Some Thoughts on Sony Exiting the Market... [Archive]

Jason Dunn

06-01-2004, 04:00 PM

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.bargainpda.com/default.asp?newsID=2082' target='_blank'>http://www.bargainpda.com/default.asp?newsID=2082</a> </div>Sony doesn't exit markets lightly, so this is a very significant statement for them to cede a market to the competition. I've always been impressed by their hardware and industrial design, so I mourn the loss of them as a competitor in this space. The UX50 is an impressive device from a hardware standpoint, and I believe it's partially what drove Microsoft to adopt a square-screen resolution and clamshell devices with keyboards as possibilities for their OEMs. This means it's up to palmOne to keep the Pocket PC OEMs on their toes in the design department. Think they're up to it? I have my doubts... It's funny how things change - a year or two ago I was predicting that Sony would buy Palm and kill off the other Palm OS licensees and the only Palm OS devices on the market would be running on Sony hardware. Instead, we have a complete reversal - the only significant Palm OS devices are now going to be made by palmOne (now that they've acquired Handspring). Garmin is a niche player. BargainPDA seems to think that Sony will be back, but I'm not so sure. I think they develop their mobile gaming devices to have PIM features, but not much else. I don't expect to see Sony back to doing a pure-play PDA, ever. UPDATE: I was reading a Canalys report that came in this morning, and they had this to say about Sony: "Among the top 10 worldwide vendors, Sony has probably suffered the most from the decline in the North American handheld market, which accounts for the vast majority of its CLIÉ business, with shipments almost halving year-on-year. "Being very consumer focused, Sony's handheld business hasn't really benefited much from the general upturn in business mobility spending, while at the same time what were once distinguishing features, such as integrated cameras and MP3 playback, have appeared on more devices, including mobile phones, from other vendors," Lashford added." Seems to reinforce what we're seeing with Sony now, doesn't it?

twalk

06-01-2004, 05:49 PM

No one is making any money shipping PDAs. Not Palm, not PPC. Combine this with a shrinking market, and you'd have to be insane to keep throwing money at this.

If Sony gets back into the PalmOS game, my guess is it will only be with high-end PalmOS 6 smartphones. Otherwise they'll still cover the functionality a PDA gives with smartphones, the PSP, and palmtop sized WinXP computers, all three of which give good profit margins.

06-01-2004, 06:02 PM

Let´s see the good thing: it´s likely that Sony will make cool mini PC´s, ala OQO, and someday will be practical. Instant on, lots of memory, BT and WiFi... and of course, IE. Let´s be practical: no PDA can surf the web as a real computer can.

But don´t worry, we will still have a PDA in our pocket in the future, and it will do PIM as today... only that it will be a phone also, with GSM, EDGE, GPRS, and who knows what else. At this time, i´m excited about what sony will do to replace the SE P900. And i´m pretty sure they´ll make something great.

lapchinj

06-01-2004, 06:03 PM

Falstaff

06-01-2004, 06:47 PM

This might seem like a stupid question but... I also liked Sony's hardware but the combination of hardware, Software and OS they came in second. Why couldn't they just take the MS OS and put it on their hardware.

Ummm... the reason they didn't use PPC OS is because they wanted to be extremely innovative. PPC (prior to SE) tied the OEMs to a 320x240 screen, no landscape mode, among other restrictions. Clies had high-res screens, landscape mode, and more. They had to use an OS as flexible as PalmOS. You can point to Toshiba and say they broke teh restrictions with the e805, but that's only if you use a hack.

I agree strongly with Jason about the competition provided by Sony. I've been hoping that Sony wasn't leaving the market since I heard the rumors, even though I won't leave WM now because of software investments. People here may be cheering because a POS compitor is gone, showing the superiority of the WM OS. </sarcasm> But who do you think drove Toshiba and others to make VGA screens? Sony (and Pa1mOne) have had very nice 320x320 and 320x480 screens while we PPC users have been stuck with 320x240. Look at the screen size of the new Clies, I don't like the lack of a D-pad, but those devices are just a screen, no wasted edge space. They are innovators, and they were in the opposite camp (POS). PPC users really should be hoping that Pa1mOne starts introducing new, advanced, cutting-edge devices.

Zack Mahdavi

06-01-2004, 06:50 PM

Why couldn't they just take the MS OS and put it on their hardware.

Sony, like many other hardware vendors, doesn't get along very well with Microsoft. In fact, in recent years, Sony has been trying to cut ties with Microsoft. I read a CNet article in 2001 that said Sony is working on their own distribution of Linux, which it will distribute with the Vaio line. I don't know if Sony is still working on it, or if they dropped the project, but one thing is for sure: Sony hates Microsoft.

pdagal

06-01-2004, 07:34 PM

It's funny that Canalys says their sales halved, while Gartner (we called them for a phone conference about the Sony departure) says that they had 25% of the NA market last year and 20% this year. Makes you wonder where all these numbers come from!

torok

06-01-2004, 07:37 PM

Sony hates Microsoft.

Sony doesn't hate Microsoft any more then they hate any company that isn't them. They have stuck with a completely propietary system for the entire life of the company, and it has sunk them so many times I can't even count. It's a never ending story of Sony having supior hardware, then developing some crappy software in house, closing it completly so it will always be inferior, and refusing to use any other solution long after better ones exist.

Betamax is the classic example, but ATRAC is a better and more recent one. That codec has been surpased in compression quality by EVERYTHING else currently on the market, yet Sony, even now 20 years after the codec's inseption, only releases devices that use ATRAC exclusively. Let's hope this opens up a spot in the market for someone better.

EDIT: Okay, I realize that PalmOS isn't Sony either, and therefor this whole post is worthless. Sorry, I just got a little carried away.

Crimguy

06-01-2004, 07:37 PM

Palm has very good products out these days, and I'd argue that they were doing a better job than Sony as of late at getting affordable products that buyers want.

They have arguably the best pda/phone in the Treo 600, and their units are sporting very nice displays, keyboards, bluetooth/wifi, etc.

Is Palm's recent innovation the product of Sony alone? I don't think so. While Sony did more for the Palm, it has been the
market that has provided the innovation. Sony didn't add features in a vacuum. PPC venders have been doing the same, and Palm IMHO has the groundwork to continue the trend towards decent products.

While I prefer my 3970, I cant help but see that it's been a while since Palm's lineup was as drab as my shoes.

Mark Johnson

06-01-2004, 08:48 PM

...it´s likely that Sony will make cool mini PC´s, ala OQO, and someday will be practical.

Like:
http://www.dynamism.com/u70/

I know I want one! It's VERY expensive, but at the same time, the truly "full-functionality" you get from an XP installation would be dramatically more useful than PPC.

To me, the size of of an e800/4-inch VGA PPC is so big I can't pocket it anymore. If I have to carrying a unit in a backpack or case, it might as well be "the real deal." If I my choice is to have a "can't pocket" a 4-inch VGA PocketPC, then I might as well choose a "can't pocket" 5-inch SVGA TabletPC.

You are right that they will have to fix XP's abysmal suspend instabillity and slow resume times though before this really could replace my iPaq.

tthiel

06-01-2004, 10:14 PM

Although I was not a huge fan of Sony's recent PDA's this is not good news for consumers. Microsofts lackluster support of the Pocket PC platform is just going to get worse the less competition they have. Maybe now that the Tablet PC market seems to have failed (again) they will put some resources into Pocket PC.

jbachandouris

06-01-2004, 10:30 PM

I personally go back and forth between the two camps (Palm-Pocket PC). The one thing I still like better is Palm screens. Yes I know that Toshiba made a VGA (too expensive!) and others are coming (when?). The problem is that since I owned a T3, I have never been satisfied with Pocket PC screens (I own a 4155).

Since I happen to be one of those people who seriously underuse their PDA's, it really would not matter which device I chose, but I am still disturbed at the continuous shrinking of the market :<.

ruarch5

06-02-2004, 01:03 AM

Sony have a new way of thinking. Losing lots and lots of mony can do that to companies...even Sony.

Those skeptical about a Sony running PPC, check out their new mobile Video player....it plays MP3s. Natively. If they've finally realised that the market dictates what kind of products they should make, then It wont be long before we see a Sony "Vaio" Clie.

A quick poll....A Sony PPC or an Ipaq PPC?

HAve a play with a Tosh...imagine a Sony "Style" body around that screen, decent gaming buttons, dual wireless, a detachable analog joypad...and the flexibility of SE.

06-02-2004, 01:14 AM

I never owned a Clie, thought about it a few times but never did because of Memory Stick. I always liked the clamshells, especially when there was the chance that CF cards could be used. The latest clamshell though, the UX was a poor copy of the Sharp C-Series so it seemed then as though Sony were losing their way.

Shame to see them go as they always pushed the POS to it's limits. Palms would still be very boring if not for Sony.

jlp

06-02-2004, 03:17 AM

zipmail

06-02-2004, 05:43 AM

lapchinj

06-02-2004, 05:59 AM

PPC users really should be hoping that Pa1mOne starts introducing new, advanced, cutting-edge devices.
I think that will be very hard to do. You need money (a lot of it) to do cutting edge stuff and the only one left is MS. They drop billions of dollars each year into R&D and most companies don't even make close to a Billion dollars gross. Unfortunately I think we’re looking at a one horse horse race.

When MS wants to do something they just pore on the green and they usually have no problem catching up and then owning the market – that’s a proven fact. I would just hope that they would have some incentive to come up with some worthwhile improvements (screen for instance) even if there isn’t anyone left to put out of business.

Jeff-

ruarch5

06-02-2004, 06:24 AM

Ms has already improved their OS to complement better hardware. The just released second edition supports VGA resolution...twice as good as any top end Clie. The new OS also allows for screen rotation on the fly. It'll take about three months for these improvements to actually become a factor in the consumers purchasing descisions...but that's no too long I guess. I really hope they do start making PPC PDAs...I'd have to change brands if that were the case...but some Sony products really are droolworthy...

Fuster

06-02-2004, 01:58 PM

I see this as more Sony switching their approach to the market, rather than quitting the market outright.

The Clie range is midway between the Sony U series subnotebooks and the Sony Ericsson P900 (both already mentioned in this thread). Smartphones are already starting to squeeze the PDA market and in the P900 Sony has stakes in one of the better smartphone offerings. At the high end they have their U series, which (although less pocketable than PDAs) are portable, powerful and sexy.

The form factor of a PDA is handy but will likely lose out to similarly sized or slightly smaller mobile phones as these grow smarter. For serious computing the PDA remains just a little *too* small and so the U series looks to me like a wiser long-term bet. I don't see what Sony have to gain by pushing out Clies into a squeezed PDA market when their devices are the ones contributing to that squeezing process and so I'm not particularly surprised or aghast.

Expect the P900's successor to do more for you and the U series to get more affordable. I don't think you've seen the last of Sony.

Deslock

06-02-2004, 02:29 PM

Will Sony release new models in the USA next year? I doubt it... I always figured that they came out with a PDA to slow any potential push by Microsoft in the mobile entertainment market. With the PSP coming, I'm not surprised to see a strategy shift (though I dunno why they announced it when the PSP is still 6+ months off).

It's definitely bad news for Palm. But they were in trouble already... the "Die Palm, Die" camp said they'd go under in 1998... then it was 1999... then it was 2000... then 2001... etc... while those estimates were grossly premature, Palm's days have definitely been numbered for some time. The Treo600 sold well in the USA and might've bought them more time, but Palm will start to fall rapidly once the market share favors PPC (and we're on the threshold of that now).

It's too bad because I was hoping the competition would force Microsoft to address the Activesync, alarm, memory management, and installation issues (and perhaps make CE/PPC/Windows Mobile more responsive and less temperamental). Now I don't see that happening :-(

Felix Torres

06-02-2004, 03:08 PM

The phone/PDA hybrid is indeed a growing sector - and many will question the need to have a smartphone and a PDA in the same pocket. But, after trying that solution I decided for me that it is a combination of both that still works best. What I need is an easier way to sync both my semi-smartphone, PDA and PC.

The funny thing is that the convergence of Smartphone+PDA will have *less* effect of the corporate PDA market than the consumer side since a lot of companies (most?) are more likely to pay for an employee's pure PDA than for their cellphone or even a phone-enabled PDA.

Which shows in the product lines of corporate-focus PDA vendors like HP and DELL and explains why the consumer-oriented PALM camp got hit by the convergence first.

Best guess at this point is that if Smartphones hurt Palm more than PPC, the converse will likely be true when the mini-tablets start coming down in price; mini-tablets will have more of an impact on high-end PPC corporate sales than they will on Palm's consumer sales.

Of the two alternatives, I'd rather be a PPC vendor, though, since Smartphones are subsidized hardware sales and TabletPCs aren't.
At least you don't have to compete with artificially low up-front prices.

Looked at from this point of view, Sony would see no reason in competing with itself (Clie vs Sony-Ericson) since their corporate sales have never amounted to a big part of the Clie business to start with. Hence, they move their consumer-focus new product efforts to the smartphone side and drop Clie.

On the flip-side, if Sony has any ambitions of going into the corporate side, they may be more likely to try to compete with the minitablets instead of with PPCs.

So, yeah; this looks like the canary in the mineshaft, alright; PDA vendors are in fact getting squeezed out of the market as envisioned by MS.
Still don't think PDAs will completely disappear but it looks like its time for the product to evolve or be marginalized.

jlp

06-02-2004, 09:49 PM

Two years ago when the first OQO prototype was presented at WinHEC 2002 I predicted, or rather suggested, that it (and other competing products) would kill PDAs as we know them now.

Again last January I suggested in a question-like sentence: "How long before PDAs (PocketPCs/Palms, etc.) become extinct?" (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=22922&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=oqo+kill)

"With smartphones becoming more and more powerful [...] and with workstations shrinkind down [...] to PDA size (OQO, Tiqit, Antelope Tech, Intel, [NEC, FlipStart, Sony] etc.), how long do you think before PDAs as we now know them (Palm/PocketPCs) will become [extinct]??"

I was of the rare ones who could see this coming shortly!! Almost 90% denied it answering it would take more than 3 years (41%) or would never happen (47%).

Sony's main interest in working with Palm, I believe, was to gain much wider market acceptance with their -also doomed- MemorySTINK format. At the time MS was absolutely intransigeant in a CF only expansion slot.

6-7 years after its introduction, 99.9% of electronic devices that use the MemorySH!T format are still Sony products only.

In a sort of cross licence deal with Palm, Sony was tu use the PalmOS and Palm was to use the MemorySINK slot; as we now know Palm abandoned the MemorySICK slot to use the SD instead.

To go back to Sony demise in the PDA business, like some others here I believe they want to concentrate on the future PSP (again filled with proprietary stuff) and their release a few days ago of a sort of OQO competitor (tho 50% more expensive, bigger, heavier with poor battery life, albeit more powerful) make me believe they see no future in todays PDAs (OQO and the like are tomorrow's PDAs 8)).

In the same topic, some posts/threads on these boards put forward the lack of commitment from MS in the PPC platform.

Since 4 years now, a verrrrry long time in the computing world, Pocket Word & Excel have seen ab-so-lu-te-ly no improvement!!

In the same time desktop Word has seen 2 major revisions!!

There were only minor updates to support some recent technologies: Wi-Fi, BT, etc. (except the fact the core OS went from WinCE 3.0 to CE 4.x, mostly because MS core OS developers didn't want to go back to older code since they kept advancing versions).

Of course given the fact MS reportedly makes only a few bucks on each PPC licence for: a core OS, the overlay UI and more than a dozen apps, that's quite understandable.

I believe they're still committed to PPC until OQO and others will gain enough market share.

Beyond that we'll just see nothing more than cheap, limited, plastic $99 Palms and $9.99 electronic thingies.

Also remember the recent rumors about Toshiba possibly leaving the PPC market soon.

Or even Dell possibly aquiring Palm.

Now with Sony out of the PDA market, I believe more strongly than ever that the days of PDAs as we know them now are counted and few.

.

Mark Johnson

06-03-2004, 12:21 AM

The OQO is quite less expensive than the Sony U70, by half!! It's quite smaller, smaller than the Toshiba e805 and yet has a 5" screen.

It's very pocketable as it's about the size of my Dell Axim X5 with 20 times the features and capabilities.

The instant the OQO is available and I can afford one I'll get one 8)

The OQO got me excited a year and a half ago... Now I'm starting to think the closest I'll ever get to it is the 8-seconds of screentime I saw it on Fox's 24 series. Aside from that, I think you're right about it's form-factor being exceedingly cool. If they'd ever actually ship the thing I'd sit up and take notice.

The only other issue is that OQO has inexplicably used USB 1.1 and included a (to me utterly worthless) firewire port. I've got USB 2.0 peripherals TODAY that I'd want to use, so their 1.1 choice is just a sad.

ruarch5

06-03-2004, 12:44 AM

when talking about product introductions and failures...there seems a be a surprising corralation between the simple equasion of cost and mainstream adoption. As it is that's probably the reason for the failure of memory sticks rather than any serious problem with the actual product. Why would anyone choose to buy a Stick for 30% more than any other format...they don't.

So applying this logic to things such as the OQO and Sony's new "handheld" Vaio, what your asking the market to do is choose small uderpowered "PDA" for twice the price of a fully featured laptop...it won't. The really intelligent observation belongs to the person who wrote about the price distortions caused by Telco subsidies regarding smartphones...A P900 is more expensive than my Toshiba e800...which blows it away for everything...especially when I fully own my PDA and dont have a 24 month $100 contract to worry about...the question there is "but it can't make calls"...Who doesnt already have a mobile phone?

There have been quite a few people mensioning the lack of advancement in the PPC area. Look up a Carbonado data sheet from Intrinsyc. Thats the evolution of the PPC. And of course u'd have to chech out SE...

It's really just a matter of observation. It's like the articles "stating" that the demand for Ipods is the reason Hitachi is doubling production. Yeah right and the Muvo is selling cos it's the best MP3 player out there...

ruarch5

06-03-2004, 01:18 AM

A quick search found this...

"According to Creative President Craig McHugh, current sales growth of 26 percent was driven by a sharp increase in demand for its Nomad family of digital audio players, including its hard-drive and flash-based players. "Revenues for the category increased 151 percent year-over-year."

"He added that the company "sold out all of our MuVo2 units in the U.S., Europe and Japan, as demand for our player far exceeded our drive vendor's capacity to supply us with enough one-inch drives."

It looks as if this guy doesnt even know why his players are selling so well...and he's a company rep!!

If Someone at Sony were to investigate a little and find out what was actually happening to these Muvo2 players, they might have a new product roadmap and a new product on the way in six months or so...

zipmail

06-03-2004, 03:05 AM

Two years ago when the first OQO prototype was presented at WinHEC 2002 I predicted, or rather suggested, that it (and other competing products) would kill PDAs as we know them now.
.

Conversely, the PDA can grow up and become a mini-PC instead of shrinking the PC to be come a mini-PC. The arc of growth from the PDA end is meeting the shrinking of the PC. The question is who is going to reach the zenith first.

To me, the "instant-on" of the PDA sure beats the WinXP Standby mode anytime. And the cost of 2 copies of the same software does not work for me. Mini-PCs are still not pocketable enough.

I really don't see something like the OQO replacing my desktop. Not on Transmeta chips anyway. The mini-PC still have a long way to get to what it claims to do. The PDA have gone through that and is at the cusp of delivering what it claimed to do.

Fuster

06-03-2004, 10:54 AM

Where do you guys figure the Sharp Zaurus in all this? I have played with desktop Linux and found it to be usable (if not as idiot proof as Windows). Hard to know whether to believe the hype that it's on the verge of breaking through but it seems that in many sectors (particularly corporate?) this may be the case. If the PPC market is largely corporate users, this may have interesting consequences. It also strikes me that the Zaurus has something to bring to the fight against Palm devices in terms of reliability and cost (especially earlier models, which are admittedly less powerful but are less likely to go out of date because they remain supported by the Linux community). Both are areas where I feel the PPC falls short.

I recently bought a refurb Toshiba PPC but toyed at the time with the idea of a Zaurus. It was unfamiliarity with Linux that stopped me. If the next few years do see growing adoption of Linux in the workplace, one thing we may see is a greater willingness to consider Linux-based PDAs. I read above comments about MS's poor commitment to application development on the PDA platform. This is simply not the case with a Zaurus (a quick Google should change your mind on this if you are unconvinced). It seems to me that with the right hardware to run it on and users who have been familiarised with the OS/applications by a switch to it on the office desktop, Linux may be poised in the wings to take a chunk out of the PDA market.

What do you guys think? Is it fair to say that the limited capabilities of a PPC are more vulnerable to being overtaken by a Linux solution than the more sophisticated subnotebook/tablet big brother? Any of you ever used a Zaurus? Is it one to watch or likely to get squeezed along with the rest of them?

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Link to a review of the latest Zaurus offering (added later for your reference): http://www.bargainpda.com/reviews/sharp_zaurus_sl_6000_1.html

Steve Jordan

06-05-2004, 12:48 PM

Sony is following the natural evolution of the PDA: to a fully functional, portable personal computer (maybe we'll call it the FFPPC). (Well, probably not.) The VAIO U70 and OQO are only the first examples of the computer becoming a device you carry with you at all times, like a wallet, interfacing with desktop stations, other devices and peripherals (probably) wirelessly as desired. Being able to carry all your data, apps, everything, with you at all times will really simplify mobile computer/multiple computer use.

The PDA market is practically saturated, and with smartphones coming out, there is less of a reason to have a separate PDA. In fact, if a smartphone could wirelessly communicate addresses with a FFPPC in your pocket, who'd need a PDA? Or, for that matter, all the other things being crammed into a smartphone? Let the phone be a phone, and the computer in your pocket can do the rest.

I'm looking forward to the next step in computer evolution. Heck, I'd buy one today if the price point was below $500, and ditch my laptop. And if anyone can figure out how to bring the price of such a device down to $500, it's Sony.

06-05-2004, 02:18 PM

Where do you guys figure the Sharp Zaurus in all this? I have played with desktop Linux and found it to be usable (if not as idiot proof as Windows). Hard to know whether to believe the hype that it's on the verge of breaking through but it seems that in many sectors (particularly corporate?) this may be the case. If the PPC market is largely corporate users, this may have interesting consequences. It also strikes me that the Zaurus has something to bring to the fight against Palm devices in terms of reliability and cost (especially earlier models, which are admittedly less powerful but are less likely to go out of date because they remain supported by the Linux community). Both are areas where I feel the PPC falls short.

Well, I'm rather biased I must admit. I have the clamshell C860 Zaurus and for me it comes very close to being a mini laptop.

Unlike the new WinXP type devices, the Zaurus doesn't run full desktop programs - still has a 400MHz processor and limited memory. Having said that, many programs have been compiled and do run very well.

One of the great things with the Linux based OS is the freedom to change things and to use different distributions. Mine uses Trolltech's Qtopia GUI and for me it works really well. There are other versions that also appeal more to hard core Linux guys.

Unless Sharp change their marketing approach, the Zaurus will never become a mainstream device. They seem to go out of their way to prevent people buying their product which is rather a novel idea.

This is a shame because I believe their designers have made the best compromise between features and portibility of all the small computers. All that's missing is built in wireless, which should arrive in the next generation. It's already in the 6000 series you refered to.