Kerry takes NH! Your prediction for the rest of the race?

[famousdavis]

Well, it looks like John Kerry has won New Hampshire. In 10 days, 7 more state contests will winnow the Democratic playing field.

Who do you think will win the nomination? NOT who do you <u>WANT</u> to win, but who do you think WILL WIN?

[PetiteFlower]

Too soon to tell, I don't think any of them are a sure thing. Liberman was never a real contender of course and Dean's chances are dropping daily, but the other 3 all have a fighting chance, and even better I think all 3 of them have a fighting chance at beating Bush. Which, as a democrat, is my main hope for the election.

[bdegroodt]

Sadly, Kerry clearly has the media's love now. That's enough to win the nomination. Of course, if Bush is able to raise his claimed $200M in reelection funds then we may as well just save the money and skip the election. That's a lot of money for an incumbent and would be very hard to beat.

[Jon Westfall]

Well, since Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton weren't on the list, I chose Dean. (Kucinich is, unfortunatly, my congressional representative. I've met the guy once, and trust me - we don't want him as president... thankfully the nation figured this out).

Anyway, I'm a republican, so this whole democratic primary season is one long interesting ride for me. Seriously, I think Kerry is a blip that will die away. It sounds to me like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet, which will more than likely be exposed in the coming months. (such as the Puff the Magic Dragon video has). Kerry also has a mean streak in him that might turn off voters more than Dean's perceived arrogance. Dean, on the other hand, has a lot of stamina, a great yell (that's my ringtone on my I-Mate...), and seems to believe in some things. His only worry is that midwesterners will see him as an arrogant new englander who thinks his **** smells sweeter than the rest. Perhaps this is what happened in Iowa, and NH can be written off as Kerry coasting through. We'll have to wait until next Wednesday to know more - with 7 more states voting, it should give a broader picture of the electorate.

In the end, I really have no idea how this election will turn out. The young traditionally vote democrat, but being in a college atmosphere as we speak, I can tell you - the young care less about voting than they do about "so-and-so dictator in godknowswhereistan". Simply put - kids don't vote.

One thing I really, really, really wish would stop is the negative campaigning. I'm so sick of "My opponent is a piece of crap" ads that tell you nothing about what the other candidate HAS done. Oh, and the one they have running now where the impersonate bush's voice and put a nice disclaimer at the bottom in only slightly-larger-than-fine-print that says "President Bush's voice impersonated" is real cute. The elderly, blind, and those not looking at the set are really going to wonder why their president would say "My tax plan's goal is to bankrupt the country and I also want to destroy medicare"...

In the end, lets just hope that:
a) those who cast their votes based on what others TELL them to do vs. casting a vote on what THE VOTER BELIEVES simply stay home and watch TRL or something.
b) The democratic candidate announces they won't run negative ads against bush (not likely to happen).
c) Bush announces he won't run negative ads against the democratic candidate (also not likely to happen).
d) we avoid another Florida incident where we have to sit around for a month while people debate "Is it hanging or dimpled or impregnated or on fire or dented" and use the word chad.

My 2 cents.

[Jon Westfall]

After reading through my reply and such, I just wanted to thank everyone in this community for staying civil and not degrading down to flaming each other for our political beliefs. Lets hope we don't ever get that low... or else we'll start looking like a Palm-user community ;)

[famousdavis]

d) we avoid another Florida incident where we have to sit around for a month while people debate "Is it hanging or dimpled or impregnated or on fire or dented" and use the word chad.


No hanging chads in OUR state anymore! Gov. Jeb Bush gave us electronic voting booths! :D

Of course, there's the matter of electronic tampering, voter tampering, election rules violations, electronic mafunctions, mis-programmed ballots and the like -- but what are the chances of THAT happening?!? 8O

[PetiteFlower]

I don't think this election will be close like 2000. I think most of the Dems who voted 3rd party last time around learned their lesson and are now focused on defeating Bush as their primary objective. Polls are saying even though Bush has a 60% approval rating, a majority of americans still think a democrat--any democrat--would do a better job in office.

Of course I heard this on the radio and have no source for this poll, it was on the dedicated news station at least.

I'm still not sure where my vote is going, I like Kerry on the issues, but he does have skeletons(literally, he was a member of a secret society called Skull & Bones at Yale, and Bush is also a member....makes an uncomfortable connection between them for many liberals). I like Edward almost as much though. Personally though I am just so jazzed that we have more then 2 choices and none of the top contenders in the primary scare me :) Well, Dean does, but the thing that scares me the most about Dean is that I don't think he can beat Bush.....too many people think he's off his rocker now. He also seems to have no consistent position on the issues....on some he's very left and others he's very right. Makes me think first of all that he would govern by opinion poll and can't be trusted to maintain his stance on any issue after the election; second of all it makes him too left for the moderate repubs and too right for the hard-core liberals.....and in order to beat Bush, the candidate is going to HAVE to get that moderate non-bush-supporting republican vote--those are the people who don't really like Bush, but will vote for him unless the Dems can present a candidate they can feel confident with.

I've also heard some people pushing for Edwards because he's from a southern state and no northern democrat has ever been president.....

[Fishie]

d) we avoid another Florida incident where we have to sit around for a month while people debate "Is it hanging or dimpled or impregnated or on fire or dented" and use the word chad.


No hanging chads in OUR state anymore! Gov. Jeb Bush gave us electronic voting booths! :D

Of course, there's the matter of electronic tampering, voter tampering, election rules violations, electronic mafunctions, mis-programmed ballots and the like -- but what are the chances of THAT happening?!? 8O

These wouldnt be the controversial DIEBOLD machines now would they?
From the company who´s president contributed 800k to Georg Bush his campaign and told him he will help deliver his reelection.

Sorry if this is flamebait but all im doing is informing, do a search online.
Despite legal threats Wired has a lot of articles still up about the Diebold system and how easy it is to break into it and change things.

[Palmguy]

I'm pulling for Dean simply because I believe that ensures the easiest win for my boy Bush, but it seems as though Kerry will pull it out.

I have absolutely zero respect for Wesley Clark. As I wear a uniform myself, I feel that he is a complete disgrace to the armed services, the uniform, and the United States of America.

It's really meaningless as far as my vote is concerned though, as it will go to the incumbent :)

[famousdavis]

I don't think this election will be close like 2000. I think most of the Dems who voted 3rd party last time around learned their lesson and are now focused on defeating Bush as their primary objective. Polls are saying even though Bush has a 60% approval rating, a majority of americans still think a democrat--any democrat--would do a better job in office.

You may be on to something, as this poll (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040124/pl_afp/us_vote_poll_040124215425) shows. However, polls are really meaningless as this juncture, and as Dean followers -- and Kerry followers -- have recently found out.

[dh]

Thank goodness we've had Bush rather than Gore these last few years.

[Kati Compton]

Let's please not discuss political preferences - it usually goes downhill pretty quick.

[Jon Westfall]

Let's please not discuss political preferences - it usually goes downhill pretty quick.

So which moderator do you guys like better? Kati or Steven?

Ha, just kidding, althought that could start a pretty heated flamewar.

[Palmguy]

Let's please not discuss political preferences - it usually goes downhill pretty quick.

I am rather impressed with the civility in this thread compared to other BBs I have seen...and this is the OT forum :wink:

[Steven Cedrone]

Just keep it civil. Since this is the "Off-Topic" forum, you can continue (and that's why this wasn't locked immidiately). But the minute any real arguements erupt, it's done.

We have never had a political discussion go for very long without the thread being locked. Try to make this one the exception.

O.K.?

Steve

[Janak Parekh]

So which moderator do you guys like better? Kati or Steven?
If you really want to discuss that, start a separate thread with a poll. As long as it's in good taste, I'm sure both of them will keep it open. ;)

--janak

[famousdavis]

Just keep it civil. Since this is the "Off-Topic" forum, you can continue (and that's why this wasn't locked immidiately). But the minute any real arguements erupt, it's done.

We have never had a political discussion go for very long without the thread being locked. Try to make this one the exception.

O.K.?

Steve

One of the reasons I enjoy this website and these forums so much is that the level of discussion is, well, educated and elevated. At times tempers flare a bit, but I've not run across a flaming thread before (I'm sure they're there -- and no one needs to point them out). But I've enjoyed the discussion thusfar in this thread, sparse as it has been (where are all those Dems?).

I'm a Republican, but I enjoyed PetiteFlower's post (who's clearly a Dem or left-leaning Independent), and when I went to disprove her that most Americans prefer Kerry over Bush, I was quite surprised to find a poll that bolstered exactly what she said!

If you go into these discussions with an open mind, you may be able to persuade someone to think differently about something or someone...or someone might be able to make YOU think differently, too, if you have an open mind and a civil demeanor...things that appear to be characteristic of PPCT members. :D

[PetiteFlower]

Well, you can find a poll that will back almost anything these days :)

My dad is convinced that the election in November will be a landslide for Bush; I think it's because he only listens to conservative media and isn't in touch with what the rest of America thinks. Bush has alienated a lot of his own party with his decisions. It COULD end up as a Bush victory, but I really think that is entirely dependant on who the Dems put up. If it's Dean, forget it, but you know it seems like the Dems who've voted so far realize that.

I predicted the defeat of the last Bush at age 12, against my dad's opinion. My reasoning? "Well, he got us into a war, and war is bad, americans don't like war." Now my reasoning may have been wrong but I think the war had something to do with his defeat; along with Clinton's extreme likeability and the recession. But the point was that I was able to judge the mentality of the country even at the tender age of 12 :) I knew Gore wouldn't be able to pull it off either. And right now my gut is telling me that Bush2 doesn't have the confidence of the nation.

And yes I am a Dem, I vary between pretty far left left and moderate depending on the issues...I'm a big fan of compromise and balance and I rarely see issues as black and white. The main reason I vote Dem will probably get me flamed if I say it so I won't, PM me if you wish to discuss :)