Smart Phones On Top, Windows CE Out-ships Palm OS, Battle Ahead

[Andy Sjostrom]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.canalys.com/pr/r2003041.htm' target='_blank'>http://www.canalys.com/pr/r2003041.htm</a><br /><br /></div>The EMEA numbers are in from the research firm <a href="http://www.canalys.com">Canalys</a>, and it is both good and terrible news for the Pocket PC and Windows CE camp. I will share some thoughts related to the report, but I am already looking forward to see Ed Hansberry's comments! 8) <br /><br />The highlights include:<br />"- EMEA mobile device shipments in Q1 2003 up 125% on Q1 2002<br />- Nokia retains overall lead, but joined by smart phone vendors Sony Ericsson and Orange in top five<br />- Handheld/wireless handheld segment shows growth of 10%<br />- Palm remains the leading handheld vendor, but with shipments almost flat on one year ago"<br /><br />The 125% overall market growth is astonishing. I remember reading not too long ago that sales of mobile devices was believed to be on a long term slip. We find two contributing factors behind the growth: Symbian (+799%) and Windows CE (+62%). Symbian's (Nokia, Sony Ericsson, etc) growth is on one hand from a poor Q1 2002 but on the other hand a growth that puts them in the lead of the total market. The total market is, in number of shipments, dominated by "smart phones" and as can be seen below, Symbian is not categorized at all in the "Data-centric"-category (PDAs and hybrids).<!><br /><br />Windows CE out-ships, for the first time even in volume, Palm OS in the "Data-centric"-category as well as in the total market. Dell and ViewSonic is mentioned in the report from Canalys: "Dell was one of the new entrants in Q1, taking 2% share of the overall EMEA mobile device market with its Axim handhelds. Jones added: "For its first quarter, Dell made a good start. There was obviously some pent-up demand for a low-cost Pocket PC, but other vendors are already responding. Dell will need to broaden its product range if it wants to enjoy sustained success in this market."<br /><br />It is a clear trend that Microsoft is winning in the "Data-centric"-category and I would expect to see the same development in the rest of the world. However, it is even more clear that the real battle for volume and revenue is not taking place in the PDA grounds but in the "Voice-centric" / "smart phone"-category. It is actually a very positive surprise to see that Microsoft has 7% of this market and has sold more than 62,170 Smartphones, which I assume the number represents. But in order to deal with, even just keep up, Symbian's massive growth that is to be expected, Microsoft definately needs to shift into higher gears. Microsoft is losing in the "Voice centric" / "smart phone" market, not winning. We need to see radical things happening to turn this around.<br /><br />That said, let's celebrate the great Pocket PC numbers! It took three years and we've just begun!<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/canalys_01.JPG" />

[Ed Hansberry]

I will share some thoughts related to the report, but I am already looking forward to see Ed Hansberry's comments! 8)
Andy, Andy, Andy. :|

I need to help you with your headlines. Something like:

BOOYA!!!!! Pocket PC outsells Palm Devices in EMEA!!!

or

Pocket PC Rockets Ahead Of Palm

or

Windows CE Device Volume Crushes Palm in EMEA Data AND Voice Centric Devices

Mwahahahahahahahhahahhahahaha..... :wink: :lol:

Seriously, this is great news. :clap: Pocket PC beat Palm back in 2001 too when the iPAQ hit their full production capabilities of 100,000 units a month and Yankowski totally bungled the M500 series launch, but this is, I believe, the first time Pocket PC volume is ahead of Palm with no special things going on.

And you're right - now attention needs to turn to the smartphone market. Symbian hasn't won yet. They were just first to market. Let us see how 2003 and 2004 goes first. :)

[gmsatty]

RE: smart phone sales vis a vis pdas. Think of the ad $$ going into the smartphones, cameraphones et al. When's the last time you saw an iPaq ad on prime time. They're not trying to mass market pdas. I think they're trying to sneak them in through the back door by making them a work place appliance.
Just my .02.

[Andy Sjostrom]

RE: smart phone sales vis a vis pdas. Think of the ad $$ going into the smartphones, cameraphones et al. When's the last time you saw an iPaq ad on prime time. They're not trying to mass market pdas. I think they're trying to sneak them in through the back door by making them a work place appliance.
Just my .02.

I couldn't agree more! But look at the ad $$ spent on smart phones, camera phones etc that are non MS based vs those that are MS based. Microsoft... hello!?

[bdegroodt]

One point that I'd like to clarify and I believe I already know the answer to.

Is this data specifically units "shipped" or is it units "bought/sold?" Clearly, if it's units shipped, perception of success could be a bit skewed.

[Foo Fighter]

I want a recount. Let the Florida state canvasing board handle the process, and the we'll see who comes out ahead. Dimpled chads are acceptable. :twisted:

[Foo Fighter]

I don't want to throw a wrench in this, but Windows CE reaches well beyond Pocket PC. Are these numbers using PPC exclusively...or do they include other hardware running on CE as well?

[Ed Hansberry]

I don't want to throw a wrench in this, but Windows CE reaches well beyond Pocket PC. Are these numbers using PPC exclusively...or do they include other hardware running on CE as well?
I honestly don't know. If this were a report on Asia, there would be no doubt that there are tons of Windows CE devices the aren't Pocket PC. In Europe though, the only thing that could be watering this down are the last remnants of the HPC.

Keep in mind this is PDAs. So Windows CE based VCRs or the control systems in the BMW 7 series are not included in these numbers.

[Ben]

Those Symbian figures are pretty impressive - 900% growth!!!

Sorry that was slightly off-topic :oops:

[Jason Dunn]

Those Symbian figures are pretty impressive - 900% growth!!!

Indeed, and it echos what Microsoft has been saying for quite some time - Palm isn't the real competition long-term - it's the Symbian camp with Nokia...that's the real 900 pound gorilla in this market.

[Foo Fighter]

I don't want to shift topics, but this is why I firmly believe MS needs to take up more responsibility in pushing and marketing Pocket PC to the masses, rather than leave advertising to OEMs. I'm also dissappointed that Redmond doesn't seem to give a damn about consumers, but instead focusses PPC at the enterprise. I'm certainly not condemning MS from going after the lucrative corporate space, but let's not ignore an equally lucrative wave of mainstream consumers which are ripe for the picking. Look at Palm's latest offering, the Zire 71. Small, sleek, built-in digital camera and under $299. Why isn't MS working with its hardware partners (or seeking new ones) that can help bring products like this to market? I'm getting really tired of staring at Pocket PC clones. :roll:

[bdegroodt]

Why isn't MS working with its hardware partners (or seeking new ones) that can help bring products like this to market? I'm getting really tired of staring at Pocket PC clones. :roll:

Good questions Foo. It just doesn't seem to be the MSFT way. I also believe that if MSFT is going to try to make a living at this, they need to get under the covers with their hardware partners and make a device that's truly next gen. It's been far too many years of clones by yet another manufacturer. It's time for something new.

I guess we'll have to wait on Apple to come and show Redmond the way to the next level...again.

[krisbrown]

Okay I can't help myself, much to Jason's annoyance no doubt, I'm gonna have to have a rant.
My Nokia7650 with it's Symbian OS is soooo much better than the MS Smartphone(SPV) that it's frekin ridiculous.
I'm not saying this from a 'I hate Microsoft' standpoint. It just simply wipes the floor with it.
I'm talking, speed and usability here.
It is infinitely more user friendly, the menus are much faster , it hasn't locked up in 2 weeks, not once, never, and has had 10 apps loaded, including a video recorder, which works faultlessly.
On the first day my SPV locked up 10-20 times, since then I have gone postal trying to get it to work, had to do a master reset 3 days ago as it wouldn't boot. Every goddam time you press a button it puts up a timer!!!!!! The SPV is more flexible, but the Smartphone OS from Microsoft is complete dross, 4 of my friends have the 7650, I showed them the SPV, after 1 night of playing around with it, the universal conclusion(it locked up 3 times) was that it was a steaming piece of doodie.
Microsoft can still pull the rabbit outta the hat by,
throwing money at it,
making a shed load of great apps which only work on their OS.
But the user experience of their mobile software is going to be very poor and this time they can't rely on there being no competition to compare with, this could burst their bubble.

[Nellwaskilled]

well why do you think Microsoft only introduce the first SPV model in far end corner of the wireless world instead of say finland, HongKong, Tokyo or maybe NY.

you guys in London are the guinea pigs for the ver. 1.0 experiment. :D

[krisbrown]

Far end of the wireless world

Please don't tell me your from the United States of no signal.

Hong Kong ,Japan!!! no chance!! it would look like a badly designed toy compared to their hardware.

(I'm guessing you are, cos all Americans think everyone in England lives in London) :D

I recieved an MMC card from a company in the States and the address read
Liverpool
England
London
UK
I'm not moaning, my geography is appalling as well.

[fishd]

well why do you think Microsoft only introduce the first SPV model in far end corner of the wireless world instead of say finland, HongKong, Tokyo or maybe NY.

you guys in London are the guinea pigs for the ver. 1.0 experiment. :D

8O

:roll: you Americans....

Did anyone mention that we are now seeing prime time adverts on UK television for 3G services like videophones? Just wondering when that'll be available in NY ?

Can you guys cross a city block now and still keep your GSM signal ? :wink:

[bdegroodt]

Can you guys cross a city block now and still keep your GSM signal ? :wink:

Yes. In fact, I honestly can't recall the last time I had a call drop on me in the NY/NJ/CT areas.

[Janak Parekh]

well why do you think Microsoft only introduce the first SPV model in far end corner of the wireless world instead of say finland, HongKong, Tokyo or maybe NY.

you guys in London are the guinea pigs for the ver. 1.0 experiment. :D
8O

:roll: you Americans....
Hey, hey, don't blame all of us for claiming London is the "far corner" of the wireless world. I don't agree either. ;)

Can you guys cross a city block now and still keep your GSM signal ? :wink:
I agree with bdegroodt -- in the 5 boroughs GSM, CDMA, and TDMA are all very strong out on the street everywhere. Buildings are a tough situation in certain cases, as NY has problems few other other cities have, and we're too conservative (or radiation-scared) to install repeaters everywhere, but that's a different problem. That said, my T-Mo phone works fine in my office building.

Okay I can't help myself, much to Jason's annoyance no doubt, I'm gonna have to have a rant.
My Nokia7650 with it's Symbian OS is soooo much better than the MS Smartphone(SPV) that it's frekin ridiculous.
I'm not saying this from a 'I hate Microsoft' standpoint. It just simply wipes the floor with it.
Give Microsoft a few more chances. It always takes them 3 tries to get things right. I'm pretty sure they're aware of their problems at this point. :)

--janak

[Nellwaskilled]

Far end of the wireless world

Please don't tell me your from the United States of no signal.

Hong Kong ,Japan!!! no chance!! it would look like a badly designed toy compared to their hardware.

(I'm guessing you are, cos all Americans think everyone in England lives in London) :D

I recieved an MMC card from a company in the States and the address read
Liverpool
England
London
UK
I'm not moaning, my geography is appalling as well.

hey, it's either you in the island or me in deep end of the backward southern town. And we have guns, bad fried chicken and a lot of angry kooks down here.

I think Microsoft made a wise choice :mrgreen: make the polite brits guinea pigs, they can't even swears straight if the gadget goes wrong

lol ....

[krisbrown]

http://www.computerweekly.com/articles/article.asp?liArticleID=121069&liFlavourID=1&sp=1