Apple PDA plans nearing no chance at all?

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.osopinion.com/perl/story/19461.html">http://www.osopinion.com/perl/story/19461.html</a><br /><br />"Apple's pioneering PDA, Newton, failed to take off a decade ago, largely because it was a clunky, expensive device that the public was not ready for. Now, with the market saturated with PDAs and smartphones, Apple may not be ready to try again."<br /><br />Well, PDA, yes. But saturated smartphone market? The only market saturated with smartphones is the media's little world where they have devices to play with. The one here in the real world has sparce choices for a true smartphone device. Microsoft's smartphone has yet to launch and the P800 isn't out yet from Sony-Ericsson either. Everything else is a phone with a full PDA crammed in it, but I digress.<br /><br />"Rumors persist that Apple has a PDA up its sleeve. Aberdeen Group analyst Isaac Ro points to the iPod, along with Apple's new iSynch "Mac to mobile" Bluetooth platform, as evidence the company is experimenting with PDA functionality. "The iPod has the basic technology to be a PDA, with limited PIM (personal information management) data applications built into a wireless device," he said. "But it is not clear that Apple would bring a PDA into the market."<br /><br />Think they will? Think an iPDA is in the cards for Apple? Personally I don't. The market is saturated, and while they might do an iPOD with basic PDA functionality, that would be too big to appeal to mainstream PDA users. I think the only market left for Apple to seriously consider is the smartphone market, and unless they are already 2 years into developing a viable product, they may be too late for that. Thanks to Foo Fighter for the link.

[kyoukoku]

Well if they do bring one out they sure as heck can't call it an 'iPaq' coz Compaq beat them to it by a few years! :wink: :D

kyoukoku

[Reluctant Luddite]

But if voice-recognition technology finally arrives*, the form-factor and small screen of the current iPod should be more than adequate for notes, tasks, contact information, even composing e-mail. That'd be quite a device, and I'd buy one in a heartbeat.

I'm assuming Ed's comment about the iPod being too big to appeal to mainstream PDA users is if the iPod had a much larger screen, a stylus, etc., as it's pretty compact as is.

*RSN. :wink:

PS. Oh, and the voice recognition has to run on an embedded processor with plenty of oomph but minimal heat. Again, RSN :wink:

[Paragon]

From a philosophical standpoint it has to be a very difficult step for Apple to make. Even the most diehard PC, or Pocket PC fan I think, if not openly at least secretly think that when Apple does get it right they really do get it right. So, I think many of us are setting the bar fairly high for them to clear if they do come out with a PDA. We expect Apple to come out with something very different from the offerings that are out there now. Something ground breaking or at least outside the box. We expect them to be different

I wonder if that is what is holding them back. They either can't come up with anything earth shattering or they are afraid that they will fail to meet the expectations set for them.

Does anyone else agree with that? Or am I the only one who thinks that way?

Dave

[Jason Dunn]

Apple faces a couple of significant hurdles that may be scaring them away:

1) Everything they do is more expensive than everyone else. It's also very high quality, but if their PDA costs $1000, how many will they really sell? Sure, the Mac-faithful would buy it, but can they survive on just that?

2) Developers! You can have a killer PDA, but if you don't have a strong pool of developers, you're dead. Let's say they slap OS X on it - now what? How many developers are out there for OS X, and how many of them will want to make PDA software?

Still, it's something I'd like to see. If nothing else it might make the OEMs put more care into the physical design of their units.

[Paragon]

I think your second point is a very strong one Jason. Without software developers you are dead in the water. If you look at Microsoft based PDAs they didn't show any signs of taking off until Pocket PCs came along and Microsoft made it easy for developers to get on board. I know myself that Pocket PCs were on the market for 4-5 months before I switched from Palm. I only did this because I saw the signs that developers were getting "on side" If I hadn't seen it I would still be using a Palm....eeeeewwww &lt;spit> I can't believe I said that :D

What are the advantages of them making a PDA? Are they going to make great amounts of money off them? Doubtful. Are they going to sell more desktop computers if they do? Doubtful. I think the risks for them aren't worth what little, if any rewards there maybe. At least in todays picture. Things may change in the future.

Dave

[Jonathon Watkins]

Still, it's something I'd like to see. If nothing else it might make the OEMs put more care into the physical design of their units.
Totally agree - it would be nice for them to introduce a PDA that very reason. Raise the bar, then watch others clear it and eat their lunch. :wink: Their hardware is generally very nice (when it's not sickeningly cute) and it would be good if they really could 'think' different in the PDA area. Maybe they can't.......

[Rob Alexander]

Apple faces a couple of significant hurdles that may be scaring them away:

I think there's an additional issue as well. The Newton was a point of serious contention between Jobs and Scully, and was essentially Scully's baby. Killing the Newton was one of the first things Jobs did when he took control of the company again, and I don't see him being very receptive to doing an about face and effectively "admitting" that Scully was right (about there being a market for this concept). That's not to say this is an insurmountable barrier, but I would imagine the case in favor of a PDA would have to be pretty overwhelming before Jobs would backtrack on that one.

[TQBrady]

What are the advantages of them making a PDA? Are they going to make great amounts of money off them? Doubtful. Are they going to sell more desktop computers if they do? Doubtful. I think the risks for them aren't worth what little, if any rewards there maybe. At least in todays picture. Things may change in the future.

Couldn't the same have been said about the iPod before it was released? Fact is, there were a great many people who bought a Mac desktop or laptop simply because they wanted to use an iPod. Personally I could never spend that amount of money so frivalously, but maybe I am reading this wrong. Perhaps the iPod was the least straw for a lot of those people - as in they had been sitting on the fence for a while, wondering if they should buy a Mac. Who knows. The point is, it worked. I don't remember the stats, but there were enough people who bought Macs because the iPod existed to make it interesting, enough Mac users that bought iPods, and, finally, enough Windows and Linux users that bought iPods and hacked software together to use them to make it profitable. Why couldn't that happen with an Apple PDA?

Here's the facts. Apple has one of the strongest R&D teams out there. They always have four or five projects going, 3 of which may never become public knowledge. Apple is DEFINITELY warming up to PDAs, with software releases and announcements, and features added to the iPod. They may release a PDA; they may not. It will all depend on whether they come up with a good design. Let's not forget: the first digital camera ever released had an Apple logo on it, and Apple not longer makes digital cameras. They support them heavily(with apps like iPhoto), but no one spreads rumors about them releasing a new digital camera. They may take the same route with PDAs.

Or maybe I am an idiot. That's alwaysan alternative.

[Paragon]

TQBrady

I understand what you are saying, and I can agree with a great deal of it, BUT I have a hard time believing that Apple could pay the utility bill for long on the money raised from people buying a new Mac because of the iPod. Sure there may have been a few that were going to anyway, and it knocked them off the fence. I just can't believe it would be that many.

dave

[TQBrady]

TQBrady

I understand what you are saying, and I can agree with a great deal of it, BUT I have a hard time believing that Apple could pay the utility bill for long on the money raised from people buying a new Mac because of the iPod. Sure there may have been a few that were going to anyway, and it knocked them off the fence. I just can't believe it would be that many.

I agree that the number of people who bought a Mac just to use an iPod is probably not a large number. What I am saying is that that number was large enough to make it worthwhile, in addition to the number of Mac owners and PC owners(running Windows or Linux) who were willing to hack something out.

[wiredguy]

2) Developers! You can have a killer PDA, but if you don't have a strong pool of developers, you're dead. Let's say they slap OS X on it - now what? How many developers are out there for OS X, and how many of them will want to make PDA software?

Still, it's something I'd like to see. If nothing else it might make the OEMs put more care into the physical design of their units.

OS X is Unix based, and therefore there would be many developers ready to create applications for a mobile version of OS X. Especially because creating mobile applications is typically easier than desktop apps... so even lazy developers might throw something simple together :).

Yes, it's me... defending Apple again. Anyone that thinks Microsoft is innovative, go see what Apple is doing with Jaguar, iCAL, and other apps. iCAL is truely revolutionary... light years ahead of MS Outlook for sharing calendars.

As much as I like my Pocket PCs... I can only imagine how effective they would be if Apple put them together: ActiveSync would work for everybody, the OS wouldn't crash, data could by synced over firewire, etc...

[TQBrady]

data could by synced over firewire, etc...

MAN that would be great! 400 mbps data transfer anyone? INSTANTANEOUS sync' anyone?

[Jason Dunn]

OS X is Unix based, and therefore there would be many developers ready to create applications for a mobile version of OS X. Especially because creating mobile applications is typically easier than desktop apps... so even lazy developers might throw something simple together :).

Totally! Look at all those apps that the Linux-based Sharp has!

:sleeping:

[jdhill]

Totally! Look at all those apps that the Linux-based Sharp has!
:sleeping:
Jason, I detect a hint of sarcasm there !!! :wink:

[Jason Dunn]

Jason, I detect a hint of sarcasm there !!! :wink:

MOI?? No, never. :lol:

[klinux]

If Apple does make a PDA, my bold prediction is that will spell the death of Palm.

[Jason Dunn]

If Apple does make a PDA, my bold prediction is that will spell the death of Palm.

Hmm....I have a hard time seeing that. Everything Apple does it high-quality, but more expensive. Apple could not possibly compete in the sub-$200 PDA space.

[TQBrady]

Hmm....I have a hard time seeing that. Everything Apple does it high-quality, but more expensive. Apple could not possibly compete in the sub-$200 PDA space.

Well, consider this: Pocket PC has come a long way in the market. The iPaq is the single best-selling handheld, right(I am nearly 100% positive I read that stat in the last month). Nearly everyone knows that Pocket PCs are better . . . who is still buying Palms? Maybe those Mac people who want to be able to sync' with their Macs? I think that's what KLinux meant . . . if those Mac users have an Apple-branded handheld to buy they won't buy Palms - and that might be a big enough market to really upset Palm.

Don't forget . . . Apple does not represent 5% of the market - it represents 5% of the NEW machines purchased in RETAIL stores(and Apples are only available in a very few retail stores). If you were to inventory every desktop in the US, you would find that more like 20-25% of them would be Apples.

[klinux]

If Apple does make a PDA, my bold prediction is that will spell the death of Palm.

Hmm....I have a hard time seeing that. Everything Apple does it high-quality, but more expensive. Apple could not possibly compete in the sub-$200 PDA space.

Well, one could argue that two years ago Pocket PC was in the same position i.e higher quality and a more expensive alternative to Palm. It succeeded, didn't it?

PalmOS is already nearing the end of its functionality life/features, IMO. Palm hardware has really lacked innovation for a long time i.e. see its competitors like Sony, Blackberry, Danger, etc. I believe on the OS side, only a *nix based OS stands a chance to Windows CE. On the hardware side, I can imagine Apple can come up with something innovative. This is what I mean by if Apple creates a PDA, Palm will be over (be bought by Sony?).

In my ideal but highly unlikely scenario, Apple will join forces with Sharp and make a Mac-BSD-Unix-whatever based PDA that can sync with Windows, Linux, and Mac using XML. The soon-to-be released iSync also has Bluetooth built-in as well.

However, Steve Jobs has repeatedly poo-pooed the thought of creating a PDA. We'll see have to revisit this in six months or so.

[Jonathon Watkins]

Don't forget . . . Apple does not represent 5% of the market - it represents 5% of the NEW machines purchased in RETAIL stores(and Apples are only available in a very few retail stores). If you were to inventory every desktop in the US, you would find that more like 20-25% of them would be Apples.

TQBrady, what are you smoking under your big, fat hat? :wink: How do you get to 25%????? Are PCs so disposable and Apples so timeless that people will have their Apple Classic or LC still going after all these years? :silly:

Apple never hit more than 10% of the market and never will their pricing strategy and arrogant elitist philosophy. :splat:

Who do you know that owns and uses an Apple? I know one person – and that’s because I sold it to him years ago, and I know a lot of people (and end up doing PC tech support for most of them :wink: :roll: ).

Apples simply aren’t as widespread as you say.

[TQBrady]

TQBrady, what are you smoking under your big, fat hat? :wink: How do you get to 25%????? Are PCs so disposable and Apples so timeless that people will have their Apple Classic or LC still going after all these years? :silly:

Nothing under my hat, nothing up my sleeve, and nothing in the ash tray in my car but change. YES - Apples ARE that timeless. There are COUNTLESS web sites devoted to upgrade tips for your "older macs." Try lowendmac.com for one. Yes, PCs ARE that disposable. I have watched FAR too many people throw out a PC that was "obsolete," but try and pull a 6-year-old mac from its owners cold, dead hands. The fact is Macs are better made, and, therefor, you don't HAVE to buy a new one every 1-2 years. You can put a G4 1 GHz processor right now into a machine that shipped with a G3 300 MHz processor. You can put a G4 550 MHz into a machine that originally shipped with a 70 MHz processor. Can you put a P4 into a P3 motherboard? No. Can you put a P4 into a P1 motherboard? Hell no. That's better design, and it means longer lasting computers with better staying power.

Apple never hit more than 10% of the market and never will their pricing strategy and arrogant elitist philosophy. :splat:

We can throw numbers at each other all day long but the point is this: no one really knows. The studies have been skewed - most of them measure sales in places like Best Buy and Circuit City - which don't even SELL Macintosh systems. And before you point out that even an accurate measure would be WELL below a "large portion" of the market let me ask you this, "Should Mercedes Benz close up shop because their numbers are so low?"

Who do you know that owns and uses an Apple? I know one person – and that’s because I sold it to him years ago, and I know a lot of people (and end up doing PC tech support for most of them :wink: :roll: ).

Well, to be completely honest, not that many. I can think of about 7 friends that own Macs, 3 of which have really old Macs and new PCs, 4 of which have really old PCs and new Macs. That's the honest truth. Of course, I know LOTS more people who own PCs. By the way, I am the network admin/sys admin/web master where I work. I am enlisted almost weekly by some friend with a PC to repair/replace something(software half the time, of course). I know exactly what you mean. I must admit, my Mac friends never call me except to ask about upgrades.

Apples simply aren’t as widespread as you say.

Well, I am taking as wild a guess as you are as to the truth of Apple's market.

By the way . . . I'm not trying to convert anyone. I am writing this on my AMD 1800+ at home(rebuilt inside a NeXT Cube, though :wink: ). In a few minutes I will hit my PowerBook to get some writing done(for http://www.geek.com, by the way).