How long before PDAs (PocketPCs/Palms, etc.) become extinct?

[jlp]

With smartphones becoming more and more powerful including agenda, adresses and email, and with workstations shrinkind down from the 60s-70s mainframe to the 80s desktop to the 90s laptop and now to PDA size (OQO, Tiqit, Antelope Tech, Intel, etc.), how long do you think before PDAs as we now know them (Palm/PocketPCs) will become instinct??

Introducing the new OQO:

"The OQO is a design for a handheld computer - Win XP, 1GHz Crusoe Processor, 256mb of RAM, an 800x480 5" display in a PDA form factor." (http://www.stevebarr.com/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/barrst/goto.pl?oqo)

and OQO (http://www.oqo.com)

http://www.stevebarr.com/graphics/newoqo.jpg

I've been drooling over this device for over a year and a half now.

The design is much more enhanced now and include as you can see a sliding screen (mounted on racks and pinions!!) that reveal a thumbboard with a numeric keypad and a pointing stick.

We still have a few more months to go (S2, 2004) but if you've seen the older design introduced at WinHEC 2002 and the newest one they are now showing at CES you'll see they've been very busy working on lots of major enhancements!!

[musawi]

PPC's are improving every year, and so are palm. Palm can actually now multi task now.

[qmrq]

So ... it's actually going to be released. Woo. I remember first reading about this device... two or three years ago.

If it's possible to install a real OS on it I might have to buy one. :p

[jlp]

Think of this as a all-in one device: with an OQO type device (Toshiba, Fujitsu and Sony are reported to work on such devices too) you don't need to have a desktop, a laptop and a PDA, no more synchronizing nightmare. You save by getting just one device to use in all situations; the base unit include accessories (cables and desktop tray) to make it a desktop unit just connect to a USB or Bluetooth keyboard and other desktop peripherals. use a laptop shell to have a good sized screen and keyboard plus an extra HDD. Or use it stand alone as the most powerful PDA ever, the only one capable of running desktop apps.

No Palm or PPCs will come close to this type of devices any time soon; even later since they run different OSes.

Just like Microsoft abandonned the Win9x OS, they will abandon PPC OS in a few years when OQO type devices will drop in price to replace PDAs and smartphone will go up in features.

Antelope Tech already plans to introduce consumer level devices of their MCC line in late 2004.

I believe Windows Mobile for Smartphones will be the only version of WinCE remaining in 3-4 years, i.e. 2007-2008.

[jlp]

So ... it's actually going to be released. Woo. I remember first reading about this device... two or three years ago.

As I said in my first post it was introduced 1.5 years ago at WinHEC 2002.

[Air]

By the time this OQO stuff quit being a vaporware, PPC would have been that much more powerfull. 3D accelerator is going to be added this year, same gigabytes storage.

The rest is just a question of softwares.

[Thinkingmandavid]

That is interesting looking, I am not sure how much it weighs and I did not see it at the website. I cannot say I like the design either, but I do like the specs so far. Something small enough at 1 gig and starting at that ram is sweet.
I have always wanted a ppc with that much screen space, since I feel the current ones do not have enough.

qmrq wrote
If it's possible to install a real OS on it I might have to buy one.

what OS are you wanting? I like using windows so that is cool with me. mmm, actually I have always favored the Symbian OS :D

[Kati Compton]

Until it's instant-on, I don't see it fully replacing PDAs. Plus, *size* is an important consideration for MANY people.

This will more fit the niche of people that want to go PDA-only, but find they can't yet give up their laptop.

I mean, the Sony U101 is pretty darn small and cute, and that's already out. Well, not in North America except dynamism... But you get the idea.

[Dave Beauvais]

Agreed, Kati. Even if someone could create a true Windows XP box that can fit in a pocket, if I have to wait even ten or fifteen seconds for it to boot, I would hate it. One of the great things about Pocket PCs and (ugh) Palms is that they are instantly available and you can be ready to jot down a note or record a reminder in just a couple seconds. I have seen some fast WinXP boot times, but they're still far from instant-on.

[Falstaff]

Think of this as a all-in one device: with an OQO type device (Toshiba, Fujitsu and Sony are reported to work on such devices too) you don't need to have a desktop, a laptop and a PDA, no more synchronizing nightmare. You save by getting just one device to use in all situations; the base unit include accessories (cables and desktop tray) to make it a desktop unit just connect to a USB or Bluetooth keyboard and other desktop peripherals. use a laptop shell to have a good sized screen and keyboard plus an extra HDD. Or use it stand alone as the most powerful PDA ever, the only one capable of running desktop apps.


I don't think this type of device will replace a laptop, PDA, or desktop for many people. Compared to a PDA, the faults have already been pointed out (instant-on and size). Plus, with the new technologies, such as the 2+gb SD car sized hard drives, storage space will increase, and processor speed will probably also increase soon if TI gets into the PDA processor market. This device also won't replace a laptop for most usera also. It doesn't have a full laptop sized keyboard and the screen can't compare even to a 15" laptop. There are also many expandability features lacking, CD-ROM, DVD, swappable HD, doubt if it has a built in LAN port. You can say that these can be added, but having multiple accessories plugged into your device isn't exactly what I call portable or quick to set-up. Desktop replacement for many is impossible because of so many factors. You can't upgrade it easily yourself, the compenents will always be several steps behind full sized desktop components, and the aforementioned CD, DVD issues. This is just my opinion, there will be a segment of the population that will thnk these devices are useful, but I think that will remain mostly a small niche market. These devices are too big as PDAs, too small as laptops, and too underpowered as desktops.

[Steven Cedrone]

As far as the OQO goes, all I can say is: "I'll believe it when I see it..." :roll:

Steve

[jlp]

Thank you for your various comments.

But instead of aimlessly shooting everywhere I suggest you would inform yourself by reading the OQO site to know what we're talking about.

I also suggest you read the last 2 or 3 pages of informaion on the OQOpc group at www.YahooGroups.com which report information from the CES show that takes place now in which OQO is presenting their new device.

Because you wrongfully suggest this device is not instant on, while the Crusoe CPU has this capacity; also OQO is targeting their device, amongst many others fields, at physicians and I doubt they would tolerate to have to boot up the device 100 times throughout the day while visiting patients in hospitals, etc.

Also, instant on is a Microsoft prerequisite (less than 1 second wake-up delay) for the Tablet PCs, and the OQO is a Tablet PC like device, only pocketable.

Also regarding size, it's in line with that of top of the line PPCs, while being so much more powerful and capable.

It CAN replace a laptop when connected to a laptop shell (I talked about this in my very first post). As the name pretty much explains it, a laptop shell is... a laptop without the CPU & memory, in other words a laptop body with laptop screen and keyboard, and additional battery and optional HDD.

Now if you think you can put a (quoting Falstaff) "car sized hard drive" (emphasis added) into a portable device, think twice :twisted:

As far as expandability features you wrongly understand to be missing, they are all there: with integrated Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, USB, Firewire and ultrafast serialized PCI connectivity, you can add all the CD-ROM, DVD, external HD, tape, printers, scanners, screens, etc. etc. you want to make it a full blown desktop machine.

Something no PDA can do today, especially since no other PDA can run desktop apps.

As far as being portable, I don't see many instances of needing to bring an optical player with you. Heck I even so rarely use my CD or DVD-ROM on my desktop.

And with programs like Virtual CD/DVD, no one ever needs an optical drive while en route.

[jlp]

I can tell you that when you need to have desktop power in your pocket, you could care less about a few extra millimeters and grams.

You're being much too picky.

As far as laptops are concerned, I already said it can convert into a regular laptop/notebook, so again here your point is empty.

And for desktops, not everybody needs the super duper latest 3+ GHz machine. UInless your into intense video and/or professional sound processing, a basic PIII level device is more than enough. Which is what this OQO is.

((Now for high graphics games there's still an X-box, a GC or PS2.))

[jlp]

As far as the OQO goes, all I can say is: "I'll believe it when I see it..." :roll:

Steve

You CAN see it at CES right now :)

[Mitch D]

As far as the OQO goes, all I can say is: "I'll believe it when I see it..." :roll:

Steve

You CAN see it at CES right now :)

Seeing it at CES right now is a long way from seeing it on the shelves for all of us to buy!

[Jeff Rutledge]

As far as the OQO goes, all I can say is: "I'll believe it when I see it..." :roll:

Steve

You CAN see it at CES right now :)

Seeing it at CES right now is a long way from seeing it on the shelves for all of us to buy!

Exactly! Until I see them shipping, it's vapourware.

[Mitch D]

I was just at the website and it says coming Fall 2004.... hmm I think it said something simular last time I was at the site last summer except the date was Fall 2003

[jlp]

I keep repeating myself...because you keep asking questions and making remarks I already talked about:

There are huge changes between the first prototypes shown in 2002 and now, so it's quite normal they had delays. Also the site states that the are performing extended corporate testing before the product will be available for Joe Public to get.

They better test it well because a) it's their first product and b) it's a new category of devices.

I prefer they take more time than sell a device not thoroughly tested.

And I much prefer today's device than the one from 2002.

[Steven Cedrone]

Feel free to comment on the OQO here... (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=22932&highlight=)

Steve

[jlp]

Now as far as size is concerned, it's even smaller than the ipaq 5550 which has both Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.

So i have to say that OQO did an excellent job, especially given the fact
the OQO is SO MUCH more powerful
it has so many more... everything
much bigger screen
much higher resolution
many more connectors
an integrated 20 GB HDD
a sliding keyboard
etc., etc.


Specs:
ipaq H5550:
5.43 x 3.3 x 0.63

OQO Ultra PC
4.9 x 3.4 x 0.9

So the OQO is quite shorter and a tiny bit thicker, but add a thumboard to the ipaq and it gets a lot bigger than the OQO!!!!

And add a 20 GB harddrive to the ipaq and it gets awefully large and heavy.

So all in all the OQO proves to compare VERY favorably to top of the line PDAs that still... lack in all areas; dont' forget that either...

[Steven Cedrone]

O.K. jlp, tell the truth, you work for OQO, don't you... :wink:

I can understand you getting all excited by this device, but there are very few in existance on the planet right now. I'll get excited when I can play with one at my local CompUSA or (insert your favorite local electronics superstore here)...

Steve

[Janak Parekh]

There are huge changes between the first prototypes shown in 2002 and now, so it's quite normal they had delays. Also the site states that the are performing extended corporate testing before the product will be available for Joe Public to get.
Then it would be much better for management to shut up and work quietly and give a release date when they're sure they'll hit that release date. Multiple slips of this are really hurting their credibility -- do you think that forum posters don't want to see it happen?

Anyway, I'd like to combine threads on the subject. Let's continue the discussion in this thread:

http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=22932

I'm locking this thread. Thanks.

--janak