'Think Outside' President – Future PDAs Will All Include Phones

[Jonathon Watkins]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/06/21/bluetooth_keyboard/' target='_blank'>http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/0...tooth_keyboard/</a><br /><br /></div>The Register has a story up about the 'Think Outside' Bluetooth Stowaway folding keyboard. Now we've <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=254450">posted</a> about this a <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=256496">fair</a> few <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=254461">times</a> in the past week, but there's a twist to this particular report. The 'Think Outside' president Greg van der Dries was in London this week and had a few things to say, including that Bluetooth was still very expensive though coming down in price and that Europe was two years ahead of the US in terms of Bluetooth adoption. However, that wasn't the most interesting thing he said:<br /><br /><i>"Van der Dries insisted that the principal reasons for adopting Bluetooth are that it is more secure than infrared, and it is universal - he uses it with a Mac as well as with his SonyEricsson P900. It will run with a PC too, given either a Microsoft or Logitech Bluetooth keyboard hub and drivers. The keyboard ….. will launch with Symbian and Pocket PC drivers; PalmOS drivers are in the works but not yet ready for release. Van der Dries says that the choice of platforms is due to the shift he sees underway in the handheld market, away from PDAs and towards smartphones: "There's 10 million PDAs sold every year and the market is contracting, that's why we're running, not walking, towards the mobile phone platform. My prediction is that in five years you won't be able to buy a PDA that doesn't have a phone in it."</i><br /><br />Hmmm, that's an interesting predication to make, especially for the president of a company like Think Outside. You would think that they would know their market. :wink: However I still don't buy the argument that every PDA will have a built in phone in the future. :? There's a market for cheaper PDAs and leaving out the mobile phone circuitry allows smaller, lighter and cheaper PDAs with better battery life. Plus there's the old one device/two device argument. What’s your take?

[foldedspace]

The phone component won't add any real cost, weight or difference in size in a few years. And that way you always have wireless access to the web...and not just at Starbucks.

[Sven Johannsen]

A) How the heck is BT more secure than a limited range Line of Sight system.

B) BT is not inherently any more universal than anything else. It is a matter of standards adoption. 802.11b works just the same on Apple, WinCE, DOS, Linux, whatever, that adheres to the standard. IP is a standard that is widely accepted and implemented. IR could be universal if the OEMs agreed on a standard format for transmission. None of that ensures file compatibility of course.

C) beyond price, how about form factor? Cell phones are getting smaller all the time. In a couple of years you'll be able to stick one in your ear like a hearing aid. Somebody had better get real creative about display technology if that phone is going to have my PDA function as well. I guess I'm looking at it backwards, but I don't see a PDA being very useful much smaller than they are now, so if you are going to have a phone in it, you'll have to accept a bigger phone. Smartphones not withstanding, Browsing the web, reading an e-book, watching video on a postage stamp, or composing an e-mail or editing a document with T9 is not the PDA experience I'm looking for.

[surur]

C) beyond price, how about form factor? Cell phones are getting smaller all the time. In a couple of years you'll be able to stick one in your ear like a hearing aid. Somebody had better get real creative about display technology if that phone is going to have my PDA function as well. I guess I'm looking at it backwards, but I don't see a PDA being very useful much smaller than they are now, so if you are going to have a phone in it, you'll have to accept a bigger phone. Smartphones not withstanding, Browsing the web, reading an e-book, watching video on a postage stamp, or composing an e-mail or editing a document with T9 is not the PDA experience I'm looking for.

That is a stupid statement. There is no monolithic "phone" form factor, like all pocketpc's are slab-like rectangles. If a phone is going to substitute for your pda, it will of course have to have a similar form factor, ie like the pocketpc Phone edition devices which are now becoming alot more numerous.

And regarding cost, for people wanting a basic pda, they could probably do as well with a phone, and it would cost less.

I think there are a lot of people who are denying the passing away of their favourite concept (the stand alone pda) by making weak excuses e.g the two device argument or the cost argument, when the reality of what is happening is clear to any outsiders.

I am just glad the demise of the stand-alone pda will not mean the end of the pocketpc operating system, as this will go on in PPCPE. What would concern me (if it were not for devices such as the Mpx) was if smartphones took over, as the software is incompatible, the input options are limited, and the paradigm is different and very limited (ie its a phone stupid! Dont try and use it to change channels on your TV, or to record your bird sightings).

Surur

[Jonathon Watkins]

Now now Surur, play nice. :wink: I agree with Sven that I would prefer a PPC with added phone rather than a phone with added PDA qualities. In the end it's about the benefit/usefulness to you. With Infrared, Bluetooth and WiFi is there really such a thing as the 'stand alone' PDA? So in a few years time will every PDA have all of these, plus GSM, GPRS, 3/4G, Wireless USB, Wifi-MAX etc? No. Just as now there will be an ecosystem with different solutions for different price points and needs.

[Jonathon Watkins]

The phone component won't add any real cost, weight or difference in size in a few years. And that way you always have wireless access to the web...and not just at Starbucks.

Yes - if you think as a phone as a data carrier instead of a traditional voice carrier this makes sense. Add a Bluetooth headset and you're away. I'm just not convinced that all PDAs will have embedded 'phone' / 3/4G connections. Oh well, as long as they don't all have cameras. :wink:

[Jason Dunn]

A) How the heck is BT more secure than a limited range Line of Sight system.

Bluetooth employs frequency hopping, making it hard to tap into. Infrared, while mostly physically secure (limited range, line of sight) offers no protection from someone grabbing the signal and seeing what you're sending. I think that's his point. :-)

(remember there was that story a few years back about people using Palm units to break into IR-based car locks?)

[BradPPC]

I've read that about 50% of the size and weight of a PPC comes from the screen and the stuff necessary to drive the screen (including extra battery umph). I'm guessing PDAs in the future will have some form of fold-out or roll-up screen (something like www.eink.com ). When that day comes, the devices will shrink drastically, the power requirements will take a dive, and there won't be any reason not to include data and voice modules.

The other thing that we might see in the future is a more generic device that provides plug-in modules for the elements that the end user wants in the device. Oh, wait. I just had a Handspring moment there.

Brad

[Don't Panic!]

I'm a 2 device kind of guy myself. Sometimes you just can't bring a PPC sized device with you.

Don't Panic!
Bobby

[Don't Panic!]

But a smartphone would be cool if all you "need" are contacts. Guess I better check out smartphone thoughts, are there more than 2 models yet?

Don't Panic!
Bobby

[Sven Johannsen]

That is a stupid statement. There is no monolithic "phone" form factor, like all pocketpc's are slab-like rectangles. If a phone is going to substitute for your pda, it will of course have to have a similar form factor, ie like the pocketpc Phone edition devices which are now becoming alot more numerous.

Bit strong isn't that. Maybe you didn't get my point. There are basically two form factors today, the PPC phone edition, or the slab-like rectangle, and the cell phone form. Cell phones are getting smaller. I would suggest that you would have a tough time handing today's cell phone user a PPCPE and telling them that is your new phone. It's way too big, regardless of what else it can do, to a vast majority of phone users. If you can see that possibility, why would they buy a PPC with a phone in it, if they are going to want a phone as well. Say what you want about the phone pieces not costing 'anything', but that has not been the case up to now and I don't think it ever will be. More features mean higher price, regardless if they cost more to produce.

I just don't see the major PPC producers offerring only a with-phone model. There are just too many folks that wouldn't want the phone for whatever reason to not sell the same model, without the phone for $50 less.

[surur]

I apologise for saying what you said was stupid. I do however disagree with you. Are there any pocketpc's without infra-red. Why not, it must add a few pence? Some features are too cheap not to exclude. GSM circuitry is going into that area, and if it all becomes one-chip ( so you can put it in your ear) it will be small and cheap enough for a trivial addition to your pocketpc.

What will cause the demise of the stand-alone pda is not that is cheaper to make one with a phone in it, but the manufacturers all moving to a different, faster growing area. If HP no longer makes any without GSM in it, where would you buy them otherwise.

Just remember, many technologies have been displaced in the past by others which are less convenient, but offer other advantages e.g horse and cart, bicycles, propeller aeroplanes, analog cellphones etc. These devices had their advantages (e.g lower cost, more range), but their competitors had more power and features, and now they have been relegated to niche markets, where previously they were mass markets.

Another fine recent example is the replacement of greyscale lcd's with colour lcd's. There is no arguing the advantages of grey scale LCD's (much much better battery life, better contrast, better readability outside, much much cheaper) yet colour screens replaced them in only 5 years. I dont think even palm makes a grey scale pda anymore. People who want the 3 month standby time of a palm V now have no choice but recharge very week or even every day. They can not buy any new devices without sacrificing any of the grey scale advantages. Yet the market has decided that colour is where the money is, and went that way. The alternative would have been the original zire route (very cheap pocketpc with very low margins) but that is not a very attractive route.

As technologies become cheaper a manufacturer has to add features to maintain their selling price.

That means RIP for the PPC.

Surur

PS: This just ripped from another thread regarding a cheap ppcpe (bold added by me)

Well, mine should be here tomorrow. Here's my thoughts on why I purchased it:

1) Convergence. Tired of lugging my Nokia 3650 & T3 around.
2) Price - $385-$50 = $335.00 for a PDA/Phone...yipee!
3) Function - PPC (Goodness) + Phone.
4) No Camera - NOT ALLOWED - where I work...a nice PDA/Phone W/O a D*$% cheap useless camera. AWESOME!
5) SDIO - Wi-FI when & where I need it.
6) Bluetooth? Don't care now that the 2 things I previously needed bluetooth for are together forever.

All in all, its a great device...its amazing how small it really is. Light too. Compared it to the Treo...decided for $115.00 less, I get a bigger screen, more processor power, PPC software...it was a no brainer.

I really had no interest in the keypad flip cover...from some early reviews, it was more in the way, than useful. I invested in a nice Martin Fields screen protector instead.

The XDA III looks nice...wonder how much it'll cost...that's also a potential future upgrade as well. I did see that the Audiovox isn't listed on the AT&T Wireless site anymore...is that because they're sold out? Or b/c Audiovox killed it already...I hope its the former...b/c its really a nice device.

[GreenBoy2]

Ok - here is my two peneth' worth

As i am sure we here all agree, the PDA is cool, a great device that many of us couldnt bear to be without. I will also go as far as to guess that at least 90% of the PDA users hee have a mobile phone too. Now - nobody realy goes anywhere without one of those either.

So logic dictates - 'why take two bottles into the shower' to quote Saatchi and Saatchi, and combine them both into one unit.

- Oh thats been done already!

So, the question that you are probably asking here is - does he have a point? :?

Well Yes.

The mobile phone market thrives, and indeed lives on the ability to get the joe in the street to trade in his mobile every year or so and splah out on the latest 'cooler' model currently being promoted. A few bucks down and you walk out with a new toy, and the mobile phone company have you tied into a contract for another 12 months etc.

Now I dont know about you but my cash reserves (read wife and kids here) dont allow me to swap out my PDA every year, and the phone manufacturers and the network providers kow this.

SO if the product is more expensive then the average joe (I count myself in here) is not likely to upgrade so often and after the initial tie-in is likely to jump ship as well.

Are we starting to understand why the pocket pc phone has been rather slow to take off so far? At this time they are still only selling to the techno-kiddies and the corporate boys who think they need these toys - and do swap them for the latest every 12-18 months.

What the phone / PDA companies need in my opinion is a mobile phone expansion card for the PDA, combined with a quality (bluetooth?) hands free kit.

(Before you start - I know these exist already but they whan did you see one in the T-Mobile shop? and they are not made by the sexy phone companies - Nokia, Siemens etc etc)

And if that came with added 'phone' functionality for my PDA I would condsider that as a real option.

So lastly - the PDA is the ultimate in Plug n Play technology - so lets just do that.

GreenBoy[/i]

[surur]

The mobile phone market thrives, and indeed lives on the ability to get the joe in the street to trade in his mobile every year or so and splah out on the latest 'cooler' model currently being promoted. A few bucks down and you walk out with a new toy, and the mobile phone company have you tied into a contract for another 12 months etc.

Now I dont know about you but my cash reserves (read wife and kids here) dont allow me to swap out my PDA every year, and the phone manufacturers and the network providers kow this.


But what if your phone is your pda , or other way around, and it only cost £200 (what I paid for my wife's t610) to get the very latest PDA with all the latest tech, because its also a phone. You can get an XDA 2 now for only £200 with a contract. Would you then replace it every year?

Surur

[GreenBoy2]

But what if your phone is your pda , or other way around, and it only cost £200 (what I paid for my wife's t610) to get the very latest PDA with all the latest tech, because its also a phone. You can get an XDA 2 now for only £200 with a contract. Would you then replace it every year?

No - £200 is more than I pay for software for my PDA every year. And i would rather pay for the better software than blow all my money on the device.

The point being that the device with a few upgrades will last a lot longer than a year and is greatly enhanced over the basic cool features by adding software at aditional costs.

You can pick up new phones for only a few pounds or nothing if you hit the right deal, which is infinately cheaper.

So I gues at the moment all you actualy need is a Bluetooth phone, PDA and headset combo and you are away!

The point I was making (badly :( ) is that the PDA is the one component that should be at the heart of a system of plug and play features. As long as the basic PDA has Bt and WiFi it can be a phone, a (decent?) camera / Video, Media playing wonder toy suplimented by lovely upgradeable / disposable toys at lower cost than buying dedicated devices for each of these things.

Easier on the pocket all round!

But thats just my view... :D

GreenBoy

[allenalb]

i am willing to make a prediction right now that seems to be contrary to all of the other pda/smartphone users. i am also 110% certain that this will be true.


all pda's will include a phone, because phones will be too cheap not to include and because people will become more datacentric and require access to their info at all times, however this phone will almost never be used as a phone, it will primarily be a modem (with the option to use it as a phone if necessary).

in addition, the cellphone networks and manufacturers will eventually get their heads out of their @$$3$ and realize that people will pay a premium for a PHONE that is JUST A PHONE as long as it ALWAYS WORKS!!!. these actual FUNCTIONING PHONES will get smaller and smaller and will eventually just become earpieces.


i would say that pda's will eventually be replaced with some sort of sunglass type dispaly, except that this will lead to the extinction of the human race overnight as thousands of people try to talk on their cell earpieces, while navigating an pocket excel 2009 spreadsheet, listening to mp14's, and playing bust 'em all while crashing their cars into the fuel cell manufacturing plant.

[ctmagnus]

these actual FUNCTIONING PHONES will get smaller and smaller and will eventually just become earpieces.

Zoolander, anyone?