Windows CE Powered Devices to Outsell Windows Desktops? [Archive]

Ed Hansberry

04-08-2003, 02:00 PM

<a href="http://news.com.com/2110-1045-995811.html">http://news.com.com/2110-1045-995811.html</a><br /><br />"A new research report forecasts that devices using Microsoft's Windows CE operating system, a version of Windows for small electronics devices, could begin to outsell Windows PCs by the end of the decade. The report from eTForecasts of Buffalo Grove, Ill., suggests that devices running Windows CE, such as cell phones and PDAs (personal digital assistants), have the potential to outsell Windows PCs by 2010. But Windows CE will have a long way to go between now and then."<br /><br />Well, I have no doubt that smartphones and PDAs will outsell desktops by then. By then, 100% of cell phones would be what we consider a smartphone. What do you think?

Janak Parekh

04-08-2003, 02:45 PM

Hmm... looks like most people want flying cars. :lol:

--janak

JMountford

04-08-2003, 02:55 PM

I am going to say "Maybe" even though I really do not believe it will happen at all. The problem with new technology is not how useful it is but how people perceive that usefullness. Lets face it we are geeks, but we are in the minority. THe people who buy Win CE type devices are those educated on their benefits. The people who buy PC are my grandparrents and hell just about every one. When the darn CE based Devices IE PPC and Smartphones and whatever else are running in the hundreds of dollars, the average user is not going to buy them when they could buy a PC.

It is my bet that this trend will not change enough in a mere 7 years to meet your prediction.

Heck when I was a kid I used to read and study Futurists predictions of what kind of technology and medicines and dwellings and conveinences we would have by now. Ya know what, almost NONE of it has happened. As a race humans are affraid of change and just dumb in general. Humans have become complacent with their existence and that is why I think nothing will happen quickly. Nothing moves quickly any more. There was a time 40 - 60 years ago when we just started kicking ass in the technology department but that is over. America was at the forefront of inventing, but that is done. Maybe it is because we are not in competition with any country any more. I am not sure, I just know that your prediction will not come true unless CE devices change in price and ease of use considerably. And don't start flaming me for ease of use.. by this I mean for the every day idiot who does not want to learn how to use anything ease of use....

jgrnt1

04-08-2003, 03:18 PM

Assuming Moore's Law holds for these devices, by the end of the decade we'll have multi-GHz processors, a GB of RAM and many GB's of storage in PPC's and Smartphones. They could drop Win CE and put XP on the devices. Since Microsoft is into code-bloat, Win CE will probably be the size of the current XP by the end of decade, anyway.

WillyG

04-08-2003, 03:57 PM

Personally i was hoping the two would merge both software and hardwarewise before we reach that point.

My dream "PDAPC" would function much like todays PDAs when used mobile. With about the same screensize. But it would also be a full blown PC, with memory and other specs acording to Mores law (moving parts (HD) must be replaced by somthing that doesnt move-> flash memory?)

The clue: You can plug this device into a docking station (standard connectors) wich you can find on every TV, HiFi, "PC" or other suitable equipment and the device would adapt to that role.
ie:
1) Plug it into a "PC" (actually just a monitor, mouse and keyboard the "PDAPC" replaces the actual PC by providing processingpower)
That means it has to change screen resolution to ie: 1280x1240 and transfer the output to the external monitor instead of the internal.
You could use the same "(PDA)PC" both at work and at home (just take it with you when you go, just like todays PDA) Of cource this would bring some important security questions to the table, but time will solve that.

2) Plug it into your Stero and use it as a jukebox or "rip" music from either radio or CDs (or whatever there is in 2013)

3) Plug it into your TV and it will record your favorite TV-show if you cant watch it when it goes, play it back whenever you want (at your TV, home "PC" or work "PC"). You could even take it to the "video store" and charge it with a movie wich work 24/48h. from you charged it.

My dream goes on, i see a lot of uses. The center of this universe is the "PDAPC" wich you always bring with you and use as a normal PDA when you are at the go. This would sertanly bring "personal" back into PC.

Wait a minute....
Why use some kind of physical connector... by 2013 we have "WitheTooth" and UHFHIFI-WIFI.

End of rant :)

Steven Cedrone

04-08-2003, 03:59 PM

Hmm... looks like most people want flying cars. :lol:

--janak

[Tim "The Toolman"]

Arrrr, Arrrrr, Arr... Moller Skycar...

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/cedrones/moller_m400_skycar.jpg

[/Tim "The Toolman"]

Steve

Paragon

04-08-2003, 05:05 PM

I think we are all overlooking a very important fact here....Windows CE is used in many types of devices, from gas pumps to toasters. Not just Pocket Pcs and the likes. That makes for a very wide sales base.......OH yeah, Skycars as well. :)

Dave

ahmed

04-08-2003, 05:08 PM

My english is not good:oops:

Pda by year 2010 will have the power to run real-pc-os like (windows xp 2010 :D)

pda will have Foldable Display that can be small when it completely fold like 3 inch only - and when Unfolded completely it can be big like 12 inch

exmple:
2" by 3" (3.6") (400*600 pixel) (Unfolded#1)-> 4" by 3" (5") (SVGA 800*600 pixel) (Unfolded#2)-> 4" by 6" (7.2") (800*1200) (Unfolded#3)-> 8" by 6" (UXGA 1600*1200) (10") (Unfolded#4)-> 8" by 12" (14.4") (1600*2400)

http://www.ices.cmu.edu/design/Foldable.map.jpeg

Crystal Eitle

04-08-2003, 05:13 PM

I didn't know what OQO (http://www.transmeta.com/everywhere/products/ultra_personals/oqo/oqo_ultra_personal.html) was so I :google:'d it.

Is this thing for real???? :crazyeyes:

Jonathan1

04-08-2003, 05:23 PM

I want my flying car dang it! Imagine flying car NASCAR. :D

Cracknell

04-08-2003, 05:24 PM

Jonathan1

04-08-2003, 05:25 PM

I didn't know what OQO (http://www.transmeta.com/everywhere/products/ultra_personals/oqo/oqo_ultra_personal.html) was so I :google:'d it.

Is this thing for real???? :crazyeyes:

Yes and no. So far its total vaporware. But its a forgone conclusion that someone will eventually get WinXP in your pocket.

ahmed

04-08-2003, 05:32 PM

there is one like OQO (http://oqo.com)
http://oqo.com/_images/computer.jpg

Tiqit eightythree (http://tiqit.com/eightythree.html)
http://tiqit.com/images/tiqit2.jpg

snowlion

04-08-2003, 05:37 PM

i say that car will be flying before OQO does...

although that car is also a case of vaporware...it's been scheduled to "fly" for 3-4 years now...if not more. nice picture...good paint job...but that's about it.

frankly, aerodynamically it doesn't make any sense.

rlobrecht

04-08-2003, 05:49 PM

I want my flying car dang it! Imagine flying car NASCAR. :D

Oh my god. The bump and run in three dimensions.

Steven Cedrone

04-08-2003, 06:13 PM

Ken Mattern

04-08-2003, 06:33 PM

I think we are all overlooking a very important fact here....Windows CE is used in many types of devices, from gas pumps to toasters. Not just Pocket Pcs and the likes.

Right on!

When I had a tire fixed at Firestone last month I noted that all of their "terminals" were running Windows CE. When I get gas there are advertisements playing. I have been assuming that they are running windows CE as well. And how about ATMs?

revjon

04-08-2003, 06:34 PM

OQO actually has a link to an article that calles them vaporware!
http://oqo.com/articles.html

daS

04-08-2003, 07:32 PM

OQO status right now is as real as 'DOOM Forever' and 'pocket Quicken'. Bunch of pretty pictures, fancy web page, and litany of press releases.

aka, a confirmed vaporware. It has been like that since last year, and I bet it'll be going for another year.
Well Pocket Quicken for the Pocket PC should finally be real. I saw Ken Landau from Landware at the CTIA show last month and he was showing it off at the Microsoft Booth.

Having said that, I just checked the Landware web site and they don't have the Pocket PC version listed? :? So perhaps you're right and it's still vaporware! :roll: If you're interested in Pocket Quicken, you might want to contact Landware to find out the current status.

Janak Parekh

04-08-2003, 08:42 PM

jmarkevich

04-08-2003, 09:19 PM

The trend these days isn't for a PC to be a new Windows desktop. People's PCs are lasting them longer and longer. Cheap boxes are selling like crazy now because they're more likely a second computer instead of a new computer.

What the trend will probably be is either for a cheap home server or for a multimedia TV-connected PC.

Microsoft isn't pushing CE at either of these targets. XBox coulda been CE, if it was done right, and they could make a home server where 100% of the hard drive is for storage, but they're too clever for that :roll:

Come to think of it, why can't the XBox *be* that server? Why can't the "X" live up to its algebraic definition? Oh yeah, I forgot, it already is xbox-linux.sourceforge.net :D

jlp

04-08-2003, 10:42 PM

OQO status right now is as real as 'DOOM Forever'
No, no. You mean Duke Nukem Forever. Let's not forget that. :lol:

I would certainly like to see the OQO hit the market, but like I've said before, the performance metrics of XP (especially the time to suspend/resume) make it a substantially different device than a Pocket PC.

--janak

From what I understand it TabletPCs have a suspend/resume delay of less than 1 second.

I would bet that OQO will release their device as a pocketable TabletPC. In other words it would run XPPTPCE (XP Pro TabletPC Edition) and follow MS requirements thereof.

That is if/when it goes on the market... :|

Timothy Rapson

04-08-2003, 11:08 PM

7 reasons I prefer my PDA to my desktop:

1. My PDA waits for me to tell it what to do and responds immediately. My desktop makes me wait. I wait for it to display files and Web pages. I wait for it to reboot.

2. My PDA does what I expect it to do and even does some things for me that I wouldn't expect. My desktop needs babying more. It often throws a fit for no reason I can figure out.

3. I take my PDA with me everywhere. I have to go to my desktop.

4. My PDA is mine. I sometimes have to wait in line for the family desktop.

5. Virtually every piece of software for a PDA is available online with a 30 day trial so you can be sure it will do what you expect. For example, you can try any of 4 full office suites for the Palm and 4 very nice paint programs for PPC to find out exactly which one is best for you before paying for them. Desktop packages can be expensive, unreturnable shrinkwrapped ripoffs.

6. Eventually my PDA will be my telephone, wallet, TV, radio, camera and credit card replacement. My desktop was supposed to replace my home stereo and TV. Not yet, it hasn't.

7. I could recommend and even sell PDAs. I love showing off the camera, word processor, and MyBible programs. When people who know I am a longtime computer user ask me what kind of desktop computer they should get I tell them to buy a word processing printer (like a Brother) and go to the local library to surf. It is just too much of a pain and expense to get a desktop. I am on my forth one and wish I'd never started. I don't feel this way about my PDA.

jlp

04-08-2003, 11:10 PM

But forget the OQO, TiQuit, etc.

By 2010 we will all have a Toshiba DynaSheet-like PC that will replace all the other PCs:

no more desktop
no more notebooks
no more PDAs.

http://home.urbanet.ch/urba4768/div/ToshibaDynasheet(4img).jpg

Google it for more informations including Toshiba's own page on it.

They showed a prototype (or at least a mockup) of it at the 2000 edition of the CeBIT and announced it for 2005. They said that in 2000, something like 80-90% of the technology needed already existed then.

There are already advanced prototypes of color e-paper screens (paper thin rollable displays)

By 2010 we should have SD cards with around 64 to 128 GB of capacity. Probably will have a few times that capacity inside the DynaSheet-like device.

You would be able to wirelessly connect to a form of docking that would hold larger devices like DVD-RW units, terabyte sized HDDs holding potentially your whole lifelong docs (pics, home movies, letters...), etc.

You certainly will be able to control all the other devices from it: TV, X-10 controlled home, etc.

Obviously you'll enter large amount of text using wireless (BT or Wi-Fi) keyboards like those of Pocketop, Stowaway, etc.

That is unless effective voice recognition comes to the masses. 8)

Gremmie

04-08-2003, 11:43 PM

I think we are all overlooking a very important fact here....Windows CE is used in many types of devices, from gas pumps to toasters. Not just Pocket Pcs and the likes.

I agree, the Windows CE kernal is widespread, beyond the consumer level devices.

Janak Parekh

04-08-2003, 11:54 PM

From what I understand it TabletPCs have a suspend/resume delay of less than 1 second.
I've played with one, and never got even close to this -- it felt like a regular desktop. If anyone's had a super-fast resume, can they let us know which Tablet PC it was with?

thanks,

--janak

Ed Hansberry

04-09-2003, 12:03 AM

Note to self: Do not put throw-away answers in the poll that may well be more popular than the real answers.

Crystal Eitle

04-09-2003, 12:03 AM

7 reasons I prefer my PDA to my desktop:

7. I could recommend and even sell PDAs. I love showing off the camera, word processor, and MyBible programs. When people who know I am a longtime computer user ask me what kind of desktop computer they should get I tell them to buy a word processing printer (like a Brother) and go to the local library to surf. It is just too much of a pain and expense to get a desktop. I am on my forth one and wish I'd never started. I don't feel this way about my PDA.

Wow, great post!

Except for that last point. I could never give up my desktop computer - if only because, if I didn't have a desktop system, how would I get stuff onto my Pocket PC?

Someone in another thread once said that he bought his desktop computer as an accessory for his Pocket PC. That's basically the way I feel about mine.

(However, I've had my computer catastrophically crash on me three times in the past WEEK, and I've so far had almost ZERO problems with my Pocket PC [knock on wood])

felixdd

04-09-2003, 05:19 AM

Gremmie

04-09-2003, 05:33 AM

Nope. The number of PC's per house and number of PC-users will only increase as the years go by. And guess what they're all running -- Windows! Heck they come with windows! Although it's true that PPC sales will also rise, at the current ratio of desktop-to-PPC users I don't think the number of PPC users will outnumber desktop users -- in fact I think the difference is far from close even by 2010.

Pocket PC isn't the only Windows CE device. Not even considering SmartPhone OS, any embedded objet has a strong probability of running Windows CE. I don't know why you think that PC's per household will increase, there is some sort of diminishing margin to buying computers. I don't think there is much debate that embedded computer systems will be increasing (computer ran appliances, cooling systems, etc), those will likely run embedded OSes.

theone3

04-09-2003, 06:03 AM

i say that car will be flying before OQO does...
Fly?!
The OQO can FLY?
8O

bbarker

04-09-2003, 07:07 AM

OQO status right now is as real as 'DOOM Forever' and 'pocket Quicken'. Bunch of pretty pictures, fancy web page, and litany of press releases.

aka, a confirmed vaporware. It has been like that since last year, and I bet it'll be going for another year.
Well Pocket Quicken for the Pocket PC should finally be real. I saw Ken Landau from Landware at the CTIA show last month and he was showing it off at the Microsoft Booth.
Yep. It should be real. But try to buy it.

Fortunately, though, after two or more years of promises and missed deadlines, the product seems to be nearly ready. They missed last month's release date but they're promising the product RSN. Landware's Clinton provided additional information on Brighthand (http://discussion.brighthand.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=76074).

bbarker

04-09-2003, 07:16 AM

Take a look at this great flying car spoof (http://www.viewaskew.com/tv/leno/flyingcar.html) shown last year on the Jay Leno show.

Here are some other links:

How flying cars will work, from www.howstuffworks.com:
http://travel.howstuffworks.com/flying-car2.htm

ABC News piece April 4:
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/TechTV/techtv_skyscar030404.html

Videos from Moller, the manufacturer: http://www.moller.com/news/media/

krisbrown

04-09-2003, 10:35 AM

Timothy Rapson

04-09-2003, 01:12 PM

7 reasons I prefer my PDA to my desktop:

Wow, great post!

(However, I've had my computer catastrophically crash on me three times in the past WEEK, and I've so far had almost ZERO problems with my Pocket PC [knock on wood])

How kind of you.

Crystal Eitle

04-09-2003, 03:07 PM

How kind of you.

Are you being sarcastic? I can't tell. Stupid text-based communication. Anyway, I meant it. I really liked your post!

Timothy Rapson

04-10-2003, 04:39 AM

No, not being sarcastic at all.

You are right about how hard it can be to communicate through bare text on a computer screen. I often feel like just giving up on the text based communication. It has been this way for the whole 20 years I have been at it. I started on discussion BBS's way back when. The lack of tone of voice and visual cues make it very easy to be missunderstood. I am not the best at expressing myself, especially when I post too quickly when home for my 30 minute lunch. I go back and read what I've posted and wonder why I said something so poorly.

So, I get dumped on every so often. So, it is nice when someone appreciates what I post.

Jason Dunn

04-10-2003, 01:33 PM

I didn't know what OQO (http://www.transmeta.com/everywhere/products/ultra_personals/oqo/oqo_ultra_personal.html) was so I :google:'d it.

Is this thing for real???? :crazyeyes:

Technically, no - they keep bumping back the release date. :lol: I think it will come out eventually, but they've been hyping it for way too long now...

Jason Dunn

04-10-2003, 01:40 PM

One thing you can be sure of, no matter how fast processors get or built in ram increases, Microsoft will have an OS running on the device that slows it to a crawl and requires you to upgrade again next year. Has no one else noticed this cosy setup between hardware/software companies.

Pure and complete FUD - I installed Windows XP on an old 500 Mhz machine and was surprised at how responsive it was. XP performs better than 2000 in most ways, and as long as you have sufficient RAM (256 MB is good, 512 MB is better), almost any PC from the past three years can run XP nicely.

Janak Parekh

04-10-2003, 01:56 PM

Pure and complete FUD - I installed Windows XP on an old 500 Mhz machine and was surprised at how responsive it was. XP performs better than 2000 in most ways, and as long as you have sufficient RAM (256 MB is good, 512 MB is better), almost any PC from the past three years can run XP nicely.
Let me also add that this is true for nearly every new OS -- they all need more RAM. If you don't believe me, try running RedHat 8.0, KDE, and OpenOffice on a 64MB machine. It works, but it's not that fast -- you have swap city. Linux still has a slightly smaller footprint, but it's not really that different.

The one thing that irks me is a lot of software on XP, or XP itself, leaks too much memory. All OSes do over time, but 9x/2k/XP still leak a little faster than I'd like-- maybe it's because I use them more heavily. Having said that, we have a Windows Server 2003 beta box here that stayed up for months without any problems. :)

--janak