Dell Downplays PDA Opportunities?

[Janak Parekh]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.infoworld.com/article/03/09/24/HNdellmit_1.html?source=rss&url=http://www.infoworld.com/article/03/09/24/HNdellmit_1.html' target='_blank'>http://www.infoworld.com/article/03...Ndellmit_1.html</a><br /><br /></div>This sounds contradictory, but despite Dell's announcement of upcoming handheld devices, Michael Dell is still not convinced that PDAs are a "large opportunity" short-term.<br /><br />"'The PDA market is a small in more ways than one. We entered the market just a few quarters ago and got 37 percent of it that fast,' Dell said. 'It is not a huge market and it won't have the focus for us of, say, the storage market. It has a long way to go before it is a super high volume market.'"<br /><br />He's got a point -- being able to grab 37% of any market in less than a year is illustrative of its size. On the other hand, this may be a sign that, <i>long-term</i>, PDAs may yet be a volume force. Maybe it'll take the "connected PDA/smartphone" for this to happen, but the fact that Dell has invested a fair amount of resources would seem to imply that they're in this for the long haul. What do you think?

[SandersP]

37%? US market maybe, but Dell only controls 5% of global market in last gartner quarterly report.

The problem with PDA is, well The darned thing doesn't have much use beyond simple organizer stuff and mp3.

PDA need new killer app. Killer apps that public is aware off, instead of just few geek.

Camera, GPS, Good games, ebooks that actually works and interesting to read are all still below majority of people's radar.

With X3, Microsoft better start thinking about pushing PDA as gaming, because at $150-299 it's cheap enough to compete with GBA albeit not convincingly.

[xbalance]

As a non-mobile professional (someone tied to a desk and desktop computer) I do not have much need for a PDA. It is too big to replace my small Nokia phone and it is too small to replace a notebook computer when I am forced to travel. But I have pretty much had a PDA since the first generation of Windows CE devices. I use it primarily for entertainment. I use it store pictures, play games, track my workouts. I also use the PIM functionality, but not as often.

I would expect the PDA to really take off with more affordable wireless capabilities and a emphasis on entertainment versus productivity. Entertainment to me is surfing my favorite web sites, internet radio, games, television (movies), instant messaging. Most of these things are available now, but the price, availability and the performance of wireless has to be compelling and I don't think it is yet.

Just my 2 cents.

[David Prahl]

It is my strong belief that Dell can make the industry larger if they advertise their devices.

How many "oohs" and "ahhs" do we get when we demo our PPCs to people? A lot! If Dell had an Axim TV commerical, or started retail sale, they could expand as well as control the market.

The average person still thinks "Palm Pilot." Dell is capabable of making them think "Pocket PC" or "Axim". It's true that mostly geeks own PDAs right now, but Dell can change that!

Come on, Dell! Go therefore and make geeks of all people! :mrgreen:

[whydidnt]

It is my strong belief that Dell can make the industry larger if they advertise their devices.

How many "oohs" and "ahhs" do we get when we demo our PPCs to people? A lot! If Dell had an Axim TV commerical, or started retail sale, they could expand as well as control the market.

I'd like to agree with this, but most of the poeple that give me the oohs and ahhs also say.... but it's too expensive and complicated for me to deal with. For the average person who wants to do simple PIM functions and maybe listen to a song, or play solitaire while on the go, it is very difficult to justify anything over $100 for these devices.

Until PDA's are as cheap, easy and intuitive to use as a cellphone they will not reach mass acceptance.

[jage]

Pocket PCs are way too cumbersome and difficult to use for the majority of people.

More often than once I've met people who say, yeah, it's cool, but it's all too difficult to use. It's too different from the things people know, like desktop Windows or mobile phones.

It's difficult to setup Wifi, Bluetooth, use navigation, synchronize, even to use the PIM functionality for the majority of people. Really. I've noticed it first hand when teaching my wife to use Pocket PC. She (or most other people) can't get much done without some handhelding and teaching.

Input methods are another BIG problem. Maybe the thumb keyboards resemble much enough "ordinary" computers that people could think of adopting it. Or maybe voice recognition, but maybe we need to wait some time, like 5 years, that to be reality. I know about Voice Commander, but that probably has a long way to go.

There are also a lot of technical terms that confuse people, from Compact Flash to synchronizing. Heck, most people have no idea what a PDA is!

Until Pocket PCs are more robust and simpler to use, the market will most likely remain small. Even though they'd advertise a lot. Because of PPC's difficulty of use, problems and bugs I see PPCs more like a taste of the future, a preview of things to come.

We're still more like pioneers and first adopters.

[Oyvind]

As a professional developer of business applications, including PDA apps, I believe that the greatest potential for the PDA is in applications aimed at vertical workflow integration in the corporation. The manufacturers have already seen the PDA consumer market stall. I mean, how many people actually need a $500 organizer which can also browse the web on a crappy little screen?

But the business market is just beginning to see the potential of mobile data acquisition. And the manufacturers are following suit with PDAs adapted to corporate and industrial demands, such as ruggedness, modules for automatic data acquistition etc (bar code and RFID). It was also clearly stated at a Microsoft seminar I attended earlier this year, that the focus in the coming years with respect to PDAs would be in the corporate and public sectors.

For the average consumer, their mobile phone already contains more functionality than they need or know how to use. I tend to agree with that SYmbian fella that declared the PDA dead in the consumer marketplace. In the corporate marketplace, however, the mobile phone will not replace the PDA, but they'll rather work together when needed.

[Stik]

As a professional developer of business applications, including PDA apps, I believe that the greatest potential for the PDA is in applications aimed at vertical workflow integration in the corporation.

But the business market is just beginning to see the potential of mobile data acquisition. And the manufacturers are following suit with PDAs adapted to corporate and industrial demands, such as ruggedness, modules for automatic data acquistition etc (bar code and RFID). It was also clearly stated at a Microsoft seminar I attended earlier this year, that the focus in the coming years with respect to PDAs would be in the corporate and public sectors.

After attending the Frontline Solutions Show in Chicago last week, I wholeheartedly concur with Oyvind's remarks.

What will drive PPC sales going forward will be companies using them for ' enterprise solutions.'

It's already happening. Visiting the Symbol, HHP, Intermec and Socket booths at the show ( amongst others ), it was a story often repeated.

I'll also throw Casio ( remember them? ) in the fray. They gave up on the consumer market, but are still strong in the ruggerized PPC market for company use.

I think your spot on Oyvind.

[Pocket PC Dubai]

PDA need new killer app. Killer apps that public is aware off, instead of just few geek.
You got that right, and they must be reasonably priced.

For the average person who wants to do simple PIM functions and maybe listen to a song, or play solitaire while on the go, it is very difficult to justify anything over $100 for these devices.
You will notice in which direction companies are focusing, Including Dell, you have HP and Toshiba. That’s why they introduced varieties of low-end PPCs

More often than once I've met people who say, yeah, it's cool, but it's all too difficult to use. It's too different from the things people know, like desktop Windows or mobile phones.
But I believe this will change! PPCs are evolving and they are being utilized for many different things since they are easier to carry and to hold. I don’t think you need to replace your desktop or laptop with a pocket pc, in my opinion you‘ll need them all.

[madmaxmedia]

The manufacturers have already seen the PDA consumer market stall. I mean, how many people actually need a $500 organizer which can also browse the web on a crappy little screen?

LOL, that's a great point! Not only that. but you have to pay for hotspot usage, or be tethered to your wifi access point at home. Or you have a pokey connection with your cellphone (also extra paid service).

Messaging is huge on cell phones and desktops, I think that could be a big app on handhelds. IF (big if) it was easy and brainless, with minimal connection hassles. You would get the benefits of mobility, without having to type on a numeric keybad. And you'd get a better interface with buddy lists, online notification, etc.

I guess the problem is connectivity. You can do it pretty well with a BT phone, but then you really could just use the phone and not shell out for the PDA.

What if you could buy a GPRS-enabled color PDA with relatively basic feature set (like Palm TE) with your cell phone plan? Would that be of any appeal as a simple and fast messaging/email device (that could also play mp3's, show photos, and do basic PIM)?

[whydidnt]

What if you could buy a GPRS-enabled color PDA with relatively basic feature set (like Palm TE) with your cell phone plan? Would that be of any appeal as a simple and fast messaging/email device (that could also play mp3's, show photos, and do basic PIM)?

It could potentially work, and it should work. However PDA Manufacturers and Mobile Phone cos. have done everything possible to kill this sort of functionality before it starts. We have seen the PALM VII, i705 and Danger Hiptop all offer some sort of this, but in EVERY case these items have been crippled upon release. The Hiptop could serve this purpose, but you can't synchronize with the desktop. The Palm devices were black and white and required you subscribe to proprietary, expensive data plans. MS Smartphones could serve this purpose, but they decided you and I wanted to tap out messages on a number pad instead of writing on the screen or a qwerty keyboard.

The killer for all of these solutions, including probably the least crippled, the Palm Tunsten W is that they are much more expensive than the phones we are talking about replacing.

Whydidnt