Microsoft's share of the cell phone market in 2010 - 0%?

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://portals.devx.com/Brew/Article/6715">http://portals.devx.com/Brew/Article/6715</a><br /><br />According to the author, Symbian and Palm won't be doing much better. About the same actually - 0%. Stewart Alsop, a onetime editor-in-chief of PC industry newspaper InfoWorld, an entrepreneur, and a longtime PC industry pundit, puts more stock in <a href="http://www.qualcomm.com/brew/">Qualcomm's Brew</a>. Why is he so high on BREW?<br /><br />"The carrier gets a BREW server through which all its customers access, download, and pay for apps. Customers from Carrier A can't get apps from another server somewhere else, because everything is keyed to the carrier's own server and own handsets. The apps delivered through the BREW system are certified to work with those handsets, and the BREW delivery system can check the handset for proper con figuration - so BREW-delivered apps are unlikely to crash the phone. And the BREW billing system gives the carrier a share of the commerce going through their system."<br /><br />That's right! BREW ensures the carrier is not relegated to a dumb pipe, controls what apps you can buy, download and use. I don't know about you, but I am hoping that Microsoft, Symbian, Palm and probably two or three as yet uninvented operating systems squash this line of thinking. Can you imagine if what you installed and ran on your PC was controlled by the manufacturer, or if your internet experience was controlled by your ISP? Why, some of you might not get to read this fine web site! <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_wink.gif" /> Go read the article then come back and vote in the poll. I am curious to hear what you think. Source: Jimmy Dodd

[Steven Cedrone]

Ed,

I think the poll is broken, you can't vote......

Steve

[michael]

http://portals.devx.com/Brew/Article/6715
...or if your internet experience was controlled by your ISP?

That's pretty much what AOL do and they've been fairly successfull. Unfortunately most people will buy what they are told to. If a network tells consumers that these BREW phones are great and they have compelling content consumers will sign up for it. We'll complain that it's limited to content only from the network, but nobody will care because the mob has spoken and is happily buying what they are told to.

[DavidRoss]

I don't know about you, but I am hoping that Microsoft, Symbian, Palm and probably two or three as yet uninvented operating systems squash this line of thinking. Can you imagine if what you installed and ran on your PC was controlled by the manufacturer

Sounds a lot like what Robert X. Cringely is talking about over at I, Cringely with Microsoft's Palladium

Heres a quote, and a link is at the bottom.


"This is diabolical. If Microsoft is successful, Palladium will give Bill Gates a piece of every transaction of any type while at the same time marginalizing the work of any competitor who doesn't choose to be Palladium-compliant."

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20020627.html

[Ed Hansberry]

I think the poll is broken, you can't vote......Steve
Try again. People seem to be voting. There has been some server maint. going on and you might have voted at the wrong time. :)

[Inaki C]

I think the author is a *BIT* confused about what is an operating system, an application provider or an application environment.

Please, be informed before giving your public opinion.

[Elad Yakobowicz]

That's pretty much what AOL do and they've been fairly successfull. Unfortunately most people will buy what they are told to. If a network tells consumers that these BREW phones are great and they have compelling content consumers will sign up for it. We'll complain that it's limited to content only from the network, but nobody will care because the mob has spoken and is happily buying what they are told to.

I agree with Michael. "If you market it well - they will buy it" :?

[Ed Hansberry]

I think the author is a *BIT* confused about what is an operating system, an application provider or an application environment.
It doesn't matter. If your application providor is the sole providor allowed, what difference does it make what the OS is? I wouldn't want Smartphone 2002 if I could only get apps from my carrier. It is the model that is questionable, not the bits.

[Andy Sjostrom]

Well put, Ed.
This is a no-brainer. The Internet rules. Carriers will eventually become pipes. A mobile device connected to the Internet pull down what ever software / applications / data the user wants it to.

Internet, Internet, Internet
Windows, Windows, Windows

[Rob Alexander]

It could go either way. If the carriers and manufacturers all got behind it and marketed it properly, they may well be able to shift the market to a system like this. It wouldn't be easy as they'd be working against the momentum of the Internet, which people want to access from anywhere, but it's not impossible. I'd guess about a 30% chance of them pulling it off. One other thing to note is that the guy being interviewed, whatever his 'pundit' credentials, is now a venture capitalist with a significant financial investment in this technology. His opinion is just as objective as is that of the CEO of the company developing BREW.

[Kre]

Give it a year or two... no one will even know what Brew is.

[seeker]

There is far too much proprietary control by the Cellular providers at this time.

Anyone who can master the diversity of wireless systems and make the applications user friendly.... and market well.... will do very well in the market for the future.

[danmanmayer]

If i choose to download something less stable and my phone crashes that is my fault and i will deal with it. I won't deal with using a technology that pretty much killes opensouce and freeware development. I mean how else can i expect to get good software.

[Steven Cedrone]

If i choose to download something less stable and my phone crashes that is my fault and i will deal with it. I won't deal with using a technology that pretty much killes opensouce and freeware development. I mean how else can i expect to get good software.

With a little bit of luck, the SmartPhones will have a "Last Known Good Configuration" option for just such an emergency :wink:. Load crappy software and you can recover after the crash......Hey, why not!!!!!

Steve

[HR]

That could have been a valid proposition in the pre-Internet era. But now people have discovered and endorsed the model of the ISP as a supplier of a pipe to a universal network, where anyone has access, but no control, and competes for your attention/pocket/etc. No one will go back to the controlled subscription island model ever again.