PDA Sales Continue to Slip

[Jason Dunn]

<a href="http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,106869,tk,dn111202X,00.asp">http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,106869,tk,dn111202X,00.asp</a><br /><br />PDA sales are down a little from last year, but is 2.4% really significant enough to be overly concerned about? Personally, I don't think so - but it will be interesting to see over the next twelve months if people start buying smart phone devices (whether they be Symbian or Microsoft-based) instead of PDAs.<br /><br />"Worldwide shipments of personal digital assistants dropped 6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier due to weak economies in most parts of the world, research company IDC said Tuesday. A total of 2.44 million handhelds were shipped in the third quarter this year, compared with 2.59 million in the year-ago period. The number of shipments continued its sequential decline, down 7.1 percent from the second quarter, the third straight quarter-on-quarter drop, IDC said in a statement.<br /><br />Palm leads in market share with 33.8 percent, up from 29.1 percent. Sony and Toshiba, both relatively new market entrants, also showed strong market share increases. Sony is now the world's second-largest PDA vendor with 14.4 percent of the market, up from 3.6 percent, and Toshiba is number four with a 4.3 percent market share, according to IDC. No data on Toshiba in 2001 was given. Other vendors took a beating, notably Casio Computer and Hewlett-Packard, which saw their market share decline, respectively, from 7.1 percent to 4.1 percent and from 12.4 percent to 11.9 percent, IDC said."

[TomB]

Jason, my guess is that most hardcore power users have been looking forward to the XScale PPCs for over two years now. Some may have even held out when the last generation of Arm PPCs were released last year instead of XScale. And now that XScale is finally here, we find that these PPCs barely keep pace with the original 131MHz Casio E-100!

Given that, I don't think it is a surprise that the numbers are down. Further, I think now that Microsoft has revealed plans for zero optimizations for XScale through V7, it will be very interesting to see whether price beats performance for consumers or whether the whole PPC market fades away because of the giant steps backward OEMs have been forced to take on performance.

By the way at a recent TabletPC rollout, someone asked about future support and commitment to the product pointing to the current case of the PPC. The presenter explained that "the TabletPC is here to stay." By the way this person also mentioned $5 Billion is spent every year on R&D at Microsoft. Hmmm... given that kind of money and the indifference we have seen to the XScale PPC, I would say we are on our own and that it is a sure bet those numbers will continue to slide.

[mookie123]

5 Billion??!!! and all we got is this? No way..

The entire FYI 2003 National Science Foundation budget request is $5 billion. And they are responsible for anything from curing cancer, find out what the universe is all about, figuring out human genome and fixing the creaky planet earth.

5 billion...they can't even optimize a measily PocketPC?????!!!

The national science foundation can come up with design for several Petaflops computers with that much money.

gahh.......!

*getting down from soap box*

[ECOslin]

I guess I'm the reason for the slowdown. A couple of people asked me on advice of what PDA to buy and I told them to wait until next year when the new Viewsonic and Dell devices were coming out.

I guess they told some people and so on.

My bad,

Edward

[ThomasC22]

Well, keep in mind IT budgets are WAY down. This isn't bad at all, the drop should actually be higher in my opinion, the fact that it's only 2.4% is actually pretty good news in this economy.

But what interests me is this...


PDA sales are down a little from last year, but is 2.4% really significant enough to be overly concerned about? Personally, I don't think so - but it will be interesting to see over the next twelve months if people start buying smart phone devices (whether they be Symbian or Microsoft-based) instead of PDAs.


I deployed PDAs to our executive staff a little while ago and what I've found is that they rarely (ok, pretty much never) entered appointments in on the road. Further, one of the main concerns is getting e-mail. So, smart phones might be the answer.

The problem is that Cell. phone networks still don't reach as far as pager networks do and Blackberries still have keyboards...

[Janak Parekh]

Jason, my guess is that most hardcore power users have been looking forward to the XScale PPCs for over two years now.
Hardcore users hardly make up the market. The average end-user is looking at $. I think these numbers may shift when the new units come out to market. HP's units, OTOH, are just waay too expensive. So there's more than just XScale optimization (and, btw, let's not go through that discussion again, it's been argued on PPCThoughts at least 10 times ;))

--bdj

[krisbrown]

The PPC has to evolve or die, and when I say evolve I mean drastically, not just minor upgrades.
Very soon smartphones will be packed with so many useful features that most PPC owners will not be able to justify continuing to buy one.
Acceptability is part of it, a guy pulling out an Ipaq with camera attachment would be seen as a geek, but pull out a NOKIA 7650 to take a snap and people think it's cool (well that's the reaction in Europe anyway).
The new Nokia's have video recording, memory card slots, GPRS./BLUETOOTH/HSCSD ,are half the size of the smallest PPC and are half the price due to operator subsidies.
The 2003 phones will have 3G technology, high quality video/picture taking, long standby times, no loss of data on a flat battery, does anyone expect that of PPC's in 12 months?
http://www.allabouter6.com/ Symbian site
I realise the PPC will always be a more poerful device by it's very nature, but the gap is closing and functionality will be the winner.

[Merlion]

Given the worldwide economy's severe slump, I think the 2.4% isn't too bad. Plus the lacklustre performances of recent X-Scale devices, and the anticipation of the release of new low-priced devices, perhaps it's just a temporary thing. Come these next few months with all these new devices being released, there could be a resurgence of PPC sales. No? :?

[TomB]

BigDaddyJ you are right to a point, price will probably drive this market but as Krisbrown says, it has to be in conjunction with performance and features. And right now, I think the consumer has other options that are more compelling than the PPCs that are about to be released. Who knows though without a crystal ball? Maybe the holiday buying season will drive sales on the new 300MHz XScale PPCs!

The bottom line is that if the XScale PPCs lived up to the hype and street prices hit $250 this would be a killer rollout. At this point though, the most cost effective PDA bet is sticking with your old MS "supported" 206MHz PPCs. For those new to this, that means buying a refurb Toshiba e310 for $200 or on a used iPaq 3650 with PPC 2002 and CF sleeve for $125 to $200. Of course if you want to match the performance of the brand new PPCs and get an even better display, pick up a refurb Casio E-100 for $50!

[Wiggin]

The PPC has to evolve or die, and when I say evolve I mean drastically, not just minor upgrades.....
I realise the PPC will always be a more poerful device by it's very nature, but the gap is closing and functionality will be the winner.
Kris, agree with you on most (probably all, but don't want to be seen as too agreeable :wink: ) of your points. But!! An issue that I believe will continue to be a thorn in the side of smartphone offerings is screen size. Even if I could have every PPC feature, function & capability in my tiny little SonyEricsson T68i (which has a host of smart capabilities), I would never be able to enjoy it with a screen that measures 1" x 1.5". You just can't see enough at one time.
So what is the perfect screen size for a handheld device you might ask? Don't know, but the PPC devices are closer to the answer IMHO than smartphone devices. But flip it around and ask what's the perfect screen size for a mobile phone (regardless of how smart it is)? Again, don't know, but my T68i is pretty close to perfect for my use.
Seems to me, that for those in the world who want to carry only one device, the choice will be based upon what feature they use more... the phone, or the computer. Answer that question, and the resulting form factor is clear...then just select the device that fits your budget/feature requirements.

For moi, the PPCPE is the closest thing to a perfect solution, as I care 10 times more about the computer than about the phone.
I mean picture it if you will... a 2003 PPCPE device with 256+MB, an 800mhz chip, a battery life of 12 hours, Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, a Bluetooth ear phone to make calls without wires, an SDIO, CF, and USB slot, built in GPS app.... ahhhhh... I get goosebumps just thinking about it.
THAT WOULD BE HANDHELD HEAVEN!!! :multi: :bday: :rock on dude!: :way to go:

[Jason Dunn]

5 billion...they can't even optimize a measily PocketPC?????!!!

Uh, guys? Microsoft's R&D budget is for true R&D - unreleased, theoretical, "can we do this" projects. Not for shipping products that have development budgets. I can assure you the Pocket PC team's budget is a small fraction of that number...a VERY small fraction. :lol:

[TomB]

Jason, the PPC is Microsoft's specification, OS, GUI and program bundle so they must be making a pretty nice licensing fee on each unit sold. Considering the number of PPCs out there we are talking about a pretty slick yearly income don't you think? So even without access to R&D funds it would seem we might expect a little more from the Mobility Division in terms of XScale PPCs. I know it's not policy and on and on - but it seems like the carrot of increased performance and better multimedia has been dancing on the end of the Microsoft's PDA stick now for three years. It will be interesting to see what the mood is at this year's PPC Party in Las Vegas. Are people going to be excited about the new slower PPCs or is poor Derek Brown going to be tarred and feathered?

[mookie123]

gawd, still... $5billion dollar research money?

they ought to have an automatic system so each Operating System is optimized for each individual on the planet, nevermind single chip!.

..........FIVE BILLION...!!

I wonder what is NSF computing research budget. mm...

[Jason Dunn]

Jason, the PPC is Microsoft's specification, OS, GUI and program bundle so they must be making a pretty nice licensing fee on each unit sold.

It's about $8 or so. Let's say, what, perhaps 2 million Pocket PCs sold each year (I'm just guessing here) - that's about 16 million dollars total. Not a lot of money once you stop and think about it. :?

I'm definitely NOT saying that the speed at which Microsoft is improving the OS is "ok", because I feel they're very, very slow at fixing things. But I didn't think it was fair for someone to think there was a 5 billion dollar budget behing the Pocket PC OS. :lol: