All In One Utopia?

[Andy Sjostrom]

<a href="http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/stories/story/0,10738,2896754,00.html">http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/stories/story/0,10738,2896754,00.html</a><br /><br />Visitor Pierre Karlsson pointed me to an interesting article written by David Coursey, Executive Editor, AnchorDesk. The article is called <a href="http://www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/stories/story/0,10738,2896754,00.html">"Why all-in-one handhelds will never catch on"</a>.<br /><br />Here are some snippets from the article:<br />"The conventional wisdom--or perhaps it's the wireless industry's common prayer--is that messaging and multimedia will be the Next Big Thing in wireless. After all, Swedish kids spend almost their entire allowances sending short text messages to one another and the Japanese are gaga sending each other pictures they've taken with their cell phones. Or so we are told. It's supposed to follow that American teens will do the same, using their phones for what amounts to expensive instant messaging, and that parents will start capturing their Kodak moments on a phone for immediate dispatch to relatives. I HATE TO BREAK IT to the wonderful folks in the wireless industry, but I think both scenarios are bunk."<br /><br />David then goes on and constructively explains his own predications for the wireless industry. All in all I agree with his conclusions, although I can't help reacting to the following: "As for applications, SMS messaging--the 160-character instant messages the Euro kids are all nuts over--will never be nearly as big here. Why? Because most Americans already have other ways to access the Net; Europeans rely more on their wireless devices because home Internet penetration there lags behind the U.S."<br /><br />Very funny! Internet penetration in the Nordic countries is around 80%. In Sweden, I it's even more. That's an Internet penetration that kicks ass with any country's ditto -- including the US. So, the explanation to why SMS won't take on in the US is not related to poor Internet penetration over seas. Instead, I believe it is a combination of <i>relatively</i> high Internet penetration in the US which will drive wireless IP based messaging and the adoption of the old fashion pager. Be that as it may.<br /><br />Pierre's own conclusion is that most of us don't want more devices, but different people want different devices. That is possible, according to Pierre, by making different devices or modular devices on top one platform. I agree. Do you?<br /><br /><b>UPDATE:</b> Internet penetration in Sweden is 67.9 %, although lower than I thought, it is the highest percentage found on <a href="http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm">Internet World Stats</a>. Thanks to WillyG for the link!

[WillyG]

Internet usage and penetration statistics here:
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm

[Peter Foot]

I laughed at the SMS comment in the original article, contrary to US opinion the UK (and the rest of Europe) has a high internet penetration. SMS is not an alternative to the internet, or email but a complementary service. One reason why SMS is not a big thing in the US is probably due to the fact it has lagged behind Europe on mobile technology and interoperability between networks.

I think there is already a wide choice of device types for different users and this is growing steadily. If you want a bare bones voice handset theres a huge choice, at the bottom end of the range these are very cheap. At the other end of the spectrum we have Pocket PC Phone Edition devices and similar which are primarily Data centric with voice features. And though the middle of these two extremes are a wide choice of devices with some data features such as WAP, Java, GPRS etc, and of course Microsoft has a foot in the door here with Smartphone. Throughout that whole selection theres certainly something for everyone.

[krisbrown]

Americans just don't get SMS , they can't understand why people would type a slow message out, when you could just ring instead.
I can see their point, but the real reason I believe is because Americans are incessant yappers, who will give you their whole day, just to describe one part of it.
How many times have you been in a public place in Europe and you can hear 2 Americans talkin at the top of their voices about everybody and everything that has happened to them in the last week, including the lurid details of their friends last sexual encounter and a step by step anylasis of their feelings about it.
OK I know what that statement was, but c'mon people
It's like SOOO true.

[Peter Foot]

Americans just don't get SMS , they can't understand why people would type a slow message out, when you could just ring instead.

Absolutely. Interestingly alot of uses for SMS's are for communications which people are less comfortable talking face to face about or wish to do discretely, such as flirting, dumping girl/boyfriends even bullying and threatening via SMS is becoming common if you believe the news. Its a cultural difference, Americans just don't get discretion.

[Janak Parekh]

Its a cultural difference, Americans just don't get discretion.
Oh, come on. You're seriously generalizing here, and inaccurately beyond belief. Thanks for stereotyping all of us.

The simplest reason "Americans" don't use SMS is because only recently did inter-carrier SMS start working here. It's still not reliable yet. I know quite a few people on T-Mobile I SMS with... and would love to SMS with several Verizon people, and not all of them are techies... but it doesn't always work.

BTW: Anchordesk has been making inaccurate predictions for years now. Only a year ago or so were they railing mercilessly against Pocket PC. I literally stopped reading them 5 years ago, because I think their "content" is highly debatable.

--bdj

[Adam]

Americans just don't get SMS , they can't understand why people would type a slow message out, when you could just ring instead.

Absolutely. Interestingly alot of uses for SMS's are for communications which people are less comfortable talking face to face about or wish to do discretely, such as flirting, dumping girl/boyfriends even bullying and threatening via SMS is becoming common if you believe the news. Its a cultural difference, Americans just don't get discretion.

Some slightly less flame-baiting reasons :) also include:

Have you ever tried to have a conversation on a moving train (that is, of course, if you can find one)?

Have you tried using your phone to ring someone when in a noisy environment, or in a meeting, or whilst sitting with mates at the pub?

For a short conversation, SMS is vastly cheaper than phoning whilst abroad (hotel & roaming charges, that is). Though if it's going to go on, calling up is better.

Even with large Internet uptake there are plenty of places where you can't get wireless Internet access (ever tried getting GPRS outside your home network, e.g. abroad?). This was especially so a few years ago when mobile phone no.s exploded in Europe.

[Rirath]

Main reason I don't use SMS is just a cost issue. I tend to do just about all communicating with the outside world through the net. I barely even touch a telephone these days, and keep only a prepaid cell on hand in case it's needed.

[Adam]

As for all-in-one devices, there's plenty of places I'll happily take my phone, but not my PDA (nightclubs, gigs, all-dayer sessions, festivals, using outside Wood Green tube station, etc. etc.) so I can see that there is a at least one market for separate devices. The flexibilty issue of different devices is a good point to make.

Obviously there are people for whom the above issues are irrelevant, and they may well want the single device as it eliminates (reduces?) the hassle of getting them all working together.

Or did I mis-read the article (only had time to skim read).

[Adam]

Main reason I don't use SMS is just a cost issue....

Many providers in the UK are now offering free messages bundled into their monthly tariffs. The best one I've seen so far is O2's Online 200 which has 200 free mins (in xnet), 500 free SMS messages, 300 free WAP, 2MB free GPRS, all for £30 a month. Not bad, but I'd probably want to bolt some more GPRS on if it was my personal account (I'm stuck with what my company will give me on their corporate ornage plan).

[Peter Foot]

Its a cultural difference, Americans just don't get discretion.
Oh, come on. You're seriously generalizing here, and inaccurately beyond belief. Thanks for stereotyping all of us.


It was actually mean't to be lighthearted, apologies for missing out the emoticon, heres a couple to make up for it :lol: :wink:
I actually put the following in my original post:
"One reason why SMS is not a big thing in the US is probably due to the fact it has lagged behind Europe on mobile technology and interoperability between networks."

I think there is also the fact that in general American mobile users are less worried about the cost of voice calls than those in Europe. Many of these TXT junkies are pay-as-you-go users and therefore prefer to pay a fixed 10p for a message than start a potentially expensive call. One feature of SMS is that regardless of the fact it adds to network traffic there is generally no peak/off-peak differentiation on billing. Especially when you have voice costs viariable based on the network you are calling into and different definitions of peak and off-peak hours, SMS is always a given, and with many tariffs there are a number of free texts already on the account which can encourage further use.

The article was suggesting that SMS was an alternative to the internet, its a whole different method of communication. Likewise the Japanese market has iMode and picture messaging (which is now appearing in the UK in the form of MMS), up until recently we couldnt understand why they would want to send each other pictures of cats. When each of these new technologies has been rolled out its not been until good interoperability between networks was established that they have taken off, this will happen in the US eventually.

[scottmag]

I think there is a significant difference between Internet "penetration" and the percentage of the population that are Internet "users." What maters, with regard to SMS usage, is the percentage of the population with Internet access in their home, and the percentage using email for personal communication. I have read many times that in Japan people use SMS for communication because they are less likely to have Internet/email access from home. That 48% Internet penetration figure for Japan does not necessarily dispute that idea, as many of those people may technically have access at work but never use it. The same may or may not be true in northern Europe, the other hotbed of SMS activity. I suspect home Internet usage in Europe to be lower than in the U.S. because of per-minute local phone usage vs. flat-rate pricing.

There are also significant cultural differences in mobile phone usage between the U.S. and Europe. As has been mentioned already, the U.S. lagged behind Europe, and Japan, in development of wireless infrastructure and only recently has had inter-carrier SMS capability. In the meantime, we Americans have become comfortable using email and voice calls and never developed the taste for SMS. Also, in the U.S. one does not readily give out one's mobile number. With the calling-party pays system in Europe and the ubiquitous coverage, one is more likely to distribute a mobile number. And SMS is only useful if the other party's mobile number is known.

Add that to the large percentages of Americans who like to gab incessantly and those who consider a mobile phone an invasion of their private time and we are unlikely to see SMS ever gain much of a foothold in the U.S.

Scott

[Janak Parekh]

It was actually mean't to be lighthearted, apologies for missing out the emoticon, heres a couple to make up for it :lol: :wink:
No personal offense taken, I wasn't demanding an apology, it's just a little tiring to hear... I'm sure you get your share of stereotypes from Americans and you know what it feels like ;)

I actually put the following in my original post:
"One reason why SMS is not a big thing in the US is probably due to the fact it has lagged behind Europe on mobile technology and interoperability between networks."

I think there is also the fact that in general American mobile users are less worried about the cost of voice calls than those in Europe.
Absolutely true, voice minutes are very cheap here. One other reason I forgot to mention is that the US is much more of a driving country (which is a combination of cities being spaced too far apart to make mass transit practical for a lot of people and just bad mindsets in the majority) -- no one is going to do SMS while driving... I hope 8O

The article was suggesting that SMS was an alternative to the internet, its a whole different method of communication.
... and the fact that Anchordesk fails to mention the real reasons is yet another reason I don't read them anymore. :)

--bdj

[Janak Parekh]

Add that to the large percentages of Americans who like to gab incessantly and those who consider a mobile phone an invasion of their private time and we are unlikely to see SMS ever gain much of a foothold in the U.S.
Of course, both of these behaviors are changing. More and more people are willing to accept cell phones, while at the same time cell phone etiquette is becoming more prevalent. I think MMS may well take off here as a more subtle, yet efficient way to communicate... but it'll take time.

--bdj

[mookie123]

I think the reason SMS doesn't spread as wide in the US until very recently is because wireless phone doesn't inter operate, data cost is very expensive and only very few cheap phone can do SMS until recently.

....Plus now we got thing coming like Instant messaging that wil kill SMS for good. So yeah I don't think SMS will ever make it big in the US.

SMS had a lucky break in Europe, standardize network, cheaper/hipper phone for teenager,.....simply earlier start.

but hey.....

I want full internet on my phone dammit, none of this dinky cryptic alphabets. It would be the day if I can do IRC with voice command via wireless phone. (don't ask...why... :lol: )

[krisbrown]

I don't know, you try to start a flame, and everyone's being nice, maybe the biters aren't up yet 8)

By the way I get unlimited free text and WAP access (within reason) on my ex-Genie (short lived 02 spinoff) pre-pay, they have honoured the contract, but advised me not to take the proverbial.
You can get suprisingly clear colour images on even a small phone display over WAP/GPRS. There is great potential in it, but noone has taken it up or realised/seen what can be done.

[Janak Parekh]

I don't know, you try to start a flame, and everyone's being nice, maybe the biters aren't up yet 8)
It's Friday, that's why :D

Re images: I think you'll see MMS exploit it best. T-Mobile is advertising snap-on cameras heavily, and Sprint has also deployed it. Since digital cameras are generally huge here, it's only a matter of time before MMS (or, at least, mobile email) becomes prevalent.

--bdj

[Adam]

What maters, with regard to SMS usage, is the percentage of the population with Internet access in their home, and the percentage using email for personal communication.

The lack of Internet usage in Europe has been heavily to do with the non-flat rate phone calls over here (well, in the UK, certainly).

In Europe, SMS is used *despite* internet access. I have (and many mates have) Internet access (ADSL) at home and both via phone (email) and PDA (email, web, instant messaging), yet I/we still use SMS extensively. Two reasons: Most people I talk to are SMS and even with GPRS I can't get a guaranteed signal on the train.

Now both of those affected the high growth of SMS in the UK as when it all took off, GPRS wasn't available so the only non-continuous connection was SMS. People rarely use SMS to talk whilst at home - yet it is a lot more common in public.

SMS had a lucky break in Europe, standardize network, cheaper/hipper phone for teenager,.....simply earlier start.


I think you're right about it not taking off in the US because the infrastructure is only just being set-up and it now has to compete with more mature technologies. By having pretty full implementation for several years now, SMS has got the strong foothold that means that other technologies will take a long time to match it. I would disagree that it was "luckly" though. It was developed and pushed because mobile Internet was not available (cheaply).

I want full internet on my phone dammit,

Same here, but it will a while before I can do that on the train to and from work reliably (many tunnels and cuttings). I have to time my pre-work mail check to the gap between Potters Bar and Welwyn North as it is...about 5-20 minutes depending on whether the trains are running well... :?

[Adam]

I don't know, you try to start a flame, and everyone's being nice, maybe the biters aren't up yet 8)
It's Friday, that's why :D




Check when you get in from the pub.... :onfire:

[jweitzman]

Lots of good (better than Coursey's) reasons for low SMS in US. Another factor is the American teenager love affair with the telephone. Many households in the U.S. get a separate phone line for their teenagers because otherwise nobody would ever get through to the house. I suspect this is shifting over to getting your teenager their own cell phone, but the behavior doesn't change: American kids come home from school and continue conversations with their friends over the phone or using IM on their computers. I've seen my wife's teenage cousin conducting 5 or 6 simultaneous chat sessions while talking on the phone to another friend.

SMS is far too limiting for American teenagers!

JW

[JonnoB]

My phone does SMS, email, and IM. SMS costs money as part of the two-way paging price structure. IM and Email are lumped together in one flat price. I can use Yahoo IM, MSN IM, and AIM from my phone - why would I want to SMS?

[ThomasC22]

OK, two issues here...

The SMS Thing - I think that more than anything the lack of interoperability is to blame for it being a dead dog in the U.S. At the same time my friend and his girlfriend both have Cingular and they use it 12 times a day.

Multiple Devices - I don't see this being the case in the long run. The author here assumes the reason that users don't seem interested in say, digital camera phones, is because they simply don't like combined devices. The truth is, as far as I've found, is that users don't like digital camera phones because they don't like lousy digital cameras.

When someone can build a phone with a decent camera in it, that's easy to get your pictures off of, I think they'll pick up. They still won't replace digital cameras in general, but they'll provide a simpler service for pictures that aren't as important.

Integration is the future, and no just in handheld devices. It used to be that your surround sound system was just that, now you have integrated VCR, DVD and AM/FM Radio. People don't like multiple devices, they do like combined devices, but only if those devices function well.

[Janak Parekh]

SMS is far too limiting for American teenagers!
Nah, there's a time and place for everything. If SMS lets teens chat in class, believe me, they'll adopt it like crazy.

My phone does SMS, email, and IM. SMS costs money as part of the two-way paging price structure. IM and Email are lumped together in one flat price. I can use Yahoo IM, MSN IM, and AIM from my phone - why would I want to SMS?
Because, if it's implemented properly, it's easier. No "signing on". Just turn on your phone. No need to establish a GPRS or 1xRTT connection. Nothing.

Unless, of course, you use AIM over SMS, but then you're using SMS anyway :D

--bdj