HP Top Of Sales Heap In 2004

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/wireless/2005/02/14/wirelessvnunet_2005_02_14_eng-vnunet_eng-vnunet_092510_7180613473706467921.html">http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/wireless/2005/02/14/wirelessvnunet_2005_02_14_eng-vnunet_eng-vnunet_092510_7180613473706467921.html</a><br /><br /><i>"Fueled by particularly strong growth in RIM's BlackBerry shipments, worldwide PDA shipments increased 6.6 per cent in 2004, Gartner reported today. According to the analyst firm, increased average selling prices drove worldwide PDA revenue to a record $4.3bn in 2004, a 16.7 per cent increase on the year before. In the fourth quarter of 2004, the average price of PDAs reached $353, up 9.4 per cent from 2003."</i><br /><br />The table below shows sales dollars. Even though units were up 6.6%, revenue increased 16.7%, reflecting an increase towards higher powered connected organizers as the basic PIM oriented PDA market continues to garner less market share each year.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2005/20050216-q42005marketshare.gif" /><br /><br />The Blackberry had explosive growth again and according Gartner, may be the number one OS sold in 2005. Despite Sony's retreat from the market, pa1mOne shipments declined, meaning former Sony users upgrading moved on to another platform. In related news, PalmSource continues to struggle to find direction, hoping the acquisition of MobilSoft will <a href="http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=11274&hed=PalmOne+opens+up+to+Linux§or=Industries&subsector=InternetAndServices">allow Linux to overcome some of the obstacles</a> that face the current OS5/OS6 platform that has OS4 compatibility environment on it. It is <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/02/15/palmsource_linux_strategy/">questionable if Cobalt </a>will ever see the light of day on devices as it currently exists.

[MikeUnwired]

It should be noted that Gartner's numbers do not include palmOne's Treo 600 or 650 because they are considered smart phones rather than PDAs by Gartner. They did include the HP iPAQ h6315 though. The RIM figures don't include sales the new 7100 smart phone, but do include the rest of the BlackBerry line. I personally would have included the Treos, and left-out the more smartphone like RIM 7100. Would Treo sales have boosted palmOne above HP?

[Ed Hansberry]

It should be noted that Gartner's numbers do not include palmOne's Treo 600 or 650 because they are considered smart phones rather than PDAs by Gartner. They did include the HP iPAQ h6315 though. The RIM figures don't include sales the new 7100 smart phone, but do include the rest of the BlackBerry line. I personally would have included the Treos, and left-out the more smartphone like RIM 7100. Would Treo sales have boosted palmOne above HP?
Possibly. But you have to draw the line somewhere. Do you include the iMATE SP3i, Moto MPx220? The entire line of Nokia?

Voice centric devices are out of this. That includes the Treo.

[mcsouth]

It is questionable if Cobalt (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/02/15/palmsource_linux_strategy/)will ever see the light of day on devices as it currently exists.

Sad, but true....considering that Cobalt went gold when? spring 2004? And there are STILL no units out with this mystical OS?

I, for one, held out hope that Palm/PalmSource/whatever would manage to overcome the obstacles that they themselves placed in their path, and that OS6 would be a worthy challenger to PPC.

For one thing, the competition may have helped spur MS to develop some more dramatic changes for WM2003SE than what ultimately resulted. Don't get me wrong, VGA and native screen rotation is nice, but there are lots of other things that would be nice if MS fixed. With their market share increasing, and Palm on the ropes, where is the incentive to continue pushing the envelope that bit further. Maybe Magneto will prove me wrong, but I haven't been overwhelmed with the last release changes.

It will also be interesting to see if HP can maintain their growth and market share lead over the other PPC makers, given the lackluster response to their latest releases. The iJam, Asus and others are, IMHO, pushing the edge that bit harder than HP seems willing to do right now. Overall, HP's new lineup just seems diluted and confusing, without enough sizzle to interest me much.

[surur]

As usual the numbers are again confusing, with various different devices included or excluded. I would personally have counted the Treo, as it has a touch screen.

In any case, there are two questions that we pda enthusiast want answered:

1) Is MS beating PalmOne. As usual this is not properly answered by the numbers, but looking at the PLMO graph it linearly regresses nicely to zero in June 2005 :twisted:
http://surur.sytes.net/palmdive.jpg
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PLMO&amp;t=6m&amp;l=off&amp;z=m&amp;q=l&amp;c=

2) The more important question: Are PDA's dying? Todays numbers are encouraging, especially the increased revenue. Again its not clear exactly, as we dont know whats included and whats excluded. Here is a nice story then that confirms the market is burgeoning. HTC has raised revenue by 97% in one year! http://www.msmobiles.com/news.php/3550.html

Now we know HTC makes the best devices (mostly Microsoft, but palm devices too). They are clearly making money, and if you make money you are not going to abandon the market. Now HTC's financial health does not differentiate between phone edition devices and normal PDA's or HP or Palmone devices. However to answer the question of the health of the PDA market I dont really care, as Im sure we will all transition to phone type devices over the next few years in any case.

So, HTC is making money hand over fist, and is planning to release 20 more models this year, which is the clearest indicator that the market is doing very well indeed.

Surur

[MikeUnwired]

It should be noted that Gartner's numbers do not include palmOne's Treo 600 or 650 because they are considered smart phones rather than PDAs by Gartner. They did include the HP iPAQ h6315 though. The RIM figures don't include sales the new 7100 smart phone, but do include the rest of the BlackBerry line. I personally would have included the Treos, and left-out the more smartphone like RIM 7100. Would Treo sales have boosted palmOne above HP?
Possibly. But you have to draw the line somewhere. Do you include the iMATE SP3i, Moto MPx220? The entire line of Nokia?

Voice centric devices are out of this. That includes the Treo.

Voice-centric devices are NOT left out. They included the HP iPAQ h6315 -- a phone. They also included all RIM devices but the more phone like 7100.

Most people would put the Treo in the same category with the RIM units and h6315.

Of course MS Smartphones, Nokia smart phones and such don't fit in the same category as PDAs, but if you're using voice as the litmus test then the line needs to be solidly drawn to make the numbers meaningful.

All that said, I'd like to see a report that counts the total number of ActiveSync units vs the total number of Palm Desktop units vs the total number of RIM whatever units shipped. Symbian? If it comes with a desktop sync product, sure. That report would tell the tale of the trend.

[NLS]

sad...

[shawnc]

Possibly. But you have to draw the line somewhere. Do you include the iMATE SP3i, Moto MPx220? The entire line of Nokia?

Voice centric devices are out of this. That includes the Treo.

I agree, you have to draw the line somewhere. This study just drew it in the wrong place. To include the ipaq 6315 but EXCLUDE the Treo is simply illogical. But maybe not, depends on what your intent is.

[surur]

Possibly. But you have to draw the line somewhere. Do you include the iMATE SP3i, Moto MPx220? The entire line of Nokia?

Voice centric devices are out of this. That includes the Treo.

I agree, you have to draw the line somewhere. This study just drew it in the wrong place. To include the ipaq 6315 but EXCLUDE the Treo is simply illogical. But maybe not, depends on what your intent is.

This may be because the (looking at the recent frontpage thread) HP6315 is a horrible phone, while the Treo is not too bad? :) One has to wonder where the Imate Jam and Blue-angel devices fit in also. In any case, if no lines are drawn at all (which I think is preferable) the Treo line sold about a million phones, while MS also sold about a million MS Smartphones. So it all balances out in the end.

Surur

[Ed Hansberry]

Voice-centric devices are NOT left out. They included the HP iPAQ h6315 -- a phone.
A phone doesn't make it voice centric. It makes it voice capable. Data capabilities on a smartphone don't make it data centric. It makes it data capable.

The HP 6315, PDA2K and 99.9% of all PPC Phones are data centric. 99.9% of smartphones are voice centric.

Has the treo been misclassified? Should it be considered a PDA with phone capabilities rather than a smartphone? I don't know. You could argue either side. pa1mOne is arguing it is a smartphone. It is called the "Treo 600 Smartphone" right on their web site. Maybe they want in that category for some marketing reason.

[Paragon]

Voice centric devices are out of this. That includes the Treo.

This makes the info very misleading I think. Treo's are a very big number for Palm. HTC Phone Edition devices are very large numbers as well....100s of thousands. Both are sales of devices that many of which would otherwise have been a standard PDA. Therefore they have a bearing on the outcome of the numbers shown.

Dave

[Ed@Brighthand]

Has the treo been misclassified? Should it be considered a PDA with phone capabilities rather than a smartphone? I don't know. You could argue either side. pa1mOne is arguing it is a smartphone. It is called the "Treo 600 Smartphone" right on their web site. Maybe they want in that category for some marketing reason.
The Treo line is a tough call. It's a good balance between phone and handheld functions, so deciding which group to include it in isn't easy. However, as Ed (the other Ed) says, palmOne calls it a smartphone, so I don't think anyone can protest that Gartner classifies it that way.

[TMann]

Has the treo been misclassified? Should it be considered a PDA with phone capabilities rather than a smartphone? I don't know. You could argue either side. pa1mOne is arguing it is a smartphone. It is called the "Treo 600 Smartphone" right on their web site. Maybe they want in that category for some marketing reason.
The Treo line is a tough call. It's a good balance between phone and handheld functions, so deciding which group to include it in isn't easy. However, as Ed (the other Ed) says, palmOne calls it a smartphone, so I don't think anyone can protest that Gartner classifies it that way.

I think the question of where to classify the Treo, the Blackberry's, the 6315, the various iMate's, etc. depends on which question your are answering. If the question is: Are sales of handhelds shifting from standard PDA's to voice-centric "smartphones"?, then clearly the Treo was designed to be a voice-centric device with strong PDA features. However, if the question that is being addressed is: How does the marketshare of the Palm OS, compared to Windows Mobile?, then I think it is only fair to include the Treo, plus all of the Windows Mobile devices like the iMate and the 6315 that run Windows Mobile 2003.

Remember that the "voice-centric" Treo runs the exact same OS, and uses the same software as the "data-centric" Tungsten line. This is different from the Windows Mobile world, where a Pocket PC (ie. 6315) is running a very different OS than a Windows Mobile Smartphone (ie. Motorola MPx 220.) It's a bit disingenuous for WM advocates to be trumpeting the defeat of the Palm OS by WM, when they aren't counting the Treo.

Just my 2 cents...

TMann

[Jonathan_w]

It should be noted that Gartner's numbers do not include palmOne's Treo 600 or 650 because they are considered smart phones rather than PDAs by Gartner. They did include the HP iPAQ h6315 though. The RIM figures don't include sales the new 7100 smart phone, but do include the rest of the BlackBerry line. I personally would have included the Treos, and left-out the more smartphone like RIM 7100. Would Treo sales have boosted palmOne above HP?

As of last year the treo 600 acounted for 28% of palm1 sales.