Does the spin never end?

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&amp;cid=75&amp;ncid=738&amp;e=6&amp;u=/nf/20020909/tc_nf/19341">http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&amp;cid=75&amp;ncid=738&amp;e=6&amp;u=/nf/20020909/tc_nf/19341</a><br /><br />"In the United States, Palm's market share has climbed five percentage points since the start of the year, said Mace, and currently sits near the 90 percent mark. " Give me a break. <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif" /> The only way Palm is at 90% is if you assume every device they ever sold is still in use. Raise your hand if you and your coworkers have a Palm Pilot 1000, 5000 or even an original Palm III in service. Uh huh. I thought so.<br /><br />Well, rest assured, the battle between Palm and Microsoft goes well beyond marketing, and even beyond PDA enthusiast sites. <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_smile.gif" /> Microsoft has a war chest ready to go. "And while Palm recently launched an upgrade of its OS with multimedia and enhanced security features, IDC analyst Weili Su noted that Microsoft has some US$30 billion at its disposal to push its Pocket PC and upcoming Smartphone 2002 software. Gartner vice president Ken Dulaney contended that Palm's new OS will offer an attractive alternative to Pocket PC on the enterprise side, but he said Palm faces short-term challenges in getting users to make the transition. "They are building a whole new platform," he told Wireless NewsFactor. "

[Timothy Rapson]

As far as the article itself, it *does* look like all spin all the time. The guy selected the worst quotes from the worst sources. No info, just spin. Is this an election year?

I am amazed that Palm is selling a single PDA, with everyone and their mother knowing that a new OS is out this Fall. When Microsoft offers a new OS they have to promise a free upgrade and even then sales lag a little just before the new release.

What happened to Apple as they waited for OS X to be ready? With Toshiba PPCs selling for an effective $194 (some even got another $50 back afterwards as a price match) I am amazed that Palm sold any PDAs at all.

I am suspicious of Mace's claim that they have gained 5% in market share here this year. But, just to hold steady is an amazing accomplishment. Of course, if they are losing money on each one it won't help them much now to sell a lot of them. The base of 20 million users who will think first of a Palm OS model when they upgrade is a plus for the future, though.

I think there is one big reason that PPC is still not making it. In spite of the $30 million Maswell's Silver Hammer behind their back, that would allow them to squash anyone they want (if the Justice department let them) people look at the dumb desktop that they want to throw out the window (maybe that is why they call it Windows) everyday when it messes up. They do not want a Windows *anything* on their handheld.

Not that Palm is that much better. I expect OS 5 to still be fairly lame. I wish, oh how I wish it were Epoc Quartz.

[Ed Hansberry]

I am suspicious of Mace's claim that they have gained 5% in market share here this year.
There was a similar discussion at 'Buzz last year and Mace jumped in. They cling to retail numbers claiming that wholesale/enterprise numbers are too hard to get a handle on. So, they take comfort in the increased marketshare they get when they are blowing out discontinued Palm V and M100 models.

[Foo Fighter]

This is what I find most aggravating about Palm, and Mike Mace in particular. Self glorification, and the constant hurtling of criticisms at Microsoft's product for all its shortcomings..and yet they still don't have a competitive platform by which to judge. Where is Palm's advanced 32bit architecture? Where is multimedia support. Where is this multitasking...multithreading wonder from PalmSource? Microsoft has done it all wrong, while Palm has done it all right....except they haven't even done it yet. No product, just tough talk. A little too much tough talk from a company who's stock is worth less than a can of soda.

Show me a modern OS that is more innovative, offers the same (or better) capabilities, and still maintains the trademark advantages (battery life, size, weight, form factor, elegance) of PalmOS. Then we'll talk.

Palm has declared that it will continue to deliver the software and hardware handheld users have come to prefer over the alternatives.

Yeah, good plan. But first you might try to get back some of that marketshare you've lost to the "alternatives". Palm's customers seem to be increasingly choosing Sony's products.

Palm's market share has climbed five percentage points since the start of the year, said Mace, and currently sits near the 90 percent mark.

And this is counting ALL Palm's sold to date? I didn't realize that Pilot 1000's sitting in landfills were included in the installed base. How many of those 15,000 apps will a Palm run, buried under ten feet of garbage? If a datebook alarm goes off, and no one is around to hear it...does it make a sound? :roll:

"We have to offer greater flexibility in all these areas, including more hardware and software choices, ranging from a basic handheld device to camera-enabled smartphone models."

No, you don't have a camera-enabled smartphone (yet). Your licensees do. Stop counting innovations from your partners as your own.

I swear, someone should put a muzzle on Mace. I can see a replacement for my babbling Carl avatar is in order.

[Foo Fighter]

I wish, oh how I wish it were Epoc Quartz.

I wish that a company with the right vision and resources were able to take BeOS assets and create an amazingly innovative OS. Too bad that company isn't Palm.

[mookie123]

Didn't palm release a PR last february or so saying that they are about to take over the world just by European retail sales trend of the month?

and it turned out they are loosing so big for the quarter it's not even funny.

I think the big item this quarter will be the E310, because of the steep discount and transition to OS5.0. On the palm side it could be their deep discount can stave off the loosing market share. Majority of Palm now are under $2-250.

what is really interesting would be the next holiday buying season. Everybody is releasing new models. New OS5.0 in palm side, while PPC has new Dell on low end, and bunch of new .net high end. (what's up with the phone edition anyway?)

that would make an interesting situation.

[Jason Lee]

Palm's new fance, multi-media, complex, high powered OS is completly backwards from what "Palm" is. What happened to "simple"? Isn't that what they were saying they had that Microsoft didn't? Simple easy to use... Always bashing windows because people don't need mp3 audio or video playback on their handhelds.
So what do people want? If palm goes to this new fancy shmancy OS what happens to those (poor lost souls) who only want/need a basic digital organizer? Will palm alienate their current user base? Will they be able to sway enough new users to the not so dark side? Tune in next time...
:)

[Foo Fighter]

If palm goes to this new fancy shmancy OS what happens to those (poor lost souls) who only want/need a basic digital organizer?

Palm will continue to offer affordable legacy m68k based organizers running OS4. OS5 ARMware will be restricted to the high-end. Palm will continue to have a nicely balanced price tier for its customers. That isn't the problem.

The REAL problem is that Palm will begin marketing expensive devices with multimedia functions at a time when Pocket PC is getting cheaper. You can bet that the first OS5 systems will cost at least $450- $500. If the rumors of Dell's move into the PDA market with a $299 PPC are true, Palm is going to have a hard time trying to get consumers to buy their new hardware. It's rather sad. Palm has been fighting a bloody price war in the low-end of the market with its own licensees. And now they are jumping into the high-end market, just in time to get butchered by Pocket PC vendors. And in the cell phone/smartphone market, they have Nokia to content with.

Some days it just doesn't pay to be a money losing device company.

[mar2k]

I hope both Microsoft and Palm get it together. So far Smartphone 2002 devices are about as much vaporware as working Palm OS 5 units.

I wonder about the future of Pocket PC once Tablet PC is officially launched in November. You already have to pay $1000 for a new iPaq and a couple of accessories. If I could pay a little more for a smallish Tablet PC that runs full fledged Office XP instead of worrying about the limitations of Pocket Word, I think that would be an interesting dilemma. I know Microsoft says they are committed to the Pocket PC platform blah blah but what else are they going to say? Granted, a Tablet PC isn't much of an MP3 player, but neither is the current incarnation of WMP 8 for PPC for that matter. :wink:

[T-Will]

He also contended that despite Microsoft's broad array of applications offerings, Palm offers more software, with some 1,500 programs available.

1,500 POS programs... :roll:

[marconelly]

I would just like to point out that the king of spinned press releases is noone else but Microsoft. Reading their Xbox press releases can make one's stomach turn inside out...

[mememe]

Well, rest assured, the battle between Palm and Microsoft goes well beyond marketing, and even beyond PDA enthusiast sites. http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_smile.gif Microsoft has a war chest ready to go. "And while Palm recently launched an upgrade of its OS with multimedia and enhanced security features, IDC analyst Weili Su noted that Microsoft has some US$30 billion at its disposal to push its Pocket PC and upcoming Smartphone 2002 software. Gartner vice president Ken Dulaney contended that Palm's new OS will offer an attractive alternative to Pocket PC on the enterprise side, but he said Palm faces short-term challenges in getting users to make the transition. "They are building a whole new platform," he told Wireless NewsFactor. "

Hey.. novel idea Ed :?:
More money for marketing = Better product... :?:

[Jonathan1]

In other news Mace announced that the Pope has decided to release a Pope Palm. Each PDA will be doubly blessed with the Palm OS and the touch of the eminence. When asked to comment on the device Mr. Mace has this to say. "It’s the natural progression of the Palm. I mean Madonna release a Palm, Michael Jordan released on. Its time for his Holyness to get into the act. With this brave new device we believe we will increase market share 10 fold!"

When asked to comment the Vatican had this to say "While we are overall very enthusiastic about these turn of evens we are also somewhat disappointed. Expectations where high that that ability to play amazing grace every time an task was to take place, would be there. Unfortunately with Palm's hardware lacking we can only hope for divine intervention"

Speculation is rising though that the Pope is looking at the HP iPaq for its backlight display technology. It is believed with the backlight set to full in a dark room the user could appear to be lit by a heavenly light.

[CoffeeKid]

Ed, you said Microsoft has a war chest, ready to go.

First thought that popped into my head when I read this... the frequent comments by Jason and others about how really small and underfunded the PPC development team is... (usually said in response to people asking and demanding for specific features in the core OS and in included apps like pocket word, pocket exploder, file manager, etc etc).

Just a thought... :)

Mark

[Ed Hansberry]

Ed, you said Microsoft has a war chest, ready to go
It just depends on how much of that war chest MS is willing to spend in mobile devices. They also have X-Box, Windows .NET marketing, Office 11 marketing, etc. to fund.

[GregWard]

As someone who's worked in the market research industry for 20 years it really p...s me off when somebody quotes rubbishy data like this. Obviously if you want to quote any kind of meaningful data you have to base it on what people own/use NOW. That means spending money on collecting REAL research data not re-spinning ever-sold data to make it say black is white. :x

ps It also means avoiding everybody who logs on to this site!!! I wonder how many old devices we have stuck in cupboards between us! Probably enough to make a serious blip in Mace's data :twisted:

[fundmgr90210]

First off, I agree, these are delusional statements; however, I can't help but chuckle at the irony of you Ed, accusing others of marketing spin.

[fulltilt]

The article is poorly put together based on the facts.
It is what it is.

[mmace]

Folks,

I know it's not appropriate to do any Palm OS messaging on this board, but I hope you'll let me respond to the comments about me.

--I was talking about Palm OS share, not Palm hardware share.

--I was quoting NPD's US retail numbers. There was no counting of retired hardware or any other weirdness. NPD's measurement of Palm OS share is indeed up a bit since the beginning of the year, although for the record at this moment it's closer to 80% than 90% (it was higher last month). I don't remember all the details of this interview, but when I quote NPD I usually try to make it clear that I'm talking retail share. If I failed to do that in this case, I was wrong and I apologize.

--I work for PalmSource the OS company, not Palm the hardware company. Part of my job is to talk about the accomplishments of all the licensees. I'm not trying to take credit for any of their work, but I find it hard to talk about the OS without discussing the licensees.

--I know our licensees are not shipping any camera-enabled smartphones. I presume the reporter heard me say "camera-equipped models" and "smartphones" and strung the two together.

Thanks for listening.

Michael Mace
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

[Ed Hansberry]

Folks,

I know it's not appropriate to do any Palm OS messaging on this board, but I hope you'll let me respond to the comments about me.
:) I am the one that brought it up, so believe me, you are on topic and I appreciate the comments.
--I was talking about Palm OS share, not Palm hardware share.
I understood that. But that 90% cannot be accurate for 2002 or even 2001. It sounds like you are talking cumulative numbers - so Palm has somehting like 20-25M devices out there with Palm OS on it (includes licensees) going back to the original Palm Pilot. Is that range fair? We know Pocket PCs are well above 2M - iPAQ alone hit that in 2001. So lets say it is only at 3M. That is roughly a 90%/10% split and that ignores the older Palm-sized PCs.
--I was quoting NPD's US retail numbers. There was no counting of retired hardware or any other weirdness. NPD's measurement of Palm OS share is indeed up a bit since the beginning of the year, although for the record at this moment it's closer to 80% than 90% (it was higher last month). I don't remember all the details of this interview, but when I quote NPD I usually try to make it clear that I'm talking retail share. If I failed to do that in this case, I was wrong and I apologize.
Ahhh. Ok, that makes more sense. I agree - Palm is blowing Pocket PC out of the water in unit shipments for retail - with $100-$150 devices versus Pocket PCs that come in at $299 minimum on closeout sale (like the Maestro) and the norm in the $400-$550 range, it only makes sense. But when you include enterprise sales either direct from the OEM or wholesalers, the picture changes. Question: Does the NPD retail include internet sales like Amazon, Buy.com and MobilePlanet.com?

--I work for PalmSource the OS company, not Palm the hardware company. Part of my job is to talk about the accomplishments of all the licensees. I'm not trying to take credit for any of their work, but I find it hard to talk about the OS without discussing the licensees.
Agreed. You no longer can really talk about Palm Inc like that. They are a customer just like Sony and Handspring. You treat them equally. Fair enough.

--I know our licensees are not shipping any camera-enabled smartphones. I presume the reporter heard me say "camera-equipped models" and "smartphones" and strung the two together.

Thanks for listening.

Michael Mace
CCO, PalmSource Inc.
Thank you for participating! If you can shed some light on my follow up questions we'd all be appreciative of it.

[mmace]

But when you include enterprise sales either direct from the OEM or wholesalers, the picture changes. Question: Does the NPD retail include internet sales like Amazon, Buy.com and MobilePlanet.com?

NPD issues weekly sales reports that cover only the major retail chains. It also puts out a monthly report that includes a much broader set of retailers, plus commercial resellers and e-tailers.

NPD says commercial resellers are "companies like CDW." That channel is almost 100% sales to organizations (corporations, government, etc).

E-tailers are "companies like Amazon.com."

Two things are not covered in the reports I get:

--Direct shipment from the manufacturer.

--Sales from distributors, who sometimes sell to both retailers and corporations. They're not included in the retail report because you'd get double-counting of the units they send to retailers.



Palm has somehting like 20-25M devices out there with Palm OS on it (includes licensees) going back to the original Palm Pilot. Is that range fair?

About 25 million Palm OS handhelds have been shipped to date. Based on our research, we think about 18-20 million of those are still in use. No one is completely sure of the retirement rate for either old Palm OS handhelds or old PPC systems. In both cases, a lot of the units were bought by early adopters who are more likely to upgrade frequently, so you might expect a lot of retirement. But because handheld sales grew so rapidly in 2000-2001, most of the installed base is still pretty recent hardware, which would point to lower retirement.

Mike
CCO, PalmSource Inc.

[jlc, just jlc]

As a consultant, I trave alot and work with a variety of companies, and I see a lot of older Palms - generally III's, although a few pre-3Com units pop up occassionally. Plenty of Handspring models as well. Most of the older ones are used by people who only want PIM functionality, and they do that quite well.