Media2Go Devices

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.winsupersite.com/showcase/media2go_preview.asp' target='_blank'>http://www.winsupersite.com/showcas...2go_preview.asp</a><br /><br /></div>"One of two major product announcements Microsoft made at the 2003 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Microsoft "Media2Go" is a platform for portable media players that will begin shipping from OEMs such as Viewsonic in late 2003. From a practical standpoint, Media2Go is essentially a video iPod, albeit with understandably larger dimensions. The devices themselves were co developed with Microsoft partners such as Intel, which designed the original prototype device, but Microsoft was solely responsible for the software side. In this preview, we'll take a look at Media2Go, both from a platform perspective, and from how it works in everyday use."<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/web/media2go_preview_01_sm.jpg" /><br /><br />Paul Thurrott has put together a brief overview of the forthcoming Media2Go platform from Microsoft - a Windows CE .NET-based device - with a few pictures and description of the device. This is basically Microsoft trying to trump the iPod - but, like so many other Microsoft projects, the success or failure will depend largely on the OEMs. The OS might be perfect for this application, the GUI might be lovely, but if the OEMs build ugly devices with poor performance, Media2Go will flop. I wish Microsoft would just build their own device like this - all their hardware is top-notch in quality, and quite nice to look at too! But it's the Microsoft way to build platforms, not devices - time will tell if this is a successful strategy or not.

[pocketpcdude1024]

Can anyone spell "FLOP"?

Before MP3 players, there were CD players, walkmans, etc. all of which have been very successful. However, has anyone seen personal video devices that really took off? I'm betting not. The reason? People can be entertained by a personal audio device and still do other things like drive, jog, and even talk. But when you clog the sense of sight with entertainment, you can do none of these things successfully. I'm betting that the initial cost, size, and the distraction factor will keep people away.

[Foo Fighter]

I'm not quite sure where this product fits in with Microsoft's consumer electronics and Mobile strategies? It handles multimedia files and allows consumers to take their favorite media with them on the go. Uh....I thought that ground was already covered by PPC?

This seems like a solution looking for a problem. What's the point? :?

[toshtoshtosh]

gotta agree with Foo here. I don't see where this is going. I do not think there is space for 2 such similar devices (Pocket PC and Media2Go). Is MS attempting to hit some kind of virtual jackpot by trial and error, are they testing the market for something a little bit different that works better?

Very strange indeed.

[Brad Adrian]

I'd view this more as a proof-of-concept product. I could see a market for a device which would wirelessly download news clips each morning for viewing during a morning commute. I know you can do that with a Pocket PC now, but if this were optimized for that kind of thing, it might attract a certain esoteric following.

It will NOT sell millions, though...

[marconelly]

Media2Go is very poorly choosen name, IMO. Sounds like one of those dotcom-disaster company names.

[Foo Fighter]

I'd view this more as a proof-of-concept product....

Yeah, I think you're right. Sort of a "look what we can do!" type of gadget.

[rubberdemon]

I agree that to a PPC owner this seems redundant. But what might be useful about this device is if the functionality here could be integrated into the next gen pocket PCs. They're talking about screens larger than 320*240, obviously a processor optimized to display full screen full motion video, and built on the next OS. For me this shouts 'better, faster, stronger' ppcs rather than an ipod for video.

[toshtoshtosh]

Media2Go is very poorly choosen name, IMO. Sounds like one of those dotcom-disaster company names.

LOL, exactly. Horrible name :).

[vincentsiaw]

why would i buy such a device if my pda can perfectly perform this task anyway? :roll:

[Foo Fighter]

I agree that to a PPC owner this seems redundant.

It isn't just PPCs. Multimedia is making its way into cell phones as well. Why would I want to carry around this contraption if my cell phone supports the same features? There just isn't a need for this sort of device.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

I'd view this more as a proof-of-concept product. I could see a market for a device which would wirelessly download news clips each morning for viewing during a morning commute. I know you can do that with a Pocket PC now, but if this were optimized for that kind of thing, it might attract a certain esoteric following.
Right, I suppose I could see specific circumstances where this could be useful, but I just don't believe there is any real demand for this kind of standalone functionality... in the communter scenario, I would venture to guess that the majority of morning communters do so as a single driver, which in that case they wouldn't have much room for this device either...

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

Multimedia is making its way into cell phones as well. Why would I want to carry around this contraption if my cell phone supports the same features?
Well, if they put a VGA-like screen into these with underlying hardware optimized for video playback, they would have some advantages over a PDA or a mobile. However, I still don't think those features would create the demand needed to make this essential.

Mobile video is really a luxury that we don't make use of all that often to begin with... it works well when packaged as part of a device that most of us consider essential such as a PDA or a mobile phone...

[derosnec]

I can just imagine a licensing scheme like our beloved e-books. You register it for your media2go device, your PDA, your mobile phone and your PC. One year later you can't use the media because you've reformatted your pc, bought a laptop, dropped your mobile phone and converted to *alm 8O Okay maybe not the last point :)
Good idea, but about 1.5 years too late I think.

[Sheynk]

I think you guys are wrong


If Media2Go can provide good frame rates (unlike ppc videos) with a high quality and a 20gb HD then I would get one

This way for about 400 bucks I get all my media squared away....I dont know about this. If circuit city gets one of these then my extended warranty might be put to use with a certain "hard resetting" problem. After the prive matched and rebates I would get money after the 15% restocking fee he he.........wow said too much already

[jeffmd]

These things will flop mainly for one reason. price. I dont really doubt that they will charge out the ass for these things. The sad thing is, a pocket PC for the same price will do the same, plus more.

Heres a multitude of reasons why a pocket pc is just better.

#1 all portable digital video devices ive seen are windows media based. This is going to create problems creating video on non-windows computers.

#2 anyone who has dabbled in the video capabilities on the pocket pc knows that MS has not been able to get full frame rate 320x240 video going yet on their player. Pocket MVP (formaly known as pocket divx) how ever has been able to do 320x240 30fps video, and at good quality too.

#3 memory, the players ive seen use a hard drive. Any pocket pc user with an ibm microdrive knows those things kill battery life fast unless you have a large lithium laptop battery. Solid state memory is the best way to go, and with divx, even a 256 meg card of some type can store a couple hours of video.

#4 size, the poratble video players are bulky, mainly because of their laptop size HD in them, and their battery. pocket PCs are slim and sleek.

#5 screen quality. Pocket video players can get away with a lesser screen since its main purpose is for the viewability of images, not the readability of text. A pocket pc on the other hand will give you a top notch screen.

#6 upgrades, pocket MVP is consistantly updated, support new formats (like ogg), and improving its decoder engine. when was the last time you saw anything like that from other stand alone units? Also with a pocket pc your not just limited to one player (though this mainly holds true to audio. there IS kind of only one movie player for divx, though pocket TV would count as a second choice, but its only for MPEG, and who uses that anymore?)

#7 if you allready have a pocket pc (or plan to get one) why buy yet another device you have to carry around?

[T-Will]

Media2Go is only Microsoft's codename.

[bitbank]

This does seem like a bad idea. I would think a better way to do it would be to release a "Media Center" version of the Pocket PC software, just like XP now has. That way it can be "appliance-like" in its simplicity to do multimedia and still have the PPC OS to be able to run tons of standard software.

Instead of fragmenting the market even more, why not encourage OEMs to make more multimedia-centric PPC 2003 devices?

Looks like someone at MS is playing darts with the market and seeing which one hits the bullseye...

1) Pocket PC
2) Pocket PC Phone
3) SmartPhone
4) Media2Go
5) TablePC
6) ??

L.B.

[dean_shan]

I think that this would be a great device if it could play DIVX movies and had video out. It would be great to be able to load it up with your divx files and watch them on trip while you were on the bus and watch them in the room when you reach your destination.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

I think you guys are wrong

If Media2Go can provide good frame rates (unlike ppc videos) with a high quality and a 20gb HD then I would get one
Well, no one said that it wouldn't sell at all. I'm sure some people would want this device, but do you really think it will sell enough for companies to justify the costs? Where's the business case here? There really isn't one if you ask me. PDAs/Mobile Phones/Audio Players are all devices that serve a clear set of needs/demands.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

I think that this would be a great device if it could play DIVX movies and had video out. It would be great to be able to load it up with your divx files and watch them on trip while you were on the bus and watch them in the room when you reach your destination.
Right, with better definition and underlying hardware/software that is optimized to play video, thus is an ideal device for trips and bus commutes. Unfortunately, it still makes this device little more than a niche device (or a travelling entertainment device for those who don't possess laptops)...

[dean_shan]

Unfortunately, it still makes this device little more than a niche device (or a travelling entertainment device for those who don't possess laptops)...

How true. It's the same thing with the portable DVD players. Yeah they are nice, but am I going to get one, no. The laptop will do just fine.

[Jason Dunn]

I agree that to a PPC owner this seems redundant.

It isn't just PPCs. Multimedia is making its way into cell phones as well. Why would I want to carry around this contraption if my cell phone supports the same features? There just isn't a need for this sort of device.

I think you're too quick to dismiss this product.

The iPod is selling like gangbusters, even though many modern cell phones play MP3s. Why? Because even though you CAN play MP3s on a cell phone, it's not very well suited for that task.

Media2Go is a little rough around the edges, but when you look at the Media Center PC, 9 Series Windows Media efforts, and then the Media2Go device, you'll see a strategy forming: Microsoft vs. Apple, and the crown is "digital media hub".

Microsoft isn't as stupid as some of you think they are. :wink: :lol:

[Pony99CA]

gotta agree with Foo here. I don't see where this is going. I do not think there is space for 2 such similar devices (Pocket PC and Media2Go). Is MS attempting to hit some kind of virtual jackpot by trial and error, are they testing the market for something a little bit different that works better?

Very strange indeed.
I don't see them as that similar. The Pocket PC has more in common with the Pocket PC Phone Edition than with Media2Go, but did people complain about that? What about the Pocket PC Phone Edition vs. the SmartPhone? Those are similar, too.

If you don't like these, don't buy them, but why worry? They're a cool concept; in fact, the Archos video player (http://www.techtv.com/news/ces2003/story/0,24195,3413927,00.html) won Best of CES. Granted, it has a 40 GB hard disk and can record video with an optional accessory, but devices like these seem to be taking MP3 players to the next level -- video.

Steve

[Pony99CA]

I agree that to a PPC owner this seems redundant.
It isn't just PPCs. Multimedia is making its way into cell phones as well. Why would I want to carry around this contraption if my cell phone supports the same features? There just isn't a need for this sort of device.
I think you're too quick to dismiss this product.

The iPod is selling like gangbusters, even though many modern cell phones play MP3s. Why? Because even though you CAN play MP3s on a cell phone, it's not very well suited for that task.

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought of the iPod comparison. :-) Comparing watching video on your Pocket PC or cell phone :!: to Media2Go just seems silly. Did I miss a 20 GB hard disk option for my Pocket PC? :-)

Steve

[bjornkeizers]

I could see myself buying one of these for a reasonable price [&lt;250 euro's]

If I can slip this in a cradle, dump some files in it.. it should have like PPC2002, but instead of word and excel, powerpoint, etc. you'd have a slideshow app, a decent player, you could expand it.. view word and excel files on it.. maybe add some editing capability.. it should support themes and such like our today screen.. Like a mix between a scaled down PPC and a really nice MP3 player. Oh and it needs to have at least a 5 gb harddrive. I lug around an Archos Jukebox recorder.. it has 10 gb, so enough memory for an entire vacation in the bahama's, without having to listen to the same song twice.

I could just put my vacation shots in there, a couple files, put in a lot of MP3's, maybe a couple of themes.. good to go.

Yeah, I could see myself using this.

[Felix Torres]

First, Media2Go is a code name. Like Freestyle or Mira. It won't last. The final product name will likely be a lot more pedestrian, like "Portable Media Center". ;-)

Second, these gizmos are *not* aimed at the PPC audience. Or the PC audience for that matter. They are aimed at the DVD-player audience. In case you hadn't noticed, there are dozens of portable DVD-player devices out there selling at prices from $200-$1200. And the keyword is selling. One of the largest market segments for these products are families with kids and minivans/SUVs who need something to entertain the backseat riders on long road trips.

Third, the Media2Go specs are the *minimum* needed to obtain MS certification. The word is a lot of the shipping devices will have built-in DVD drives, possibly built-in DVD-archiving capability. Most will have relatively large, wide aspect ratio screens, say in the six to 10 inch range. They will also feature external video ports for hooking up to a home system.

Fourth, the price will *not* be anywhere near $300. Not with built-in portable DVD drives and large screen and the batteries needed to support them for six to eight hours.

As for what MS is doing, well, duh; that much is obvious!
MS is identifying the various kinds of content that will exist in digital form over the next decade (personal data, messages, notes, music, books, videos, games, etc) and building information appliances that will manage and display that content for non-PC customers (which in the US still add up to 40+percent of the population).

For personal data -> PPCs
For messages -> Smartphones
For notes -> Spot devices, tablet PCs
For books -> PPCs,Tablet PCs, and probably an upcoming product
For music -> PPCs, WMA-enabled players, HiMAT DVD players,
their new CD-protection format, and the Media2Go
jukeboxes
For Video -> HiMAT DVD-players and Media2Go devices
For Games -> XBOX, of course
and, lest we forget, the first MS info-appliance:
Internet access -> MSN TV, nee WebTV

All of this can be achieved through desktop PCs, Notebooks, TabletPCs and, yes, PocketPCs *if* you are tech-savvy. But there are usually compromises. And the folks that are *not* tech savvy or who *choose* not to be bothered with the flexibility (and complexity) of the PC-based solutions are a non-trvial market. There is money to be made off them, folks!

The MS digital media devices are thus aimed at non-PC users; non-tech-savvy customers who still need access to digital content or affluent customers who may be tech-savvy but willingly pay a premium for the convenience of a dedicated device. And, even at a premium, they will be way smaller and cheaper than existing portable *consumer* video solutions while providing greater capability *and* the ability to use them inside the house as well as on the road.

Will they sell?
To a large extent, that will depend on the hardware partners.
The key issue for MS in all the digital content arenas is that if the MS solution doesn't sell, then mostlt likely neither will anybody else's.
MS doesn't need to dominate these emerging markets; they just need to make sure nobody else does. All they need a piece of the pie or the certanty that there is no pie to be had. Witness their Web TV and XBOX strategies, both of which have succeeded in that basic goal of firmly planting the MS flag in the info-appliance arena even if neither is likely to evolve into a Windows-sized franchise. Folks think MS needs 90+ market share everywhere; they don't. All they need to be a a major player in whatever market they choose to enter, which Media2Go will probably achieve, because MS has the most comprehensive suite of high-quality data formats (WMA, WMV, MS Reader, etc) and a solid, flexible, *optional* DRM solution to go along with a full suite of four OS kernals to host these newly emerging platforms.

For MS these new markets are side-bets; a no-risk chance on a new market that could deliver a nice multi-billion dollar a year industry (like XBOX) or a tiny almost neglible franchise like WebTV, all for minimal risk.
The fun part is watching to see which way the market chooses to go.

[Pony99CA]

For MS these new markets are side-bets; a no-risk chance on a new market that could deliver a nice multi-billion dollar a year industry (like XBOX) or a tiny almost neglible franchise like WebTV, all for minimal risk.

I wouldn't call the XBox "minimal risk" for Microsoft. The last I heard, Microsoft loses over $100 for every XBox sold, which they hope to make up with games sale. I wonder how that's going.

Playsation 2 is still kicking the XBox's butt in sales, too, so your "no market" philosophy doesn't apply here.

Steve

[Buddha]

I think Felix is right, this isn't aimed at people that want to know/tweak or install, this is aimed at people that want 'plug and play'. People that don't want to think, just pop in a show and watch.

But I don't see these devices beeing sold like hot bread to the 'normal' people yet, it'll eventually come maybe when they are as expensive as a discman but i think that is at least 2 to 5 years away.
It's not like everybody is gonna offers in-car video entertainment to their kids just to keep the annoying little brats quiet while driving. :wink: When I walk in the city or sit in the car/train/bus I still don't see people watching little videoplayers by the dozens, walkman: yes, laptop: maybe (not all that often either) and there are already a multitude of portable DVD, VCDplayers etc on the market.
Actually the only person I often see doing such things is myself :D and I still get curious looks from people who stare @me thinking: "What the hell is that he's doing? Is that possible!?"


Still even if it is a hit, I don't think it going to be as widespread as the iPOD, for the same reasons somebody else mentioned: while listening to music you can do something else whilst with watching video you can't.

Personally I wouldn't buy it, since it 'smells' like 'WMV-only' and annoying DRM schemes but then again I already have a VCDvideowalkman and PPC that fill all my needs 8)

[surur]

I think Felix has sown it up basically, but just to add my 2c

This device will obviously run some CE variant on a probably X-scale based chip. It will likely (just like the Media centre pc's) be able to run other applications besides just the multimedia ones, and would be differentiated from normal pocketpc's by proce mainly... eg. normal viewsonic $300, M2G viewsonic $700.

Apparently the media centre PC's are selling like hotcakes (ie above expectation of us people who *know* you can do all the media centre things with *any* pc, just not as well intergreated). There is obviously a mass of people who would pay over the odds for a polisehd intergrated "experience". This is just more of the same, and not really a competitor for the pocketpc but more a off shot (like dallas and knot landing :)

Anyways $700 would not be too much if it offers a *superset* of what we have now. If its a subset and with limited functionality it would not appeal to me, but it may to others. Im sure many of us in europe have pays about $700 for their pocketpc's (i certainly have for my Loox) and a more capable machine for the same price would be quite attractive. The choice then would be to buy one of those, or follow the market and save money on the cheaper machine which are now hitting the market

Surur

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

Second, these gizmos are *not* aimed at the PPC audience. Or the PC audience for that matter. They are aimed at the DVD-player audience. In case you hadn't noticed, there are dozens of portable DVD-player devices out there selling at prices from $200-$1200. And the keyword is selling. One of the largest market segments for these products are families with kids and minivans/SUVs who need something to entertain the backseat riders on long road trips.
If their largest selling segment are families looking to entertain kids in the back seat then that doesn't still doesn't translate to a lot of units. MS just couldn't be trying to target that small of an audience unless the profit margins are obscenely high!!

I personally believe that their target market has to be much larger than this. I think Jason has it correct in saying they're aiming for a video iPod kind of concept in which the target users would include technical and non-technical alike. That being said, the iPod is selling HUGE because it's simply a stylish & superior portable audio solution. However portable audio has been in huge demand for at least the past 20 years (going back to the original Walkmans). With these "Media2Go" devices, they're really trying to carve out a new market that just doesn't exist currently. Which is why I'm skeptical as to how successful this will be.

[st63z]

The market is already heading this way, witness the "video iPod" product plans demoed at recent shows. I guess it's the in vogue thing in this segment and a natural progression to the next level as individual companies try to differentiate. We've known Intel has been working on this XScale PVP reference designs w/ hardware partners for quite awhile, so I think it makes sense for MS to have stepped in to join. Others like RCA, Archos are also developing in this segment, but going their own way...

http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?&p=65358#65358

P.S. I'm still gonna put it out there though I know I'll be shot down.. I want a PPC w/ embedded HDD (1" would be nice but I'd prefer 1.8"). I hear Toshiba will have a 40GB 1.8" HDD (?) :D

[Pony99CA]

[...]I don't think it going to be as widespread as the iPOD, for the same reasons somebody else mentioned: while listening to music you can do something else whilst with watching video you can't.

You do realize that this will play audio and video, right? This means you'll have the functionality of the iPod (if it's done properly) with the additional capability of video if you want it.

teve

[Buddha]

Yes I do :) You may have a point there if the price stays around 400$ but if its higher I doubt that it will be a selling argument for people that initially just wanted a 'walkman' :wink:

Also I still wonder, if it will allow different music formats to be played and this doesn't end in another move from microsoft to strengthen the position of its WMA/WMV format. I think even 'normal' people want to be able to play MP3s not WMA, since that is the common format. We'll see, we'll see time will tell. :)

[Pony99CA]

Yes I do :) You may have a point there if the price stays around 400$ but if its higher I doubt that it will be a selling argument for people that initially just wanted a 'walkman' :wink:

Well, the 20 GB iPod sells for $500 (and isn't discounted much, if ever, from what I've heard), so I don't think paying $600 for a device that adds video support would be excessive.


Also I still wonder, if it will allow different music formats to be played and this doesn't end in another move from microsoft to strengthen the position of its WMA/WMV format. I think even 'normal' people want to be able to play MP3s not WMA, since that is the common format. We'll see, we'll see time will tell. :)

That is a worry. I have a lot of MP3 files on my iPAQ, and I would hate to have to re-rip my CDs or transcode MP3s to WMA files. However, if WMA files at a given bit-rate really do sound better than equivalent MP3 files, that might not be such a bad thing. :?

Steve

[Felix Torres]

"If their largest selling segment are families looking to entertain kids in the back seat then that doesn't still doesn't translate to a lot of units. MS just couldn't be trying to target that small of an audience unless the profit margins are obscenely high!!"

Well, for starters there are about 6.3 Million Minivans out there that are 5 years old or newer (courtesy of www.carmetrics.com) *and* new minivan sales are on the order of 1.2-1.3 million a year. As for SUVs, there are 15-20 million of them out there, that are 5 years old or newer, with annual sales of about 4 Million a year between large, small, and mid-size models. So you are looking at a target market of about 25 million prospective customers who are quite willing to pop for a $20-40,000 vehicle and hence hardly afraid of even a $1000 add-on with serious "off-road". ;-)

Now, while a lot of the SUVs are being sold for actual off-road/utility use, the majority are being bought as minivan/station wagon alternatives (just look at the TV commercials to get an idea of the target audiences). So if you get a market penetration of only 3-4% among family vehicle buyers (and this includes actual station wagons, large sedans, and the newer cross-over vehicles) you're talking something like a million customers and a $1 billion a year business.

Obviously sales would go up at lower price points where you could in fact target college students and young singles, but you could do a lot worse than target families as your initial ramp-up market for portable video devices and worry later about appealing to the downscale markets.

For comparison purposes, keep in mind that HP and Toshiba Pocket PC sales run in the hundreds of thousands per year and even Palm only sells a million or so of their $100 organizers per year.

Ramping up a new market is as much about expectations as about price-points and profit margins; Media Center PCs have been declared a success when their initial sales run only in the tens of thousands, while some people see the XBOX as a failure after sales of 8 million in its first year, despite heavy competition from two strong, entrenched competitors that have succeeded in blocking off the japanese market entirely to the XBOX. Few stop to consider that XBOX has gone from zero to 25% market share (and a $4 Billion a year slice of the console market) in one year and it is already outselling Nintendo on a day to day basis by 25%. Microsoft, to judge by their public statements, expected to do a bit better but they are hardly about to fold up their tent and walk away from a likely $5-6 billion a year business in XBOX sales. More likely, they will find ways to reduce the manufacturing cost of the box and look for ways to increase revenues off their high-end gamer customer base through online and media-player options. (You *have* heard MS is considering letting the XBOX serve as a media terminal off a home networked PC, no? all it requires is a port of Windows Media Player to the XBOX...)

Anyway, the success of the Media2Go boxes hinges mostly on the hardware designs and the added value each vendor brings to the table, but looking from the outside, it appears to be a gamble worth taking both from the vendor *and* the customer side of the equation. Its just that where audio players tend to skew to younger, more active buyers, the video equivalent will likely skew to older buyers with dependents on their income tax form.

My best guess is the little boxes will ramp up sales slower than XBOX but faster than the Media Center PC or the Pocket PC itself and be a solid business for years to come.

But that's all it is, alright? Just an educated guess.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

Anyway, the success of the Media2Go boxes hinges mostly on the hardware designs and the added value each vendor brings to the table, but looking from the outside, it appears to be a gamble worth taking both from the vendor *and* the customer side of the equation. Its just that where audio players tend to skew to younger, more active buyers, the video equivalent will likely skew to older buyers with dependents on their income tax form.
Good stats regarding the minivans / SUVs. However, I'm curious as to how many of those SUVs are purchased as a family vehicles, especially considering their low carry capacity and low MPG ratings (I must have a dozen or so friends with SUVs and maybe a couple of them use it as family vehicle). My guess is that they normally serve as solo or single-passenger vehicles in day-to-day useage whereas Minivans serve a very specific purpose as a family vehicle. Obviously, in such cases, portable video devices would be of limited use.

As for the Media Center PCs and XBox, that's an apples-to-oranges comparison. I think media entertainment in the home is HUGE business and the Media Center PC concept was a TERRIFIC move by MS... but for people on the go, I can think of only a small number of scenarios where portable video would be of any practical use.

Now I'm seeing some mention of a combo audio/video device which makes sense, but realize that in order to accomodate a screen, we're increasing size, and with increased size comes decreased portability... and IMO not-too-portable devices really serve a niche market only. The exception of course is if the screen is small enough, but then we start getting into the "Why not just use a PPC/Mobile phone?" argument.

[Felix Torres]

"As for the Media Center PCs and XBox, that's an apples-to-oranges comparison. I think media entertainment in the home is HUGE business and the Media Center PC concept was a TERRIFIC move by MS... "

I dunno about that; both XBOX and MC PCs are living room devices that justify their existence in terms of entertainment value. So I'd say the comparison is more like Grapefruits and oranges; both suitable alternatives for breakfast drinks and diet desserts...

*And* I think *both* are good ideas and think both will do well in relation to their *targeted* markets.

Ditto with the Media2Go boxes; they should do well in their targeted market. Now, how big that market is is what's up for grabs; is it WebTV small? Or is it Desktop PC big? Something in the middle seems reasonable to me; not an whole industry unto itself but hardly a niche that can be safely ignored, either.

Then comes the ramp-up question; how many people will buy the first-gen products?
There's only so many gadget-crazy yuppies to go around (as SONY discovered with eVilla) so you really need a specific target other than just "early adopters". Me, I think munchkin-ladden suburbanites (the Clintonian Soccer parents) make a natural target. And I think they're good for a market comparable to that of the Pocket PCs. How quickly they'll adopt the new toys is, of course, undetermined since we have yet to even see the specs for actual shipping products; just the minimum specs for branding. We'll just have to stay tuned.

As for the PPC/phone alternatives, here's a simple question: how many kids can watch a movie on a PPC or phone screen at once?

In other words, PPCs and smartphones are mostly single viewer devices.
Early Media2Go devices will likely be too expensive to be anything but multi-viewer devices. Indeed, most portable DVD players tend to run on larger, higher-quality screens with wider viewing angles than PPCs and smartphones, so I doubt the products will be at all interchangeable, just like grapefruits and oranges (and MC PCs and XBOXES) are not quite interchangeable.

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

As for the Media Center PCs and XBox, that's an apples-to-oranges comparison. I think media entertainment in the home is HUGE business and the Media Center PC concept was a TERRIFIC move by MS... "
I dunno about that; both XBOX and MC PCs are living room devices that justify their existence in terms of entertainment value. So I'd say the comparison is more like Grapefruits and oranges; both suitable alternatives for breakfast drinks and diet desserts...
My point was that both XBox and MC PCs are home devices (and complementary ones at that)... the demand and success of either XBox or MC PC exists doesn't logically lead to success for a portable device.

Homes (and any other location where the consumer is resting in one area) are the ideal places to enjoy video-based entertainment. So while televisions are a major part of american culture, portable televisions are not.

As for the PPC/phone alternatives, here's a simple question: how many kids can watch a movie on a PPC or phone screen at once?
My point above was in regards to those that believe in the audio/video type of iPod concept which is different from what you're describing. That type of device would not be aimed at the market you're describing but at individuals, in which case, I still don't believe there is a sizeable demand.

In other words, PPCs and smartphones are mostly single viewer devices.
Early Media2Go devices will likely be too expensive to be anything but multi-viewer devices. Indeed, most portable DVD players tend to run on larger, higher-quality screens with wider viewing angles than PPCs and smartphones, so I doubt the products will be at all interchangeable, just like grapefruits and oranges (and MC PCs and XBOXES) are not quite interchangeable.
Well, I would never compare portable DVD players to PPCs or Smartphones. I would however say that DVD players provide far less value-add to those that own notebooks PCs.

I could see the device you're describing as being a competive with portable DVDs, and while that might be a profitable venture, it's still (in my mind) a niche market.

BTW, I'm glad we can keep this civil. After all, we're just two folks exchanging opinions... :wink:

[Felix Torres]

"Well, I would never compare portable DVD players to PPCs or Smartphones. I would however say that DVD players provide far less value-add to those that own notebooks PCs.
"I could see the device you're describing as being a competive with portable DVDs, and while that might be a profitable venture, it's still (in my mind) a niche market.
BTW, I'm glad we can keep this civil. After all, we're just two folks exchanging opinions... :wink: "


Why shouldn't we be able to keep it civil? This isn't SLASHDOT, now is it?
And most of the stuff discussed here costs money so its not likely to interest the LINUX fanatics. >;-)

Anywaaayyy...

Stepping back a bit, wouldn't you say that *all* info appliances are *by definition* narrow-focus products? The whole idea of info appliances is to produce *targeted-use* devices, "masters of one trade", as opposed to the modular, multi-purpose devices that are PCs; they *all* trade off some power and flexibility for convenience and utility. Even Pocket PCs.

Stepping back further, itsclear that *all* info appliances reduce, in essense, to a CPU, a display, a control panel, some RAM, some ROM and a bit of persistent storage of one kind or another. Whether it be a Digital Music Player, an ebook, a set-top box, an organizer, or a pocket PC. The same applies to the XBOX and the full-blown PC (Desktop, Tablet, or Media Center). They are all the same device in reality; a personal computer.

What changes are the optimizations (or lack thereoff) and the value propositions which steer the hardware into different markets. This is not unlike cars, where all have four wheels, an engine, a drivetrain, a passenger canbin and a cargo hold. But by optimizing the value proposition for different audiences, you get very different products. Nobody is going to haul manure in a Ferrari or escort a president in a pickup-truck, after all.

The car market is a mature market and it matured on the road here from the early Model Ts, it splintered into coupes and sedans, station wagons, minivans, SUVs, and pickup trucks.
The same with personal computing.
The business is maturing and evolving and, yes, splintering.
And MS is actively engaged in helping that process along for very good strategic reasons.

The reason MS is promoting so many different mutant platforms is that they see an opportunity to carve up the monolithic Personal Computing market into smaller market segments that can be best addressed by optimized, targeted hardware platforms. This serves three purposes that I can see:

1- The consumer gets an easier to use product that more closely attacks their needs
2- Manufacturers (and MS) get to charge a premium for the extra features
3- The resultant products put distance between the MS offerings and the alternatives from the APPLE, JAVA, and LINUX camps. Carve up the industry into enough optimized segments and the LINUX and JAVA one-size fits all solutions will fail. As a quick example; What kind of handwriting recognition solutions can JAVA or LINUX offer? What kind of high-end gaming APIs can APPLE or JAVA offer? Where is the Macintosh Tablet PC? There is a strong tactical advantage in a divide-and-conquer strategy when you hold the high ground as MS does at this point.

So, getting back to Media2Go boxes:

Portable DVD players comprise a CPU, RAM, ROM, a control panel, persistent storage in the form of a DVD drive, a relatively large and expensive screen, and enough battery power to drive them long enough for 3-5 hours.

The Media2Go spec calls for replacing or suplementing the DVD drive with a hard drive (more expensive) and it allows for smaller (cheaper) screens but it does not require them. Going by component costs, it is easy to see that the M2G boxes are going to cost about the same as a good portable DVD player. And at those prices, the device is unlikely to in volume as a personal-use device like a PPC, ebook reader, digital music player, or smartphone. Or, for that matter, a laptop.

Now, assuming MS and its partners are *not* idiots, they have to be looking at a different market than the buyers of existing personal use devices. A different kind of customer.

Does this customer exist? In enough numbers to justify the venture?
I think it does. I identified a reasonably sized target market that *is* buying and looking to buy portable video players of one kind or another. Others probably exist. But they all probably share a profile significantly different from that of the bulk of the visitors to this forum who are, after all, users of a multi-purpose *personal-use* device.

The first inclination of the tech media was to compare the M2G boxes to the digital jukeboxes because the hardware is so similar and in general those folks tend to look at the future strictly from the filter of the past. Which is why they failed to see much value in Tablet PCs outside of niches and why they keep thinking of XBOX as a downscale PC; they think in terms of their needs and the needs of existing PC customers, whereas MS is targeting the needs of people who *not* have PCs or are not using them for those functions.

So, of course the value proposition of an M2G box is going to be very different from that of a laptop. You can get a DVD-equipped Toshiba laptop with a 14" screen and a DVD player for $850 these days. And it'll do everything the M2G boxes will and more. You just need to know how to deal with them. M2G boxes will likely cost more than that laptop and have smaller screens. But that doesn't necessarily make them non-starters. Because they will likely offer greater ease of use, greater portability, better battery life than the multipurpose laptop.

And its likely customer doesn't want a laptop. otherwise they would have already bought one.

Which brings up back to my first point: info appliances are meant to be optimized for specific markets and how well the hardware meets the needs of that specific market, along with the natural size of that market, is what will determine is success. Not what the tech media or IT community thinks.

MS may very well fail; it *might* be that the natural size of the market does not support the price point that existing technology and the early ramp-up volumes will impose on the product. It *could* fail.

But I don't think it will.
I think there are enough would be buyers out there; all that has to be done is lead them to the water and see if they'll drink. ;-)

[Ekkie Tepsupornchai]

Felix, I pretty much agree with everything you said. My sticking point is how big that market segment is that MS and all the affiliated vendors are aiming for with these devices.

For me, it all boils down to this: We've mentioned PPCs, desktops, laptops and all those other devices. Let's ignore all of that. Even if laptop computers and PPCs didn't exist, I STILL don't see sizeable demand for portable video simply b/c it just inherently limits what people can do when they're on the go, whereas music is perfectly complementary and provides only a few limitations.

Again, there will be a demand, but IMO that demand will be limited to a specific market segment (just as you mentioned)... I agree that this market segment will be highly aligned with the "Portable DVD Player" crowd... I just also believe that that crowd constitutes more of a niche market than mass appeal, which is perhaps the intention of MS.

We'll see.