Why you should wait for the Dell Pocket PC

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/0,14179,2882305,00.html">http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/0,14179,2882305,00.html</a><br /><br />Most journalists shy away from recommending a product that isn't here yet, as do I. But waiting on Dell to do something is like waiting for the microwave to ding. You know it is going to happen. The article goes on to tell you how Dell gets it money from you well before it pays for anything. It is one of the few company in the world that does this.<br /><br />The benefit to you is Dell can drive the price down. In 2-3 months you should be able to buy a Pocket PC with a bit more power than the original iPAQ 3600, with integrated expansion slots, for about half the original selling price of the iPAQ. HP is forced to follow suit with the iPAQ 2200 and I'd wager that either the ViewSonic release date was stepped up or the price stepped down (or both) to be competitive with the Dell. Good for all PDA enthusiasts. Want a device with more power? One with some integrated wireless capabilities? Well, it is going to be hard for OEMs to charge double or more for these devices. This will drive the prices down across the board. The trick is to sell enough volume that you make the same amount of money on more units. Can Dell pull this off? Is grass green? Thanks to Steven Cedrone for the link.

[st63z]

I like these kinds of columns from them... insightful, sometimes unconventional viewpoints. But those user comments are invariably (invariably) depressing and often completely missing the point. Petty complaints and snide remarks that can't seem to see the big picture...

[GadgetDave]

But those user comments are invariably (invariably) depressing and often completely missing the point. Petty complaints and snide remarks that can't seem to see the big picture...

I've almost stopped reading the user comments... 8O

However, I agree with the column and Ed's comments. Dell will push the price down, or they won't stay in the market. And while I don't expect anything spectacular from them, it will be a solid product with much of the functionality.

[Ravenswing]

It's not like HP/Compaq can't afford the margin drop. Last I heard they made more money on an iPAQ Pocket PC sale than they did on any of their desktop computers. 8O

[mookie123]

I think the column is nonsense in context of short term single purchase. Driving down 10-20% price is very hard in competitive category and that translate to only about $30-50.

Is it worth it to wait 6-12 months for $40 price reduction?

I think the the better reason to wait is if features that you need currently is not available, kludgy or too expensive. Eg. integrated GPRS, or video editing capability.

The next big manufacturing cost reduction will be when new MPU, video, and wireless chips comes out, along with display and battery. Take a look at Palm's m130, that's how far ~$100 manufacturing can go for color PDA, almost impossible to do with PPC spec. So I doubt price for that $299 Dell will suddenly drop $100-200 dollar within 3 months unless somebody is doling out big subsidy or coupons.

[Ed Hansberry]

I like these kinds of columns from them... insightful, sometimes unconventional viewpoints. But those user comments are invariably (invariably) depressing and often completely missing the point. Petty complaints and snide remarks that can't seem to see the big picture...
What comments did I make that were petty or snide? :?

[Steven Cedrone]

I like these kinds of columns from them... insightful, sometimes unconventional viewpoints. But those user comments are invariably (invariably) depressing and often completely missing the point. Petty complaints and snide remarks that can't seem to see the big picture...
What comments did I make that were petty or snide? :?

At the bottom of the article (On the ZDNet site) there is an area for people to add their comments. Those are the petty and snide remarks st63z is referring to...

Steve

[fyiguy]

From the looks of the Dell 'Clemente' PocketPC,(go here (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3879) for the post with sneak peak pictures) it will turn some heads and I am sure 'Steve' will be pushing this version of the PocketPC into the hands of more consumers, which is a good thing for the entire PocketPC Market.

I am sure Dell will introduce their version at a great introductory price in the $299 range as speculated, which the other manufacturer's are and will follow suit.(Dell may experience some backlash as well, from manufacturers pulling their products from their website, like we haven't seen this before i.e. printers...). The best thing is that the consumer now has several choices to get a PocketPC that is more taylored to their needs with several options and features available to them than ever before.

It seems that the evolution of the PocketPC is changing more rapidly with each version and is reaching a pricepoint where it will begin to dominate the PDA market and for the average consumer to justify in its purchase, even in these tough economic times.

Gotta love Darwinism when applied to technology...

:D

[Ed Hansberry]

At the bottom of the article (On the ZDNet site) there is an area for people to add their comments. Those are the petty and snide remarks st63z is referring to...

Ahhhh. Sorry 'bout that. :oops:

That "feature" became so useless to me years ago I had totally forgotten it was there.

[st63z]

My bad, I should be more clear...

[AZMark]

Dell get's the price down by doing stock parts, JIT inventory, cash upfront from the customer. Right? Am I missing something?

OK, now how does this apply to Pocket PC's? It's not like they can order 10,000 Pocket PC cases then use newer motherboards or larger memory when it becomes available. They get to order from Taiwan then same way every one else does. The only way to get a better price is to order more from HTC or like OEM.

The only reason they are getting in, is because of their Education ties, well developed and tested market, and their ability to leach off of Compaq and others for quantity discounts. People like to touch their PDA's before they buy, and I see Dell ending up with a huge inventory of PPC's, droping the price to next to nothing blowing them out, then getting out of the market.

[Foo Fighter]

I don't agree with Berlind's conclusion. Why wait? Dell's PDA will certainly offer a good value, but I seriously doubt it's going to be a barn burner. Dell is not an innovator, they are a follower. The only thing innovative about Dell is its business model and insanely efficient manufacturing infrastructure. Still, I can't wait to see this product. I just hope Dell gives it a decent name instead of the usual unimaginative naming scheme that has plagued it's portable products...Inspiron, Latitude. :roll:

...and I am sure 'Steve' will be pushing this version of the PocketPC into the hands of more consumers, which is a good thing for the entire PocketPC Market.

I should hope so. So far Microsoft hasn't done jack squat to promote or market PPC to consumers. At times I've often wondered just how committed MS really is to the PPC platform. Pocket PC has seen negative growth over the past few months as PalmOS has taken back some its lost marketshare. I wonder is PPC is losing momentum?

It seems that the evolution of the PocketPC is changing more rapidly with each version

I get the opposite impression. Microsoft always seems to fight this battle with one hand tied behind its back. They never put the full force of their resource might behind the platform. For example, Microsoft could christen the PPC as the official Xbox Mobile platform. Create a stripped down version of DirectX and work with game developers to create a set of standards and tools to offer portable games like the recent Tomb Raider port for PPC.

Microsoft should promote PPC as a lifestyle device. To borrow a page from Apple's marketing..."Your life, to go!". The PPC is everything the iPod hopes to achieve. Your music, your data, your life..in the palm of your hand. With you wherever you go.

...and is reaching a pricepoint where it will begin to dominate the PDA market

I doubt Microsoft is ever going to dominate the market. The best that can happen is for parity to be reached. Frankly, I consider this Microsoft's last gamble. If these low costs PPCs don't move in volume and quickly grab radically significant marketshare...then nothing ever will. Microsoft's licensees aren't going to keep playing this game forever unless there is victory in sight.

[fyiguy]

,Microsoft could christen the PPC as the official Xbox Mobile platform.

I agree that there should be a move into the portable gaming industry, since it is one industry that always continues to do well.-the trade group for the U.S. computer and video game industry grew 7.9 percent year-on-year to $6.35 billion, While most analysts had predicted flat year-on-year sales of computer and video games in 2001, especially after the September terrorist attacks, the industry defied these forecasts to post solid year-on-year revenue increases,

It would be nice to see a portable gaming solution "addon" to the PocketPC complete with controller(s) or better yet a "BlueTooth" wireless controller(s) and call it Pocket X-Box or somthing like what Sony is planning to do with it's Vaio called the PocketStation

http://www.pocketpctools.com/images/news/cliegear.jpg

I had heard about a year ago that the Atmel Corp. had the design win for the PocketStation with a single-chip controller that includes the Thumb core(The ARM7TDMI Thumb processor), flash memory, RAM, an LCD controller, D/A converter and a bidirectional infrared interface for Sony about a year ago.

The SCPH-4000 PocketStation, is described as a miniature personal digital assistant and as a companion to the popular Sony Playstation console, will allow games software to be downloaded from the Playstation and played on the move. The PocketStation, which includes a miniature loudspeaker, will also function as a memory card to enhance the functionality of the Playstation console. Also planned was a facility to link up to the web via a mobile phone. We will just to have to wait and see...

According to the analysts( who are never wrong cough, cough, cough) the next "big thing" is mobile gaming ... It would be really cool if MS decided to develop something like this or maybe they already are... ;)

[Ed Hansberry]

Dell get's the price down by doing stock parts, JIT inventory, cash upfront from the customer. Right? Am I missing something?

OK, now how does this apply to Pocket PC's? It's not like they can order 10,000 Pocket PC cases then use newer motherboards or larger memory when it becomes available. They get to order from Taiwan then same way every one else does. The only way to get a better price is to order more from HTC or like OEM.

Dell doesn't build their laptops - not the Latitude line anyway. You place an order, it is sent to Hong Kong, it is built, shipped overnight international to Dell, they add the books and whatnot to the package and ship it to you by the specified shipping method. They have your money (unless you are a customer with credit) and pay their vendors in 30/60 days.

I am sure it won't be that clean for PDAs but they could issue a PO for 100,000 units for example and agree to pay within X days of releasing them. They could then order 500 per day or whatever the demand was. They have your money and pay Asia in 30/60 days. :)

[mookie123]

The next big thing in PDA.

-- Mini USB (fully complied with USB 2.0)

imagine that, universal standard plug instead of sledge, cradle, special plug, or alien dongle. The PDA will become a fully able to talk to any peripheral that support the plug.

whichever PDA that fully support this will be the champ of next round.

[don dre]

I like your dream mookie :D

[gmelfissg]

Sir,

Why don't you believe in DELL, i have two laptops from them (inpririon) and they all work correctly. Seems to be that waiting for the DELL pocket pc make sense because if it is $299, it will launch POCKET PC on the cosumer level down from the geek level. Sorry about that but sky high price of 500$ and more pda device doesn't make any sense in tha economy we are in now.

It's time to remove people like compaq from their high horse of making +$200 on each pocket pc they sell and then make you believe you're buying true value. No device more than $500 is worth paying, specially since innovation arrives quickly and good deal are now offers on pocket pc (e740 at $414, e310 at 199$, audiovox at $299).

So yes it is time to pay less to get more and stop bulies like compaq to give nothing for your money but trouble.

[AZMark]

Dell could cut a deal to get the price down, this is true. But, obviously so can Viewsonic. Dell will not stay in any market they can not have a major market share in.

Can anyone say Everex, Uniden, Casio even.

Microsoft has played this game before, marketing the OS to way too many manufactures. In PC's it worked due to the numbers, but I'm not sure the numbers are quite there for the Pocket market at present.

One of the reasons that MS will have such a hard time overtaking Palm is the fact that there is not one major hardware player willing to dedicate the marketing muscle to promote the platform. The more dilluted the market gets the less willing they will be. I'm not sure trading Casio, for Dell and Viewsonic is a good thing.

[Ed Hansberry]

Dell could cut a deal to get the price down, this is true. But, obviously so can Viewsonic.
Can they? Dell is the world's best at this, bar none. HP couldn't do it. Compaq couldn't do it. Gateway couldn't do it. Dell is the only multinational company in the WORLD that has a significant negative days of dollars in inventory because they get receipts from customers well before they pay suppliers.

Doesn't mean they will repeat this with PDAs. But if anyone can, it will be Dell.

[mookie123]

One of the reasons that MS will have such a hard time overtaking Palm is the fact that there is not one major hardware player willing to dedicate the marketing muscle to promote the platform. The more dilluted the market gets the less willing they will be. I'm not sure trading Casio, for Dell and Viewsonic is a good thing.

PDA is just like any other computer product since the beginning of time. It has to reach critical mass so that developing software and designing new hardware actually worthwhile. Once critical mass is reach, the demand will be self feeding provided the platform is open and flexible enough.

Intel obviously committed, already has clear road map to next year. Several big taiwanese OEM also devoting manufacturing lines for PPC. So that alone signify long term trend.

What's wrong with trading philips to casio, to dell, Toshiba, and HP? did you see the trend? The computer giants are taking PDA seriously and putting their muscle behind it instead of like in the beginning where it was more made up of consumer electronic companies.

Palm obviously is not making such progress. Their product is sliding to lower and lower price niche, while the new Tungsten is untested. On top of that Sony are eating them for lunch on the consumer market arena. Pretty soon Palm will consist of two type of products, electronic organizer or Sony's entertainment PDA. Palm didn't put enough effort to develop new feature that will grab new market, specially enterprise.

maybe Palm is the one need to kill Sony license to save their own product line.

[fmcpherson]

I hope we aren't all getting carried away here. I have the impression that Dell will sell two models, and I fear the pics we are seeing are for the more expensive model. I would be shocked if they offerred all those features for $299, but I am very willing to be shocked.

[PPCRules]

maybe Palm is the one need to kill Sony license to save their own product line.
Maybe they'd like to be able to, but I believe they realize they can't do it.

Sony Invests $20 Million in Palm Software Unit
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=569&ncid=738&e=4&u=/nm/20021008/tc_nm/tech_palm_sony_dc

Just one step before they complete the acquisition, then there will be no more 'Palm' product line.

[Gremmie]

Alright, finally found the link, Dell may not lead in hardware innovation, but they do lead in competitive innovation, they have a history of sparking price wars. But here is a link the shows an insight of Dell's business plan and aggressive look for cheap wholesale...
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/54/26001.html

In my opinion, hybred PDA's will be the next wave, as we see already (e.g. O2, Toshiba, etc). The regular PDA's will have serious competition because now Palm is aggressivly competiting against Palm since they are buying very similar hardware for their PDA's.

[Timothy Rapson]

. So I doubt price for that $299 Dell will suddenly drop $100-200 dollar within 3 months unless somebody is doling out big subsidy or coupons.


What a difference 12 hours makes :oops:

[mookie123]

What a difference 12 hours makes :oops:

lol. yes i know. I'll start eating my hat too.

[Foo Fighter]

What a difference 12 hours makes :oops:

No kidding. If only I could take back that last post... :oops:

[Liquidrice]

I was wondering why I couldn't find any pocketPCs at Dell the other day. They've pretty much sold all and hasn't really stocked anything. I really do hope dell will have a kick ass design along with excellent function. (Dell products can be had typically at 15% off the regular prices during promotions)