Phones, Handhelds May Replace Laptops

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/12/08/handheld.future.reut/index.html' target='_blank'>http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/...reut/index.html</a><br /><br /></div>"Psst... How about a souped-up handheld computer cell phone combination that not only boasts a camera, surfs the Web, does e-mail, can play digital music and has a calendar, but also makes your toast in the morning? You can have all of that right now. Well, all but the toaster part. <br /><br />The point is, handheld computers and smartphones, even digital music players like the very popular Apple iPod, are getting ever more powerful, smaller, and can perform a dizzying array of functions. These powerful gizmos are even starting to raise questions among electronics makers over how much longer it will be before you can leave your laptop at home as a doorstop and hit the road with only your uber-handheld..."<br /><br />A good read, if only to show that most of the people reading this site are already living the scenario this CNN article describes. :wink:

[piperpilot]

It goes a long way to debunking the theory that handhelds are a dying breed. And if you've seen some of the new subnotebooks, they're starting to look an awful lot like large clamshell PDAs.

[David Prahl]

I read this article a few days ago and felt a little angry. If you're going to write a technology article, at least know what's out in the market. Both the XDA II and SPH-i700 have all of the capabilities (sans toaster)!

[Robb Bates]

That's what I did. I got a big tax refund last year and was trying to decide between a PocketPC and a laptop. I could have gotten either but chose the PPC.

"A laptop is good because you can take it with you, but a Pocket PC is better because you WILL take it with you."

Portability is extremely important for me. And with my h2215 and T610 phone, I can do just about everything I need to.

Robb

[SandersP]

Wait, I thought handhelds are suppose to be dead? :mrgreen:
now laptops are dead too?

okay the first person who can make a credible story how phone is going to be dead wins the prize.

I for one think the universe is going to die!

[John Cody]

I predict that the standalone Pocket PC platform (non-phone edition) will fade away :(

Very soon Smartphones will be able to do virtually everything a Pocket PC can do. So then, what would a Pocket PC have over the Smartphone? Screen size and faster UI navigation?

The same reason why most people accept the reduced functionality of a Pocket PC vs. a Notebook PC (because of the size savings), I think, will be the similair analogy of why most people will end up wanting to carry around just one device (Smartphone or PocketPC-Phone edition), instead of a cell phone and a Pocket PC (with most leaning towards a Smartphone because of it's reduced size as compared to the PocketPC-PE).

For the people who need the larger screen (viewing documents often), they will choose the Pocket PC-Phone edition, and those who don't need the screen size or faster UI, they will choose a Smartphone. When either of these two groups need to get "real" work done, then they will take along a notebook PC.

Just a thought...

[dh]

In my case, my Thinkpad has replaced my desktop so is my stationary PC. My Axim has replaced the Thinkpad as my mobile device.

I gave away my last Windows desktop a while ago because I never used it and it was just taking up space, have not missed it at all. I do still have an Imac which I never use. My daughter uses it for homework and as her internet computer.

I'm sure that the Axim and my phone will be replaced by a single device in the next few months as well.

[Fishie]

Wait, I thought handhelds are suppose to be dead? :mrgreen:
now laptops are dead too?

okay the first person who can make a credible story how phone is going to be dead wins the prize.

I for one think the universe is going to die!

Easy, vodaphone finaly rolled out 3G in select markets in Europe.
here is the kicker tough, its not for cellphones but for laptops and PDA´s.
A technology developed for cellphones wich was to boost data usage like ooh 4 years or so ago finaly being used but for computers.
If that doesnt spell death for the cellphone what does?

[jeasher]

I just upgraded my personal technology with an h4350 and SE T610 phone coupled with new T-Mobile GSM service and a Bluetooth PC card. Now I'm set.

My point is that I took a hard look at making the plunge to a smartphone and the product just isn't there yet. What choices do I have if I want a PPC OS with a keyboard? None. I've been leery of all-in-one devices anyway. They have all the characteristics of three-yeard old PPCs: too big and poor battery life (Treo 600 excluded; keyboard too small though). That's why I was against PPC back then, and that's why I'm against the phones right now. I figure I'll be ready to go to one device in a few years. Until then, gimme two gadgets!

As a side note, I have no idea if I'll bring my laptop on my trips anymore. It'll be interesting to see if my new gear replaces it. I can backup my PDA w/o it, surf the web in my hotel w/o it, and I can do my work w/o it. 2004 should be interesting for me!

[bjornkeizers]

Wait, I thought handhelds are suppose to be dead? :mrgreen:
now laptops are dead too?

okay the first person who can make a credible story how phone is going to be dead wins the prize.

I for one think the universe is going to die!

If this mass electronic necrophilia is wrong, I don't want to be right! :D

[corphack]

I keep hearing this (as others have noted) "the PDA is dead"; "the cellphone is dead", etc., yet I've been using PDAs and cellphones of one sort or another for 10 - 15 years now (anybody remember Hitachi's first foray into the cellular market?), and I've yet to have a websurfing experience on any of the devices which would make me give up my laptop entirely. Even using WiFi to broadband to the 'net, websurfing with the PDA (or smartphone, or Symbian 60) is so slow and so frustrating, compared to the performance of my laptop (everything else being equal) that I would not ever consider the torture of having to rely solely on the current state-of-the-art handhelds. Many elements of the currently available technologies would have to change drastically first. eg. PDA RAM, PDA WiFi caching & bandwith, GPRS, to name a few.

[Ken Mattern]

I predict that the standalone Pocket PC platform (non-phone edition) will fade away :(

Very soon Smartphones will be able to do virtually everything a Pocket PC can do.

I hope that is not true. In my job there are places that I must go to that prohibit cell phones of all kinds but I can take a Pocket PC into those same places and do so. Because I am a Pocket PC developer I need to have that flexibility.

I need a Pocket PC for work, not a Smartphone. My customer does not want a Smartphone either. In fact depending on the purpose of the software I write anything that gives off RF is not permitted due to the fear of detonating ordinance.

[corphack]

In my job there are places that I must go to that prohibit cell phones of all kinds but I can take a Pocket PC into

You're right; I hadn't thought of that: in the wake of the recent stock market scandals, many of the investment houses on Wall Street are prohibiting any uncontrolled (ie. un-auditable) communication devices on the trading floors. Cell phones were the first to go; Blackberry and wifi devices are probably next.

If the standalone Pocket PC platform fades, the entire investing community will be "forced" to Palm...

[piperpilot]

In my job there are places that I must go to that prohibit cell phones of all kinds but I can take a Pocket PC into

You're right; I hadn't thought of that: in the wake of the recent stock market scandals, many of the investment houses on Wall Street are prohibiting any uncontrolled (ie. un-auditable) communication devices on the trading floors. Cell phones were the first to go; Blackberry and wifi devices are probably next.

If the standalone Pocket PC platform fades, the entire investing community will be "forced" to Palm...

The same is true here in DC where Dept. of Defense employees cannot bring any type of connected device (phone or PDA) into secure facilities. In some facilities, you can't even listen to a radio.

[fasheezy]

i'm surprised that all the previous posts haven't touched on some key issues between a laptop and PDA, such as text entry, multimedia, and screen size.

i think the biggest reason why a PDA will never replace a laptop any time soon is the speed at which text is entered into a laptop. granted there are keyboards for the PDA, but i don't think the MAJORITY of people want to carry around a keyboard that's separate from their PDA. i know there are hardcore PDA users out there with keyboards, but i don't think the general public wants something like that now. until they can seemlessly integrate a keyboard into a PDA i don't think we'll be seeing a PDA takeover any time soon.

also, the only people that really carry their laptop around are people that need to write papers or do intensive text entry. even if i had a PDA w/keyboard, i don't think i could bear to look at a screen that's only 3.5" large for more than 30 min..

and i can't believe nobody mentioned the multimedia capabilities of laptops as a reason to have 2 separate devices. i've found that my laptop is now a staple on the road for watching DVD's. i know i cannot watch a DVD for more than 30 min. on a PDA. you need a LARGE screen that has GREAT resolution to watch DVD's.

one last thing, i think you guys are mislead in thinking that a PDA is the best device above all else. the device that has the most promise of taking over laptops while having the size advantages of a PDA are TABLET PC's. what they need to do is make a TABLET PC that has the instant ON/OFF capabilities of a PDA while keeping the same power of a laptop. TABLET PC's aren't quite at the size that most people would like yet, but i think ultimately it will be the TABLET PC that ends up the victor.

as for smartphones, i only see a market for those kind of convergence devices for people who will NEVER need a laptop.

[dean_shan]

PDAs will not kill PDAs. There are just times that you need a full computer to run full programs on a large screen.

[Wiggin]

I just upgraded my personal technology with an h4350 and SE T610 phone coupled with new T-Mobile GSM service and a Bluetooth PC card. Now I'm set.

Echo this (except I picked the 4150... never liked thumb typing much :) ). I did not go the smartphone route for two simple reasons, and I will never let go of a laptop-sized device for the same two reasons ... device size and screen size. As processing capability continues to increase, small devices (phones, pdas, handhelds, etc.) will continue to chase laptop devices, just like laptops will continue to chase desktop devices. It kind of reminds me of that classic fish analogy of a small fish about to be eaten by a larger fish, who in turn is about to be eaten by a larger fish, etc.... EXCEPT that in this case, it would be in reverse!! :lol: But anyway, I digress....

The balance between device size and the resulting screen size is a tough one to master. It's very dependent on one's need in a wide array of situations. For work, I could never accomplish my activities on a hand-held screen. When at home, relaxing for a few minutes of surfing on the web or catching up on the news, a small screen would not suffice. When I'm out on the road, be it down the street or across the country, without the need for large amounts of data input, the PPC-size is perfect. When I really want to pack light ... a small GSM phone is all that I want.

So, even if (when) all three devices can each do the same processing and connectivity things, I will still not want just one device. The window I want to gaze through into the electronic world will never be just one size.

Now... let's think outside the box for a moment, shall we?!!
Imagine a cpu device that has a touch sensitive 2x3 inch VGA screen, using a 2+ghz chip, wifi/bt/cell phone built in, 100 GB mini disk, a few SD-like slots, USB/Firewire/equiv slots, and looks like a small GSM phone (e.g. the SE T160). Now pull out a paper thin, touch-sensitive, VGA flexible screen (say 8x10 inch) that can be rolled, folded, etc. and which connects to, and is powered by, the CPU device via bt (or the equiv), and if necessary, pull out the flexible keyboard (similar construction as the screen, but sized as a traditional keyboard... touch sensitive).
NOW, I'm ready to tackle any situation, and all I have is a few oz's of a cpu and two flexible comonents. :rainbowafro:

Ok, that's my off-the-cuff offering... how about others??
:way to go:

[bjornkeizers]

[Ok, that's my off-the-cuff offering... how about others??
:way to go:

I can't wait until we finally get those paper-thin, flexible, transparant, high resolution displays.. but let's take it a step further: get rid of the display and think more along the lines of Star Trek: a bubble projected around you through some futuristic holographic technology - true 3 dimensional displays. Couple that with something like a force field so you could create solid objects within your bubble - you could effectively take your office with you. Just sit in a comfy chair, activate this magical device, and a bubble would project around you with [if you want] a computer, or just put the data right in front of you..

The future has limitless possibilities. And for me, none of those involve devices as we know and use them today.

[dMores]

i've had access to a number of laptops. a sony vaio (desktop replacement unit), then another sony vaio (sub-notebook) and IBM thinkpads. but i just wasn't able to work with them. first of all the resolution of the screens were too crappy, and i just couldn't enter text on those keyboards.
now i have an apple 15" powerbook, and it has rendered my desktop completely obsolete (actually, i couldn't use it anyways since my girlfriend is writing her thesis on it).
i was amazed at how fast this little thing could make me turn my back on my beloved dual-cpu power-rocket i was once so proud of.

the fact that the powerbook has a relatively large keyboard shows me one thing, namely that my pda will never be able to replace it.
even on the 1200xsomething screen of the powerbook, i have some "oversight" problems. even if they up the resolution on pdas to 320x640, it'll still be just like the days i started out with computers, dos and windows 3.11 and 640x480 screens.

text input is crucial.
there are people who say that we'll be talking to our pdas in the future. i want to see those people sitting on a bus, talking to their pda. or in the library. or in a factory where you can't hear your own words.

but i also believe that smartphones will be more important in the future, that there will be many more out there than today, since people are realizing their positive aspects, and manufacturers are able to produce good, stylish and usable products.

like the p900 :)