Market share predictions through 2008

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/f_headline.cgi?bw.090902/222520318">http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/f_headline.cgi?bw.090902/222520318</a><br /><br />This projection takes the current leaders - PalmOS, WinCE/PPC, Symbian and Linux and projects both worldwide and USA market share through 2008. "Palm has been the leading PDA platform the last five years, but it is seeing increasing competition from Pocket PC, Symbian and Linux. With current trends Palm will lose its worldwide lead in 2004, but will retain U.S. leadership until 2008. The long-term winner depends on which of the major PC, electronics and cell phone manufacturers adopt which PDA platform. Sony is the only major company that is supporting Palm and Sony's success is primarily in the U.S. Palm sorely needs additional allies in international markets such as China and Europe."<br /><br />I hear that alot - Sony is the PalmOS salvation. Do you really think they and they alone have that much clout? Do you think Palm needs another big hitter, perhaps Philips?<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2002/20020914-futureworldshare.gif" /><br /><br />"The Palm OS lead is evaporating because the major PC companies are adopting the Pocket PC platform and Palm is running out of major companies that have the worldwide marketing clout to reverse this trend," says Dr. Egil Juliussen, the author of the report. "Palm will need several major electronics companies to adopt the Palm OS in the next year to have any chance of retaining its lead."<br /><br />The USA market share report is in the comments.&lt;!><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2002/20020914-futureusashare.gif" /><br />As the report said, Palm retains its lead in the US through 2008. What I find interesting is that WinCE/PPC is seen as a global leader. About 71% of the Microsoft OS's volumes are seen from outside of the US whereas Palm is 54% dependant on the US market.

[Timothy Rapson]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.


I want to see what these guys predicted 6 years ago that came true.

[DaleReeck]

I have to say, I see a lot of this on PocketPC sites. That is, constant references to market share and such. Sometimes it seems like we have to make ourselves constantly feel better by analyzing who's got the biggest market share and trying to prove that Palm is always sinking and WinCE is always growing.

If PocketPC is the better platform (which I think it is for most situations and uses), then it will grow and probably eventually overtake Palm and other platforms. But to constantly analyze that to the point of obsession almost looks, well, desperate and insecure.

[Ed Hansberry]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.


I want to see what these guys predicted 6 years ago that came true.
Remember 2 years ago the prediction that Pocket PC/WinCE would surpass Palm by 2005 worldwide? Well, that seems to have been conservative. This is showing world wide Pocket PC volumes are increasing faster than originally anticipated.

[Ed Hansberry]

I have to say, I see a lot of this on PocketPC sites.
Don't visit Palm sites much do you? :roll:

[fundmgr90210]

I have to say, I see a lot of this on PocketPC sites. That is, constant references to market share and such. Sometimes it seems like we have to make ourselves constantly feel better by analyzing who's got the biggest market share and trying to prove that Palm is always sinking and WinCE is always growing.

If PocketPC is the better platform (which I think it is for most situations and uses), then it will grow and probably eventually overtake Palm and other platforms. But to constantly analyze that to the point of obsession almost looks, well, desperate and insecure.

Yes, but you can't necessarily blame Ed, he's feeling a little cornered and under seige lately. :wink:

Even he would normally refrain from posting this consulting group crap, but he's got his reasons lately. Look down the front page and it should all come clear.

[Will T Smith]

Palm has Sony support, nuff said. Sony has the marketing, product diversity, and persistance to get any platform to survive or thrive.

One need only look at Sony's dogged, unwaivering support for BetaMax, MiniDisc and Memory stick to see that they can move product even if it losing the battle.

Beyond that, Palm has Handspring, and a couple of major convergence device vendors. Not to mention, Palm has support on Mac, Windows and Linux. It's fairly formidable.

In the end, I really see Palm and PocketPC going in different directions. As long as Palm products can deliver at pricepoint $200 LESS than PocketPC, they'll be ok.

[st63z]

I have to say, I see a lot of this on PocketPC sites.
Don't visit Palm sites much do you? :roll:

I don't really visit Palm-only sites, though not so much by conscious intention. It's PPC-centric and general PDA sites for me (yes, I'm staying away from the "neutral" hot-button word).

So I prefer PPC and obviously have an invested bias in it, but I'm not anti-Palm (as I believe most people aren't either). Comparisons on the relative merits of specific devices do interest me (though not so much nowadays), but "badwill" sentiments against the companies themselves never do (I'm not purposely trying to take some moral high ground, I'm just plain not interested to jump into such frays). But I admit that financial analyses can be interesting in and of themselves when you consider the different POV's.

What's weird though, when I read anti-PPC spins from the other camp, they generally never bother me and don't prompt me into action. BUT, the recent barrage of anti-Palm sentiments here have given me an uneasy feeling. I can't really explain it, don't even know why I'm posting this, bored insomnia I guess...

[PlayAgain?]

There is no way that Symbian will outsell Palm in the PDA market.

Why? Because there are no Symbian PDAs being made so I'd like to see where these figures are coming from. If these figures include smartphones, then they are far too conservative (Symbian will do much better), but if not, they are far too optimistic!

But then again these are just stats and stats are as reliable as polititians' promises (unless they're the stats people want to hear in which case, they're great).

[Timothy Rapson]

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.


I want to see what these guys predicted 6 years ago that came true.
Remember 2 years ago the prediction that Pocket PC/WinCE would surpass Palm by 2005 worldwide? Well, that seems to have been conservative. This is showing world wide Pocket PC volumes are increasing faster than originally anticipated.

Just proves my point.

Did they predict sales would drop? Anything else about the market? Toshibas entry? Casios leaving? Sony's NR70V? Nope, they are blowing smoke. Now, I don't mind people making stuff up, but when they pretend they are accurate or expect people to make purchase decisions as if these predictions were accurate, they are just agravating.

[maestrobill]

First , I need to say that I purchased a Maestro because of the media player
, the color screen , the use of both Compact Flash and SD cards, and the price. In the medical surrounds where I work however, I am finding it impossible to find ANYONE, who has anything other than Palm based units, mostly SONY of late. The residents are being given free units with PDR's already on them, and everyone else has epocrates or PDR and other medical database programs. I feel left out woth my pocket PC because I have to pay over $100 for what everyone else has gotten for free. This ubiquitous Palm presence is influencing decisions by many hospitals in choosing charting systems. many are choosing Palm, despite the greater power of the Pocket PC systems. Just as IMB had an impossible uphill battle with OS2, Microsoft finds itself playing catch up. If the new Palm OS is sufficiently powerful, as well as backward compatible, and if enough other vendors sign on, they may surprise everyone, and maintain or even expand their lead.