Cringely Thinks This Week Changed Everything

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050512.html' target='_blank'>http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/...it20050512.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"It's an expression made popular in Silicon Valley years ago by Andy Grove of Intel: "inflection point." It's that abrupt elbow in a graph of growth or decline when the new technology or paradigm truly kicks in, and suddenly there is no going back. From that moment, the new stuff takes off and the old stuff goes into rapid decline, whether it is a new standard of modem, a new video game, a new microprocessor family, or just a new idea. I think we've just hit such an inflection point and -- though most of us still don't realize it -- the personal computer, video game, and electronic entertainment businesses will never be the same."</i><br /><br />Robert Cringely is one of the most brilliant minds in technology today, and I'm always eager to read his weekly articles. This one really floored me though, because I happen to agree that this week saw the introduction of technologies, and implementation of technologies, that will profoundly shape the technology world over the next decade. The <a href="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/index.php?topic_id=8289">Xbox 360</a> is the first step in a complete upheaval of the computer industry, and Google's Web Accelerator is a sign that the way we access the Web may be in a for a big change a few years down the road. Read his column and weigh in.

[Jon Westfall]

If Google's service is anything like DirecWay's WPA, we've got nothing to worry about: WPA can be the biggest piece of junk at times. I don't know how I can download files at lightening fast speed, yet web pages take forever using WPA over my Direcway connection. But anyway, I am wondering what Google's ultimate goal will be on this. World domination?

[Phoenix]

Microsoft kicks the dog? I highly doubt that.

I do agree that at some point subscription music services would be the most advantageous way of acquiring music. I'd love to have access to every song or genre available in the industry's exhaustive music libraries in exchange for a low monthly fee. But this service will demand those libraries, very high quality audio offerings (better encoding options than what Apple offers on iTunes), and many changes to the hardware we buy for our homes, our cars, and on the go, for it to become popular. Lots of variables there. I don't doubt it'll all come together at some point.

I'm curious, though, about the specific technology behind Google trying to speed up the entire Web. Audacious is an understatement. What on earth is that going to cost? I don't even want to know.

Apple offering movie content is interesting. They'll be the first, and some other company will take it from there. Maybe eventually it will end up like Netflix - rent as many as you want for a monthly fee, but download only three (or however many) at a time. When you're ready to dowload another movie, one movie file is removed or elimated in exchange for another. But what would this require in terms of computers? A self destructing file? A file that couldn't be moved to another system or handheld? Or maybe a new piece of hardware altogether that connects to your TV - but then how would that intersect with CableCard technology? Would it need to? How will Comcast and satellite companies react to this type of movie download model? Time limits on movie files won't work - they would be too constricting to people and would never be popular. But of course, this is putting the cart before the horse at this point. Or not.

One thing for sure - we'll all have online access to all the music and movies we can handle one day. Just like we have online access to all the information we can handle today.

[Darius Wey]

The XBOX 360 is very much a behemoth. For those that missed it, here are the specifications:

Custom IBM PowerPC-based CPU
- Three symmetrical cores running at 3.2 GHz each
- Two hardware threads per core; six hardware threads total
- VMX-128 vector unit per core; three total
- 128 VMX-128 registers per hardware thread
- 1 MB L2 cache

Shader Performance

- 48 billion shader operations per second
Memory
- 512 MB of GDDR3 RAM
- 700 MHz of DDR
- Unified memory architecture

Memory Bandwidth
- 22.4 GB/s memory interface bus bandwidth
- 256 GB/s memory bandwidth to EDRAM
- 21.6 GB/s front-side bus

Overall System Floating-Point Performance
- 1 teraflop

Storage
- Detachable and upgradeable 20GB hard drive
- 12x dual-layer DVD-ROM
- Memory Unit support starting at 64 MB

I/O
- Support for up to four wireless game controllers
- Three USB 2.0 ports
- Two memory unit slots

Optimized for Online
- Instant, out-of-the-box access to Xbox Live features with broadband service, including Xbox Live Marketplace for downloadable content, gamer profile for digital identity, and voice chat to talk to friends while playing games, watching movies or listening to music
- Built-in Ethernet port
- Wi-Fi ready: 802.11a, 802.11b and 802.11g
- Video camera ready

Digital Media Support
- Support for DVD-Video, DVD-ROM, DVD-R/RW, DVD+R/RW, CD-DA, CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW, WMA CD, MP3 CD, JPEG Photo CD
- Ability to stream media from portable music devices, digital cameras and Windows XP-based PCs
- Ability to rip music to the Xbox 360 hard drive • Custom playlists in every game
- Built-in Media Center Extender for Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005
- Interactive, full-screen 3-D visualizers

High-Definition Game Support
- All games supported at 16:9, 720p and 1080i, anti-aliasing
- Standard-definition and high-definition video output supported

Audio
- Multichannel surround sound output
- Supports 48KHz 16-bit audio
- 320 independent decompression channels
- 32-bit audio processing
- Over 256 audio channels

System Orientation
- Stands vertically or horizontally

Customizable Face Plates
- Interchangeable to personalize the console

The beauty of it is that it not only serves as a gaming machine, but it also doubles up as a fantastic media centre due to its heavy integration with other Windows products, and its integrated networking capabilities. I think the vision is to have an XBOX 360 linked up to every home's television (whether big or small), and with connectivity being a huge issue in Microsoft's agenda, it only takes a few clicks for your XBOX to start communicating with your PC, and so on. In fact, I can even see our Pocket PCs and Smartphones playing a huge part in controlling digital entertainment, and it all starts now. Some say the PS3 will kick more butt than ever before, but the way I see it, unless Sony can deliver something decent within this year, my money's with the XBOX 360. I'm sure some of you would argue otherwise.

[mcsouth]

Hardcore fans will buy both P3 and Xbox 360, so that will be a wash. But I suspect that if MS can get the games for their rig by release next Nov, they will OWN the casual gamer market - that will be THE item to have next Xmas, just because it offers something for everyone in the family - even mom, who likes to play card games online. Media Center Extender may be a big deal for some, but how many folks actually have an MCE PC at this point? That being said, the tremendous compatibility of the drive will see this rig replacing the regular DVD player in the living room, never mind the family room/game room. Unit is drop dead awesome, and I want one!!!

[Deslock]

XBox 360 has mucho impressve specs and screenshots. It being positioned as the household media extension for Windows XP boxes is a brilliant move by Microsoft:

1) Create kickass gaming and Internet machine
2) Initially, make it compatible with iPod and other currently successful consumer electronics
3) Require Windows XP on household PCs in order for them to interact with it
4) Push their own Windows-based services and formats

Microsoft has seen the future; I expect they'll sell the XBox360 at a huge loss in order to prevent competitors (like Apple and Sony) from getting any sort of foothold with the "household media center". Because they'll have tight control over whatever web browser they put on this thing, they'll be able to monkey with Google. If it takes off (which I expect it to), they can then launch their own WMA/WMV subscription service designed to work with Windows/XBox360 and gradually convert over iPod/iTunes users (or at the very least, this will help push iPod/iTunes users towards services like Napster/Yahoo).

Gaming has been important to Microsoft for over 10 years, but it's about to become more of a core strategy than ever before. XBox360 attacks Google, Nintendo, Sony, and Apple all at once while possibly revitalizing the poorly performing MSN services... wow.

[johnm]

Robert Cringely is one of the most brilliant minds in technology today

Are you serious?

[beq]

Just curious, do we know if the Xbox 360 has "PlaysForSure" WMP10 (with Janus DRM) so that it can download/play unlimited songs from Napster / Rhapsody / Yahoo Music?

Would the Xbox 360 count as just another PC (not as a portable player) so that, for example you could use the regular Rhapsody $10/month subscription instead of the $15/month subscription that supports portable players?

I wanted to ask since someone above mentioned the iPod...

[Deslock]

Just curious, do we know if the Xbox 360 has "PlaysForSure" WMP10 (with Janus DRM) so that it can download/play unlimited songs from Napster / Rhapsody / Yahoo Music?

Would the Xbox 360 count as just another PC (not as a portable player) so that, for example you could use the regular Rhapsody $10/month subscription instead of the $15/month subscription that supports portable players?

I wanted to ask since someone above mentioned the iPod...
I haven't read anything that said you'll be able to download stuff directly to the Xbox from the online services, but some of the previews mentioned it's compatible with the iPod and will be able to wirelessly connect to your XP computer so you can stream media to your stereo/theater system (via the XBox, which has the needed outputs). So the XBox will be another way Microsoft pushes Windows.

[Dalantech]

Cringely missed an inflection point: Windows Mobile 5.0. I think we are all going to be stunned and amazed at the number of WM5 PDA's on the market this Christmas and the variation in them...

[Jason Dunn]

Hardcore fans will buy both P3 and Xbox 360, so that will be a wash. But I suspect that if MS can get the games for their rig by release next Nov, they will OWN the casual gamer market - that will be THE item to have next Xmas, just because it offers something for everyone in the family - even mom, who likes to play card games online. Media Center Extender may be a big deal for some, but how many folks actually have an MCE PC at this point?

Next November? I was under the impression that the 360 will be out for THIS Christmas, and by the looks of it they'll have at least a dozen high-def games out for it. And assuming it's backwards compatible (it would be stupid if it wasn't) you'll still be able to get all the other Xbox games for it. I only know one person that has both a PS/2 and an Xbox, so I get the feeling that the market of people that will buy both is fairly small.

Regarding MCE, you've gotta' think long term here. First, MCE can now be offered without a TV tuner, which used to be a requirement. So that means that when you're on Dell.com buying a new computer and you see that you can get MCE for $20 more...you'll get it because it's Windows XP + extras. MCE's are selling quite well right now, and looking forward to Longhorn I think you'll see this functionality integrated into the core OS.

[Jason Dunn]

Are you serious?

Absolutely - I think he's a brilliant, creative thinker and I really enjoy his weekly columns. But let's stay on topic shall we?

[Jason Dunn]

Just curious, do we know if the Xbox 360 has "PlaysForSure" WMP10 (with Janus DRM) so that it can download/play unlimited songs from Napster / Rhapsody / Yahoo Music?

The Xbox 360 is being positioned as an extension to a Windows PC you already have in your house, so you'd probably download music onto that and play it via the Xbox 360. If it was meant to be a media storage device, I think you'd see a bigger hard drive. That said, because the hard drive is removable, for all we know in 2006 we'll see a 100 GB drive and an OS update that will allow exactly the scenario you're talking about. Interesting times ahead to be sure!

[Jonathon Watkins]

I do agree that at some point subscription music services would be the most advantageous way of acquiring music. I'd love to have access to every song or genre available in the industry's exhaustive music libraries in exchange for a low monthly fee.

Hmmm. I like owning my own music and not having to be worried about it disappearing at someone else's behest if I stop superscribing. I don't like the 'rental' model myself and can't ever see myself subscribing to what is essentially on-demand-radio.

[Darius Wey]

Next November? I was under the impression that the 360 will be out for THIS Christmas, and by the looks of it they'll have at least a dozen high-def games out for it.

I'm pretty sure it's this November. Unless people are getting confused between the use of this and next. :P

I only know one person that has both a PS/2 and an Xbox, so I get the feeling that the market of people that will buy both is fairly small.

I know quite a few that have both, and with them, you'll find they tend to stick to one platform for most of the time. The other console tends to collect dust and gets pulled out for the odd game or two. Hardly worth busting out a few hundred dollars just so one can play a game that the other console cannot provide.

[Darius Wey]

Cringely missed an inflection point: Windows Mobile 5.0. I think we are all going to be stunned and amazed at the number of WM5 PDA's on the market this Christmas and the variation in them...

Actually, Windows Mobile 5 is pretty big. Maybe not ground-breaking, but the new technologies behind it will certainly help push the Windows Mobile platform as an integrative one. We already can use our Windows Mobile devices to control our MCE, our TVs and so on and so forth. I think with Windows Mobile 5 out of its shell, more and more companies lining up to support it, and a few others now targeting the Windows Media platform (e.g. Philips), we'll definitely start to see a few worlds collide, and integration will be one of the key words being used over and over again when Microsoft promotes its products.

[rthutchison]

with a serious axe to grind against MS. I heard he even mis-represented his academic credentials 8O

[ctmagnus]

Just wondering...

What does the X in Robert X. Cringely stand for?

[beq]

Xavier &lt;j/k> ;)

I've been trying out the new Yahoo Music Unlimited subscription (ie. "rental") service today and it passably competes with Rhapsody TG (and Napster TG). Which is great for the price (much cheaper monthly subscription, cheaper per-track/album burnable purchases). Yahoo Music Engine feels somewhat similar to Rhapsody app...

[Phoenix]

Hmmm. I like owning my own music and not having to be worried about it disappearing at someone else's behest if I stop superscribing. I don't like the 'rental' model myself and can't ever see myself subscribing to what is essentially on-demand-radio.

I hear ya. I've touched on this subject matter in the past. For now, I like owning my music as well. Currently, there aren't enough of the variables in place to make subscriptions the smartest way to go. One day, I'm sure it will be an excellent and tempting option for many including myself, but not yet.

[surur]

Subscription is brilliant for a casual user who likes music. It allows you to explore other music without any additional cost, and if there is a track you really like you can always buy it permanently.

Its not for the serious music lover who already knows who and what he likes. They would be reading the reviews already, and be part of a community. They don't need to explore widely, and would therefore find the small niche they are interested in would not be very widely available in the on-line selection. On the other hand the casual user would find a huge number of genres and artists to tempt them.

Ive got Rhapsody, and as soon as I get a playforsure PDA I'm getting Rhapsody To Go. If I was a serious user I would probably have had an Ipod by now, and a huge collection of CD's to rip. As it is I only have 3-4 GB of music, most of which I don't listen to anymore. I like listening to new stuff from many areas. (Ive got some country , R&amp;B and ska on my PPC at the moment) For me RTG will be perfect.

Surur

[mcsouth]

Hardcore fans will buy both P3 and Xbox 360, so that will be a wash. But I suspect that if MS can get the games for their rig by release next Nov, they will OWN the casual gamer market - that will be THE item to have next Xmas, just because it offers something for everyone in the family - even mom, who likes to play card games online. Media Center Extender may be a big deal for some, but how many folks actually have an MCE PC at this point?

Next November? I was under the impression that the 360 will be out for THIS Christmas, and by the looks of it they'll have at least a dozen high-def games out for it. And assuming it's backwards compatible (it would be stupid if it wasn't) you'll still be able to get all the other Xbox games for it. I only know one person that has both a PS/2 and an Xbox, so I get the feeling that the market of people that will buy both is fairly small.


Uh, I meant this November, which is the next November to come - semantics, I guess.

And as far as persons owning multiple gaming systems, I personally know well over a dozen folks that have at least two different gaming platforms, and a few that have all three. When the price points came down this last year, there really wasn't any reason to deny yourself that hot game that only played on someone else's platform. Locally, the vid stores selled used and reconditioned Xbox's for under $100, and Gamecubes for about $80. Lots of people even went and bought the smaller version of the PS2 when it came out - @ $150, it wasn't exactly a huge purchase.....Guess I just know a lot of hardcore gamers.......

[Jonathon Watkins]

Uh, I meant this November, which is the next November to come - semantics, I guess.

Funnily enough I had the same semantic conversation at lunch, debating if 'next Saturday' and 'this Saturday' meant the same thing.

The more I see of the new Xbox, the more I like it. 8) A shift away from PCs? I can see it in myself and it surprises me. It's not so long ago that I aspired to the the full sized tower case with multiple fans. Now I like small form factor silent machines and I can see the real advantages of a console. Age changes one's perspective I guess.....

[Darius Wey]

The more I see of the new Xbox, the more I like it. 8) A shift away from PCs? I can see it in myself and it surprises me. It's not so long ago that I aspired to the the full sized tower case with multiple fans. Now I like small form factor silent machines and I can see the real advantages of a console. Age changes one's perspective I guess.....

I think we'll see the XBOX 360 come out tops at the start. For starters, it is released a few months before the PS3. And despite the PS3's better specs, and Blu-Ray + 1080p support, I think the XBOX 360 still has better media integration with other devices, and for some, that's a good enough reason for it to be the preferential winner over the PS3. Game geeks may argue otherwise.