PDA Shipments Continue to Slide

[Jason Dunn]

<a href="http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,104870,tk,dn091102X,00.asp">http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,104870,tk,dn091102X,00.asp</a><br /><br />Palm-OS based devices edge up a little, iPAQ/Jornada numbers trail by quite a bit. We need some OEM innovation! We need a new OS! We need....fuel cells. <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif" /><br /><br />"The number of handheld PDAs shipped worldwide declined 9.3 percent in the second quarter of 2002 compared with the same quarter last year, according to market researcher IDC. About 2.6 million PDAs were shipped in the second quarter, down from just under 2.9 million in the same quarter last year, IDC said in a release Tuesday...<br /><br />...Palm held the largest share of the market in the second quarter of this year with 32.2 percent, up from 30.9 percent in the second quarter last year, IDC's research showed. Second were PDAs made by Hewlett-Packard with 16.5 percent, and third were PDAs made by Sony with 10 percent. Handspring with 6.5 percent and China-based manufacturer Hi-Tech Wealth Electronic Product with 4.6 percent were fourth and fifth respectively, according to IDC, based in Framingham, Massachusetts."<br /><br />You can also check out the <a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jhtml?containerId=pr2002_09_06_153434">orignal IDC document</a>.

[JonnoB]

That is is a significant decline for HP/Compaq. If there is any good from it, I hope it is that HP realizes they need to innovate a little faster and drop the silly single expansion slot limitation in the current crop of iPaq devices. I won't add a sleave to my PDA unless it is for a third peripheral.

[karen]

I'm not a leading edge purchaser normally. But I'm already feeling the lag between my 3630 iPaq and what I want to use it for. However, being a reasonable adopter, I don't see any PPC models out there that are worth the small incremental gain I would get in functionality over my 3630 plus all the doodads I have for it. Granted, less weight, but for the $1500 dollars I'd have to spend to replace those things, I'd have relatively little to show for those bucks.

As soon as I see a generational increase in functionality, I'll buy. This would mean something like a faster processor that actually ran faster, a significant amount of onboard memory, a doubling of battery life, etc.

Some of the current models are tempting, but I just can't make the business case to upgrade, and it's looking like it might be more than a year until that happens.

K

[marcusbankuti]

I'm not a leading edge purchaser normally. But I'm already feeling the lag between my 3630 iPaq and what I want to use it for. However, being a reasonable adopter, I don't see any PPC models out there that are worth the small incremental gain I would get in functionality over my 3630 plus all the doodads I have for it. Granted, less weight, but for the $1500 dollars I'd have to spend to replace those things, I'd have relatively little to show for those bucks.

As soon as I see a generational increase in functionality, I'll buy. This would mean something like a faster processor that actually ran faster, a significant amount of onboard memory, a doubling of battery life, etc.

Some of the current models are tempting, but I just can't make the business case to upgrade, and it's looking like it might be more than a year until that happens.

K 1500 dollars is a lot.

What kind of things do you have for your iPaq that you would need to replace with a new device?

[dartman]

I agree. The incremental functionality on the new IPAQ's is just not worth the money. The screen is great on the 3900 but it's hard to justify the cost. Hopefully there will be some downward pressure with new market entries like Dell. The high end with BT and/or WiFi should be under $500 to attract a larger user base. Those equiped like the current models should be under $300 IMO.

I can't really figure out the audience they are looking for. If it's only nerds like us willing to pay to be the first kid on the block for new wizardry, they'll have trouble attracting a larger market without some pricing concessions. There's even a lot of resistance in our group.

dart

[Foo Fighter]

According to eTforecasts, Pocket PC will surpass PalmOS by 2004:

http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/f_headline.cgi?bw.090902/222520318

I have to say though, I'm getting pretty damn sick of these "market forecasts". They aren't worth the toilet paper they're printed on. :roll:

[Rob Alexander]

As soon as I see a generational increase in functionality, I'll buy. This would mean something like a faster processor that actually ran faster, a significant amount of onboard memory, a doubling of battery life, etc.

I couldn't agree more; the new models we're currently seeing are nice and all, but way too incremental to get excited over. I used to think that I'd upgrade my iPaq when new devices arrived that 1) had X-Scale CPUs and 2) had a new PPC OS version. In my mind, I figured that, by then, those products would also probably have 128MB of RAM and much better battery life.

Now as I look at it today, X-Scale is not significantly faster than SA1100, RAM has stalled at 64MB, battery life is only a bit longer, the next PPC OS remains unannounced, and it was discussed here a few months ago that MS is not optimising for X-Scale in the next OS. We're not exactly moving at a breathtaking pace, here.

There are a few interesting things happening in the PPC Phone Edition, but I still think that's very much a niche market and it doesn't interest me. (Just a BT PPC and a BT mobile phone for me, please.) I don't know what proportion of PPC sales is traditionally from upgraders, but if it's significant then I'm not surprised that sales are declining. Except for the terminally enthusiastic among us, there's just no compelling reason to upgrade right now. I would love to get truly excited about a PPC again, but for now it'll just have to remain merely a valuable and indespensible productivity tool.

[Foo Fighter]

That is a significant decline for HP/Compaq.

I wonder if this decline has anything to do with HPs decision to kill the Jornada. HPs earlier high marketshare was the result of combined iPaq - Jornada unit sales. If Jornada sales are trailing off sharply, it could be dragging HP down.

What is need now is a lower priced model, perhaps the rumored iPaq 2200, to help jump start sales.

[oldan]

I couldn't agree more; the new models we're currently seeing are nice and all, but way too incremental to get excited over.

You know... on the one hand, people complain when the evolution of the handheld is too slow. Then, when the new version comes out, and there's no upgrade path for the current model...
:?
I am running on a monochrome iPaq upgraded to the 2002 code. It does everything I need PLUS have great battery life. I'm not going to get a new one for a very long time -- or at least until some REAL LIVE functionality improvement comes along.

Oldan[/b]

[apeguero]

We need a hell of a lot better power management too. I'm sick of buying Pocket PCs that last only about 2 hours before they start crying for juice...

[pt]

We need a hell of a lot better power management too. I'm sick of buying Pocket PCs that last only about 2 hours before they start crying for juice...

that's just kinda annoying. the first message happens at like 60% full. from what i heard many customers wanted this so the oems keep it that way.

i'd like to specify a warning, like at 10%.

cheers,
pt

[gamboagarcia]

Well, yes, I agree. The lack of REAL improvement is part of, but also remember 911 and world wide economic crisis.

This toys are expensive for the mass and the new models are tempting but worthless.

I had a Palm IIIe then the PPC came and choose the HP J458 because of its CF. Then when I realized that the SH3 Processor was nothing compared with the ARM I decided to swich again. Roumors about Merlin where on the air at that time so I wait a little. With the new PPC 2002 OS came public also the HP J568 appeared, so that was my choice.

Why?. The "iPaq" series are too expensive for what they are. They are good looking but nothing else. You have to buy Optional Jackets to use almost anything. Even now that I use a wired connection, I just had to buy the CF Modem, plug it in and dial to get connected. Thats $99.00 for an expensive modem plus the Jornada. If I had an iPaq I had to buy a CF Jacket ($145.00) and a CF Modem ($99.00) a total investment of $244.00 plus the iPaq.

If I had to change today I don't have real options, even an iPaq 3900(sorry guys).

HP KILLED THE REAL WINNER and so the market, take in consideration, also, that the iPaq series is more expensive than the Jornada.

[ojlittle]

If I had an iPaq I had to buy a CF Jacket ($145.00) and a CF Modem ($99.00) a total investment of $244.00 plus the iPaq.


CF jackets are only $39 most places. A CF Plus jacket is $99, it includes a replaceable battery.

However, your point is still valid. It would now be $39 more expensive....

[Rob Alexander]

I couldn't agree more; the new models we're currently seeing are nice and all, but way too incremental to get excited over.

You know... on the one hand, people complain when the evolution of the handheld is too slow. Then, when the new version comes out, and there's no upgrade path for the current model...
:?
I am running on a monochrome iPaq upgraded to the 2002 code. It does everything I need PLUS have great battery life. I'm not going to get a new one for a very long time -- or at least until some REAL LIVE functionality improvement comes along.

Oldan[/b]

Exactly! We need some real live improvements. I'm simply not going to lay out all that money for nothing more than a prettier screen or built-in BT. Even though I'd like to have both of those, they're just not enough. It's time someone started from here and offered as much innovation and out-of-the-box thinking as the Compaq team did when they developed the iPaq. Whether you like the iPaq or not (not you in particular, Oldan), you can't deny that it was very innovative at the time.

BTW, I know what you mean about the seeming contradiction in what people want, but it's not really. People want hardware and software innovations to keep the market moving along. But they still want their existing PPC to be able to run the new software, at least for one generation beyond the original purchase. That's not unreasonable.

[Ravenswing]

I'm not a leading edge purchaser normally. But I'm already feeling the lag between my 3630 iPaq and what I want to use it for. However, being a reasonable adopter, I don't see any PPC models out there that are worth the small incremental gain I would get in functionality over my 3630 plus all the doodads I have for it. Granted, less weight, but for the $1500 dollars I'd have to spend to replace those things, I'd have relatively little to show for those bucks.

As soon as I see a generational increase in functionality, I'll buy. This would mean something like a faster processor that actually ran faster, a significant amount of onboard memory, a doubling of battery life, etc.

Some of the current models are tempting, but I just can't make the business case to upgrade, and it's looking like it might be more than a year until that happens.

K 1500 dollars is a lot.

What kind of things do you have for your iPaq that you would need to replace with a new device?

Since Karen and me seem to have the same issues, I'll see if I can answer for her.

I have a dual PC card jacket (and a single one that doesn't get used much now), BT card, WLAN card, Ethernet card, modem card, three different sizes of CF card (the largest of which is permanently slotted), and a folding keyboard.

Only the BT card is CF format, so if I bought something with only a CF slot I'd be looking at replacing three cards with more expensive equivalents.

The keyboard's probably a goner anyway since you need a different variant even for the later model iPAQs. Same goes for my sync cable, actually.

It's not difficult to rack up $1500 if you do it over a period of time in small lumps, but when you come to replacing them it siddenly gets terribly expensive to have all those essential gizmos.

[Jimmy Dodd]

It's not difficult to rack up $1500 if you do it over a period of time in small lumps, but when you come to replacing them it siddenly gets terribly expensive to have all those essential gizmos.


I agree. I held on to my HP 548 and was looking at moving up to a 568 because I didn't want to lose my accesories until HP decided to axe it. This left me with an extra cradle, charger, and keyboard that were useless. Same thing happened with the move from a HP 430se to the HP 548. Same thing happened with the move before that from my original Everex Palm-Size PC. I sold the 548 but no buyers yet for the accessories. I replaced it with a Toshiba e740 which I love, but I'm not buying any device specific items since I have little confidence that they will carry over to next generation devices.

Manufacturers need to come up with standards that can be used across devices. There's really no reason that each device needs a unique USB connector type or a different charger connector (are you listening HP?). At least Toshiba is using the same accesories across the 310 and 740 line. Compaq (RIP) also has carried the expansion sleeve concept across it's last couple of lines. Hopefully this will continue into the future.

[karen]

1500 dollars is a lot.

What kind of things do you have for your iPaq that you would need to replace with a new device?

I should have been clear $1500 Canuck or about $1000 US. Of course, 15% of that 1000 equivalent will be taxes, leaving me with about $850 for buying actual 'things'. Some things would need to be purchased from the US and would incur excessive shipping or smuggling costs[g]. And I'd really like a PDA/Phone, which are grossly more expensive here than in the US. This cost almost the entire $850 or more. Not to mention that there is little competition forcing prices downward. There are only a handful of medium to large computing retailers. Best Buy is coming in a couple of months, but they own the next largest competitor, Future Shop, so I don't see much competition there. Others, like CompuSmart are too small to show much competition.

I'd need to have a keyboard, some different memory, a new cord for my cell phone or a jacket or one of the more expensive phones, replace the PCMICIA cards that I use with SD or CF or whatever. I'd need AV out as well as some other more geeky gadgets.