Sony will buy Palm

[Jason Dunn]

The funny thing about psychics is that even if they're wrong 99% of the time, people only remember the "amazing" 1% that they got right. So if I'm right about this, you'll all be amazed. If I'm wrong, you'll forget I ever mentioned it. Right? So here's my prediction...(I'm not the first one to suggest that Sony might buy Palm, but I haven't been truly convinced until recently):<br /><br />Back in October 2000, I boldly (foolishly?) predicted that Palm would be a "smoking husk of a company" in 24 months. We're two months away from the deadline, and Palm is doing better than I thought. But they're not out of the woods yet, and the big bad wolf (share price) is stalking them. Today they were <a href="http://forums.pdabuzz.net/showthread.php?s=e9284161108b323c54020506408985e3&threadid=41364">removed from the S&amp;P 500</a> when their stock fell below 90 cents in after hours trading. They're now under the radar of the big brokers (have been since dipping below $5), and things can only get worse - they're trying a <a href="http://www.nando.net/technology/story/480375p-3835462c.html">reverse stock split</a>, which would turn ten of those 90 cent stocks into a single nine-dollar stock. It's a bold, but desperate move - from what I've read, it very rarely works long-term (Iomega is among the rare exception for a company that successfully did it).<br /><br />So here's my prediction. The tax penalty for buying Palm after their spin-off from 3COM expired recently. I believe that Sony is waiting in the wings for Palm's stock value to get painfully low, at which time they'll make an attempt to purchase PalmSource (the software company). They could care less about the Palm hardware - they have better hardware anyway. They'll get PalmSource for a good price, and within 24 months they'll discontinue licensing the software to the other OEMs (despite initial promises to the contrary). Palm, Handspring, and all other licensees will have no OS for their devices and will be forced to develop their own or use Windows CE. Oh the irony.<br /><br />Why would Sony do this? Because Sony stands to gain more from controlling the OS themselves than the few bucks they'd make from licensing it to others. It's also not Sony's corporate mentality to support competing products with an asset they would own. They would love to be the only Palm device on the market, and will squarely target the consumer - they don't care about the enterprise market.<br /><br />So, by the fall of 2004, it will be Sony vs. the Pocket PC. There's my prediction. Thoughts?

[JonnoB]

It sure would create waves in the industry... but if anyone were to buy Palm, it is Sony. I just wish Sony could see that the Palm intellectual property is not worth the effort and use their device design billiance to make a good Pocket PC instead.... but I don't see that ever happening! :cry:

[Jeff Rutledge]

I just wish Sony could see that the Palm intellectual property is not worth the effort and use their device design billiance to make a good Pocket PC instead.... but I don't see that ever happening! :cry:

I agree. A Sony device running PPC would be incredible! But, like you say, I don't see Sony getting into bed with M$ for a very, very long time.

[pradike]

8)
Jason - you are right on the money with your prediction. Sony already has significant $$$ tied up in cross licensing and other costs with the Palm platform, and also has the resources to re-launch it under their Brand.

While this would truly be the (only) way to keep Palm alive longer...the only way Sony could succeed is to trash the Palm management and marketing plans. If they sell it under their Brand and with their marketing mthods, they can survive.

Palm itself has no way out any more without a huge influx of capital. They can't keep up with new products and innovations like they did in the old days with IPO $$$. Sony could be the white night savior if they buy the whole thing, as you predict they will.

8) You are right on the money....wouldn't be surprised to see it happen before year end (tax considerations)...I've told a few friends the exact same thing (Palm owners)...and to my surprise, they agreed!!!! One has already sold his Plam and bought a new Clie.

[Jason Dunn]

Yeah, it's HIGHLY unlikely that Sony will build a Pocket PC. There's some bad blood between Microsoft and Sony - they compete on many levels, and it's only going to get worse.

[mookie123]

The stock can still go much much lower, Sony would be wise to just wait until it reaches near bottom.

as of miday today, PALM is bid around .80, which bring it to about 463M market cap.

Palm's big customers will start asking if they will be around much longer and can commit to long term plan. If they will be around after christmas when sales number is bad, the reverse stock fail to create bottom support, and there is a hostile takeover attemp or they fail to get a refinancing for next OS6.0 product. Nobody will want to commit big effort if they won't be around in 6 months or if Sony buys them and refuse to share the OS.

All in all I think the reverse stock decission is bad, it create cascading event that lead to total lost of confidence instead of stabilizing the situation. They should have just keep going and the stock will hoover around $1.50 or even up along with the sporadic bull. But now they lost almost half of their value and along also market confidence.

[Foo Fighter]

I just wish Sony could see that the Palm intellectual property is not worth the effort

That is a matter of opinion. Palm's intellectual property (PalmOS + BeOS) is worth a great deal, especially considering that it is the DOMINANT platform. People here seem to forget that.

The real problem is...Palm has neither the capitol nor vision to develop the OS. There is a great deal of potential in the BeOS acquisition. If put in the hands of visionary, talented developers, the PalmOS could morph into a platform that makes Pocket PC look like a bad Win32 hack. Perhaps Sony will swoop in with its bag of money and save this platform. But if Palm continues to run the show, and Dell manages to mass market $299 Pocket PC devices....PalmOS is dead as door nail. :crazyeyes:

[saquibk]

If your prediction does turn out to be true, the worst thing would be that we will never see a Sony PocketPC. I, like many others, have always loved Sony designs. So it would be great to see what Sony could do if it ever made a PocketPC.

[entropy1980]

I think Sony is already getting their foot in the door into buying Palm, they have with OS 5 contributed the API for high res screens among other things, I think it is only a matter of time.

[BoyWithPockets]

I agree that Sony would be in a good position to buy PlamSource. In fact it's probably in Sony's interest in doing this.

On the other hand I don't agree that Sony will shut all the others out of PalmOS. Sony does license its technology to others. They just like to be in control. Examples... the new fancy PocketPC phone you are playing with probably has a Sony screen on it. They let Sandisk and Lexar (and a few others) make memory sticks, and anybody can add a MemoryStick device if they want to (e.g. Acer, Samsung etc..).

Never mind that there was many previous Sony technology that's in wide-spread use, include the 3.5" floppy and the CD.

So I don't think the other licensee have any worries about Sony shutting them out.

[DrtyBlvd]

VHS Vs Betamax.

An interesting proposal Jason - Sony Ericsson Palm.

Perhaps with their clout they might make the step-change to compete with PPC on a simillar playing field - a sort of hybrid if you will?

[Master O'Mayhem]

The only bad thing i could see if Sony made a PPC is that its you only have a Memory Stick Slot.

[T-Will]

Why would we ever need a Sony Pocket PC? Aren't there companies out there with the vision and drive that Sony has that could design a very similar Pocket PC with advanced features? I guess the Sony name brand could be a big selling point, but I'm guessing that we will see some really neat Pocket PC hardware innovation coming up.

[fundmgr90210]

I agree that Sony could be lurking in the wings (and they're not the only ones I'm sure). However, the split between the Hardware and OS divisions of Palm is not yet complete. Thus, Sony could potentially buy the entire company, keeping some of the brighter hardware engineers (there arguably aren't a lot of them at Palm) and other assets they might want. But no, in effect, Palm hardware would no longer exist.

I see it as a good thing for Palm OS. Sony's hardware and Palm Source/Be's developers is quite a marriage. I think it's bad news for PPC in the sense that going up against Sony in the consumer market is a dicey proposition for anyone (in innovation alone, no player in the PDA game has done more than Sony over the past year). That means PPC makes most of its sales in the enterprise market and remains only a niche product.

Maybe those "Sony vs. Microsoft vs. Nokia" predictions have some real teeth?

[TBone]

To be honest, I'd love to see this. As someone said, put Palm and BeOS in the hands of some seriously inspired and non-conventional designers and coders, people who are not afraid to try something seriously bizarre and groundbreaking, and we just might see something to bring me back to the platform. Palm started out as a pretty cool idea--actually turning the pocket computer/assistant into an affordable reality--and then ruined it by halting any kind of innovation. As much as it pains me to say it, they need the equivalent of Apple's OS X: a flashy but solid piece of machinery that will make ordinary people pick up a Palm again. And Sony has certainly shown they're capable of it.

[Kre]

They'll get PalmSource for a good price, and within 24 months they'll discontinue licensing the software to the other OEMs (despite initial promises to the contrary). Palm, Handspring, and all other licensees will have no OS for their devices and will be forced to develop their own or use Windows CE. Oh the irony.

...Sony stands to gain more from controlling the OS themselves than the few bucks they'd make from licensing it to others. It's also not Sony's corporate mentality to support competing products with an asset they would own. They would love to be the only Palm device on the market, and will squarely target the consumer - they don't care about the enterprise market.

So, by the fall of 2004, it will be Sony vs. the Pocket PC. There's my prediction. Thoughts?

This doesnt surprise me at all. Just think, this would essentially wipe out all other palm competitors and reduce palm market share by a large amount initially.

It never made any sense to me why palm would create something, license it to other companies, and then compete with those companies. Made no sense. Just stupid if you ask me. So it does make sense that Sony would not license the OS to anyone else. Thats how youre supposed to do things in business. At least Sony would know how to run with it. The people at palm havent been much more than a band of morons.

If palm and the other palm licensees try to come out with another OS, no one will care about it. Those efforts will fail.

I too, would like to see Sony create a pocket pc. Theyd do an incredible job at that. But its the palm OS that will keep them from being King of the Hill. Even as big as they are, they cant compete and win against MS here. Not to mention, the enterprise is just too important, and since Sony doesnt care about that... well, you get the picture.

Im really eager to see what happens here. Its about time palm just dies off once and for all and lets Sony take the reigns from here.

[JMountford]

Since this is conjecture, and sence business conjecture is something I am usually pretty good at. Let me take a few moments.

Palm is dieing, but VERY, Very slowly. Sure their death is picking up speed but it will still be a while.

Palm will hope that holiday sales will drive a big turnaround, but in all honesty. I do not see big holiday sales for any handhelds this year. Bad economy and people waiting for next year's better devices will contribute heavily. Maybe if Palm does get some good numbers during the holidays, they can accidently forget to claim some of those numbers and spread them out over the next few months. Other companies have used this tactic. Let's not quible over legalities it is just an idea.

Anyway, regardless Palm will not survive too much longer as their current entity. So will they Be (pun) for sale? Absolutely. Will SOny buy is something no one has really asked, mostly because they would be stupid not to.

If Sony can aquire Palm it means very rough days for our beloved Pocket PC. Sony has allready proven they are just as innovative with the Palm software as they are with hardware. This would however be their first big foray into the software market, so it will be a bit bumby at first, but not for long as the building blocks are allready in place. Sony is just as good, if not better, as MS at getting other companies to adapt to their new technology and standards. The only saving grace for MS wil be that sony is stingy too.

I do not see Sony cutting off the licensies right off the bat, but Sony will not allow new Licenses to new companies, and the current crop of Palm licensies will have to abide by Sony's rules to be able to continue under new agreements. I see Sony emplementing hardware requirements like MS does. This added to Sony's proven track record in the consumer marketplace could devestate MS.

MS and their partners will have to innovate quickly as well as build a more public identity for the Pocket PC. Otherwise we could lose PPC before MS intends us to.The new crop of cheap 206 machines could save our camp.

Time to lay the next card and see what happens.

[wm5051]

I always try to look at a company's core business whenever someone speculates about acquisitions and mergers. Forgive my ignorance, but from what I know, Sony has not traditionally been in the OS business. Sure, there are the few (and successful) exceptions like the Playstation, but in almost every other case, they license the operating systems they use for most of their products. Sony Ericsson uses Ericsson OS for the majority of their current handsets and license Symbian for the upcoming P800. The Sony VIAO line uses Windows. For handhelds they use Palm.

Sony thrives on hardware, design and inventory management (look at how many Palm OS devices they have released since they licensed the Palm OS). I do not think Sony is at all prohibited from expanding into other areas, but in a down market should we really expect this sort of maneuver?

Then again, a move to use the Palm OS in more of their consumer goods might make a lot of sense. Well until anything happens this is all conjecture anyway.

[kiwi]

heh - well, imagine if APPLE made a PocketPC..

mind you, their ipod is getting some ineresting features nowadays :)

[Jason Dunn]

Maybe those "Sony vs. Microsoft vs. Nokia" predictions have some real teeth?

I think they do. Those are three BIG companies with a lot of power in the marketplace - and each one is still in the infancy of getting spun up on mobile devices. The next couple of years are going to be VERY interesting.

[JonnoB]

I just wish Sony could see that the Palm intellectual property is not worth the effort

That is a matter of opinion. Palm's intellectual property (PalmOS + BeOS) is worth a great deal, especially considering that it is the DOMINANT platform. People here seem to forget that.

Yep, it's my opinion that the Palm OS cannot be sustained. Using BeOS is the right path and it is of significant value. Using it however means throwing away much of the current PalmOS in favor of emulation. Apple was brave in doing with with OS X, would Palm/Sony? Although Palm still dominate market share, I think that technically, it is a case of 'too little - too late' to catch up. Who knows, I could be wrong and the BeOS emulates PalmOS beautifully and becomes a great PDA OS platform... but I have strong doubts.

[AZMark]

Sony would be wise to buy the hardware side as well,,,,why?

Market Share. They would instantly own 60+% of the market.

Corporate Presense. Palm has a national (US) presense. Sony has never been able to penetrate the US corporate market.

Add ons and upgrades. More palms out there to get users to upgrade.

Good Will. If they just buy the software and force the hardware out of business, the market might react negatively. They will be the big meenie where Palm was always the underdog. People can already buy a Pocket PC from the big hairy gorilla.

[DrtyBlvd]

Slightly left of centre - re the OS / Sony relationship - the one thing that I would criticise Sony for (And I own circa $30k Sony branded merchandise) is anything they do with regard to software - None of it has ever been any good, and their tech support, from a purely VAIO standpoint, has been very heavily critiqued in a lot of places; Correct me if I'm wrong by all means, but isn't most of their software stuck on revision 1.1 levels?

Whether a palm hook-up would change that heaven only knows.

[Jonathan1]

I just wish Sony could see that the Palm intellectual property is not worth the effort and use their device design billiance to make a good Pocket PC instead.... but I don't see that ever happening! :cry:

I disagree. The Palm OS is a good OS IF.....and ONLY if it would be updated, revamped, and given one hell of an overhaul. I see the Palm OS like a car from the 1980's that was never treated right. At the time it was PHAT. But age and lack of care has turned a once beautiful thing into a rusting pile of crap. It's in need of a serious overhaul and adding oil to it now and again no longer cuts it.

Sony makes good products...Period. While I myself disagree as to some of they stubborn paths they have taken in the past (Read: Memory Stick) I think overall they are one of the most innovative, forward thinking, tech companies in the world. I personally believe that if Sony and MS go head to head Sony WILL thrash MS. At least in the short run until MS decides to "integrate" something into their OS and pulls a "Netscape".

The purchase of Palm would make every die hard Palmite go catatonic but in the long run it’s what NEEDS to happen to keep the Palm OS from dieing. The current crop of management at Palmsource are spin docs and charlatans that paint a pretty picture. PalmSource doesn't need spin. They need innovation.

[DrtyBlvd]

I personally believe that if Sony and MS go head to head Sony WILL thrash MS. At least in the short run until MS decides to "integrate" something into their OS and pulls a "Netscape".

oof. Fightin' talk. But you may well be right... to a degree; I could see Sony putting MS to bed with no supper on the basis of hardware sales etc, but the software side....

[madmaxmedia]

It's a bold, but desperate move - from what I've read, it very rarely works long-term (Iomega is among the rare exception for a company that successfully did it).

Splitting or reverse-splitting doesn't really do anything in and of itself from a operational perspective. Either Palm the company is going to recover, or it isn't. The stock price will then reflect that. Usually companies that reverse split are headed downhill, and continue to head downhill after the reverse split.

I personally believe that if Sony and MS go head to head Sony WILL thrash MS. At least in the short run until MS decides to "integrate" something into their OS and pulls a "Netscape".

Aren't they already basically going head to head with CLIE vs. PocketPC? Of course, it's Sony hardware versus MS software, so it's not a direct competition.

If Sony bought Palm, would they gear OS changes towards consumers rather than business? That seems to be their focus (more or less) with their computing products. I wonder what specific changes might come as a result of such a change in philosophy. Obviously beefed up multimedia and color, but those were going to be part of OS 5 anyways.

[Kre]

Its true this is all just conjecture at this point, so heres some more conjecture... :)

If Sony can aquire Palm it means very rough days for our beloved Pocket PC.

This may be true, but I wonder if it would be any more rough than MS allows it to be. Sony is a big company, but MS is such a monster that I think as long as they continue to innovate and market the pocket pc, Sony wont be an overwhelming force. Having a presence in the enterprise is going to create product awareness and market share that will give MS the edge. Not to mention, MS has the edge in terms of OS that Sony will never have with palm.

Sony is just as good, if not better, as MS at getting other companies to adapt to their new technology and standards. The only saving grace for MS wil be that sony is stingy too.

You mean, like their memory stick, mini disc, and Betamax? I have to disagree here. Sony certainly has a lot of influence, but a handheld is much more than just another electronic gadget... we`re getting into the computer field here, and again, MS certainly has the edge here. I believe Sonys stinginess is irrelevant.

Keep in mind how much progress MS has made with their Xbox in competition with Sonys PlayStation. MS has made amazing strides in the gaming industry in less than one year by stealing millions of consumers away from Sony, who has been in the gaming industry for several years.

Palm has indeed lost their edge when it comes to handheld innovation, but for the longest time they wore the crown here, they are a household name and had enormous market share. But despite all of that, look at how much market share MS took from them. My belief is that MS takes their technology very seriously and recognizes how good Sony is at innovating when it comes to electronic devices. But this isnt something that cant be overcome and I seriously doubt that they view or would view Sony as much more of a handheld threat than Palm was. Sony may take the market share away from its fellow palm competitors at some point. But one thing is certain... MS and its partners wont share their growing market percentage with anyone.

I do not see Sony cutting off the licensies right off the bat...

That might be true, but I cant think of a logical reason why they wouldnt.

I see Sony emplementing hardware requirements like MS does.

I dont think Sony will want to make the effort or take on this kind of role. I think Sony will just want to focus on itself. They wouldnt do this anyway if there was a chance that they would cancel licenses, which IMO is likely.

This added to Sony's proven track record in the consumer marketplace could devestate MS.

Sony will never devestate MS. The US government couldnt devestate MS. If MS wants to conquer Sony in this industry, it will.

MS and their partners will have to innovate quickly as well as build a more public identity for the Pocket PC.

Although MS has enormous influence and control, I agree with this. This is always the case in business if you want to be or remain on top.

[TQBrady]

I totally disagree.

I have a feeling that Sony may warm up to Symbian. Open Source means no license fees per unit.

Apple will buy Palm.

Markup my words.

[Kre]

I totally disagree.

I have a feeling that Sony may warm up to Symbian. Open Source means no license fees per unit.

Apple will buy Palm.

Markup my words.

Interesting perspective. In the past, I wondered about Apple buying palm. But I really wonder if Apple will want palms leftovers, so to speak. What would they do with it besides hack it all up and start over. Im not sure about this. My thoughts are that if Apple decides to put out a handheld, theyre going to go their own way and do something completely fresh from scratch.

[possmann]

I think the potential buyers for this once great product will be either Apple or Sony. For a while I was looking at IBM heavily, but this type of product just wouldn’t ‘fit’ into what they are all about. If I were a beatin’ man – and I am not – I’d put my money on Sony – only because of their familiarity with the product and their heavy use & distribution of it.

I mean you already have a Sony – OS, if you think about it. What is stopping them from finishing it up?

Bea will die, Apple will pick up the pieces morphing their iPOD into the next greatest thing and the great majority of the Palm OS developers will find themselves developing for the iPOD OS as Sony will begin to charge for their “add-ons” and development SDK’s…

I was a Palm evangelist when this first came out and up to the last release of the 3.x OS. I watched them grow into something way out of control and totally loose the advantage they had to really own this marketplace. No innovation whatsoever during those years and what a disheartening thing to see and go through…

Anyone want to post a survey on how long it will be before someone buys the Palm OS and dismantles the company?

[Hans the Hedgehog]

Keep in mind how much progress MS has made with their Xbox in competition with Sonys PlayStation. MS has made amazing strides in the gaming industry in less than one year by stealing millions of consumers away from Sony, who has been in the gaming industry for several years.


Not to stray too far off topic here, but MS only started doing better when they dropped the price by $100. The PS2 had been selling at that same price point ($300) for over a year, and even higher at the release. The PS2 was much more "desirable" in the consumer's mind (just like the early IPAQ) and they happily paid for it. And, are you sure MS "stole" customers from the PS2... I know plenty of folks who have 2 or more platforms.


Sony will never devestate MS. The US government couldnt devestate MS. If MS wants to conquer Sony in this industry, it will.


Not *couldn't*, Kre, wouldn't. This Bush administration has no teeth with regards to MS, and it has used obvious political pressure to cause the courts off MS. Also, like it or not, they are guilty of monopolistic things, just because they are getting away with it doesn't mean it is right, proper, or even acceptable.

Now, back to topic, if Sony were to buy the PalmOS, they could begin to incorporate it into their entertainment devices. They have already been on record discussing their desire to find or create in house an "entertainment OS." This would be the real kicker.

What I don't think anyone here realizes, or at least hasn't mentioned, is that Sony doesn't care too much about the enterprise, never had. And, quite honestly, I don't see the enterprise as the huge market everyone here thinks it is for Sony. If they create a PDA that is entertainment based, interfaces directly with entertainment devices, phones, and whatnot, then they will have a very compelling device on their hands. And a device that would sell. They can bundle, they can connect the device to so many other devices that they could really create a very useful device. Just becaue MS might take the enterprise, how large is that market... really. Not how big do you think it is, how big really... hard numbers!

The other thing is that Sony has a much stronger base in Japan, where so much bleeding-edge wireless stuff is being done that we haven't even begun to see the effects of. Interesting possibilities there a plenty. They need an OS that isn't as bloated and doesn't require such powerful hardware just to seem functional.

Face it, Sony gets to do whatever they want because they can. They have the R&D and love to use it. MS could do more with the OS, but chooses not to (crippled PocketWord anyone?) because they would kill their hardware support (look at all the XScale comments about compatibility).

Oh yeah, about Sony's failed proprietary inventions:
Betamax-- until recently, one of the mainstays of video professionals. Go figure, not VHS even though the home uses it.

Minidisc-- you might not have one, maybe your friends don't either, but the MD market is much larger in Japan and larger in Europe than the US, is better than any audio tape, cheaper than any memory based MP3 player. Just because the American consumer is clueless, doesn't mean much, really.

MemoryStick-- yeah, it's got its problems, but it is just as proprietary as the SD protocol, and I don't see anyone b****ing about that. Anyways, the MemoryStick is used more than SmartMedia, and the last time I saw numbers, more than MMC/SD. Go figure.

Personally, if Sony bought Palm I wouldn't be surprised...

Hans.

[Jonathan1]

I withdraw my comment on memory stick! 8O Being the idiot I am I washed my 128MB card and just found it in the dryer. Stuck it in my camera and the pictures are still there! Tough little tech. :D

[topps]

Now, back to topic, if Sony were to buy the PalmOS, they could begin to incorporate it into their entertainment devices. They have already been on record discussing their desire to find or create in house an "entertainment OS." This would be the real kicker.


I'm not a real OS expert but why do you think that the Palm OS would make a good OS for entertainment devices. Just because it runs on small devices? From what I understand, the Palm OS is all designed around it being a collection of small databases. No multi-tasking, no multithreading, no multi-cpu support. Not scalable. While I'm not a huge fan of WinCE, I do think that all these things matter when trying to stream multiple data channels (audio, video, control etc) and that the Palm OS has little to offer here.

Not that I'm trying to suggest that Sony will adopt WinCE, for the same reasons as more eloquently stated above by other posters.


What I don't think anyone here realizes, or at least hasn't mentioned, is that Sony doesn't care too much about the enterprise, never had. And,


Agree ++ on this one.

. Just becaue MS might take the enterprise, how large is that market... really. Not how big do you think it is, how big really... hard numbers!


Yes, i'd be really interested to know this too.


MemoryStick-- yeah, it's got its problems, but it is just as proprietary as the SD protocol, and I don't see anyone b****ing about that. Anyways, the MemoryStick is used more than SmartMedia, and the last time I saw numbers, more than MMC/SD. Go figure.


Not from the numbers I've seen...but then these seem to vary by source, kinda like PocketPC vs Palm sales, or Windows vs Apple sales a few years ago.

Cruising around the consumer electronic stores (yeah, I know, get a life), it strikes me that there are lots of CF and MMC/SD cards for sale, fewer SmartMedia and very few memory sticks...unless you go into camera stores...different balance. Now how big is that market, compared to PDAs?

[connect2john]

Sony is excellent @ making cool and got-ta-have-it hardwares, but truthfully they suck when it comes to software, especially in the field of OS, remember their PDA "Magic" a few years back :x

[Kre]

Heres my response, off topic or not... And keep in mind, that Im not arguing here, but I do find it fun to debate now and then :D...

Not to stray too far off topic here, but MS only started doing better when they dropped the price by $100. The PS2 had been selling at that same price point ($300) for over a year, and even higher at the release. The PS2 was much more "desirable" in the consumer's mind (just like the early IPAQ) and they happily paid for it. And, are you sure MS "stole" customers from the PS2... I know plenty of folks who have 2 or more platforms.

Some folks do have more than one platform, this is true, but that doesnt always mean the same thing in each instance. There are people who own both platforms, but I know of no one who goes out and buys two or three different platforms at the same time. They bought ps2 because Xbox didnt exist when they made their purchase, then bought Xbox later because they saw its potential and that it has technology superior to the other platforms, otherwise they wouldnt have purchased it. This would explain the majority of cases where two gaming platforms can be found in the home.

You say that consumers found the ps2 more desirable. More desirable than what? Nintendo? Xbox didnt exist until long after the ps2 came out. MS `stole` consumers from Sony by putting out a superior gaming machine and supplying fantastic games.

MS lowered the price on Xbox, but they certainly didnt have to. Xbox was selling just fine at $300. But I do have to add, what company wouldnt sell higher volume by lowering prices? Sometimes, MS`s pricing strategies have more to do with getting their technology into as many hands and homes as possible than anything else. I know of no product MS has put out where they had to lower the price because consumers were unwilling to pay for it. Also keep in mind that consumers would naturally be more cautious buying into something new with few games as opposed to buying a long recognized Sony gaming machine with many games. Few, at this stage in the gaming industry, are going to pay crazy prices for a platform that is brand new with few games. But give it time... Xbox is MS`s first effort, while the ps2 was Sonys second effort after building years of game brand recognition. Granted, great hardware naturally helps sales, but consumers finding a ps2 desirable enough to pay outrageous prices for it had more to do with its reputation and higher selection of games at that point, and most importantly, pure market hype, than the technology itself. Because anybody who can read can see that specs wise, the Xbox kicks the ps2`s butt hands down, but I didnt hear stories about consumers paying outrageous sums of money for it. Ask most Xbox owners if they feel its less desirable than a ps2.

Not *couldn't*, Kre, wouldn't. This Bush administration has no teeth with regards to MS, and it has used obvious political pressure to cause the courts off MS. Also, like it or not, they are guilty of monopolistic things, just because they are getting away with it doesn't mean it is right, proper, or even acceptable.

Oh yes they would have. Thats exactly what they were trying to do. If they wouldnt have, then why would they have ever started the whole process in the first place? You state yourself that MS is guilty of monopolistic activity. If anyone knew this, Im sure the government did. But then you state that the government backed off from their own legal pursuits. Thats contradictory behavior to say the least. Why would they do that? The Bush administration wouldnt interupt a legal process of that magnitude by simply telling the courts to back off if MS was truly guilty of monopolistic activity. The part of government responsible for handling this sort of thing didnt accomplish what it set out to do because of other reasons. And whether that was due to MS having a brilliant legal defense, or political connections, or enough money to wear everybody down, or a combination of those things, my point was that even with the virtually unlimited funds and resources the US government has, they werent successful in what they originally set out to do. I was trying to put the Sony threat into perspective by comparing them to the massive US government. If MS can fight the US government and come out with only a few slaps on the wrist, then Im sure Sony isnt going to be too daunting.

As far as MS`s behavior... thats another topic altogether that I didnt touch on. But I understand what youre saying.

Now, back to topic, if Sony were to buy the PalmOS, they could begin to incorporate it into their entertainment devices. They have already been on record discussing their desire to find or create in house an "entertainment OS." This would be the real kicker.

They could indeed do that. The question is, would they. And if they did, would this even have an big negative effect on the pocket pc market share? Time will tell. But the advantage MS has with this, is an enormous knowledge base, brand recognition, and current majority market share when it comes to OS`s that Sony does not. OS`s are MS`s area of expertise, and I think Sony is going to find it very difficult to compete with MS on this level. Consumers` computers all run MS OS`s and software, and this is a very powerful edge when it comes to promoting other products that run OS`s that all come from that same company. You can bet that MS is going to go for the jugular when it comes to this.

What I don't think anyone here realizes, or at least hasn't mentioned, is that Sony doesn't care too much about the enterprise, never had. And, quite honestly, I don't see the enterprise as the huge market everyone here thinks it is for Sony. If they create a PDA that is entertainment based, interfaces directly with entertainment devices, phones, and whatnot, then they will have a very compelling device on their hands. And a device that would sell. They can bundle, they can connect the device to so many other devices that they could really create a very useful device. Just becaue MS might take the enterprise, how large is that market... really. Not how big do you think it is, how big really... hard numbers!

Somebody mentioned this fact. I think when it comes to computer products, the enterprise is a huge factor. Not just because it means more sales and market share, but also because the enterprise is made up of human beings who go home each night to work with their own computers and devices. Working with MS products at work has enormous influence on what people use in their personal lives. And it just gives one more place where people spend a fourth of their lives, for MS to market their name and products to individuals. When it comes to devices with OS`s, many people also want the best consistency available between the devices they use personally or at home and what they use at work. May not be important to some, but it is for many. This means that if MS is used at work, then for most this is going to mean MS products at home or on the go. I know that people could argue this issue, but the consistency factor really does influence consumers... Microsoft at work, at home, and on the go.

You also talk about the potential for Sony to embed the palm OS into many different devices in the home and so on, which could interface with each other. Sounds good for Sony, but action is louder than words. Besides, would consumers even want the palm OS embedded into most every Sony device they buy? Sony would need to determine whether or not this was even the case. But it does sound a bit like what MS is currently doing with devices like the Smartphone, Icebox, and Windows and their efforts to make the computer the entertainment center of the home. Not to mention, MS`s desktop OS`s command almost 95% market share. This is a heavy advantage that MS can use to leverage any competition it may have with Sony, when it comes to compatibility issues and other advantages between the desktop and other devices with embedded OS`s. Sony licenses the main OS, but MS owns it. MS can easily put the squeeze on Sony in many creative ways to give themselves the advantage while making it harder on Sony.

The other thing is that Sony has a much stronger base in Japan, where so much bleeding-edge wireless stuff is being done that we haven't even begun to see the effects of. Interesting possibilities there a plenty. They need an OS that isn't as bloated and doesn't require such powerful hardware just to seem functional.

If youre referring to wireless handhelds, the two or three major wireless players in Japan are hardly interested in the palm OS. The Japanese are mostly interested in feature rich devices, and the palm OS is hardly the answer to this, which is why it doesnt need the fastest processor to run. A little handheld OS is hardly bloated, but Im sure no one doubts it is larger than the palm OS. After all, it takes power to make all those features in the pocket pc OS work. But beyond this, how could any of us know what they need?

Face it, Sony gets to do whatever they want because they can. They have the R&D and love to use it. MS could do more with the OS, but chooses not to (crippled PocketWord anyone?) because they would kill their hardware support (look at all the XScale comments about compatibility).

MS also gets to do whatever they want because they can, and they too, have the R&D and love to use it. But no company gets everything right all of the time, including Sony, so Im not sure what your point is here.

Oh yeah, about Sony's failed proprietary inventions: Betamax-- until recently, one of the mainstays of video professionals. Go figure, not VHS even though the home uses it.

Failed in terms of market dominance and general presence. Video professionals use many different formats, but until you mentioned it, I wasnt even aware that a person could even buy a Betamax machine. When`s the last time anyone has seen physical evidence of one of these? Sony made it, but it didnt succeed.

Minidisc-- you might not have one, maybe your friends don't either, but the MD market is much larger in Japan and larger in Europe than the US, is better than any audio tape, cheaper than any memory based MP3 player. Just because the American consumer is clueless, doesn't mean much, really.

MiniDisc does indeed have a visable market in Japan and Europe. But America is not clueless about it. We just dont care about it. Theres a difference. But again, the market dominance and general presence issue applies. Just because the technology may be superior or cheaper than something else, is irrelevant. Some would argue that Apple is superior to Windows, but it has virtually no market share. Betamax was superior to VHS, but it too, has no market share. And like Betamax, the original dialogue about this was that just because Sony makes it, doesnt mean consumers or industry will like it or adopt it.

MemoryStick-- yeah, it's got its problems, but it is just as proprietary as the SD protocol, and I don't see anyone b****ing about that. Anyways, the MemoryStick is used more than SmartMedia, and the last time I saw numbers, more than MMC/SD. Go figure.

Based on that logic, everything is proprietary, which I suppose it is. But thats not the point. The industry hasnt adopted this Sony technology like it has other formats. No one is b****ing about SD because it can be found in virtually everything these days. The point, once again, is that just because Sony makes it, doesnt guarantee success.

Personally, if Sony bought Palm I wouldn't be surprised...

Neither would I. :D

[paqman_lover]

I have several thoughts so please bare with me.

I don't see Apple buying Palm because it would take too much work to get the Palm OS updated to match PPC OS and also it doesn't make sense for one company to own 2 different OS's. It would be much easier if they marketed an Apple OS PDA.

Sony should buy the Palm to continue useing it for their PDA's because they would never use Microsofts'. It would be like Apple coming out with a Pocket PC, it seems almost heretical.

Sony needs something to counter Microsoft's XBOX. Microsoft is committed to makeing the xbox a success at the cost of all the other consoles. Reading about a month ago it appears that Microsoft was very close in buying Sega for cash which Sega would have used the cash to buy Square. With those two companies under it's belt Microsoft would have choked Sony's PS2 and probably Nintendo's Gamecube to death by making Sega and Square produce Xbox only games. Imagine Sonic the Hedgehog and the Final Fantasy series being exclusive Xbox games. Since that deal fell through Microsoft is looking for other publishers to buy.

Even if the xbox does not become the dominate video game console Microsoft plans on makeing it the center of a total home entertainment system. So it would become sony's ps2 that does nothing but play games and dvd's(poorly btw) to Microsoft's xbox that integrates everything into one box.

I'm sure Sony would put out many fine PDA's in the future but ultimately would fail at a mass market acceptence because Microsoft will continuely one up them until they falter and then Microsoft would bury them. Think IE vs. Netscape.

Also Sony would not cut the licenses off if they were smart because those companies would not let themselves be shut down, instead they would basically be forced into comeing out with cheap Pocket PC's. And that is something that kill any Palm OS PDA is a cheap pocket pc.

[scottmag]

OK, I'll jump in here. I think that it would be a terrible idea. Sony is primarily a media company, not a hardware/software company. Anything they build will necessarily have built in content restrictions. They would love to control the memory expansion market with their proprietary Memory Stick because they have a version with built-in copy prevention. They resisted the MP3 format for a long time on their digital devices in favor of their own proprietary audio format.

Sony has no track record in producing great software. Because they have added extensions to the PalmOS and shipped hardware with nice high-resolution screens hardly makes them the savior of the platform. I don't see much in the way of concern for usability in their products. Clies have inferior buttons to Palm's devices. Those wonderful high-resolution screens don't stand out at retail where they should blow away the low-res Palm sitting right next to the Clie, because there is nothing interesting to view pre-loaded on the device. A little poking around at a Clie will reveal a movie playing application, but there is nothing to watch. That's no way to sell a device at retail. At least the PocketPCs have colorful Today screens to attract the attention of potential buyers.

Sony is uninspiring in design other than the high-resolution and they will lose that advantage with PalmOS 5. They have shown no interest in producing great PalmOS software so why should we expect that they can suddenly take over development of the entire operating system and the core applications? Sony gets far more credit that they deserve and I for one think it would be a terrible idea for a media company to control the PalmOS.

Scott

[Jonathan1]

OK, I'll jump in here. I think that it would be a terrible idea. Sony is primarily a media company, not a hardware/software company. Anything they build will necessarily have built in content restrictions. They would love to control the memory expansion market with their proprietary Memory Stick because they have a version with built-in copy prevention. They resisted the MP3 format for a long time on their digital devices in favor of their own proprietary audio format.

Sony has no track record in producing great software. Because they have added extensions to the PalmOS and shipped hardware with nice high-resolution screens hardly makes them the savior of the platform. I don't see much in the way of concern for usability in their products. Clies have inferior buttons to Palm's devices. Those wonderful high-resolution screens don't stand out at retail where they should blow away the low-res Palm sitting right next to the Clie, because there is nothing interesting to view pre-loaded on the device. A little poking around at a Clie will reveal a movie playing application, but there is nothing to watch. That's no way to sell a device at retail. At least the PocketPCs have colorful Today screens to attract the attention of potential buyers.

Sony is uninspiring in design other than the high-resolution and they will lose that advantage with PalmOS 5. They have shown no interest in producing great PalmOS software so why should we expect that they can suddenly take over development of the entire operating system and the core applications? Sony gets far more credit that they deserve and I for one think it would be a terrible idea for a media company to control the PalmOS.

Scott

Again I have to disagree in the extreme. Let me look at what Sony products I have around my house.

Cybershot 707
DluxPro 18" flat panel
Had a Sony DVD NS505. Sold it for a Sony Progressive scan player.
Sony Picturebook C1VN. (Got it off of e-bay for a song)
Sony Bookshelf audio system.
Sony 36" TV planning on moving to the big leagues this fall with widescreen but I may consider other manufacturers.


IN each case I looked at all of my options but in the end I went with Sony. Why? Because their products are high quality, technologically advanced (My digicam has night freaking vision on it!), and has a rep of not failing. I've gone through may a Sony product in my time and to date I haven't had ANY problems with any of the products I've purchased from them. As far as I'm concerned this speaks volumes about their quality of product.

With that being said I think Sony is as arrogant as MS in their respective markets. When MS said they were going to throw their hat into the video game ring Sony, while they didn't do it outright, was scoffing at MS. You could see it in ANY inteview with Sony execs that brought up the subject of the XBox.

Finally in regards to their programming skills. The fact that Sony was able to "upgrade" the Palm OS in a round about way to allow audio, video and high res imaging without making the system unstable or ungainly to use, again, speaks volumes IMHO. You NEED to keep a few things in mind. Just like MS, Sony is such a freaking large company that software developed for products such as their CD burners or laptops isn't always developed by the same team, or even the same division, that works with the Palm. Example. Do you think the Windows or MS Office development teams had a thing to do with the Encarta or MapPoint? (Two of my fav pieces of software from ANY company.) NO!