Foo's Views For the New Year

[Brad Adrian]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pocketfactory.com/archives/000173.php' target='_blank'>http://www.pocketfactory.com/archives/000173.php</a><br /><br /></div>If you've never taken a look at Foo Fighter's PocketFactory personal technology Weblog, I'd recommend it. In it, he writes everything from new product reviews to personal rants. One article that is especially interesting is Foo's collection of technology predictions for the year 2004. Foo's got a pretty good bead on the direction that technology is moving and I agree with most of what he has to say. <br /><br />Some of the more discussion-worthy points that he makes include:<br /><br />• BlueTooth will become the standard wireless technology in low-end hardware, a sort of “poor man’s” wireless solution. WiFi will continue to exist as the preferred technology of choice for SERIOUS wireless users and business.<br /><br />• Look for a killer consumer PDA under the Zire brand name to appear in Spring that will shake up the entire market.<br /><br />• I expect [PalmSource] OS6 to really take the high end market by storm and light a fire under Microsoft’s feet. <br /><br />• By the end of 2004 Gateway will be bought out by Dell.<br /><br />What do you think? I've got some opinions about how many of the blog's predictions will come true, but I'd love to hear yours.

[SeanH]

It looks like a great site but I have to take offense to the statement that Bluetooth is some sort of poor mans wireless solution and WiFi is for the serious wireless user. WiFi targets wireless Ethernet connections and uses the same protocols to find and communicate with other wireless devices. Bluetooth is a lot like a wireless USB port. USB’s goal was to replace the serial and parallel port of a PC. You will see new standards for WiFi over time with increased bandwidth and better security for networking. You will not see GPS’s, Keyboards, Mice, Headsets, Hands Free kits that will interface with WiFi. I have never seen a keyboard I can plug in my Ethernet hub or switch that I could use with my PC. WiFi is meant for networking only, not peripherals. Bluetooth’s goal is to interface with all those types of devices. The only standard that is close to Bluetooth is Zibee and it’s targeted for more industrial applications.

Sean

[WillyG]

Link: http://www.pocketfactory.com/

[klinux]

I too think Palm is making a super-strong move into the PPC territory by quickly taking over its strengths. Give me a good GPS app and a more robust address book I am ready to switch!

[farnold]

What I always liked with Foo Fighter's predictions was the he's taking some risks in his predictions and not just says what everyone said hundreds of times before... at least most of the time :D Like the prediction he makes on hard drives in PDAs...

• BlueTooth will become the standard wireless technology in low-end hardware, a sort of “poor man’s” wireless solution. WiFi will continue to exist as the preferred technology of choice for SERIOUS wireless users and business.
That seems to be the exception to what I just said before. That is neither new nor a things of the future - that happened already...
My prediction here would be that Bluetooth will not focus on ethernet. And in a year's time devices we will see devices with WiFi, Bluetooth, GPS and mobile phone capabilities (3G).

• Look for a killer consumer PDA under the Zire brand name to appear in Spring that will shake up the entire market.
PALM and killer? Or is it just about killing PALM's business? :lol: No, they will need years and more money than they have to get back in any kind of leading role. My prediction is that PALM will continue losing groud and cannot afford the required investments to do anything about it. And since SONY is not pumping bis $ into it anymore they really struggle.
A bit later Foo Fighter writes: "Also, by the end of 2004, I expect the low-end Zire to ditch monochrome for color. After that, grayscale will live on only in our memories.". Hey, mate, greyscale is a thing of the past for a few years now :lol: or did you mean the killer device actually to have more than no color :)

• I expect [PalmSource] OS6 to really take the high end market by storm and light a fire under Microsoft’s feet.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
If PALM really is to bring such a dramatic new OS we can just expect one thing - a nightmare.

• I believe that consumers don’t really want keyboards on PDAs
I think we will see more different devices. With and without keyboards. And my pediction is to see changes for both PocketPC Phone Edition and Smartphone:
• PocketPCs with a keyboard as we know it from mobile phones and T9 input method
• PocketPCs will be supporting different screen sizes and resolution. And what I mean is not so much the 640 x 480 that many predict, but also smaller screens like in Smartphones. I expect that both PocketPC and Smartphone will be running the same OS

My last prediction is also top on my wishlist - so here might be hope speaking
• PocketPCs will no longer be tied to OS / EUUs provided by the hardware manufacturer. OS can be installed from a CD and updates can be implemented like on a PC. Hardware vendors will prodvide drivers.
(OK, that maybe more something for 2006 :))

[gonzo]

I'm sorry Farnold, I disagree with ya on your Palm O/S ponderings....

I think Palm is becoming a more viable contender than Microsoft now, Purely as Microsoft appear to be moving more onto smartphone than PPC. Palm has a LARGE group of development, and as most PPC users can agree with, their E-book reader software beats microsofts hands down.

As a user, if Palm os offers better software (good listpro type app, good contacts etc) I'd shift for small size, better screen and better battery.....

I think it's just what microsoft need....let palm grab a bit of big business, microsoft do need to up the game on software avaliable and what it does.

[TheZodiac]

OF course gateway is going to be bought... but if dell thinks they will succeed with making their outlets dellettes, they are insane. Stick to mail order. Dont be suprised if MS buys them though - they need a factory. LOL

[bdegroodt]

Good stuff Foo! Here's hoping that at least half of what you predict makes it to the market. We'll all be well off they do.

[Air]

my list:
-PPC with replaceable/disposable Hardrive will show up
-New Intel chip rules.
-Camera will be a common feature by the end of the year (combination of new intel chip, Microsoft adding camera API, and just about every phone has it)
-2004 is the year of PPC PE too, not just smartphone.
-Come on GPS, TV receiver
-hopefully 2004 will be the last year we see all silver 'it's yet another ipaq' look.
-Are we ever going to break $150 price barrier for sure?


Palm?
who cares. OS 6.0 better performs or they will die.

[joelevi]

You forgot on major one... by the end of the year, Microsoft will be split into 82 companies loosly split at the "department" level, with dozens of others discontinued entirely.

Ironically, this will come on the heals of the final FINAL final (3rd time's the charm) settlement with the government and the states, AFTER all parties have decided NOT to split goliath. Rather, Bill Gates will be killed, supposidly by a member of his staff who just can't handle proprietary software anymore. It'll be rumored that s/he's a member of the Linux Liberation Front, but they'll disavow any knowledge of him/her.

Internal bickering and "king of the hill" syndrome will prevail until each business unit manager will try to extracate him/herself from the company as a show of force. This will backfire.

The new conglomerate of allied business units will be called the Union of Gates' Last Year (U.G.L.Y.) and will be headed by Microsoft's former Bluetooth SIG leadership.

SCO will claim ownership of the acronym U.G.L.Y. but won't show any proof of prior ownership except to a judge and council and demand licencing fees from anyone who uses the new U.G.L.Y. software, or any software for which a derivitate to the current conglomeration can be found (including, but not limited to all former Microsoft products including MS-DOS and Q-BASIC).

Linus Torvalds will finally get fed up with SCO and purchase them with "some money that he fell into" but then will be detained indefinately by the Department of Homeland Security for having "a name that sounds too un-American" and "speaking with an offensive accent."

The ACLU will call all it's leaders, lawyers, members, and supporters together in a unified show of force against the Department of Homeland Security in Bethesda, MD. Acting on "substantial and credible information" regarding the whereabouts of Osma Bin Ladin, a military strike will not only wipe out the entire organization, but even DNA and dental records will be impossible to use for identifying the "remains" (if they can be called that).

On that news the American populus will call for the resignation of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals and 3 of the Supreme Court Justices. When they refuse a national shortage of pitchforks and torches will help spur the waning production sector of the American Economy. The Judges step down weeks later, never to be heard from again. (Although rumor has it they all fled to France.)

The US will ask for its removal from the United Nations, which will not allow the departure. On another tip about the whereabouts of Osama Bin Ladin, the US military will strike the UN Headquarters, destroying it and all occupants. The only remains to be identified come from Jaques Sheraks (sp) office, one is Jaques, the other is Bin Ladin. Papers are also found in a fire-proof safe which implicate the United Nations in all the terroristic activity perpetrated against the free world in the last decade.

The world, with the exception of France and Germany, offer their apologies to the United States. They, as a token of appreciation, overthrow France and Germany, and give them back to the newly reforged Russia (now based upon a constitutional republic democracy).

No longer needed, the Patriot Act and the Department of Homeland Security will sunset and freedom and peace will reign.

In November, Christ will come again, fullfilling Christian prophesy, upon seeing everything that's happened and finding no traces of Armegeddon, He'll simply state "looks like you've got things under control here, I'll be in Tahiti if anyone needs me."

Unfortunately, due to a rounding error, the "Y2K bug" will manefest itself at 11:58 GMT and the world will inexplicably cease rotation, then reverse. When the catastrophic events clear, an expidition to the center of the earth will reveal a little old man with a Commodore 64 that hadn't been patched hooked up to a large gyroscopic mechanism. His only quote: "I didn't get the memo."

Christ will return from his holiday in Tahiti to help all the people of the Earth, thus fulfilling Jewish prophecy.

Triage will last roughly 1000 years, but, oddly, no plague, pestilance, or death will be found. This, suspectedly, due to the reversed rotation of the earth. When questioned, the little old man at the center of the earth will be quoted as saying "I didn't get the memo."

Peace and plenty abound... and they all lived happily ever after...

Until one remaining ACLU laywer was found alive, having suffered from amnesia. Once the cloud of forgetfulness is lifted from his/her mind, s/he goes straight to work trying to destroy the new found peace.

[Orange]

why would dell spend money on a company that is going out of business like gateway? there's nothing good about the company and moreover, the gateway country stores are a huge financial burden to shoulder. dell will just compete in the consumer electronics space and push gateway out of the scene completely.

[yslee]

It's strange that I still read articles whereby Bluetooth and WiFi are seemingly placed on similar footing; they are not similar at all beyond being wireless technologies! As an earlier poster has said it, WiFi is meant as a replacement for wired Ethernet, and Bluetooth is a wireless USB connection. Different specifications, different uses, different segments!

[SeanH]

It's strange that I still read articles whereby Bluetooth and WiFi are seemingly placed on similar footing; they are not similar at all beyond being wireless technologies! As an earlier poster has said it, WiFi is meant as a replacement for wired Ethernet, and Bluetooth is a wireless USB connection. Different specifications, different uses, different segments!
Very well put.
Sean

[jlp]

2004 also seems to be the year of the new OQO.

As it's an all-in-1 device (desktop, laptop (with associated shell) and super PDA), it might well eat into the regular (read old millenium) PDA market.

Many people want/need a very powerful PDA which needs neither PPCs nor Palms can satisfy.

And then instead of buying 3 devices for every purpose (and never having your data where you need them) you just get one device.

http://www.stevebarr.com/graphics/newoqo.jpg