Brighthand: There Can Be Only One (Of Each)

[Pat Logsdon]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://brighthand.com/article/last_two' target='_blank'>http://brighthand.com/article/last_two</a><br /><br /></div>Steve Bush has written an interesting article that predicts the death of everyone in the PDA market but HP and palmOne:<br /><i>"Twenty years ago a small group of engineers at Apple began dreaming up the next revolutionary device. It wasn't the first time they'd embarked on a mission such as that. They'd done it nearly a decade before with the Macintosh, a device that made it easy for the common man to harness the power of a computer. </i>[So the Macintosh came out in 1974? ;) -PL]<i> But Mac sales were quickly drying up, thanks in part to competition from a host of new PCs running a competing operating system from Microsoft called Windows, and they needed something new, something futuristic to eventually replace it as Apple's breadwinner. Something no one had considered. What they came up with was the Newton. Although Casio and Tandy would eventually beat it to market with a device of their own, called the Zoomer, Apple, and its Newton, is credited with pioneering the PDA industry. </i>[Actually, the <a href="http://www.betterproductdesign.net/npi/products/palm.htm">Zoomer</a> was created by Jeff Hawkins of Palm Computing, and it was manufactured by Casio and distributed by Tandy. -PL] <br /><br /><i>As the Newton floundered, a much less ambitious device from another California-based company, tiny Palm Computing, Inc., was flourishing. Less-expensive and with less features than the Newton, the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history." </i>[Sorry to keep jumping in, but I don't think this is true - Walkman WM-2 in 1981, anyone? (<a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/online/15/smallthing.html">Reference</a>) -PL]"<br /><br />Steve goes on to say that palmOne and HP will be the only PDA manufacturers left standing. I'm sorry, but I don't buy it. Dell is mentioned in passing, but is discounted as a niche player in direct corporate sales. Steve thinks that the future belongs to smart phones, communication devices and single-purpose devices. <br /><br />Personally, I see no reason why new and existing manufacturers can't create increasingly converged devices based on the existing operating systems. Just because palmOne has been reduced to one major hardware manufacturer is no reason to assume that the same fate will apply to Microsoft-based devices. Dell should not be discounted, and neither should Motorola, ASUS or Toshiba, much less the lower volume devices hitting the markets from Mitac, Audiovox, and possibly even <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=227452">Benq</a>. Where's the competing hardware from palmOne? What do you think? :mrgreen:

[foldedspace]

Companies like Dell will want to have PDAs in their portfolio, if they want to continue selling to corporate customers. And companies that cater to the Japanese and other Asian markets will continue to innovate, because their is a consumer demand for tiny pieces of technology. If the 'killer app' every shows it's face, then the demand among American consumers will spike....but I don't see HP being the only maker of PPCs. Especially since their prices are much higher than others.

[Ryan Joseph]

Nah, I don't think so. The handheld industry, like every other industry, thrives on competition. The only way HP would become the sole PPC maker would be if customers stopped buying the other brands. I see people with PPCs all the time and not all of them are iPAQs. :roll:

And how can you say that the world will be dominated by smartphones and the like? Pocket PC manufacturers aren't going to let other devices take them over. There will be new innovations in the PPC market to make them more appealing.

I fully believe that in five years, PPCs won't look anything like they do today and will be able to do way more than they currently can, but they'll still be Pocket PCs (and Palms :)).

And they'll still be produced by a number of different companies.

[this has been Ryan's Report on the Future. Tune in next time for Ryan's two cents on the Past] :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

[Deslock]

Uhuh. This isn't the first unlikely prediction (http://www.brighthand.com/article/2004_-_The_Year_of_VGA) made by brighthand. But let's be honest... the sensationalistic stories at brighthand (and ppcthoughts) generally get the most readership/discussion. Sad but true.

[peterawest]

I’m sure that some of the manufacturers will fall by the wayside, if only due to the high cost of innovating. However, I think Dell is here to stay. I deal with lots of Pocket PC owners and I’m seeing a lot of Dell devices out there, right alongside of the HP models.

Now that a chip is available that will allow the hardware manufacturers to add Wireless-G, I think that will be one of the next pushes for new models.

As long as Microsoft continues to roll out new features in the OS, and makes that available to all hardware manufacturers, we should continue to see new and interesting devices rolling out to consumers. As for the business market, I think HP has a huge lead, from what I’ve seen.

No matter whether you’re buying a device as a consumer or as an IT worker, people like to stay with a brand they know and trust. If you buy Toshiba notebooks, you might give first consideration to Toshiba Pocket PC’s. Likewise with Dell, HP and (one day maybe) Gateway. If you’re comfortable with the manufacturer, why wouldn’t you give their model a closer look? That kind of thinking will keep at least a few of the manufacturers in the Pocket PC camp.

[Ryan Joseph]

the sensationalistic stories at brighthand (and ppcthoughts) generally get the most readership/discussion. Sad but true.

Yeah, you're right there. But, really, PPCT doesn't come up with the sensationalistic stories...they just report on what others are saying. Which I think is great!

They keep us up to date on all the news, which is exactly what they should be doing.

And, sensationalistic or not, I like reading what others predict about the future. We all have our opinions about the future and, whether or not it could ever come to pass, reading what others think is very interesting. If nothing else, it makes you think in a new direction.

[and there's Ryan's Report on the Present. This could become a daily column] :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

[Don Sorcinelli]

The argument that is made for Dell leaving the market is exactly why Dell *will* remain. Dell generates a lot of revenue from direct corporate sales. As long as HP (which does the same) remains in the Windows Mobile market and leverages Windows Mobile devices as part of "bundled" corporate sales, Dell will remain in the market in order to compete directly. I actually believe that the actions of both HP and Toshiba (yes, Toshiba does the same leveraging) were significant in "tipping the scales" at Dell to move into the market in the first place. Remember, the introduction of the Axim occurred at around the same time as Dell's decision to move into the printer market (and cut out HP, eliminating a common sales obstacle).

BTW - I tend to also believe that the whole direct corporate sales angle is what has made the rumors of Toshiba leaving the market to be just that - rumors.

DonS

[astro_turf]

I apologize, but there is a mis-quote, it is the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history.

The actual article makes no such claim, it skirts that claim by saying '...one of the fatest selling...'

[Jonathon Watkins]

I apologize, but there is a mis-quote, it is the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history.

The actual article makes no such claim, it skirts that claim by saying '...one of the fatest selling...'

Hi Astro_Truf - welcome and good to see you. 8)

I visited Brighthand just now - and this IS the quote:

the PalmPilot became the fastest selling consumer electronics device in history

I'm not sure where you got your quote from, but the article Pat quoted is very clear about that.

Personally I reckon that there is more than enough room in this PDA pond for more than 2. The more the merrier. :)

[PPCRules]

I think where this all comes from is Steve of Brighthand observing with interest that the Palm OS market has been reduced to one major player; we've all found this interesting to ponder. As Brighthand strives to give fair share to all PDA platforms, he could not pursue the thought process we here have had, namely that this is a sign of Palm OS continuing it's slide into insignificance. So eliminating that explanation of where this is taking the PDA market, he is suggesting that this is the eventual course of each platform and picked HP as the winner in the end (which is not too much of a stretch once you confine your thinking to this course of events). This of course eliminates a lot of factors that differentiate the Palm OS and WM/PPC OS markets, not the least of which are the fundamental differences in the OS itself and the [previously mentioned here] tie-ins with the major PC manufacturers.

I find it a lot easier to see each of a lot of Pocket PC vendors slicing up the PDA market, with Palm's share ranking in 4th or 5th place in a year or two. Consumers (in America, at least) seem to always favor having two suppliers (case in point, why does Apple computer still exist?), but make it tough for those in 3rd place and beyond. Steve might be drawing from this principle, but I think it is misapplied in this case. HP will likely be the leading player for the foreseeable future, but Toshiba and Dell will battle for second place, and all the other PocketPCs and PalmOne will have a tough time.

And I think PalmOS now having only one major player is a unique situation. Sony leaving the market (remember also, this is only US; maybe Europe too?) had more to do with forces within Sony itself, not marketplace forces that insist there is only one player. Had Sony not been such a hard driver, there would have been a third place player strong enough to rise up and claim second place. And if they weren't currently weak internally, they could have slowed product introductions and picked the more profitable areas to focus on.

[Jonathon Watkins]

I find it a lot easier to see each of a lot of Pocket PC vendors slicing up the PDA market, with Palm's share ranking in 4th or 5th place in a year or two. Consumers (in America, at least) seem to always favor having two suppliers (case in point, why does Apple computer still exist?), but make it tough for those in 3rd place and beyond. Steve might be drawing from this principle, but I think it is misapplied in this case. HP will likely be the leading player for the foreseeable future, but Toshiba and Dell will battle for second place, and all the other PocketPCs and PalmOne will have a tough time.

Now that analysis ring a lot more true.

Lets hope Toshiba and Dell step up to the W2003SE bar that HP have set with their plethora of new PPC releases. One 'perfect' unit is worth any amount of 'near misses'. (Now, in another thread lets discuss the 'perfect' unit again). :wink:

[wiredguy]

I wonder how many people thought that IBM would be the only "personal computer" maker 20 years ago. There is always room for more innovation and competition... the idea that others would just bow out of possible revenues confuses me.

[Paragon]

One of the reasons Steve gives for there eventually being only two players, PlamOne, and HP is the rise in sales of Smartphones, and converged devices......Hmmm as of today June, 4, 2004, HP doesn't even make one of these devices, yet they are going to kill companies like, Samsung, Motorola, Nokia, and the eleventy million OEMs selling into the Asian market that we here in North America hardly here about.

Dave

[Horus]

It is ridiculous to suggest this.
Why would it be more true in the PDA space than in cars, cookies, televisions, or PCs?
This is not how economies function.

[Gremmie]

Dell should not be discounted, and neither should Motorola, ASUS or Toshiba, much less the lower volume devices hitting the markets from Mitac, Audiovox, and possibly even Benq (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=227452).

Toshiba may be leaving the US market, Brighthand wrote about it and I tend to agree that Toshiba is leaving. I disagree with Steve that Dell will leave. They have set ambitious corporate goals to acheive more than 20 billion in revenue. The only way to acheive that is through diversity of products (e.g., printers, SAN, PDAs, etc.) However, Audiovox, Mitax and ASUS are small enough not to really count--PalmOS also has similar vendors that don't, and never will, matter.

[Gremmie]

This is not how economies function.

Yes, they can functions like this. A vendor will enter the market place until profitability equals zero. For instance, high competition can drive profits to below zero, thus companies exit the market place. However, I still think Dell will stay in the market to meet their wider goals.

[farnold]

Just another example of attempted manipulation... I put up a manipulative statement to generate interest rather than looking at facts. Fact is that PalmOS is pretty much out in the cold now that SONY moves away from it. And fact is as well that there is a range of vendors offering devices based on Windows Mobile... HP being the leading one with no doubt. But the reason why Windows Mobile will be successful in the future and PALM won't is quite simply the fact to have choice and competition.

Following Steve's logic we would need to conclude that there will be only DELL offering PCs, just because APPLE is a one-manufaturer-show.

[Paula]

I say Hogwash! :D

If this line of thinking were logical then there would only be one or 2 car, TV, appliance, etc manufacturers in the world. Eventually like all new tools (the PPC is still a new gadget) the market will grow. Not every household had a TV or car when they first came out. Once the prices come down and the marketing increases and the technology is intergrated with everyday life for the needs of the masses, even granny won't be without a PPC in her pocket. :lol:

Paula

[ethancaine]

Okay, seriously, are we really arguing about the validity of an article that can't even be quoted without being corrected for basic facts? :grumble:

&lt;faith in viable discussion waivering>

In my honest opinion, this whole discussion should have ended with a bunch of us agreeing with PPCRules:

Consumers (in America, at least) seem to always favor having two suppliers (case in point, why does Apple computer still exist?), but make it tough for those in 3rd place and beyond. Steve might be drawing from this principle, but I think it is misapplied in this case.

Well said, and thank you for your well thought analogy. :way to go:

[heliod]

I think where this all comes from is Steve of Brighthand observing with interest that the Palm OS market has been reduced to one major player; we've all found this interesting to ponder.

I think this is exactly the point. It is all a question of innacurate view of the market. He took the PalmOS world and made a parallel to the Apple world, and forgot that at the same time there was an insignificant machine called IBM PC that changed the whole standard of how personal computers were seen. How many companies sell PCs today? How many companies sell UNIX machines?

The point at that time is that Apple's business model was less fit (or I would risk saying totally unfit) for the market of computers, they were trying to avoid clones as much as possible. And today we know that some of the companies in Taiwan making "illegal" clones of IBM PCs at that time belonged to IBM itself (or had parts of their stock in IBM's hands), a very smart move from the hardware maker.

In my point of view this is just another sensacionalistic story by Brighthand and it doesn't deserve that much of a discussion.

[bjornkeizers]

Yep, just another 'quality' piece of reporting from the good folks at brighthand [/sarcasm]

[foldedspace]

Where I work, I have to get THREE quotes for whatever I'm looking to purchase. Single-source is possible, but it's rather arduous to get those approved. The only exception is Apple of course, but they never meet my specs anyway. :)

[Jonathon Watkins]

Okay, seriously, are we really arguing about the validity of an article that can't even be quoted without being corrected for basic facts? :grumble:

True, the article has some pretty glaring holes in it, but it does pose some interesting questions, however imperfectly they phrased it.

I thought Pat did well in pointing out the flaws in what he was quoting. Nicely done. :wink:

Anyway, anything can be the basis of starting a discussion, but as this was on a major PDA site, it was de-facto newsworthy. You don't have to agree with something to mark it up as news.

[twalk]

Just came from lakersground.net, read this thread, and was wondering if I had actually changed sites... Just change a word here and there, and you get about the same replies as a nba fan site...

There are really only 4 areas that pdas are used in (to any significant extent). PIM, laptop replacement, entertainment, and portable vertical apps. New handtops (oqo, etc) look like a much better solution than pdas for laptop replacement and vertical apps. The smartphone is taking over PIMs. And entertainment? GB, PSP, ipod, etc.

Why bring up what everyone already knows? Because it really needs to be pointed out that pdas are 2nd best for all of that, and you really have to have a need for more than one of those categories before a pda is a reasonable choice. (Otherwise it's just another high-tech toy.)

That directly leads to the sales figures, which are pretty dismal. Yes, PPC has caught up with Palm in worldwide sales, but so what? It's very unlikely that PPC will outright destroy Palm, but even if it does, it just ends up with a shrinking market in which everyone is losing money. Palm is even moving away from the pda market. They're going to shift their R&D from the current 1/3 smartphone, 2/3 pda, and move to at least 2/3 to smartphones. (P1 has the current best selling smartphone in the US, and nearly all their profit last quarter came from treo600 sales.) Heck, even most Best Buys are going to stop selling pdas.

Will there only be 2 players? Dell will use them as a loss leader, so that's 3. Sony still sells ~0.5M/year PalmOS pdas in Japan. HP/Dell/P1 will likely be outsold by another player in China. Then again, there are rumors that Dell will buy P1, and that HP will license PalmOS (for smartphones). There's also no guarantee that MS will bother to keep around the PPC pda form factor (handtops w/ XP would actually be profitable for them). 2 players? No, but it might as well be.