that will happen. PDAs will always be around. They are the only devices that can provide pure PDA functionality, and I think that will remain for at least the next 7 years. I can't imagine an UPC that is shrunkin to the size of the H4155 w/a keyboard. Can anyone else?

[DaleReeck]

...the last two Verizon PDA's - the VX6600 and I730, have sold 20,000-30,000 units. Sounds like a lot except when you figure that Verizon has about 45 millions cell phone users - a value of about 6 1/2 percent. Not a staggering number IMO.
...

Pardon me but it rather looks like it is 0.65%,not 6.5%...

OK, no more math in my head for me. Next time, break out the calculator :D

Bu it actually proves my point even more. Less than 1% might as well be zero.

[Cantab Rich]

I think Mr Gates might be on to something...but he's not quite there yet. I'm a professional, and I travel to work and to local clients with a soft briefcase. My dream device is actually an ultra-thin blackberry with a keyboard, a widescreen, and sensible MS Word and MS Excel capability. Which is all most professionals need while on the road.

My XDA II is fine, but not perfect. My dream device is as follows:

1. thin (RAZR like, but I would settle for 0.9cm)
2. about 15cm x 10cm (about the size of those portable DVD players, but shaped in widescreen mode)
3. key board
4. UMTS and WIFI (but I'd settle for just UMTS)
5 no hard drive, running Mobile 5 or Mobile Ultra
5. either a compact flash slot or, pehaps, express PCI slot (for memory expansion/peripherals.

This device is slim (=sexy), connected (=blackberry style push email, probably via Exchange 2003) and useful. When I visit clients, when I'm on the road, when I'm on a plane, I'm connected to my email and my documents. I have adequate multimedia capability via Windows Mobile 5, but frankly that is a bonus.

OK, having read this again, perhpas I am talking about an XDA universal, but in a different form factor. I want it wider, so I can type with my fingers rather than my thumbs, and slimmer (so it takes up no more space than a normal sze paper notebook in my briefcase). Is this too much to ask?

[OneAngryDwarf]

I agree for the most part about keeping devices separate but I think we will see a convergence w/ a twist. Mobile phones are desired to be small. This does not lend itself towards other uses such as input and media viewing. A PDA is better for these things but not great for gaming because of the button layout and such. What will happen is that the mobile phone will become a sort of hub or server for storage and computing. Then we will carry dummy/terminal devces such as a PDA like thing or a gaming device which will wirelessly access everthing from the mobile phone. Consumer-grade cameras will however be integrated into phones when lens tech goes internal as some new cameras are already doing (Sony's newest). Eventually the hub will become an internet based service rather than a physical device on a person but network coverage will first have to reach near 100% while connection speeds surpass even 3G speeds. This is my vision of the future and I believe it to be much more practical than Billy-boy's.

[Paragon]

I think Mr Gates might be on to something...but he's not quite there yet. I'm a professional, and I travel to work and to local clients with a soft briefcase. My dream device is actually an ultra-thin blackberry with a keyboard, a widescreen, and sensible MS Word and MS Excel capability. Which is all most professionals need while on the road.

My XDA II is fine, but not perfect. My dream device is as follows:

1. thin (RAZR like, but I would settle for 0.9cm)
2. about 15cm x 10cm (about the size of those portable DVD players, but shaped in widescreen mode)
3. key board
4. UMTS and WIFI (but I'd settle for just UMTS)
5 no hard drive, running Mobile 5 or Mobile Ultra
5. either a compact flash slot or, pehaps, express PCI slot (for memory expansion/peripherals.

This device is slim (=sexy), connected (=blackberry style push email, probably via Exchange 2003) and useful. When I visit clients, when I'm on the road, when I'm on a plane, I'm connected to my email and my documents. I have adequate multimedia capability via Windows Mobile 5, but frankly that is a bonus.

OK, having read this again, perhpas I am talking about an XDA universal, but in a different form factor. I want it wider, so I can type with my fingers rather than my thumbs, and slimmer (so it takes up no more space than a normal sze paper notebook in my briefcase). Is this too much to ask?

What you may want to try is a sub-laptop with a 10" screen. They fit in a briefcase nicely, and are full function Windows PCs

http://www.technoworld.com/productdisplay.asp?ProductID=20847&amp;source=kelkoo

[Paragon]

Then we will carry dummy/terminal devces such as a PDA like thing or a gaming device which will wirelessly access everthing from the mobile phone.

Maybe you will. ;) I hate carrying more than one device, I'm not going to carry a phone to connect to several different devices...it just ain't gonna happen. :) I'm not a geek. I don't look like a geek. I don't wear geek clothing, and I don't carry girlie bags to carry all my stuff. If it doesn't fit comfortably in my pocket, it stays home.

[Typhoon]

Hey how about this? Ultra Mobile is in fact WINDOWS VISTA or WINDOWS XP? But built to run on ARM CPUs? So you can have UPCs w/out the power hungry x86 CPUs that they keep trying to reinnovate, save battery power, space (no fan or heatsink), and save space for a thinner UPC? So all software companies have to do is to recompile Windows XP software for the ARM CPUs?? Because I know that it will always be a problem to make UPCs portable, right? This maybe the ultimate solution...

[jlp]

...
Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC...

Really? I don't think so :

http://www.abaxas.ch/divppc/oqo-imate-jam-desktop.jpg

[Fishie]

Hey how about this? Ultra Mobile is in fact WINDOWS VISTA or WINDOWS XP? But built to run on ARM CPUs? So you can have UPCs w/out the power hungry x86 CPUs that they keep trying to reinnovate, save battery power, space (no fan or heatsink), and save space for a thinner UPC? So all software companies have to do is to recompile Windows XP software for the ARM CPUs?? Because I know that it will always be a problem to make UPCs portable, right? This maybe the ultimate solution...

ARMs dont have the horsepower to run such complex operating systems

[Typhoon]

...
Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC...
Really? I don't think so :


But do you actually have an OQO? The OQO is .9" or 1" thick. That is very thick to put in the pocket. It makes an unattractive bulge for most people. I had a Sharp Zaurus c860 before. That one has a large 1" thick cynlider for a hinge, and the rest of its body is .85". I was never able to stick that in my pocket...

[Typhoon]

Hey how about this? Ultra Mobile is in fact WINDOWS VISTA or WINDOWS XP? But built to run on ARM CPUs? So you can have UPCs w/out the power hungry x86 CPUs that they keep trying to reinnovate, save battery power, space (no fan or heatsink), and save space for a thinner UPC? So all software companies have to do is to recompile Windows XP software for the ARM CPUs?? Because I know that it will always be a problem to make UPCs portable, right? This maybe the ultimate solution...

ARMs dont have the horsepower to run such complex operating systems

lol, really? Are you sure?

[jlp]

Hey how about this? Ultra Mobile is in fact WINDOWS VISTA or WINDOWS XP? But built to run on ARM CPUs? So you can have UPCs w/out the power hungry x86 CPUs that they keep trying to reinnovate, save battery power, space (no fan or heatsink), and save space for a thinner UPC? So all software companies have to do is to recompile Windows XP software for the ARM CPUs?? Because I know that it will always be a problem to make UPCs portable, right? This maybe the ultimate solution...

You're joking, right?!!

You'd need a 10 THz :P ARM CPU to cope with XP or even more so Vista's bloated code. Just looking how s-l-o-w my 400 MHz Axim can be at times, even compared with my 450 MHz Pentium III notebook. And it only runs 98SE. I dread the thought I would have to install XP on my TravelMate :evil:

[Paragon]

...
Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC...

Really? I don't think so :



Whoops! You missed this part:

are too big to fit in your pocket

The OQO demonstrates very well how this form factor is not popular. The OQO still hasn't taken off in sales....its too small for a decent PC replacement, even tough it handles most PC functions, AND it's too big to fit in your pocket. ;)

Dave

[jlp]

...
Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC...
Really? I don't think so :

But do you actually have an OQO? The OQO is .9" or 1" thick. That is very thick to put in the pocket. It makes an unattractive bulge for most people. I had a Sharp Zaurus c860 before. That one has a large 1" thick cynlider for a hinge, and the rest of its body is .85". I was never able to stick that in my pocket...

Yes I know about the OQO size. MOST of my past PDAs have been quite larger than the Model 01, most notably ALL of my Apple Newton MPs and I allways carried those in my jacket pocket.

[jlp]

are too big to fit in your pocket

Dave YOU missed this part :
http://www.abaxas.ch/divppc/oqo-imate-jam-desktop.jpg

The first pic, besides an OQO, clearly shows an iMate JAM, THE smallest PPC; and the Model 01 has nothing to be ashamed of in terms of size!!

The OQO demonstrates very well how this form factor is not popular. The OQO still hasn't taken off in sales....

Ah, you MUST have OQO sales figures I ignore then... How much did OQO sell Model 01 units, so to be called "not popular"?

its too small for a decent PC replacement...

Size has NOTHING to do with functionality; connect it to any desktop peripherals and the OQO will behave like any desktop CPU (bar optical drives, which you still can connect to, and bar raw speed.) Plenty enough power and capabilities for 95% of all desktop tasks for 95% of all users 8)

... even tough it handles most PC functions, AND it's too big to fit in your pocket. ;)

Dave

AND contrary to what you say, it's NOT too big to fit in my pocket as it is quite SMALLER than most if not ALL the PDAs I carried there for over TWO decades now!! :p (obviously NOT in the same jacket and NOT at the same time tho :wink: )

***Double quote edited by moderator JD: Please edit down your quotes, thanks.***

[Typhoon]

Hey how about this? Ultra Mobile is in fact WINDOWS VISTA or WINDOWS XP? But built to run on ARM CPUs? So you can have UPCs w/out the power hungry x86 CPUs that they keep trying to reinnovate, save battery power, space (no fan or heatsink), and save space for a thinner UPC? So all software companies have to do is to recompile Windows XP software for the ARM CPUs?? Because I know that it will always be a problem to make UPCs portable, right? This maybe the ultimate solution...

You're joking, right?!!

You'd need a 10 THz :P ARM CPU to cope with XP or even more so Vista's bloated code. Just looking how s-l-o-w my 400 MHz Axim can be at times, even compared with my 450 MHz Pentium III notebook. And it only runs 98SE. I dread the thought I would have to install XP on my TravelMate :evil:

lol oh ok. But is sounds like a neat fantastical idea, right? Oh well, maybe someday.

[Typhoon]

Does anyone KNOW what this UM2007 is??

[jlp]

Does anyone KNOW what this UM2007 is??

The knowledgeable Japanese site PC Watch reported it's an OQO prototype :twisted:.

[Cantab Rich]

Paragon: thanks for the link to the Sony - I was looking at it on Friday here in Singapore. The problem is, it is bulky - it tries to be a full PC. (Toshiba 's Libretto is the same).

I was thinking of a downsized version of the NEC/Toshiba super slim computers, but without the computer complexity. A PPC has most of the functionality required by a professional on the road. Why not make it more useable (by having a subnotebook style keyboard), connected (UMTS) and sexy (super slim)? The Univesal is a step in the right direction - it could be enhanced by squishing it outwards into a super slim but slightly wider and longer form factor[/quote]

[Gerard]

Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC or laptop. To carry something of that size around you need some sort of bag to put it in, so why not carry a full functioning laptop?

Why not a laptop? Because the smallest, lightest laptop has a stupidly small keyboard unless the user is a 10-year-old with small hands. Because a laptop gobbles batteries. Because a laptop still weighs at least 2 pounds, like a big.Kryptonite bike lock or a Super Big Gulp, where a 1 pound device is half that and therefore something many people would be more likely to carry more often.


We are never going to see a killer portable device, because everyone's portable needs are different. Pocket PC will work for some. Smartphones will work for others, and laptops will be needed for others as well. I just don't see where something like this fits in. Where are the advantages? What is gained by having a bigger device compared to a Windows Mobile device, or a smaller device compared to a laptop?

Have you ever shown a document to a non-PPC person, on your PPC screen? If so, have you experienced the small embarrassment of watching them 'zoom in' with their head, squinting perhaps, then start almost right away looking for how to scroll down? What about the.even more embarrassment attempts at watching a video clip with another person, that's fun. Lots of jockeying around, trying to see whether the second person can really see clearly at that angle... usually they'll grab it from my hand within 10 seconds, or worse, look away and change the subject after some vague comment about how cool it is that my 'palm pilot' can play video.

A bigger screen, minimum 6", is something I've had my fingers crossed for since 5 years ago. Pocketability? I don't care. What's wrong with a slim and well-designed little bag? There are thousands of excellent camera bags, well made and cheap. All this vaguely homophobic crap about 'purses' and 'manbags' is rather childish. Gimme a connected, high-performance device with "all day battery life" (from the keynote, B.G.'s words) and a nice 64-bit 7" screen and colour me happy. Toss in a stylish and clever bag to carry/operate it in and I'm sure a big chunk of the buying public will hop aboard.


Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?

Does there have to be a successful precedent? No, only a great design which really works, at a fair price.


Question # 2. What task will such a device perform that an HTC Universal can't already perform?

To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.

Well, to many the teensy screens on the HTC or other converged devices are just silly. What you can 'do' is see bigger, prettier images, text, and video. It's a converged device, but it's also a media-focused device. People are spending a lot of billions on TVs, bigger ones all the time. They're sacrificing living space for a nicer picture. Doesn't this sort of market seem to cry out for a more user-friendly screen scale on a portable computer/PDA?

[Ed Hansberry]

Even when/if it does come out, the Ultra Mobile PC will still fall squarely into the no-man’s land of portable computers—it’s too big to fit in your pocket and too small to serve as your main machine.
http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000830041475

I agree that pure play PDA's are in danger of annihilation by PDAphones, but if you need data on the go PDAphones (not smartphones) will be a major opposition and competition to this device.
Completely agree. newton sized devices with the power of XP/vista will have limited use. For everyone to have one, it has to fit in your pocket, easily.

[Gerard]

This recurring theme is bothering me a little. Since when does everyone have to buy a thing to make it a huge success? I don't know anyone, at all, who owns an iPod. I have a client list of over 500 musicians, and since the iPod came out not one of them has shown up in my shop dangling white earbuds or sporting anything remotely resembling an iPod. I'd seen a few minidisc recorders for recording sessions informally, a few more small MP3 players such as the MPIO and other ultra-mini types, but not a single iPod. No one in my extended family seems interested either, and none of my friends. I have yet to see one in my neighbourhood, while walking around or out at a favourite lake for a run with lots of other runners. Many ultra-slim CD players and some older Walkman-type thingies, along with the odd arm-band-mounted very small MP3 player, but still, no iPods. I have seen a few downtown, among the fashionable people who want to be seen to have the right things. But all that said, Apple is making a killing off the things and the music to supply them. Universality is hardly a prerequisite for success when the population is so massive.

If they sell only 1million of these things per year, a reasonable estimate once a few OEMs get busy producing and promoting them, then the overall take is $800million spread between the various parties involved (if the street price is taken as $800, as B.G. suggests for a lower end). Not too shabby. Better than a kick in the pants, and considering the investment in development and promotion are unlikely to be higher than $10-$50million it's looking pretty good. Not enough to seriously impact Bill's bank account of course, but then what is, really.

I don't own a cellphone. At least half the people I know don't own cellphones. Does that negate the extreme profitability for cellphone makers? And that's with a mature product, not a new device type. If this ultra mobile thing worked out it could easily fetch 10% of cellphone penetration levels in 10 or 15 years and that would be a tidy profit for all involved.

I don't have a car, don't want one, never have. Are car makers going out of business because of guys like me? Sure, for a PPC user it seems I am a bit of a Luddite, but what I am trying to emphasize is that people buy what they want and/or need, and finding the right product for niche markets is becoming more and more important these days for corporations to survive. Call it boutique marketing, something like that. Catering to the needs of many but not all is not a fatal strategy. It may just be the better one, as consumer education accelerates and fewer want to be just one of the borg.

[Typhoon]

This recurring theme is bothering me a little. ...what I am trying to emphasize is that people buy what they want and/or need...fewer want to be just one of the borg.

I was going to say some of the same things, but I think most people know this alreay...

[Paragon]

it could be enhanced by squishing it outwards into a super slim but slightly wider and longer form factor[/quote]

Bingo! Just like a HPC...Handheld PC which got dumped. I agree, if you are going to build a Universal type of device, why not go all the way, give it a bigger screen, and more typing room. Perhaps that is going to close to the "it's too big for the pocket, too small for a PC replacement"....round and round we go. ;)

Dave

[Deslock]

So why do companies like HP churn out PDA's and Microsoft keep producing OS's for them? Because they do still make some profit (even if not a lot), probably due to high margins. Its just a guess, but I think its a reasonable estimate.
Has Windows CE ever had a profitable year for Microsoft since it came out in 1996? The last chart I saw posted by Ed Hansberry showed that even with CE's revenue jumping 45% from 2004 to 2005, it still was $46M in the red (but that's a lot better than $219M in the red for 2004).

So unless I've misread the chart, direct profit has not been part of Microsoft's motive for sticking with CE/PPC/WM (rather they've committed resources to the PDA market because there were potential threats there to their overall business model).

I dunno how much profit HP has made with their CE/PPC/WM devices.

[Deslock]

The technology for some tasty 1-pound devices is there: the Panasonic R4 (http://www.dynamism.com/r4/index.shtml) is a 2.2-pound laptop with a whopping 9-hour battery life. Ditch the keyboard, replace the 2.5" hdd with a 1.0" hdd (or flash), use a smaller screen, smaller battery, slower CPU, and a leaner OS and you could get down to 1-1.2 pounds with decent battery life. Likewise, take the Sharp Zaurus SL-3100 (http://www.dynamism.com/sl-c3000/index.shtml), add wireless and slap in a bigger battery and screen and you could have a robust device that weighs about a pound with decent battery life.

[saru83]

I agree with u guys that this device is almost useless, but everything depends on personal needs, u konw... it might be targeted to a specific market... may be you, you and you dont like it, but there might be someone there waiting for a device like this, right!!... so we dont like it.. doesnt matter... it will still have its fans... :wink:
Regards,
Sarwat

[Typhoon]

The technology for some tasty 1-pound devices is there: the Panasonic R4 (http://www.dynamism.com/r4/index.shtml) is a 2.2-pound laptop with a whopping 9-hour battery life...

Are you sure it has a 9 hour battery life? That's what the specifications say. From my experience, the specs. are from manufacturers who exagerate the battery life.

[surur]

I think what people generally disagree with is that this class of device will take away a large part of the PDA market. Its a competitor, but the overlap isn't very large. PDA phones are a much bigger threat. It compared well with the battle between smartphones and PDA phones.

Surur

[Cantab Rich]

Paragon, Deslock, thanks for your comments. The present offerings out there (whether Sharp, Panasonic, or even the Nokia Communicator) are too thick to be sexy and too big for my dream machine.

I dream of a device no bigger than a paper notebook, and no thicker either. By using a notebook-like shape, it becomes immediately accessible to the older, more affluent, generation of professionals, who might be comfortable with the concept of a laptop, but not with these newfangled PPC things. (There are many at my work who find the PPC too stressful to learn - and some of them are not much older than 40).

By using a super-slim form-factor, it becomes possible to slip my dream machine into a handbag or soft briefcase. By using UMTS, coupled with blackberry functionality, it becomes possible to access emails on the move or in a cafe. By limiting the device to a zero spindle form factor (no hard-drive, no DVD drive) its cost is kept down. By using Windows Mobile 5, its functionality is limited, but adequate for most 40+ executives who have no need for the power of a fully-fledged notebook.

I own a Thinkpad T42 and when I go on holiday, the T42 is hugely over-spec'ed for the way in which I use it (i.e. checking and responding to emails; occasionally reviewing documents and commenting thereon). My needs are no different to the needs of thousands of other professionals. I wish I could get someone at an OEM to listen to me!

[muqtaliff]

I think the reason Bill Gates doesn't promote Windows Mobile and Smartphones is because they just don't make that much money. At least not yet enough for BG to care. I think because we hang out in places like these, we tend to think that PDAs and Smartphones are everywhere. But they aren't.

I work at a major university in the IT department. We have very technical people, some of the best in the business. Yet, I am one of the few that have a PDA and one of the fewer that have a PDA phone (a Samsung I730). None of my family has a PDA. Nor do many of my friends. The truth is, the number of people using PDAs and Smartphones is very small. When industry people talk about the popularity of something like the Treo 650 as being "high", it's still only a very small percentage of cell phone users. I read somewhere that the last two Verizon PDA's - the VX6600 and I730, have sold 20,000-30,000 units. Sounds like a lot except when you figure that Verizon has about 45 millions cell phone users - a value of about 6 1/2 percent. Not a staggering number IMO.

So why do companies like HP churn out PDA's and Microsoft keep producing OS's for them? Because they do still make some profit (even if not a lot), probably due to high margins. Its just a guess, but I think its a reasonable estimate.

I also think they stay in the business because of what PDA's could become in the future. Seven percent isn't a lot now, but once true broadband services like EVDO come into wide use and Smartphones become easier to use and more stable (especially in the phone part), Smartphones will become a more popular choice and that percantage will grow.

I fully agree with DaleReeck's comment. PDAs and Smartphones are still not as mainstream as plain mobile phones (CDMA/GSM/GPRS/WAP only with basic address book and SMS). Only the technically elite use PDAs and Smartphones :wink:

[surur]

A win Ce slate pad with a 7 inch 800x600 screen and day long battery life could be brought to the market today. It would probably not meet with a lot of consumer acceptance however, unless its marketed very well to assuage people's fears and concerns regarding usability and software compatibility.

Surur

[Deslock]

Are you sure it has a 9 hour battery life? That's what the specifications say. From my experience, the specs. are from manufacturers who exagerate the battery life.

My experience is the same as yours: battery life ratings are optimistic. My point was that while most &lt;4-pound laptops are getting "real world results" of 1.5-3 hours, there is a 2.2-pound laptop running XP that realistically gets 4-7 hours (depending on usage, obviously).


***Double quote edited by moderator JD: Please edit down your quotes, thanks.***

[Typhoon]

A win Ce slate pad with a 7 inch 800x600 screen and day long battery life could be brought to the market today. It would probably not meet with a lot of consumer acceptance however, unless its marketed very well to assuage people's fears and concerns regarding usability and software compatibility.

Surur

If they sold it for $400, I could see people buying it. At $400, it could be a good laptop replacement for those who just want to use it for the internet, etc.

[Typhoon]

The technology for some tasty 1-pound devices is there: the Panasonic R4 (http://www.dynamism.com/r4/index.shtml) is a 2.2-pound laptop with a whopping 9-hour battery life...
Are you sure it has a 9 hour battery life? That's what the specifications say. From my experience, the specs. are from manufacturers who exagerate the battery life.
My experience is the same as yours: battery life ratings are optimistic. My point was that while most &lt;4-pound laptops are getting "real world results" of 1.5-3 hours, there is a 2.2-pound laptop running XP that realistically gets 4-7 hours (depending on usage, obviously).

Ohhh I see. Some hours back, something came to my mind. Speaking of UPC technology. Has it really got that much better? I heard of this type of technology that was at least buildable back in the 90s. Sony had built and released the DVD-case-sized U1 laptop back in, I think, 2001 or 2000. Eversince then, I haven't really noticed any improvements really. I think there has got to be a MAJOR improvement in the CPU and battery technologies to make UPCs more portable, but has anything like that come buy so far??

[Tim Rapson]

[quote=Tim Rapson]
Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?


Does there have to be a successful precedent? No, only a great design which really works, at a fair price.


Well, when there are so very many unsuccessful precedents, yes there would have to be at least one successful precedent before I would bet 1 penny on this one, they would be about 0% chance that this new one will succeed. It is like saying, "Yes, gravity has always caused objects to fall to Earth, but if you had a really great design......." That is silly.




Question # 2. What task will such a device perform that an HTC Universal can't already perform?

To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.


Well, to many the teensy screens on the HTC or other converged devices are just silly. What you can 'do' is see bigger, prettier images, text, and video. It's a converged device, but it's also a media-focused device. People are spending a lot of billions on TVs, bigger ones all the time. They're sacrificing living space for a nicer picture. Doesn't this sort of market seem to cry out for a more user-friendly screen scale on a portable computer/PDA?

Now, there you have a good point and I have often experience you frustration at sharing a video or document. I think the problem is more that the person is insecure about breaking your PDA or uncomfortable about the social sharing of such a small view so close to someone. I suppose a mid-sized model might solve that, but I would need that so rarely. I just don't see someone spending twice as much as a laptop or PDA to get a feature set between them. It is possible, but all the evidence says you are a consumer market of one sale. Or maybe you can buy one and Bill can buy the other. Hope you have the amount of money he does, because those two models are going to be very expensive.

[Jason Dunn]

Since when does everyone have to buy a thing to make it a huge success? I don't know anyone, at all, who owns an iPod...I don't own a cellphone. At least half the people I know don't own cellphones...I don't have a car, don't want one, never have.

Gerard, surely you understand that you don't fit into the "average" demographic? I'm just the opposite of you - I don't know anyone who doesn't have at least one of the three: mobile phone, iPod, car. I can't think of anyone that I know without a mobile phone, and in many cultures people have more than one. I think it's a bit narcissistic to paint a picture where you classify yourself as "the norm" when you're definitely not. ;-)

You're right in one sense though: not every product needs to sell to 90% of the market to be a success, but it DOES need to sell enough to justify its existence in the market, especially if it requires a lot of R&amp;D to accomplish.

[Gen-M]

I dream of a device no bigger than a paper notebook, and no thicker either. By using a notebook-like shape, it becomes immediately accessible to the older, more affluent, generation of professionals, who might be comfortable with the concept of a laptop, but not with these newfangled PPC things. (There are many at my work who find the PPC too stressful to learn - and some of them are not much older than 40).

Have you looked at the Flybook (http://www.flybook.biz/?section=home&amp;lang=en)??

Sounds like it would meet your desires (and maybe your needs 8) )


***Long quote edited by moderator JD: Please edit down your quotes, thanks.***

[Jason Dunn]

By using a super-slim form-factor, it becomes possible to slip my dream machine into a handbag or soft briefcase. By using UMTS, coupled with blackberry functionality, it becomes possible to access emails on the move or in a cafe. By limiting the device to a zero spindle form factor (no hard-drive, no DVD drive) its cost is kept down. By using Windows Mobile 5, its functionality is limited, but adequate for most 40+ executives who have no need for the power of a fully-fledged notebook.

Here's the thing: no one is going to pay $1000 for a device unless is runs full Windows. What killed the HPC platform was cost; most of the devices were $800 to $1000 USD, and when laptop prices started to come down people looked at getting a laptop for $1500 or an HPC for $1000, and most picked the laptop. Even though HPCs had all sorts of advantages over laptops back then (thinner, lighter, long battery life, instant on) it seems most consumers didn't care as much about that as compatibility with 90% of the mainstream computing world.

I think the HPC-style device running Windows Mobile may see a comeback, but not for a few more years, and not until component prices come down even further.

[Gen-M]

As many have already pointed out, what we have here is a tension between what we are willing to carry everywhere and the ergonomics of typing and viewing. the "guts" can now be compressed into a package smaller than an OQO. Its the keyboard and display that need to be larger to be comfortable to use for long periods of time (or to share displays with others). Cell phone users (more in Europe than in N.A.) have recognized the benefits of I/O separated from the device using wired/wireless headsets. Equivalents for keyboard and display exist, but are not socially acceptable, yet (Headsets were not acceptable just a few years ago :) ). More alternatives are under development.

I have been a PPC user since 2000. I currently use two on a regular basis. They will not replace my laptop because they can not run full Windows software. It is not economical for devlopers to develop for multiple platforms.

When an affordable PC the size of an OQO (or smaller) with usable detached peripherals comes on the market (and it already has, except for the affordable part :wink: ), I'll be first in line.

I don't know how many units OQO has sold. I do know that they have had a hard time catching up/keeping up with the demand.

My interpretation of Bill Gates announcements is that, with the response to the Sony U50/70 and the OQO, Bill figured that the train had already left the station and Microsoft had better get out in front to make people feel that it was leading/driving the train. Good Marketing. :devilboy:

[wkspear]

I am one of the people who prefer to keep camera, mp3 player, pda etc.separate, but I've never thought myself typical. Even owning a pocket pc makes me a minority. I do think convergence will squeeze out market share for pdas as the now exist. All the concerns about battery life and costs will turn out to be for nought: it's like saying in 2000 that no one will buy flash cards because a mere 16 mbs costs over a hundred bucks.

Convergence can go well beyond what we've been discussing. We may even circumvent the need for traditional batteries in the forseeable future (maybe not 2007). Bill Gates is probably right to ignore the pocket pc. I don't like that thought, but I acknowledge it. We have only begun to use the potential of micro and nano technologies. What's WindowsMobile in the grand scene of digital tech?

[twalk]

Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?


Does there have to be a successful precedent? No, only a great design which really works, at a fair price.


Well, when there are so very many unsuccessful precedents, yes there would have to be at least one successful precedent before I would bet 1 penny on this one, they would be about 0% chance that this new one will succeed. It is like saying, "Yes, gravity has always caused objects to fall to Earth, but if you had a really great design......." That is silly.


I remember back way back when there were several companies all trying to make a PDA sized device. A huge amount of money flooded into the area. All of those companies failed.

Even Apple, with their award winning Newton, failed.

When Palm entered the market, everyone though they were insane. No one thought that the market would fly, and especially not with the underpowered and overpriced piece of cr** that the original Palm Pilot was.


Serious money is often made by those who do things that others think impossible.

Todd

[twalk]

The thing most people are not talking about here is money. Money, money, money.


MS is losing money on PDAs. HP is losing money on PDAs. Reportedly, Dell may be making a very tiny profit on PDAs.


These companies are NOT in the business of losing money. The reason that BG doesn't ever talk about PPCs is because PPCs are just a little negative blip on the balance sheet that he doesn't think will ever amount to anything.


People here have been giving a lot of great reasons why PPCs are better than potential competing devices in their niche. I fully agree with most of them. However it just doesn't matter. Money trumps all those reasons.


The only PDA maker making a solid profit is Palm, and that's because they're selling cheap to build, underpowered, and overpriced cr** and they don't have any competition for PalmOS devices.


Anyone who thinks that MS, HP, and Dell would never drop PPCs for something with possibly better profit potential is just kidding themselves.

Todd

[Typhoon]

I dream of a device no bigger than a paper notebook, and no thicker either. By using a notebook-like shape, it becomes immediately accessible to the older, more affluent, generation of professionals, who might be comfortable with the concept of a laptop, but not with these newfangled PPC things. (There are many at my work who find the PPC too stressful to learn - and some of them are not much older than 40).

Have you looked at the Flybook (http://www.flybook.biz/?section=home&amp;lang=en)??


lol I was thinking of giving him the same response

[Typhoon]

The thing most people are not talking about here is money. Money, money, money.


MS is losing money on PDAs. ...
Todd

How is MS losing money??

[Gerard]

I think it's a bit narcissistic to paint a picture where you classify yourself as "the norm" when you're definitely not.

The picture I was painting was not of myself, alone. If 'narcissism' might be stretched to define the tastes (ie: purchasing decisions) of the 1000+ people I know in various contexts, then I'll agree... but last I checked the word applies in the first person:

Narcissus:
A beautiful youth fabled to have been enamored of his own image as seen in a fountain, and to have been changed into the flower called Narcissus.

I know not one person who owns an iPod. I know a range from rather poor (students, struggling to meet expenses with under-paid jobs) to fairly rich folks. A few may have them; I've just never seen them. I do, by contrast, see at least an iPod or several when I use a city bus or just go for a walk downtown. Some crowds use them, some don't.

Jason, I know you tend to over-buy when it comes to consumer electronics. That's your prerogative. But for many, having umpteen of everything and always the latest thing is neither practical nor desirable. Of course if everyone were to buy one of everything which came from the manufacturers that would make a lot of corporations very happy, but it's just not going to happen.

[surur]

The thing most people are not talking about here is money. Money, money, money.


MS is losing money on PDAs. HP is losing money on PDAs. Reportedly, Dell may be making a very tiny profit on PDAs.


These companies are NOT in the business of losing money. The reason that BG doesn't ever talk about PPCs is because PPCs are just a little negative blip on the balance sheet that he doesn't think will ever amount to anything.


People here have been giving a lot of great reasons why PPCs are better than potential competing devices in their niche. I fully agree with most of them. However it just doesn't matter. Money trumps all those reasons.


The only PDA maker making a solid profit is Palm, and that's because they're selling cheap to build, underpowered, and overpriced cr** and they don't have any competition for PalmOS devices.


Anyone who thinks that MS, HP, and Dell would never drop PPCs for something with possibly better profit potential is just kidding themselves.

Todd

Twalk, how do you know they are losing money. From the last accounts of HP I looked at, they were making $886 000 000 in revenue from pocketpc's. Thats only slightly less than Palm, with a much higher Average Sales Price. Its part of their Personal Systems Group, one of the few areas in HP which did not suffer any cuts and which are consistently turning good profits. If Palm is making good profits from PDA's, so is HP and most other hardware producers.

Check out this thread in which I debunked this myth.
http://www.solomedia.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1528&amp;postdays=0&amp;postorder=asc&amp;start=0

Surur

[Ed Hansberry]

MS is losing money on PDAs. HP is losing money on PDAs. Reportedly, Dell may be making a very tiny profit on PDAs.

Twalk, how do you know they are losing money. From the last accounts of HP I looked at, they were making $886 000 000 in revenue from pocketpc's. Thats only slightly less than Palm, with a much higher Average Sales Price.
I'd think HP and Dell are far more profitable on a per unit basis than is Palm, formerly PalmOne. First of all, the average price is higher, so there is more room for profit. Palm can't be making much if anything on those sub $125 devices. Secondly, MS's OEMs are only making the OAL and drivers for their devices. Palm also has people on staff tweaking FrankenGarnet and rewriting the UI everytime they want to add a new feature. Just ask those writing third party input panels if Palm doesn't break it in favor of a new icon with each new device? Fitaly on a LifeDrive anyone? Not likely. (http://www.fitaly.com/board/palmfitaly/posts/4982.html)

For years everyone said Palm was doing it right by allowing OEMs to customize the OS like crazy and MS was wrong for having a pretty standard OS/App feature set and letting the OEMs get creative on the hardware side. So for years you had people trying to fix their apps for Sony's high-res stuff, Palm's hi-res stuff, different SIP implementations, different ways to access storage cards, etc. It costs the OEMs more to customize like that, which may be why only one PalmOS OEM with shipping product still exists (Palm) and it costs the "palm economy" more to deal with it.

Meanwhile, MS and their OEM partners chug along to greater marketshare each month and develpers ensure their product works with the latest OS and by and large, are confident that it will therefore work on just about every device out there. Exceptions would be for device drivers or games where someone is getting very deep into the display API.

[Tim Rapson]

Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?

I remember back way back when there were several companies all trying to make a PDA sized device. A huge amount of money flooded into the area. All of those companies failed.

Even Apple, with their award winning Newton, failed.

When Palm entered the market, everyone though they were insane. No one thought that the market would fly, and especially not with the underpowered and overpriced piece of cr** that the original Palm Pilot was.


Serious money is often made by those who do things that others think impossible.

Todd

Todd, the Newton was a noble effort, but it was too big. No one thought Palm was crazy for trying a new product of a sort that no one had ever tried before. No one. This is completely different from when the Newton or the Palm were launched. THey were like no products before them. This new Gates vision is so like so many products already tried, that one wonders how can can call it new, much less likely winner.

Anyway, we won't have to wonder long to see if this new Gates vision will succeed. It is coming out this month. It will be called a Nokia 770 with a cell phone taped to the back.....for half what Gates spec product is expected to cost.




And on the profitability of PDAs, no sorry. Palm is barely breaking even. I don't know what they do with all that money when they pay some Asia Rim company $200 for a T5 and wholesale it for $300, or $40 for a mono Zire that they wholesale for $70. Maybe it has to do with their huge multi-million exec salaries. I know they sure are not putting their money into the products they sell, or they would work a lot better and have much better feature sets.

[Deslock]

I'd think HP and Dell are far more profitable on a per unit basis than is Palm, formerly PalmOne. {snip}
Ed, do you know the answer to the question I asked a few pages back?
So why do companies like HP churn out PDA's and Microsoft keep producing OS's for them? Because they do still make some profit (even if not a lot), probably due to high margins. Its just a guess, but I think its a reasonable estimate.
Has Windows CE ever had a profitable year for Microsoft since it came out in 1996? The last chart I saw posted by Ed Hansberry showed that even with CE's revenue jumping 45% from 2004 to 2005, it still was $46M in the red (but that's a lot better than $219M in the red for 2004).

So unless I've misread the chart, direct profit has not been part of Microsoft's motive for sticking with CE/PPC/WM (rather they've committed resources to the PDA market because there were potential threats there to their overall business model).

I dunno how much profit HP has made with their CE/PPC/WM devices.

[Gerard]

Surur; it's a shame perhaps that Jeff or his hired help locked that thread. At least you got the last word in, and another sensible posting it was, too. There were so many unkind words coming from the Palmies over there, all the while claiming that it's the WM camp who are flamers, and yet they get all hostile when a PPC user quotes hard figures...

I especially enjoyed these words from Jeff Kirvin;


Windows Mobile is just as "doomed" in the PDA space as Palm OS. Both will thrive in cell phones, but the slate-form tablet handheld will soon run a desktop OS, not a mobile OS.

Oh. So Jeff, too, believes this April's speech by B.G. is folly, that mobile computing on anything but an XP or Vista or Linux base is doomed? How very different a tack from his chirpings of only a few months ago, back when Palm OS still seemed to have a future (in Palm afficionado's minds, at least), before the companies re-merged and then announced the future abandonment of their own OS!

And this was good, too:

[quote]
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer are committed to the Tablet PC, much moreso than the Pocket PC. They care about WM for phones, but the Pocket PC as we know it is mortally wounded.
{/quote]

Gee, and with 45+ models from a dozen and more companies running WM, and growing, this demonstrates abandonment by MS... how? With the impending release of WM5.0 upgrades for a handful of capable devices and a slew of new models to run the latest OS over the coming year, and the promise of yet another mobile computing/communicating/multi-media device in 2007, can anyone really say with a straight face that Microsoft and the OEMs are abandoning ship in favour of the weak-selling tablet PC? Or, more laughably still, in favour of Palm, or Blackberry for that matter? Sorry, but things are getting better around here, not worse.

In very publicly acknowledging the failure of Cobalt and opting for a future of Linux-based PDAs, Palm has shown their experiment and success in the market with their favoured interface and file system are at an end. Had a good run, but it's over. WM may indeed be heading towards more connected devices, but in basing so many of his arguments for the "death of the PDA as we know it" upon such misleading rules as 'if it has a cellphone built in it's not a PDA' (or however he thinks of it; the actual sentiment is terribly unclear when he keeps harping that a Treo is a PDA where a connected PPC is somehow not a true PDA), Jeff is making a fool of himself. It's a non-argument.

How does added functionality reduce anything, including definability as a PDA? A SmartPhone isn't a PPC, nor is it a Palm, as it lacks all the many and various advantages of a touchscreen-enabled device. Calling a SmartPhone the future when plainly there are so many thousands of applications which benefit from stylus input is folly. Would MS truly abandon a whole input method? Why? Their focus with the tablets is plainly more pen-based, not less. Notebook PCs will soon be sporting touchscreens, and the lines between traditional notebooks and tablet PCs will become blurred. Apple will have little choice but to tag along, if they don't lead with a stylus-input tablet/notebook hybrid or something a little smaller. Once users get a taste for pen input, there are not a lot who go back to a difficult numberpad interface willingly. Just look at how Palm users cling to their Block Recognizer alphabet!

Yes, as we conclude again and again in such threads, the PDA and computing in general continue to evolve. Device specs change constantly. Why should it be otherwise? As manufacturers become aware of actual user wants, they design different devices in hopes of tapping into market potential. As consumers are exposed to new ideas from manufacturers they discover new wants in themselves, perpetuating the cycle. Our portable computing devices in another 10 years will bear little resemblance to those of today, but should this inevitability be cause for rancor or panic, doomsaying and mean-spirited camp bashing? Jeff's rant on his site claims that HP artificially inflates sales figures, year after year, for some nefarious purpose. If this were so, would we really be seeing so many people in the real world using HP devices and so many members in forums dedicated to HP devices? And as someone else pointed out, Dell - the other big US seller - could not possibly inflate sales figures, as they direct-sell only, no brick and mortar stores wherein to hide unsold devices. Specious, irrelevant, and finally meaningless arguments...

If only Jeff weren't so snidely Palm-centric, he might discover there's room for matters of taste in all this. Just as there are those for whom a Mac is all that and a bag of chips, there are those like myself who find the whole Mac experience repulsive and are happy to leave it alone - note; I am not bashing Mac, merely saying it's about as appealing to me as a raspberry frappuchino, which is to say, not.

[Typhoon]

PDAs won't get replaced anytime soon or go extinct. There is nothing that can replace PDAs and will never replace them for the next 5 years. All the current technology has not improved for the last 5 years for an instant-on-off, .5", 5hr lasting, and etc. UPC. If technology does increase, it won't get to the point where you can fit a UPC in your shirt pocket! I'd be very surprised...

[Ed Hansberry]

Ed, do you know the answer to the question I asked a few pages back?

No. I know MS has never made a profit on the CE operating system but they are getting close if FYE 2005 is any indication of a trend.

I have no clue what actual profits of PDAs are for HP, Dell and others. While they will occasionally break the sales out, I've never seen them break out net income for those groups. The only way they are doing worse than Palm Inc. though would be through grossly negligent operational practices because they do less to the Pocket PC OS than Palm does to the Palm OS. They also farm out just about 100% of it to Asia. There is no way Dell is operating less efficiently than Palm, even with lower volume.

[jlp]

...Palm, formerly PalmOne...

Palm, formerly PalmOne, formerly Palm, formerly a division of 3Com, formerly a division of Megaherz, formerly Palm Computing...

Six identities in just about 10 years!! :roll:

[Ed Hansberry]

Six identities in just about 10 years!! :roll:
10 years, 6 identities, and only ONE idea.

[twalk]

Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?

I remember back way back when there were several companies all trying to make a PDA sized device. A huge amount of money flooded into the area. All of those companies failed.

Even Apple, with their award winning Newton, failed.

When Palm entered the market, everyone though they were insane. No one thought that the market would fly, and especially not with the underpowered and overpriced piece of cr** that the original Palm Pilot was.


Serious money is often made by those who do things that others think impossible.

Todd

Todd, the Newton was a noble effort, but it was too big. No one thought Palm was crazy for trying a new product of a sort that no one had ever tried before. No one. This is completely different from when the Newton or the Palm were launched. THey were like no products before them. This new Gates vision is so like so many products already tried, that one wonders how can can call it new, much less likely winner.

There were actually quite a few devices out at the time, a couple even smaller than the Pilot. At the time, and before the Pilot's time, there was Go, Momenta, Grid, Magic Cap, and about a dozen other smaller players. MS was even in there with their oversized "Windows for Pen Computing".

By the time Jeff Hawkins made the Pilot, he already had a few failures in that market under his belt, most notably, the Zoomer.

By the time the Pilot came around, it was "been there, done that, why are you wasting time in a failed market?".



Anyway, we won't have to wonder long to see if this new Gates vision will succeed. It is coming out this month. It will be called a Nokia 770 with a cell phone taped to the back.....for half what Gates spec product is expected to cost.



The Nokia 770 won't interest the people interested in a UPC. Why? Because they want something that's Windows compatible.

Todd

[twalk]

Twalk, how do you know they are losing money. From the last accounts of HP I looked at, they were making $886 000 000 in revenue from pocketpc's. Thats only slightly less than Palm, with a much higher Average Sales Price. Its part of their Personal Systems Group, one of the few areas in HP which did not suffer any cuts and which are consistently turning good profits. If Palm is making good profits from PDA's, so is HP and most other hardware producers.

Check out this thread in which I debunked this myth.
http://www.solomedia.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1528&amp;postdays=0&amp;postorder=asc&amp;start=0

Surur


Thanks for the link. It basically shows that you'll argue on forever, which is something I'm not going to do.

I don't know 100% that HP is losing money. I know for sure that MS is. I'm pretty sure, but not 100% positive that Dell is making a profit. Most of the numbers that you'd like to have just are not available. That's why EDGAR reports and the such are so important.

IDC has stated that HP had a year-to-year drop in Q2 of 40%. That's really, really huge. I did some quick skimming of a few EDGAR reports and a bit of number crunching, and the IDC number looks pretty good, although I didn't check enough to 100% confirm it.

If correct, it very strongly indicates that the huge HP sales burst in the spring was mostly a mirage. When you add in that a new head of the PSG is coming in, and the handheld division's numbers have never been particularly good, and the massive layoffs coming up, it really looks like the handheld div's head stuffed the channel in order to pump up their numbers so they'd look good before the layoff reviews started happening.

At $886M, the handheld division represents about 1% of HP's revenue, and a smaller amount yet of their profit. In huge companies like HP, divisions have to be huge to effect the bottom line. And the bottom line is all that CEOs really care about. Small divisions such as the handheld division routinely get the shaft at huge corporations, that is, unless they can show growth at a rate that would eventually effect the bottom line. HP's handheld group can't do that.

(Remember when HP killed off the calculator division for a while? I certainly do... NOBODY though that could ever happen...)

As for MS, if the Windows group ever decides that they want the market space that the PPC is in, the Windows group will get it. Typical corporate politics happen at MS, just like everywhere else.


A funny thing was Surur and Ed quickly attacking me about Palm's decent profit margin, basically saying it can't be. It really shows a lack of business knowledge here. Palm has a decent profit margin because their low end PDA space is being wiped out by j2me cell phones. That's recently greatly reduced the amount of product sold, greatly increased their net profit margins (because a higher percentage of high price devices are sold), and loaded up the channel with hard to sell product.

With the kind of situation that Palm is in, high profit margins are the last harrah before the loss of sales starts hitting the revenue. (Look up "disruptive technologies" if you don't see what I'm talking about.)

In a normal situation, a company like Palm would (barely) survive by taking up the high end. However PPCs are already there, and XP laptops are above that. Smartphones really are their only chance.

I'm fully expecting PPCs to be hit in the same sort of way, only delayed by a while because they're higher up on the food chain. (ie, if the profit margins at HP &amp; Dell start taking off, and device sales numbers are dropping, then you need to start worrying.)


Todd

[Cantab Rich]

Gen-M/Typhoon, the flybook looks cool - thanks. It is certainly a step in the right direction. If they could make it about 2 cm slimmer, wtih Blackberry functionality and UMTS, then I might be interested... If they could make it even simpler (i.e. Mobile 5 rather than XP) and price it at about USD7-800, then I would definitely take a look...

[jngold_me]

Surur,

Wow that was great reading material!. :)

What I think is funny is that Mr. Kirvin goes ahead and touts the future ability of "mini-laptops" which, btw, there's no denying the concept of his logic. The funny part of this is that it will be MS that powering that generation of devices. Also, if there happens to be another player in that market, it will be MS that brings it to the masses.

[jlp]

...
By the time Jeff Hawkins made the Pilot, he already had a few failures in that market under his belt, most notably, the Zoomer.

...

Todd,

Wait a minute, the Zoomer itself had nothing to do with Hawkins, it was a Casio product also sold by Tandy under the same moniker. What Jeff made was Graffiti for it, like he did for the Newton, the HP OmniGo, etc.

[twalk]

...
By the time Jeff Hawkins made the Pilot, he already had a few failures in that market under his belt, most notably, the Zoomer.

...

Todd,

Wait a minute, the Zoomer itself had nothing to do with Hawkins, it was a Casio product also sold by Tandy under the same moniker. What Jeff made was Graffiti for it, like he did for the Newton, the HP OmniGo, etc.

There was actually a group of 4 companies (can't remember the name of the 4th one) that "jointly" developed it.

Palm made several different pieces of software back then, most (from what I remember) targeting the Newton.

Todd

[Darius Wey]

10 years, 6 identities, and only ONE idea.

So what was the idea? :bangin:

[Tim Rapson]

By the time Jeff Hawkins made the Pilot, he already had a few failures in that market under his belt, most notably, the Zoomer.

By the time the Pilot came around, it was "been there, done that, why are you wasting time in a failed market?".
Todd

Do I have to repeat that a Zoomer is not the size of a Palm or PPC? This is why this new Gates product will fail.

[Tim Rapson]

I'm fully expecting PPCs to be hit in the same sort of way, only delayed by a while because they're higher up on the food chain. (ie, if the profit margins at HP &amp; Dell start taking off, and device sales numbers are dropping, then you need to start worrying.)
Todd

Your analysis is amazing. It completely explains HP making such lackluster, overpriced, likely very profit oriented models for this year......as it takes one last bit of cash out of a dying product line and then closes it. This supposing that HP is seeing the PDA market going right where you see it going. If HP is out of the PDA marketplace next year at this time it will certainly underline your views here on this.

Which brings up one of my favorite topics; "What is coming next year?" I have seen nothing about any new HP line, though we have semi-official word from HP that they will drop the x30 and boost the x50 with a hard disk model for WM 2005. And, supposing some company does try to make a UPC? Who will it be and what will it cost and look like?

[IcemanMN]

Personally I couldn't care less about PDA's. If it's not a PDA/phone/MP3 player/game player I'm not interested. Gates' tablet PC with a 7" screen looks interesting, and would be nice for movies or TV shows, but ultimately it's too big and would be just another failed tablet PC.

The thing to keep in mind about convergence devices is, each function gets better/smaller/faster with every generation. Sony and Samsung now have pretty good camera phones available. The Treo 650 and the i730 have really good (small) screens and keyboards, and the i730 has an EVDO radio for really usable internet connectivity. You think this is the best they can do? Wait a few months for the HTC Wizard and Treo 700 (PPC) to hit the market. IMO the most interesting technology competition in the marketplace today is the race to build a better convergence device. PDA/phone, music/phone, camera/phone, all of the above.

The Achilles' heel in the newer devices is power consumption. WM5, with its upgraded power management, can't get here fast enough.

[Gerard]

I have seen nothing about any new HP line, though we have semi-official word from HP that they will drop the x30 and boost the x50 with a hard disk model for WM 2005.

HP: x30 &amp; x50??? um... Dell? or is there an HP x30 &amp; x50 just in US stores, not for outsiders?

[Deslock]

Palm, formerly PalmOne, formerly Palm, formerly a division of 3Com, formerly a division of Megaherz, formerly Palm Computing...

Six identities in just about 10 years!! :roll:
Microsoft's mainstream PDA OS was initially called just Windows CE, then Palm PC, Palm-sized PC, Pocket PC, and Windows Mobile.

[Gerard]

Microsoft's mainstream PDA OS was initially called just Windows CE, then Palm PC, Palm-sized PC, Pocket PC, and Windows Mobile.

Yeah, right. Palm's corporate identity is being compared to Microsoft's various OS/device identities. Clever. Microsoft hasn't re-branded itself, has it? Unlike Palm/pa1mOne/PalmSource/Palm etcetera... It's all just trivial marketing nonsense anyway, to me. I'm just suggesting you compare apples to apples, not oranges.

[twalk]

I'm fully expecting PPCs to be hit in the same sort of way, only delayed by a while because they're higher up on the food chain. (ie, if the profit margins at HP &amp; Dell start taking off, and device sales numbers are dropping, then you need to start worrying.)
Todd

Your analysis is amazing. It completely explains HP making such lackluster, overpriced, likely very profit oriented models for this year......as it takes one last bit of cash out of a dying product line and then closes it. This supposing that HP is seeing the PDA market going right where you see it going. If HP is out of the PDA marketplace next year at this time it will certainly underline your views here on this.

Which brings up one of my favorite topics; "What is coming next year?" I have seen nothing about any new HP line, though we have semi-official word from HP that they will drop the x30 and boost the x50 with a hard disk model for WM 2005. And, supposing some company does try to make a UPC? Who will it be and what will it cost and look like?


I seriously doubt that HP will get out of the PPC market next year. My guess would be about 3 years from now. Then again I could be wrong. Having a new CEO moving into HP changes alot.

From a market perspective, smartphones will need to be free to really cheap (w/ contract) in order to seriously cut into the bottom of the PPC market. Right now they're about the same price, which leads customers to buy according to want/need.

For the UPC to work, MS will need to do some serious optimization work on Windows and Office. My theory is that the Windows group has been burned so many times on pen/tablet computing, that they're having trouble commiting to the new initiative. (The hardware can be done now, and finiancially they'd make much more money per device.)

So I'm guessing that next year PPCs will still have the typical pressure from the Palm side, but nothing much else of significance.


(Palm, on the other hand, already has a huge amount of pressure on them from j2me phones. Something like 50% of Palms are bought mostly for PIM work, and j2me phones can do that good enough, for free. PPCs are mostly saved here, because people rarely buy them just for PIMs.)


Here's one thing: what if in 3 years most/all PPCs come with a cell modem, and are cheap to free w/ contract? My guess is you'll see about the same as you have now, ie. slow growth.

Here's another: what if there is a smartphone part component shortage? That could potentially give PPCs another 2-3 years of breathing room, which is several lifetimes in this industry.


Todd

[Tim Rapson]

I have seen nothing about any new HP line, though we have semi-official word from HP that they will drop the x30 and boost the x50 with a hard disk model for WM 2005.

HP: x30 &amp; x50??? um... Dell? or is there an HP x30 &amp; x50 just in US stores, not for outsiders?

Thanks, of course I meant the Dell X30 will be dropped and the X50v will get a HD model.

[that dan guy]

I have had a palm and a ppc and I will not go back to palm just not powerful enough and simple in some aspects but more comlicated in others. I feel the same way about my xv6600 now I went form having a small cell phone and a dell axim x5 advance to a samsung I700 and now to this. I must say I was feeling a little stagnant with ppc until I went converged. I don't think the device is small but is not huge. It is way bigger than my old phone but it is way smaller than my phone and pda combined. I like the added functionality of being able to go into contacts and send them straight to my phone for email or a phone call. I know that you give up a little on both sides ( not the greatest pda or phone) but this thing plays video smoother than my old dell ( I know it is 2 years old). My dad has an hp 4700 and it is nice but when we watch the same video side by side it runs just as smooth and looks good on both. I don't need an ipod, cell phone, pda, video player, gps unit, or gameboy; I have all of this functionality in one device. I must admit I was kind of down about ppc until I got a pda phone and it breathed new life into it for me. I am getting so much use out of this thing I am lost without it.

I think the problem is that people don't know what is possible. I just got back form a family gathering (30+ people) and everyone of them was just wowed by my "palm pilot". They had no idea that it was even possible to do bluetooth gps, watch full movies, and listen to mp3s on a devicee that small and it was a phone too...

I think this is indicative of most of society they know about Ipods and laptops and palms as phone books and of course now blackberrys because they are part of pop culture but I think if people knew what these devices could do people would buy them. I wish i had a device like this when I was in college. I could have put my papers on it and maybe some of my books for class and surfed the net or recorded class lectures and put my class schedule on it.

I think this is just the beginning.


Danno

[Deslock]

Microsoft's mainstream PDA OS was initially called just Windows CE, then Palm PC, Palm-sized PC, Pocket PC, and Windows Mobile.

Yeah, right. Palm's corporate identity is being compared to Microsoft's various OS/device identities. Clever. Microsoft hasn't re-branded itself, has it? {snip}
Why would a phenomenally successful company like Microsoft rebrand itself? While I personally think Palm's name changes were stupid, they had some reasons... just like Microsoft did for changing the name of its consumer-grade mobile OS: it had failed so badly from 1996-2000 (and continued to struggle for the next few years) that the names WinCE and Palm-sized PC had become a liability to Microsoft's PDA platform.

None of that is especially relevant to this topic, but your post about Palm's name changes is even less relevant.

Getting back to "Ultra Mobile 2007", I look forward to seeing what MS can come up with. I don't care what flavor of Win32 it runs (or if it's based on something else entirely) as long as it isn't too temperamental, has good performance and battery life, hardware DIVX decoding, at least an 800x480 screen, and a real web solution. IMHO, the lack of a decent VGA browser is one of PPC's biggest drawbacks (yes, yes, I can run ozVGA + NetFront, but with that comes many other disadvantages and still renders agonizingly slow).

[Deslock]

One more tangential post since my point in responding to jlp on page 9 appears to have been lost:

It seems mildly ironic to me that people are bashing Palm for changing its name in a thread about "Ultra Mobile" at a website named pocketpcthoughts that's dedicated to an OS now known as "Windows Mobile" (and used to be known as WinCE, Palm PC and Palm-sized PC).

(Or was that too subtle?)

[Gerard]

I am sorry that you mistook my intention with that retort post. I found the initial Palm name change post to be irrelevant to the thread, and yours equally so. Besides that, re-naming the OS is something all too familiar in the Palm camp, regardless of the branding of the corporate side. Why would Microsoft rename itself? I don't know; why would Palm? Shouldn't these be in the 'trivia' section, if there is one?

Windows CE was not a failure. Growth of the MS mobile OS has been gradual, not exactly a skyrocket, but it has been an evolution with compatibility running almost throughout. I could still runn old CE2.11 apps on my PPC2000 Casio. 5-year-old PPC2000 apps still work on my WM2003 device. Continuity is useful.

As for Ultra Mobile 2007 having hardware DivX decoding.... don't hold your breath. Open source is Bill's enemy, publicly declared on several occassions by the rich boy himself. It'll be a frosty one below before that happens, or even Motion JPEG AVI playback in mobile WMP it would seem, despite the fact that this format is extremely popular with digicam users worldwide. There's something a bit wrong with Microsoft when it comes to video formats.

[Racer-X]

One more tangential post since my point in responding to jlp on page 9 appears to have been lost:

It seems mildly ironic to me that people are bashing Palm for changing its name in a thread about "Ultra Mobile" at a website named pocketpcthoughts that's dedicated to an OS now known as "Windows Mobile" (and used to be known as WinCE, Palm PC and Palm-sized PC).

(Or was that too subtle?)
No. I took it that no one cared. Maybe you could visit http://www.microsoft.com/windowsmobile/about/faq.mspx though and get a feel for the difference between the names "Windows Mobile," "Pocket PC" and "Smartphone" and then come back and look at the name of this site, and find that what is ironic is, your post makes no more sense the 2nd time you said it anymore than it did the 1st.

(or was that too subtle?)

[Deslock]

^^ Gerard: CE was a failure in the consumer PDA market by any reasonable measurement. Your stories of compatibility may be heart-warming to some, but they're irrelevant (and frankly nothing special... I ran dozens of Palm apps written in 1997 on my T3 last year). As far as video goes, I just want a decent all-purpose 3D chip like my X50v has (which plays 480x640 DIVX at silly-fast frame rates). Unfortunately, the upcoming HTC phone reportedly lacks such a chip.

^ Racer-X: Not sure what your "no one cared" statement means... I was responding to Gerard. I never said that Microsoft's naming convention/chages were nonsensical, just that it's ironic that people here bash Palm for name changes given all the names that Microsoft's PDA OS has gone through.

[MBurch]

I am supposed to lug a pound around on my hip? I agree with the sentiment that converged devices just don't work.