Handhelds Thing of the Past

[Weyoun6]

There will always be a situation where a cell phone is too small, but a laptop is too big. Handhelds are the perfect middle, everyday, 24/7, computing device.

[Don Sorcinelli]

You state great counterpoints to this article, Andy!

I think that the author has (like so many others) used a line of logic best suited to their need (or preference). When we are comparing devices in the notebook and PDA categories, we are talking about two distinct segments. Each has benefits and drawbacks. For every "minus" argument, there is also a "plus". Comparisons (and statements) like those made in the article only confuse those who are uneducated regarding the differences. It usually falls upon people like ourselves (speaking as the Pocket PC community) who have to undo all of the misconceptions.

Of course, straightening this all out for the non-PDA world does give us something to keep us out of trouble... :D

[Andy Sjostrom]

<a href="http://www.wirelessnewsfactor.com/perl/story/20938.html">http://www.wirelessnewsfactor.com/perl/story/20938.html</a><br /><br />"My grandchildren will probably look at handhelds sitting behind a display case in a museum dedicated to early electronic gadgets.", says Ephraim Schwartz in this article. Ephraim argues that PDA sales will drop and provides four reasons:<br /><br />Reason 1. "Enterprise-level companies that buy units in the thousands are finding better ways to solve their mobile problems." Ephraim says that Java enabled cell phones are better. I say that PDAs and cell phones are melting together. Enterprise-level companies look beyond today's simple cell phones and take a harder look at the device platform. Java or .NET is the question, not PDA or cell phone.<br /><br />Reason 2. "Real work requires real computers. As access to the corporate network is getting less and less problematic." Ephraim means that since WiFi adoption is increasing we won't be needing handhelds. I guess he believes everyone wants to carry around a laptop. I say it is not "either or", it is "both and". Connectivty improvements are great and both PDAs and laptops benefit.<br /><br />Reason 3. "Wireless data cards in notebooks offer ubiquitous access." Ephraim observes that since the user can do more with a notebook, then the notebook is a better choice than a connected PDA. I say that the user does not always have to do everything. Sometimes it is more than enough to quickly read and reply to e-mail, browse the web, listen to music and verify an appointment. I can do that with my PDA. Again, I believe that we'll see more of different form factors rather than more of the same. Especially if that "same" is a big notebook.<br /><br />Reason 4. "Bluetooth will be in both cell phones and notebooks before too long." Since Bluetooth can be used to hook up the cell phone and the notebook the need for a PDA diminishes. Serious work, Ephraim says, requires a notebook. I say that some serious work requires a notebook and some serious work does not.<br /><br />We are seeing a market being born not die. More of more, not more of the same. Ephraim does a good job inspiring thoughts. It is just that my thoughts disagree with his.

[eric linsley]

it si no argument that laptops are more capable than any Pda on the market but the biggest difference is portablity.
I used variaous PDAs all through college instead of a laptop.
And i never regreted it. Any major items could always wait till i got home for my main pc.

[Peter Foot]

There will always be a situation where a cell phone is too small, but a laptop is too big. Handhelds are the perfect middle, everyday, 24/7, computing device.

I think what we are seeing in computing now (and of course in the future) is a much wider range of computing devices rather than simply putting everything into the box of desktop pc or phone. Take the tablet pc for example, it blends features of existing PDA design with that of a laptop to produce something more powerful than a PDA and yet easier to carry around and use on the go than a traditional laptop. I think there will be many other computing devices to fill other gaps in the spectrum too, we have a choice of devices from the smart watch (Microsoft SPOT devices) right up to the largest mainframe with a huge number of items at many stages between. The software will evolve, the hardware will evolve but there will continue to be personal devices which we may carry round in our hands or worn about our person somewhere.

The name PDA already covers a multitude of form factors, and these will change as input and output methods change, but we will still have Personal Digital Assistants. Intelligent devices we carry with us to assist with daily life. This need not be as narrow minded as defining such a device as an electronic calendar and addressbook.

[malcolmsharp]

Um... how do we define PDA?

I think the main problem is this... what is a PDA? I'm certianly going to own a smartphone at some point, but it's only going to be good for displaying info and very limited imput.

And a lap top is great! Um... unless I'm hitting the club, or going to a movie, or having dinner with friends, or... get the point?

The PDA stradles the size and functionality problems. I always have my IPaq in my jacket pocket. Even if I had a laptop, I wouldn't bring it unless I planned on useing it. The PDA is just there, even when you weren't expecting to check your e-mail, or get a call to about the server, or check the web becuase someone said at the bar that the war started.

It's just there. And I'm sure they will change, but I have to get back to defining the PDA. A smart phone, no matter how smart, isn't a PDA.

A PDA is a small device with some sort of input other than a phone keypad, has a large enough screen to support touch input and control, and the ability to play multi meda data.

I may just go one device, though I see some problems. There would be something nice about my phone having a PDA form. For one, I hate small phones. Two, I hate typing on a phone key pad.

The PDA will change, but will never die. It may come down to a flexi-screen you pull out of your pocke and unroll, but it will still be a PDA.

[dazz]

Andy,

I have to agree with you on this. I think PDA's will become only more popular for the enterprise.

You are right in that BOTH will be used but I think that for WAY too many users a laptop is over kill. Maybe we will eventually only have one OS whether desktop, tablet, PocketPC, SmartPhone and it will not really matter which hardware you use.

The PocketPC offers far too much too the mobile user to be replaced by laptops. It is kind of like saying that desktops will replace laptops.

Or like saying Star Search will replace American Idol. :wink:

dazz

[Gerard]

In my local Computer Paper today, I read yet another so-called tech journalist saying the by now all too familiar "... my Palm PDA is as portable as it gets, but a writer's tool it is not - even with an external keyboard" (Geoff Hart - The Computer Paper, BC edition). Now, I'm no Palm advocate, as anyone who's read my contributions knows, but this offends me. How can someone like that, or the 'journalist' quoted as the thread-starter here, claim to be properly advising the general (and relatively ignorant) consuming public when they say such blatant crap?! With DocsToGo (or whatever it's called, sorry Palmies) and a few other available packages for the Palm, or with Pocket Word and TextMaker and ClearVue for the PPC, such comments are complete drivel. Same applies in so many aspects of the mainstream media's mentality. It's as though they open the box, spend 5 minutes with a device, and claim an expert knowledge of the full potentials available.
Unfortunately, that sort of lax practice is all too common in the popular media today. The evening news is a baby-food version of reality, with little in the way of analysis or depth of understanding. I suppose such laxity will continue, as the general public seems content with a lack of insight. Makes them feel confortable, wasting their hard-earned dollars based on what some 'pundit' says is the way to go.... or to stay. But for anyone who actually uses one in work-related areas, a Pocket PC (and probably a Palm) is a very serious toolkit, worthy of a share of the limelight. And toting a notebook around, waiting for boot-up, preplacing heavy batteries or searching for an outlet.... that's just downright inconvenient and counter-productive in many environments. Leave the PC at the office. Do everything you can on a PPC, and discover how very close they are in capabilities to any PC.

[Phoenix]

PDA'a are never going away. If anything, they will continue to evolve into devices offering strong integrated wireless capabilities. We see that now in many handhelds with Bluetooth, WiFi, and GSM/GPRS or 1xRTT. Soon, handhelds will offer all three in one unit, as many of us have seen with the new TI prototype. I believe one day, we'll see someone take all three of those wireless technologies and cram in GPS as well. Just as wireless technologies continue to evolve, so do PDA's, and they will continue to do so.

No one can carry a laptop around with them everywhere they go. If PDA's are becoming more and more obsolete, then why are they becoming more and more ubiquitous? Why are more and more people buying them? People have use for them almost as much as they do a cell phone. And most people either can't or don't want to use a hybrid PDA phone (because of the size or for other practical or usability reasons), unless you're talking about a SonyEricsson P800 (which is more phone than PDA, and ultimately, cannot do everything that a Pocket PC can do). Many people still need the bigger screen and additional capabilities and power of the PPC that can't be found in a device like the P800, but don't want to use a device of PPC size as a phone, hence, the need for both cell phone and PDA.

Interesting article, but off base, IMO.

[JackMDS]

I am afraid that Mr. Schwartz is on the right track.

PDAs will not disappear but sale and use will decline to 25% - 40% of what it is now.

Gadget oriented people that do not really do productive work with their PDA, and the people who mainly use the PDA as an “Electronic Rolodex” will migrate down to the “Barbie” Cell phones.

Once the price of the TabletPC will stabilize, and the light TabletPC will come out (currently most of the TabletPCs are Tablet Laptops rather then TabletPC). People who really need to work will migrate up to TabletPC. Many professional users are frustrated with the size of PDA screen that does not yield itself to allow high productivity.

[Gen-M]

Laptops and tablets are too big.
PDAs screens are too small
Phones are even smaller

None of these form factors is what will be in use in the future (or rather they all will be used, but not to the degree today)

We are (not so) slowly moving towards wearable devices with integrated Voice/data communication over multiple protocols with VGA+ display using near-eye HMD and bluetooth earpiece/microphone and an array of data entry devices - keyboards, twiddlers, wireless pens, Handheld trackballs, even smart terminals.

These will allow us to have the power of laptops with the convenience of PDAs integrated with cell phones.

Limiting the debate to "do you prefer buggies or buckboards?" because you don't recognize that technology evolves is ridiculous.

[nz0eBoy]

I also think there is a place for a pda, one of the frustrating things about carrying a laptop, aside form the obvious things like size, is that they take so damn long to start up, even from 'hibernate' mode. My Pocket PC is almost immediately available to give me that piece of information that I need.

[karen]

I am afraid that Mr. Schwartz is on the right track.

PDAs will not disappear but sale and use will decline to 25% - 40% of what it is now.

Gadget oriented people that do not really do productive work with their PDA, and the people who mainly use the PDA as an “Electronic Rolodex” will migrate down to the “Barbie” Cell phones.

Once the price of the TabletPC will stabilize, and the light TabletPC will come out (currently most of the TabletPCs are Tablet Laptops rather then TabletPC). People who really need to work will migrate up to TabletPC. Many professional users are frustrated with the size of PDA screen that does not yield itself to allow high productivity.

I'd agree with you, for the most part, if you added "some" or even "most" in front of "people".

I'm never going to upsize my purse to hold a TabletPC. Never. ...OK, maybe when TabletPCs fold into shapes about the same size as a handheld.

I carry my PPC everywhere my purse goes. Something the size of a sheet of paper, even it were .25 inch thick and weighed &lt;1 pound would still be left in my briefcase, car, or desk.

Of course, I may own a TabletPC as a replacement for my laptop and a smartphone as a replacement for my PPC, but not a TabletPC in lieu of my PPC.

Maybe it's a chick thing; probably not. I'd be lookin' pretty funny at a guy with a TabletPC in his Dockers Mobile Pants... :lol:

Karen

[dbman]

Today, we have small screens, limited memory and poor battery life, but the PDA is still a significant advance over what was available 10-15 years ago. In another 10-15 years, I think the availability of flexible OLEDs or digital paper, combined with universal wireless networking and advanced fuel-cells will make current concepts seem just as primative.

I think we will be using thin flat foldable displays (with on-screen keyboards). These displays will come in a variety of sizes and will offer universal wireless networking. Instead of trying to pack a very fast power-hungry CPU and tons of memory into a portable device, these screens will rely on network processing to do the heavy computing. The screens will need just enough computing power and memory to form the images being viewed. Think of the current smart wireless monitors (or a cell-phones) and make them paper-thin and flexible enough that they can be folded or rolled into something much smaller.

By then, wireless networking should be universal and always available to relay the innformation you see. Most of us will find that we no longer need a computer or a cell-phone.

Again, I could be wrong :D

[Jason Dunn]

How can someone like that, or the 'journalist' quoted as the thread-starter here, claim to be properly advising the general (and relatively ignorant) consuming public when they say such blatant crap?!

I think it really depends on what kind of writing you to Gerard. For instance, with the publishing companies I work with, I could not, as a tech editor and as an author, write a book "PC-less" unless I had a Pocket PC app that allowed me to:

1) Work with Word notes
2) Work with Word styles
3) Full Macro support
4) 100% seamless integration opening, saving, and sending Word XP documents without any data loss

So, right now, I can't use a Pocket PC for my professional writing and editing. That's not to say that I don't WANT to, but right now the software just isn't there.

[jimski]

I am afraid that Mr. Schwartz is on the right track.

PDAs will not disappear but sale and use will decline to 25% - 40% of what it is now.

Gadget oriented people that do not really do productive work with their PDA, and the people who mainly use the PDA as an “Electronic Rolodex” will migrate down to the “Barbie” Cell phones.

Once the price of the TabletPC will stabilize, and the light TabletPC will come out (currently most of the TabletPCs are Tablet Laptops rather then TabletPC). People who really need to work will migrate up to TabletPC. Many professional users are frustrated with the size of PDA screen that does not yield itself to allow high productivity.


I am not so sure. Yes, non productive gadget oriented people may evolve to "Barbie" cell phones, but they will be replaced ten fold by todays teens, who will be tomorrows PDA owners. And these are not going to be Zire owners, but instead will thirst for more processor power and functionality.

While I wish Microsoft well with their Tablet PC initiative (can't believe I just complimented Microsoft, or did I) I just can't find a practical use for it. I have a powerful desktop at home to do with whatever I choose. I have a powerful laptop at the office to travel with and a Pocket PC for everything else.

The Pocket PC is just small enough to fit in my pocket and just large enough to not be too irritating to use. Sounds like a perfect fit to me.

[Phoenix]

I am afraid that Mr. Schwartz is on the right track.

PDAs will not disappear but sale and use will decline to 25% - 40% of what it is now.

Gadget oriented people that do not really do productive work with their PDA, and the people who mainly use the PDA as an “Electronic Rolodex” will migrate down to the “Barbie” Cell phones.

Once the price of the TabletPC will stabilize, and the light TabletPC will come out (currently most of the TabletPCs are Tablet Laptops rather then TabletPC). People who really need to work will migrate up to TabletPC. Many professional users are frustrated with the size of PDA screen that does not yield itself to allow high productivity.

I disagree. I don't think PDA's will decline in sales. Of course, we all have our opinions. But my belief is that PDA's serve a very specific purpose. Tablet PC's are a-whole-nother animal. They serve their specific purpose. People don't need TPC's to do what they do on a PPC, and shouldn't have a PPC if they need the power, sophistication, and larger screen size of a larger device like a TPC. The issue here is also portability. Besides the corporate world, who's going to carry around a device that large wherever they go? Even if TPC's folded down to a small size, they'd be as thick as a pillow. Comparing TPC's to PPC's is like comparing a desktop to a laptop. Each device answers specific needs. Parts of the corporate world might indeed find more benefit in TPC's than in PPC's, but in that case, many companies that need the power of a device like a TPC probably wouldn't be working with handhelds in the first place (which would be foolish in that case, IMO) - they'd be outfitting their mobile workers with wireless laptops to begin with, which would provide the power and sophistication they need. Keeping that in mind, IMO, companies that invest in TPC tech, probably won't negatively affect handheld sales much. But if TPC's replace anything, it won't be handhelds, it'll be laptops. Aside from corporate, as people get more and more accustomed to the idea of handheld technology via its continued exposure, which they are and will, and as prices on handhelds continue to fall while the features increase overall and in power, which they have and will continue to do so, handhelds sales will continue to rise.

Smartphones, although getting smarter, and even with extra power, won't have the screen size, overall power, or features necessary to accomplish what many people will need or want to accomplish. Once again, they serve a specific purpose. I still stick to the belief that PPC's will continue to evolve in their features, and will always serve a purpose in some way for a long time to come, even if only for their balance of size, weight, and screen size in light of how a device of that nature is designed to serve people.

[Phoenix]

Laptops and tablets are too big.
PDAs screens are too small
Phones are even smaller

None of these form factors is what will be in use in the future (or rather they all will be used, but not to the degree today)

We are (not so) slowly moving towards wearable devices with integrated Voice/data communication over multiple protocols with VGA+ display using near-eye HMD and bluetooth earpiece/microphone and an array of data entry devices - keyboards, twiddlers, wireless pens, Handheld trackballs, even smart terminals.

These will allow us to have the power of laptops with the convenience of PDAs integrated with cell phones.

Limiting the debate to "do you prefer buggies or buckboards?" because you don't recognize that technology evolves is ridiculous.

I think one day, wearable tech will be practical - Lord knows it's come a long way (like MIT's MiThrill), but it still has a long way to go.

I think the biggest hurdle, isn't even the technology. It's the fashion end of it. No one wants to wander around looking like a dork with wires and bulky eye pieces. The idea of playing the part of cyborg isn't going to be easy to deal with. Because we're not just talking about people who work inside an office or a warehouse. We're talking about mobile workers who have to interact with the world outside, and normal consumers who do the same.

I've seen Xybernaut systems being worn by models with uber-cool, future-minimalistic outfits, and it does look cool. But of course, this is ridiculous, because most people don't look like this, don't dress like this, and even on the models, it's still too bulky and nerdy in appearance. Until they can shrink the technology down to something that is barely noticable (again, the MiThrill is a huge step toward this), without compromising technological sophistication, handhelds are going to be in use for a long while. Not to mention, it's my belief, based on the hurdles that wearable tech faces, that most people will never accept wearable technology, no matter how advanced and fashionable it becomes. For the others to accept this, even the later generations, there would need to be a massive push in clothing manufacturing with integrated technology, along with very fashionable wireless eyepieces or eyeglasses. I don't think most people would want to get dressed, and then proceed to run wires up and down their sleeves and around their waists as a daily routine or in any circumstance. The technology will need to be integrated into clothing and powerful and feature rich enough to replace handhelds and perhaps even cell phones as well. This type of concept is still many years away from store shelves; making it wide-spread even further away, and IMO, even then, handhelds will be around. I do have to say, though, that the technology is very intriguing.

[cessquill]

I've never really had the requirement for a laptop. A little too bulky to carry around, a little too small to use in anger. Then I guess that's just my line of work.

I have a PDA so that I have a lot of information on me everywhere. No more pockets and wallets full of scrap paper. I don't take it out with me when drinking though. I do not want that functionality in a mobile phone, since I would not want to take a bulky device with me on a nite out. Too expensive to break and lose.

I want a phone to be small, I want a PDA to have a useable screen size. I don't want a laptop. I don't want to compromise because people think that you can converge absolutely everything (otherwise I'd have shoes that are just a bit too small to be a car, but claimed to do the job of both. And fly. :bangin:

[Jan Willem]

Well, Apple Newton was too big, but only because it was the only option ina world not ready for it. If a device of that size would come available with all the hi-tec in it (the 4" Tosh's are on the right track, although because of screen resolution still nothing but a power hungry marketing tool). The main concern in this issue is exactly like Gerard states:

Unfortunately, that sort of lax practice is all too common in the popular media today. The evening news is a baby-food version of reality, with little in the way of analysis or depth of understanding. I suppose such laxity will continue, as the general public seems content with a lack of insight. Makes them feel confortable, wasting their hard-earned dollars based on what some 'pundit' says is the way to go.... or to stay. But for anyone who actually uses one in work-related areas, a Pocket PC (and probably a Palm) is a very serious toolkit, worthy of a share of the limelight.

The PocketPC (or Palm) is for now the best option for what is required today. The PPCP's are the next step and it will evolve into more of more like someone else stated. For text imput, which is still the Achilles'heel of the PDA, will improve over time (I started with the LG Phenom Express, which was awsom but too big...). One of the reasons why I'm sure of this, is because the previous years have proven that this market is so directly guided by the users, OEMs are so much oriented on serving their buyers, that it will always reflect the wishes of their customer groups. And in that sight it is also explainable why cellphone and PDA manufacturers come closer to eachother by every new generation, but also why there issuch a diversity in models. Which will not decrease, but stabalize in a few basic setups. One of which will still be the PDA size as we know it today.

I for one cannot live without it anymore, both privately and corporately.

[rlobrecht]

How can someone like that, or the 'journalist' quoted as the thread-starter here, claim to be properly advising the general (and relatively ignorant) consuming public when they say such blatant crap?!

I read a similar article lately about Tablet PCs. The journalist said that the pure slate form factor of the Tablet PC will never work because he couldn't do what he needed to do with it. Journalism is neither impartial or informed, unfortunately.

[Jan Willem]

[quote=Gerard]Journalism is neither impartial or informed, unfortunately.

I'm afaid you're right, but at the same time it is a worrying idea: it makes itself useless by default, ethics are nowhere to be seen yet still we apply the "truths" provide by our news gatherers as undoubted truths and therefor reality, because that used to be there role: providing an as objective as possible and thorough news to give us a solid ground to base our opinions upon. When this is no longer possible how do we get a handle on what is true and what not? I notice that I read as many newspapers as possible (of all sorts of political corners) watch as many news stations as possible, and I notice I every now and than lack the skills to create a solid and thorough overview of wha tis going on. Except with handhelds, which is a hands on experience for me (us). So anybody who enters this PDA arena, cannot trust anybody by default, what is a saddening thought.

[hollis_f]

I think it really depends on what kind of writing you to Gerard. For instance, with the publishing companies I work with, I could not, as a tech editor and as an author, write a book "PC-less" unless I had a Pocket PC app that allowed me to:

1) Work with Word notes
2) Work with Word styles
3) Full Macro support
4) 100% seamless integration opening, saving, and sending Word XP documents without any data loss

So, right now, I can't use a Pocket PC for my professional writing and editing. That's not to say that I don't WANT to, but right now the software just isn't there.I agree that you'd need a 'proper' PC to polish up the words. But surely you can do the first stages (thinking of the words and getting them written in roughly the right order) on a PPC (even a piece of paper or - maybe - even a palm :devilboy: ). I know I do a lot of my writing like that - even when I'm sitting in front of Word on a desktop I'll often just type the words and sort them out so that they sound and look pretty later.

[pocketpcdude1024]

Yes, non productive gadget oriented people may evolve to "Barbie" cell phones, but they will be replaced ten fold by todays teens, who will be tomorrows PDA owners. And these are not going to be Zire owners, but instead will thirst for more processor power and functionality.

Or today's PDA owners. :wink: I can't see myself hauling a laptop around just to word process in addition to my backpack (~20 lbs) because I can already do that on my Pocket PC, which is much smaller than a laptop. Oh, and I started with the Palm m100. It served me for two years, but when the time came to upgrade, I couldn't settle for the same functionality on a more expensive Palm model. If I recall, my choice was between the Palm m515 and Toshiba e310. For the same price, the Toshiba offered 6x the clock speed, twice the memory, and a higher resolution display. Clearly, I chose the e310. :D

[socrguy74]

In my most humble opinion, I believe that the bell is not tolling for PDAs. They represent a goal of our technologically industrialized nation: miniaturization. Maybe I am borrowing too much from Civ II here :D , but I believe that as products develop, they getter better, faster, and smaller. Look at the evolution of the computer. From room(s) to desktop to laptop to handheld to wrist watch. What next?

The article brings up salient points about usability - but I believe this brings up another issue - AVAILABILITY. How long before we must be productive 95% of our waking hours?

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

I believe that as products develop, they getter better, faster, and smaller. Look at the evolution of the computer. From room(s) to desktop to laptop to handheld to wrist watch. What next?
Right. At the same time, the miniaturization hasn't rendered either desktops or laptops obsolete. I know when I'm home, my use of my PPC goes down dramatically, b/c quite frankly, it's much easier to use my desktop to access my information, but when travelling on the road, I can't survive without my PPC and I can't imagine a phone providing the same functionality as my PPC.

The article brings up salient points about usability - but I believe this brings up another issue - AVAILABILITY. How long before we must be productive 95% of our waking hours?
That is a scary thought. The laptop and the internet have revolutionized the way many of us work; however, it also puts us in a position where we can (and often are expected to) work from anyplace at anytime.

[Alexzander]

My IT department is looking into the PDA as a possible laptop replacement for those users that really only check email and enter a few orders. 0X