Gartner Releases Q2 2003 Market Share Results

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/68/32386.html">http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/68/32386.html</a><br /><br />This is similar to the IDC report <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=15920">we discussed earlier this month</a>, but Gartner has released some additional information. In device share, Palm, whoops, I mean <a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/index.php?action=expand,16747">pa1mOne</a> (makes me want to type "<a href="http://rinkworks.com/dialect/dialectp.cgi?dialect=hckr&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.palm.com%2Fus%2Fcompany%2Fpr%2FpalmOne.html">pa1mOne, w00t l33t h4x0r5</a>") is still on top, primarily because of their success with the $99 Zire. As you can see in Figure 1, devices running the Pocket PC OS now account for 35.9% of the PDA market. Note too that this is going to include almost none of the new Windows Mobile 2003 devices like the popular iPAQ 2215 and 1940 models.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030818-marketshare1.gif" /><br /><b>Figure 1:</b> Device Market Share<br /><br />Figures 2 and 3 show, however, that the Pocket PC platform accounts for 47.7% of revenue, followed by PalmOS with 41%. Finally, Figure 4 recaps the IDC report with some tweaks that show some differences in how Gartner came up with their totals.<br /><!><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030818-marketshare3.gif" /><br /><b>Figure 2:</b> PDA Sales in Dollars<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030818-marketshare2.gif" /><br /><b>Figure 3:</b> <i>Dollar</i> Market Share<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030818-marketshare4.gif" /><br /><b>Figure 4:</b> Global PDA Unit Sales

[kagayaki1]

Cool numbers. But I've got to admit, I had to run PPCThoughts through some of the digitizer links. We could be so cool, and be just like Pa1mOne (http://rinkworks.com/dialect/dialectp.cgi?dialect=hckr&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pocketpcthoughts.com)

[lurch]

Now, I'm not a business guy, so maybe someone can explain this to me, but when I see that a product (in this case, the generic Pocket PC) has a significantly lower portion of market share, and a higher portion of revenue, all that tells me is that Pocket PCs are much more expensive than their competitors... so maybe if the average prices were lower the market share would be higher? (but then revenue would be down)

Or am I not understanding something (extremely possible)
:iamwithstupid:

[PhatCohiba]

Now, I'm not a business guy, so maybe someone can explain this to me, but when I see that a product (in this case, the generic Pocket PC) has a significantly lower portion of market share, and a higher portion of revenue, all that tells me is that Pocket PCs are much more expensive than their competitors... so maybe if the average prices were lower the market share would be higher? (but then revenue would be down)

Or am I not understanding something (extremely possible)
:iamwithstupid:

You understand the data, but are missing the point. Palm has two types of devices, a sub-$100 dollar zire which is basically the old stripped palm 3 type device and high-end pocket pc like devices.

the implied analysis is that the majority of this volume is of the low cost variety. I'd expect that palm is losing seriously in the higher end of the pda market.

-jb

[Ed Hansberry]

Now, I'm not a business guy, so maybe someone can explain this to me, but when I see that a product (in this case, the generic Pocket PC) has a significantly lower portion of market share, and a higher portion of revenue, all that tells me is that Pocket PCs are much more expensive than their competitors... so maybe if the average prices were lower the market share would be higher? (but then revenue would be down)

Or am I not understanding something (extremely possible)
:iamwithstupid:
Or, Pocket PCs could be priced at a profitable price point and pa1mOne could be charging so little they are not making a net profit by selling those $99 zires. Cutting the Tungsten T from $499 to $299 in 6 months probably isn't helping their story either.

[GoldKey]

I really would like to see the data with the Zire's stripped out. The high end palms compare to PPC's but the Zire has no equivalent in PPC's. The Zire is more like a high end Royal-type organizer (don't get me wrong, I think the Zire is a neat little device and is probably great for a lot of people, but then paper planners are good for lots of people too)

[Ed@Brighthand]

I know who palmOne is but I've never heard of pa1mOne.

[GoldKey]

I know who palmOne is but I've never heard of pa1mOne.

See http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16747

It seems they incorporated the 1 vs the l into their new logo/name

[Ed Hansberry]

I know who palmOne is but I've never heard of pa1mOne.
Their logo. I can't make this stuff up.

http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2003/20030818-palmone.png

There are people at PIC poking fun of the l33t h4x0r word too. http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=5817

[Don Tolson]

Interesting... if you go to the Palm web site http://www.palm.com, you see the logo is quite clearly pa1mOne, but the text link shows palmOne, and the URL is www.palmone.com....

Hmmmmm seems to be a bit of confusion here :roll: :?: -- unless the 'l' in palmOne is meant to be stylized in the logo, but is still an 'l', not a '1'.

[Ed@Brighthand]

I know who palmOne is but I've never heard of pa1mOne.

See http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16747

It seems they incorporated the 1 vs the l into their new logo/name
I know that in the logo the letter L looks like a 1. But the name of the company is palmOne. It's one of the wacky things people like to do in logos, like the arrow in the FedEx logo or the chunk taken out of the O in Microsoft.

[GoldKey]

I know who palmOne is but I've never heard of pa1mOne.

See http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16747

It seems they incorporated the 1 vs the l into their new logo/name
I know that in the logo the letter L looks like a 1. But the name of the company is palmOne. It's one of the wacky things people like to do in logos, like the arrow in the FedEx logo or the chunk taken out of the O in Microsoft.

Nothing like adding confusion to a rebranding effort. I'll go with pa1mone, it is better for making fun of. :wink:

[cmorris]

How do these numbers compare with the last time the stats were compiled?

[John C]

There are people at PIC poking fun of the l33t h4x0r word too. http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=5817

Okay, I give up, what does the "l33t h4x0r" mean or refer to??

John

[Steven Cedrone]

Okay, I give up, what does the "l33t h4x0r" mean or refer to??

Elite Hacker...

Steve

[John C]

Okay, I give up, what does the "l33t h4x0r" mean or refer to??

Elite Hacker...

Steve

Thanks. I guess I can see that. Is it from a movie or something?

John

[Kati Compton]

Okay, I give up, what does the "l33t h4x0r" mean or refer to??
Elite Hacker...

Steve
Thanks. I guess I can see that. Is it from a movie or something?

You can read more about it here:

http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=139778&highlight=1337#139778

If you have more questions about l33t-speak, that would be a good thread for them.

[Radar On Paws]

I love this quote on the palmone site:

“The red/orange combination is a bold departure from the blue that Palm has used for many years and builds on our new subbrands, Energy, enthusiasm, power and innovation come across much stronger in our new combination,” said Ken Wirt, Palm Solutions senior vice president and head of sales and marketing.

Uh... the new logo looks dumb, sorry. It doesn't look powerful and innovative at all. The old blue one looked a lot nicer.

I wonder how much money they spent some design team to get hammered and cough up that design during their drunken brainstorm session?

[Foo Fighter]

I love this quote on the palmone site:

“The red/orange combination is a bold departure from the blue that Palm has used for many years and builds on our new subbrands, Energy, enthusiasm, power and innovation come across much stronger in our new combination,” said Ken Wirt, Palm Solutions senior vice president and head of sales and marketing.

Ha! You know, when I first read that quote in the press release, I thought...OH MY GOD!!! Carl Yankowski is back from the grave!!!!

Good lord, only a buzzword tossing relic leftover from the dot com era could possibly associate colors with product identity, and expect consumer to do the same. Yeah, I was downing an orange slurpy today and thought....God, this tastes like a Zire. :roll:

[Paragon]

I think these numbers look pretty good! At the end of the day we all do what we do for the money. We pay the rent with money! Not units sold! Owning market share is good but only if it translates into profits. If I had to choose which I lead market share in....units sold, or dollars sold, I would choose dollars sold, and would like to do that while selling as few units as possible.....pretty good chance that is going to translate into higher profit margins. To be totally honest anyone can lead a market with the number of units sold. Sell them cheap enough the task becomes quite easy......Go Pa1mOne! Keep selling $99.00 units and hopfully make 5 or 10 bucks on each in todays market. :)

Dave

[maximus]

Go Pa1mOne! Keep selling $99.00 units and hopfully make 5 or 10 bucks on each in todays market. :)
Dave

Well, if it goes mass market, those $5 will make you a really rich dude.

I remember a guy in my business school class, he told me how his family was considered silly when they decided to produce cheapo digital wristwatches powered by solar cell. Per-unit margin is only 400 yen (around USD 4) ... that line of product became the biggest bang in watch history, sold more than 30 million units in japan, and several hundred million units in asia .... and the name of the company is casio.

[Paragon]

Go Pa1mOne! Keep selling $99.00 units and hopfully make 5 or 10 bucks on each in todays market. :)
Dave

Well, if it goes mass market, those $5 will make you a really rich dude.

I remember a guy in my business school class, he told me how his family was considered silly when they decided to produce cheapo digital wristwatches powered by solar cell. Per-unit margin is only 400 yen (around USD 4) ... that line of product became the biggest bang in watch history, sold more than 30 million units in japan, and several hundred million units in asia .... and the name of the company is casio.

Yes.......BUT there isn't a big enough gap in these numbers to have enough of those $5.00 bill make a difference in this case. I don't think. :)

Dave

[Christian]

Go Pa1mOne! Keep selling $99.00 units and hopfully make 5 or 10 bucks on each in todays market. :)
Dave

Well, if it goes mass market, those $5 will make you a really rich dude.

I remember a guy in my business school class, he told me how his family was considered silly when they decided to produce cheapo digital wristwatches powered by solar cell. Per-unit margin is only 400 yen (around USD 4) ... that line of product became the biggest bang in watch history, sold more than 30 million units in japan, and several hundred million units in asia .... and the name of the company is casio.

I'm just trying to imagine anyone selling several hundred million PDAs :lol: But despite all of the Paonem-bashing, it's still good to have them as competition in the marketplace.

[Ed Hansberry]

Go Pa1mOne! Keep selling $99.00 units and hopfully make 5 or 10 bucks on each in todays market. :)
Dave

Well, if it goes mass market, those $5 will make you a really rich dude.That is at the gross margin level, and I doubt they are making $5 there after paying commissions, freight, a return/allowance reserve to the mass merchandisers like Target or Wal-Mart.

From that you deduct SG&A - all of the salaries and office expenses, plus whatever they paid for the new logo. :roll: Look at Palm's net income over teh past 3 years. They are not making money.

[maximus]

I'm just trying to imagine anyone selling several hundred million PDAs But despite all of the Paonem-bashing, it's still good to have them as competition in the marketplace.


Who knows one day palm will be as popular as wristwatch ?
One Big Mac combo, and a parmigiana spaghetti pronto, charge that to my account [hands over the palm to make payment].

Look at Palm's net income over teh past 3 years. They are not making money.

Palm should really learn from Bill Gates. A palm on each and every 'palm' :mrgreen:

[slajoie]

I think talking about the profits made by Palm or Pocket PC manufacturers is beside the point. The first graph is about market share in units sold (nothing to do with dollars, let alone profit) and the second is about market share in dollars (which I interpret as revenue, not profit).

Both Palm and all Pocket PC makers could be loosing tons of money, making tons of money, or anything in-between and it would still not register anywhere in those graphs.

However, the conclusion reached by some earlier posters is right: looking at both graphs you can easily tell that the average price point of a Palm unit is lower than Pocket PC units. I guess the main reason could be the cheap Zire sells a lot of units and there isn't a very cheap Pocket PC to compete with it.

This might lead to Palm gaining even more market share, though. People aren't too sure if they want these geeky little computers but some of them decide to give it a shot with the cheap Zire ("What the hell, it's only a hundred bucks"). Some of those who made the jump will hate it and never buy any palm-sized device again, and some will like it and become hooked on PalmOS (and maybe move up to more expensive devices later on). However, the Pocket PC can only attract people who are not afraid to spend twice as much money (at least) on something they are not sure they're going to like.

[Paragon]

I think talking about the profits made by Palm or Pocket PC manufacturers is beside the point. The first graph is about market share in units sold (nothing to do with dollars, let alone profit) and the second is about market share in dollars (which I interpret as revenue, not profit).

Both Palm and all Pocket PC makers could be loosing tons of money, making tons of money, or anything in-between and it would still not register anywhere in those graphs.



In enterprise when has profit ever been beside the point? :)

You are correct. There is nothing in those graghs to show what profits there are. However if you had to chose between one that sold more units, and had lower revenue, and another that sold less units and had higher revenue, I think the one that sold the least amount of units and has the higher revenue would be the likely winner......I know, I know, it's not a definite conclusion, it could be the other way around, but it is more likely. And, we do know that Palm has not been a profitable company.

Dave

[ucfgrad93]

But despite all of the Paonem-bashing, it's still good to have them as competition in the marketplace.

I agree. Having a strong Palm and PocketPC only means better products for us all.

Lets face it, without PocketPC making so much gains, Palm would still be dragging its feet about multimedia, RAM, color screens, etc.

On the other hand, without Palm, I don't think you would see any $300 PocketPCs, a slim PPC like the 19xx, or e3xx, etc.