View Full Version : Myopic Thinking
Jason Dunn
04-09-2002, 01:33 AM
<a href="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=7141#7141">http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=7141#7141</a><br /><br />I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.<br /><br />Does anyone <b>REALLY </b>think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.<br /><br />Right now the all-in-one solutions are clumsy, first generation units that have major sacrifices on both sides (Pocket PC 2002 Phone Edition included). Give it a few generations, and the concept of a phone that only does calls will be as passe as a PDA that only does PIM. The market as a whole has to evolve, but look back at the way cell phone use went. Ten years ago, if I would have said "In ten years, <i>everyone</i> will be using cell phones, even ten year old kids!" I would have been laughed at. In the early 90's, cell phones were clunky, had horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and were very expensive. Why on earth would "everyone" be using them? Only the "elite" had them - people who were willing to put up with the costs and sacrifices of owning one.<br /><br />Society evolves, and what we value changes over time - right now being in touch 24/7 is something we not only value, it's something we thrive upon (I know some people who don't even have land lines). Once cell phones hit critical mass with enough people having them (so there were people you knew you could call), at the right price point, the right size/battery life, and most important of all the right pricing plan from carriers, use exploded. Now it's odd to NOT find someone who doesn't have a cell phone. <br /><br />Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.<br /><br />"But Jason, all people want to do is talk." Sure, NOW that's all they want to do - but that's the same concept that led Palm to think that people would only ever want black and white PIM. Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly. Until that happens, we get to enjoy watching it all unfold before our eyes - no one is going to get it right on the first try, but to assume that the evolution we're seeing is a dead end is naive.
Duncan
04-09-2002, 02:44 AM
Yes - agreed! The device of the future will be neither PDA nor Phone - it will whatever emerges from the stumbling attempts to cross fertilise. The only thing I know for sure is that, whatever they look like (and whatever they do, I want one!
jeffmckean
04-09-2002, 03:07 AM
When things are difficult and expensive, they tend not to be done.
This is today's wireless data access.
When things are easy and cheap, they tend to be included.
This is tomorrow's wireless data access.
Now, to have a wireless PDA tends to be difficult and expensive.
But, if it were cheap and easy, would you not do it?
Imagine a new computer today that did not include a modem or an Ethernet port. Would you not wonder over this?
Yet there was a time where this was normal and expected. It is no longer this way.
To get to where we are today, there were many stumbles and missteps. Many approaches were tried and now lie forgotten beside the road.
But, we came up with a solution that works.
Now, it is a matter of enduring the stumbles and missteps on the way to wireless. What is going to work? I don't think anyone knows yet.
But people still try. Those who try and are not afraid to fail will eventually win. Those who try to preserve the status quo will eventually be consumed.
The failures are instructive.
Does the future lie in a dedicated mobile phone; one that is only a phone? Not entirely. They will still be available but comprise a shrinking share of the market. It may still be measured in the billions, but it will decline.
Greater functionality is included in all phones now. At some point, it will be a range of gradations rather than a clear division. Maybe if you take devices from each end of the spectrum, the differences will be clear. Side by side, less so.
Maybe Nokia and Ericsson and the rest of the Symbian alliance do have reason to be worried. The software and hardware solutions from Microsoft and TI (and RIM for that matter) may provide a means for a second-or-third tier maker (or a previously non-existent maker) to leapfrog into the first tier.
Wireless phone and data communications as just another service on a highly functional device? I think that will happen and be increasingly seen as 'normal.' At some point, like a modem or Ethernet today, it will be seen as indispensable.
There is no reason that a device could not be engineered that would have a software-defined radio capable of 802.11, GSM/GPRS, CDMA/1x as well as Bluetooth. Even now, Nokia is marketing a card that provides 802.11 and GSM/GPRS. Will this not become integral at some point?
eric linsley
04-09-2002, 04:11 AM
ive said this before "maybe not here"
but i thnk the future of cell ohnoes and pdas are very well reflected todays scifi tv shows especialy Earth : final conflict
in the show thay have essnetialy cell phones/ micor computers with built in cameras that give a live feed for video conferencng
it has a flexible display that roels up into a lot like a tape measuree does
and it has tremenodus inforamtion ability
i thnk this is fantatstic and a nice logical step
the flexibel display especily
and if techonology like the holgrahic keyboards that exst now start to get intergrated into devices "awsome" items like seikos new link pen "awseome" you wil realy see a new devie on the market
now as usualy this is your horid spelling compusa pda guru Eric linsley sighning off
" its nice that the palm is smaller, cheaper and overall easier to operate
but so is my tricyle.
and there is no way in h311 im taking that to work" :twisted:
OK - I hate web-based message boards. I just spent a long time writing up this mission statement a la Jerry Maguire just to have my session expire when I tried to preview it. Message lost.
The gist of my message was this (about 10% of it!):
"Revolutionary devices are rare - it will take years for the wireless PDA and cell phone to merge into a device that people will want and use constantly."
At the risk of being flamed, I believe the first revolutionary device has already arrived... and it isn't based on WinCE. The Handspring Treo is everything a modern smartphone should be - small, fast, easy to use, with a great data input mechanism, and 13,000 existing applications.
I have owned an iPaq for 2 years, and before that I had 4 Palms and a Palm PC (that was pure hell... 4 batteries a DAY) I am a huge fan of the PocketPC but am largely disappointed in Microsoft's attempt in the smartphone space.
PocketPC Phone Edition is too big. It will never reach critical mass - it will be for techies and geeks for as long as it is still around. And SmartPhone 2002 is even worse - who wants to use 0-9 to type an email message to their mother? Talk about painful. Not to mention the fact that there ZERO applications available, eVB doesn't support it, and it can't leverage any of the existing PocketPC applications or games.
Handspring got the hard part right - the user experience - 3 click dialing, mini-keyboard, small form factor, trendy design, great built-in software. They don't have color, 200mhz, or MP3 capabilities (yet) but they have revolutionized the hybrid concept which is what is important for 95% of the potential buyers out there. I firmly believe this is the device to beat in this space having used it for a month now. I haven't picked up my iPaq since, as much as I still love it. There is just no need for it.
I still loathe the PalmOS. But the benefits of a small, easy to use, all in one device far outweight the pain. Once PalmOS 5 rolls out and the Treo can mimic the screen and functionality of the Sony Clie on a faster processor, there will be no advantage to a Microsoft solution. Why buy a Sendo Z100 if there are no applications for it and it takes 30 minutes to type "I am coming home at 8". Or a PPC PE that can barely fit in your pocket?
Handspring just got it right. Sure, it is inevitable that they will be copied, but this device is simply beautiful. It is ultimately a GREAT phone, a GREAT organizer and a GREAT wireless data device. The only thing it lacks is multimedia, arguably the least important of the four. But for now, I am just about satisfied. Until next year at least.
Mike
Tycho Morgan
04-09-2002, 04:32 AM
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=7141#7141
I was reading the comments to Andy's last post, and my reply turned into a front-page-worthy rant. Make sure you read Andy's post and the comments or this won't make as much sense.
Does anyone REALLY think in ten years we'll have both PDAs and cell phones? No way. We'll have a device that will let us communicate with others, be it voice, text messages, or video. The form factor is an unknown (I personally think it will be smaller than a Pocket PC but bigger than a current cell phone), but the evolution towards a unified device is occurring, and I believe it will win out in the end over single-function devices.
I read that, and I think in some wierd disjointed way, you've inspired a front page thought!!! Stay tuned.
Cheers,
Sam
jeffmckean
04-09-2002, 04:45 AM
I think the Treo is very cool too, but... they didn't launch with GPRS,(hopefully fixed soon) and after a first infatuation, I've come into contact with more and more Treos that looked worn and with creaking covers (after just a few weeks of use).
I don't think it's revolutionary, just evolutionary; and the same can be said for the Pocket PC Phone Edition. The difference is that I think PPC/PE is evolving on a completely different plane and ultimately in the right direction.
The form factor can and probably will be changed or adopted in different ways. But the ultimate guts of the device, and the software, are far superior to a Palm OS based device.
And, (I'm speaking of the HTC/O2/T-Mobile device here) it feels pretty good and looks great. I haven't seen one with a lot of use yet. And it fits in a shirt pocket without making the pocket stick out very much! The Treo is much thicker and I just can't come to terms with that flip cover. I can hold the HTC device between my ear and shoulder and I don't dare do that with the Treo.
Just my opinion. I think there's room for both. :D
Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive. Only the digital elite have PDAs - and we put up with sacrifices and high costs to own them. They're not very common in most social circles. See a pattern here? If you look at the market now, the average user doesn't need or want a "smart" phone - they're focused on voice communication. But guess what? In ten years, the fifteen year old kid who lives and breathes email, chat, and web is twenty-five, and he doesn't give up digital lifestyle when he's on the move . It doesn't matter if he's a corporate lawyer or working at a 7-11 - it's part of his lifestyle, and he'll grow up expecting to have devices that let him continue that lifestyle.
I'm not sure how many people will want to e-mail, IM, video conference, and web browse on the move. All of those things require you to look at the screen. When I'm on the move, I'm generally moving, looking where I'm going, and doing things. I can talk on a phone while doing any of that, but I can't send out an e-mail.
I can definitely see a day where such all in one communicators are popular, but they'll never be as popular as cell phones. They just aren't as practical, regardless of cost.
Jeff
Yeah - there is definitely room for both. I haven't played with any of the PPC/PE devices, so all I am going on is the screenshots. Like I said, I am a huge PPC fan and I 100% agree with you that the "guts" is far superior to the PalmOS.
I dont think MS has failed, I think it is the OEMs that just aren't getting it. I love the OS with a passion (which is why I am on this site 100x a day!) but the way the devices are "thrown together" just doesn't make sense to me. Handspring took a different approach, similar to the Pilot. They really analyzed how people will use this thing and viola, a simple, small device. And ultimately, the fact that they didn't launch with GPRS isn't a bad thing, it is either they launch without it or they don't launch at all! No fault of their own - luckily it is just a software upgrade.
I have had my Treo for about a month now and it still looks brand new. Not that it always will, but I have had no wear-and-tear issues at all. Honestly, the form factor is the closest thing to a "normal" phone AND a "normal" PDA that exists IMHO. With PPC and SP2002, it is either one or the other. A "normal" PDA that acts like a phone, or a "normal" phone that has minimal PDA capabilities.
I am amazed that some of the PPC/PE are thinner than the Treo which feels really slim to me. But the sacrifice is that the screen is unprotected, which is a big annoyance.
Of the two - PPC/PE and SmartPhone 2002, I think PPC/PE is probably the one with the most potential - it is just the form factor and price that MS OEMs have always had a hard time with!
Give me a color Treo with PPC/PE optimized for the jog dial and keyboard and I will be in heaven.
Mike
"I can definitely see a day where such all in one communicators are popular, but they'll never be as popular as cell phones. They just aren't as practical, regardless of cost."
But what if the device looked and functioned like a phone 99% of the time. And that 1% of the time that you are waiting in your car for your girlfriend to finish doing her hair, you could check to see if your Amazon order shipped, or get directions to dinner. If price isn't an issue, which it won't be eventually, wouldn't you rather have the best of both but optimized for the features you use the most?
Mike
JonathanWardRogers
04-09-2002, 05:18 AM
I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that our devices ten years from now will not resemble (neither asthetically, nor functionally) the devices we use today.
Bluetooth is just the forerunner of modular computing. Take headsets, for example. Up until very recently, it was necessary to have two headsets for your phone and your PDA. Now, I can get one device that will work with both, and giving me an external mic for my Pocket PC - a curious and unfortunate omission from all Windows CE devices.
I would guess, seeing as how bluetooth is merely the first inA a series of improving wireless protocols, that our devices in ten years will be of this nature:
Ignore the abbreviations - they're just because I'm a lazy typist suffering from excessive TLA syndrome.
A Processing Unit (PU) - perhaps a small box that you carry in your pocket or on your belt. This would consist of only the CPU, GPU, <insert newest wireless protocol (NWP) here> controller.
A Display Unit (DU) - built in to glassess (or maybe OLED contacts). This connects via <NWP> to the PU, receiving the image data.
A communications module - would handle communications via 3(4?5?)G transmission/reception, relaying to/from the PU
The Power Unit (PwrU) - this would (as far as current technology is concerned) be the only piece of your device that would still need a wire, or one could just have batteries in different modules.
Storage Devices (SD) - why limit yourself to what can fit in a given form factor? How about a CF card reader that you can fit in your other pocket? Or a CD-R drive sitting at your desk?
Various Input Devices (InD) - keyboard, mouse, touchscreen (would also be a DU).
Of course, these are only a poor guess at what we might have, but you can see the point: rarely is a device exactly what a user needs. But with this kind of modularization, one person could carry around a PU, InD and an HMD, whereas another person would only carry around the PU, using the in dash auto computer for the interface via speech/speech recognition.
The point is that once short range wireless communication reaches a high enough bandwidth and low enough power, our current divisions/convergences - however much they make sense to us now - may mean little in ten years.
I'd love to have a device I kept in my pocket that interfaced with my glasses, headset, watch, car stereo, Desktop/Tablet PC, etc., etc... That way I would only have one place to store all of my information, and it would be available to me in many different ways, depending upon what is best/most preferrable in the given situation.
Or think of it this way: I would much rather spend my money on a great display, keyboard and mouse (or whatever takes the place of them - pupil tracking?), than on a powerful processor. I don't play enough games to care that much about processing power. But I do love to read, program, learn languages and the like. It is inconvienient for the consumer to tie the pieces together.
Oh, sure, there will still be "PDA"s and "cell phone"s, but they will merely be a package of certain modules. The Tablet PC form factor is a step in that direction, being - at once - a desktop, a tablet and a laptop, depending upon the peripherals attached. Ok, I've rambled on long enough. That's my vision of the near (ten years from now) future. Of course, I could (read "probably will") be all wrong. But if I'm not... :o
Kilmerr
04-09-2002, 05:27 AM
Progress always forward I agree, but I think the passive and interactive modes still play. A uber-all-in-one device, is ideal. But that assumes that everyone wants a communicative device. Some people use their computers and devices for things off-net. People do like passive.
It is all information anyways, wireless is just the delivery method. I think the future is less utopian Sci-Fi mumbo jumbo 'merger of devices' and much more varied. Interactive TV has been in this mode, but then people just wanted to 'watch' hence passive, tho things may change. Ultimate device? That really depends on the person. Some people will want a data + voice device, others simply data. Room for both. Data is impersonal and less direct, people will always want some form of human contact. Not a dead end, but not Star Trek either. But there is gonna be a whole lotta roadkill on the evolutionary highway, sotospeak.
jeffmckean
04-09-2002, 05:31 AM
Mike, I agree. And, of course, the Treos I've seen have been in the hands of complete power users (they probably never let go of the device!)
I think if you go to pocketpcwriter.net, Arne has a very good review of the O2 unit and compares it size-wise to other devices. It is pretty thin, but you are right, the unprotected screen could be an issue.
I betcha somebody, at some point, makes a flip-type PPC/PE that will address a lot of the issues. And just like flip (or clamshell) phones vs. non-flip, there will be choices for everyone.
Or we'll be doomed to increasingly weird-looking Nokias that mysteriously don't do tri-band. :D
I have said that before and will say this again:
Everyone is talking about one single device that somehow caters to all tastes in the world. But this rarely happens. Look at TVs: small TVs big TVs, back-projection TVs. Look at stereos: micro stereos, mini-systems, big systems, audio systems, home theatre. Look at cars: sedans, minivans, sports cars, coupes, SUVs, SUV hybrids. You must conclude that there are always variations on the theme. Companies launch a variety of products that cater to many different preferences.
Hence, I do not see asingle type of PDA, ie some hybrid phone-PDA. There will be some which are better at being phones with PDA functions, but there will be some with bigger screen that will be more of a wireless PDA with a phone function built-in, but secondary it terms of usability.
Terry
04-09-2002, 06:55 AM
My wife still uses a paper planner...an inexpensive stationery store version...not an expensive, fancy-schmancy Franklin planner either...
When we both need to write down appointments, she's finished in about 5 seconds...I take a minute or two on my Jornada.
She carries her cell phone (plain 'ol Nokia, always off), a numeric pager (outstanding battery life), and her planner in her purse. And I honestly must say, she's much more efficient than me!!
So I think the real solution will be unisex purses.
OTOH, I suspect that as wirless companies offer PDA/Phone devices for a monthly fee, we'll see great adoption, even if people don't use all the features. There's a grand opportunity for the wireless folks to sell e-mail and web access for a few bucks a month more.
FredMurphy
04-09-2002, 11:02 AM
I don't think there will ever be a device that suits everyone or performs all tasks. In MY opinion any device with a big enough screen to be a useful PDA will be too big to be dumped in my pocket 24 hours a day and ignored like a phone. And it would have a screen that a touch too small to watch movie on the plane/bus/tube. Others may (and I'm sure will) have different requirements and opinions.
Bluetooth (or rather its successor) has got to be the way to go. Carry as many devices as you think you'll need that day and let them work as one.
Even now I always carry my T68 but will leave the Jornada at home if I'm going out on the beers and think I may lose it. If you could cram all the functionality of the Jornada (and more) into the T68 and I'd still complain about the tiny screen.
Fred
riverbruce
04-09-2002, 02:20 PM
mit4... my sentiments EXACTLY. I too have transitioned from the Ipaq to the Treo and am absolutley satisfied. However I have not arrived at the place where I "loathe the Palm OS." Instead I have become quite intriqued by it. Anyway, I don't visit some of the pocket pc sites as often as I used to (3 or 4 times a day) but happened by this thread today and had to chime in.
A satisfied Treo user!
At the risk of being flamed, I believe the first revolutionary device has already arrived... and it isn't based on WinCE. The Handspring Treo is everything a modern smartphone should be - small, fast, easy to use, with a great data input mechanism, and 13,000 existing applications.
I have owned an iPaq for 2 years, and before that I had 4 Palms and a Palm PC (that was pure hell... 4 batteries a DAY) I am a huge fan of the PocketPC but am largely disappointed in Microsoft's attempt in the smartphone space.
PocketPC Phone Edition is too big. It will never reach critical mass - it will be for techies and geeks for as long as it is still around. And SmartPhone 2002 is even worse - who wants to use 0-9 to type an email message to their mother? Talk about painful. Not to mention the fact that there ZERO applications available, eVB doesn't support it, and it can't leverage any of the existing PocketPC applications or games.
Handspring got the hard part right - the user experience - 3 click dialing, mini-keyboard, small form factor, trendy design, great built-in software. They don't have color, 200mhz, or MP3 capabilities (yet) but they have revolutionized the hybrid concept which is what is important for 95% of the potential buyers out there. I firmly believe this is the device to beat in this space having used it for a month now. I haven't picked up my iPaq since, as much as I still love it. There is just no need for it.
I still loathe the PalmOS. But the benefits of a small, easy to use, all in one device far outweight the pain. Once PalmOS 5 rolls out and the Treo can mimic the screen and functionality of the Sony Clie on a faster processor, there will be no advantage to a Microsoft solution. Why buy a Sendo Z100 if there are no applications for it and it takes 30 minutes to type "I am coming home at 8". Or a PPC PE that can barely fit in your pocket?
Handspring just got it right. Sure, it is inevitable that they will be copied, but this device is simply beautiful. It is ultimately a GREAT phone, a GREAT organizer and a GREAT wireless data device. The only thing it lacks is multimedia, arguably the least important of the four. But for now, I am just about satisfied. Until next year at least.
Mike
Aceze
04-09-2002, 03:30 PM
So I think the real solution will be unisex purses.
I can just see it now... "It's not a purse, it's European!!"
Personally, I cant wait for a time when PDAs (or whatever they will become) transition from outside the body, to inside the body. No more energy problems, data fed directly to the optic nerves, etc.
Also, many people have this misconception that the "best" things win out in the war for public mindspace and success. That's not true at all. What will win out is the product that will make the most money for its producer and achieve a higher market penetration than its competition.
Aceze
eric linsley
04-09-2002, 06:15 PM
i have heard tons of great reviews about the trio
what about the other sombo devices
how does the kyceroca and the new samsung phoones fair?
has anyone tried the new 2002 phones?
i realy want to get a good comparison
i personaly think comparing the current pda/cellphone devices to pdaas is like comparing apples to oranges palms to pocket pcs, cat s to dogs.... he he..
realy i would love to here about the other devices and why
yes you can use you phone as a palm.
but is that the only reason why you like for less to carry?
i personaly can twait till they start deveoping mroe assecories for these devices. nad that is osmehting that i do find important.
i have had many customers absolutely regret getting one device or another because they didnt have cradels, batteris , keybaords and other things readly avialable instores.
well lets get some commetns on what is out there and perosnal comairosn with more detial of why things are better over another
"yes palm is generaly cheaper and smaller than most pocket pc, and so is my old tricycle to my car. like wise im nevre going to take either one to my work". :twisted:
Jason, Speaking of Myopia! The Handspring Treo is here today and it is the futrure. I agree with mit4's sentiments perfectly. And Jason if you are not suffering from Myopia, why don't you prove it by obtaining a TREO and putting it through its paces for a few weeks. If you do I am certain it will cure your Myopic thinking.
If anyone is inerested in reading more on why the Treo is so much better than the PPC and Smartphone please go to the following.
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=77
Jason, also speaking of Myopia, you repeated yourself twice in this post when you said "Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive."
Jason Dunn
04-09-2002, 07:58 PM
OK - I hate web-based message boards. I just spent a long time writing up this mission statement a la Jerry Maguire just to have my session expire when I tried to preview it. Message lost.
Are you perchance not opting to auto-login? That seems to be the problem - I never time out, even after hours, because I let the auto-login thing do the trick. :-)
Jason Dunn
04-09-2002, 08:14 PM
I can definitely see a day where such all in one communicators are popular, but they'll never be as popular as cell phones. They just aren't as practical, regardless of cost.
Respectfully, this is exactly what my post was about - the people who say "never" don't have a sense of history in the world of technology. :wink:
Jason Dunn
04-09-2002, 08:23 PM
And SmartPhone 2002 is even worse - who wants to use 0-9 to type an email message to their mother?
Tell that to the millions of people in Europe who are sending billions of SMS messages every year. I personally don't use SMS, but there's an entire generation of people growing up who can punch out 30 words a minute on a phone keypad. I think this statement is a little naive. :-)
and it can't leverage any of the existing PocketPC applications or games.
I've talked to some developers who have ported their Pocket PC games very easily, so I don't know how true this statement is.
Jason Dunn
04-09-2002, 09:11 PM
The Handspring Treo is here today and it is the futrure. I agree with mit4's sentiments perfectly. And Jason if you are not suffering from Myopia, why don't you prove it by obtaining a TREO and putting it through its paces for a few weeks. If you do I am certain it will cure your Myopic thinking.
Jake my boy, no need to get excited. I didn't insult the Treo in any way on purpose - I merely pointed out that 1st generation devices, whether they're the Treo or the 02 XDA, have compromises because they're new - they all have to go through an evolution into something that the mass market will want. I don't think ANY PDA with wireless integration is mass-market friendly right now. If you're saying that the Treo is perfect and has no flaws, well, I think you're suffering from a little Myopia. :-)
Regarding proving things to you, I don't have to do that. I haven't seen a Treo, nor are they available in my area, but I am interested in using one. Will I drop $500 to do so just to make you feel better? No. I honestly don't think the Treo can even be activated in my area - I haven't seen any cell provider offering it. Another classic 1st generation problem.
If anyone is inerested in reading more on why the Treo is so much better than the PPC and Smartphone please go to the following.
Jake, you feel burned by Microsoft because they didn't decide to adopt your "Bullet Train" interface. You feel burned by me because I didn't want to create a forum for the Treo despite your insistance that my site should be about "cool mobile devices". I'm pleased that you're enjoying your Treo, but don't get upset if I don't agree with you that the Treo is the best thing since oxygen - I really don't have that much an opinion on the Treo. In fact, I don't even MENTION it in the post - yet here you are getting all upset.
Jason, also speaking of Myopia, you repeated yourself twice in this post when you said "Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive."
I double checked, and I don't see what you're talking about. If you're referring to these two lines:
"In the early 90's, cell phones were clunky, had horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and were very expensive."
"Right now, wireless PDAs are clunky, have horrible battery life, spit out enough radiation to kill a horse, and are very expensive."
You'll notice that one like says cell phones, and the other says wireless PDAs. I repeated the elements to reinforce my point that people said the same thing years ago about cell phones - I'm sorry that you missed that. :roll:
mike6024
04-10-2002, 03:33 AM
:lol: Ah Jason, you crack me up. I must say, you da man. But anyway...
Personally, I cant wait for a time when PDAs (or whatever they will become) transition from outside the body, to inside the body. No more energy problems, data fed directly to the optic nerves, etc.
So when your WinCE 9.0 LegPC crashes, what's going to be the reset button?!?
I'm not sure how many people will want to e-mail, IM, video conference, and web browse on the move. All of those things require you to look at the screen. When I'm on the move, I'm generally moving, looking where I'm going, and doing things. I can talk on a phone while doing any of that, but I can't send out an e-mail.
Being "on the move" doesn't always mean moving mind you. When I had my Casio E-125 and cell phone modem, I would send out emails or surf while waiting in line somewhere or in traffic. Maybe chat through AIM or watch a movie while I was bored when I was out of the house "on the move." And then of course there's the times where I use my PPC *while* I'm driving down the highway, but I won't get into that...
Jason,
I would like to begin by saying that I have a tremendous amount of respect for what you have built with PocketPC Thoughts. My objective in sharing my thoughts with you and the PPC Thoughts community is to share insight. Insight by definition, being a shift in boundaries.
By the way today’s Quote of the day, which you asked me to remove you from because you are to busy to gain valuable insight was “Have a mind that is open to everything, and attached to nothing.” This quote was said by Tilopa a thousand years ago. I think this quote is perfectly on point for you in this situation.
The reason I got my first real PDA which was a Palm 3 was because I wanted a tool to help me stay organized and thus be more effective. When I switched over to the Pocket PC it was much more of a toy. I spent forever and a day tweaking my Pocket PC which in the final analysis was not only a waste of precious time but really a bunch of aggravating mental masturbation.
And if you still don’t get it, witness Jeff Kirvin’s Thought on your page where he talks about how much time he has wasted. His experience—which he posted—perfectly illustrates what I mean when I say useless mental masturbation:
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=817
I strongly believe that the Treo represents a profound inflection point in the PDA and Phone world. I believe the Treo is the PPC/Smartphone killer. I think the Stinger/smartphone is a complete joke. I think Microsoft’s best bet is with the PPC, but in order to make it useful they need to copy several key Treo features. I just don’t think there is any way around it.
I think in order for a Pocket PC product to be able to JUST compete with Treo it would have to have a much smaller form factor, a QWERTY Keyboard, a see through screen protector, and a more effective UI.
As far as me being bitter toward Microsoft for not getting “Bullet Train” you could not be more correct. The best source on insight is from your customers—the people who spend their hard earned money on your products. Microsoft just does not get it because they are too busy trying to take over the world—but that is a different discussion perhaps for a different day.
My final point is that the writing is on the wall and there are red flags all over the place. What is the saying? If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it is probably a duck. I respect and understand your decision not to have a forum for the Treo, but respectfully disagree. I think that the one thing that the vast majority of people who come to your site have in common is not a profound affinity for the PocketPC but instead a profound desire for the best tool possible.
The bottom line is that I feel so liberated with the Treo it is incredible! Before when I had my iPaq and Nokia 8290 I felt like Batman with a heavy utility belt that always made me feel bogged down. With the Treo I feel like Superman.
Best Regards,
Jake
P.S. If anyone wants to read more about why I believe the Treo is a Pocket PC killer, please goto:
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=77
Aceze
04-10-2002, 04:57 AM
Personally, I cant wait for a time when PDAs (or whatever they will become) transition from outside the body, to inside the body. No more energy problems, data fed directly to the optic nerves, etc.
So when your WinCE 9.0 LegPC crashes, what's going to be the reset button?!?
Aha! When YOUR WinCE 9.0 LegPC crashes - you get to discuss it with your boss - but when my RedShoe Linux v12 keeps on going for months/years, I'll err be working. Hmm... maybe I should dual boot just to be able to slack off from work once in a while... :)
Aceze
ps. Jake - could you _please_ lower the font size in your other rather long rant on the Treo vs PocketPC.
I personally don't use SMS, but there's an entire generation of people growing up who can punch out 30 words a minute on a phone keypad. I think this statement is a little naive.
I don't think so. The question ultimately comes down to the user experience - if they had a better input mechanism available to them, they would be able to punch out 65 words a minute. And their repetitive stress injuries would thank them profusely.
"I've talked to some developers who have ported their Pocket PC games very easily, so I don't know how true this statement is."
That shouldn't be too difficult, you're right. I guess the question is, do you want to wait until everyone ports their applications or would you rather have all the applications available with no thought given as to whether there is a SmartPhone version available? How annoying is the different processor versioning problem WinCE has already had to deal with, now couple that with yet another form factor. And the lack of eVB support.
As silly as PalmOS seems to PPC power users, you have to admit it is pretty compelling to have apps like Documents To Go, UltraSoft Money, and thousands of other apps (AvantGo, Vindigo, AIM, Acrobat Reader, Palm Reader, etc) work immediately, and not have to wait 6 months until they are ported to another platform. And like I said, Microsoft may have the right strategy with PPC/PE. IMHO, I just don't think Stinger rises to the challenge (yet).
This is almost funny, because if anyone I knew were to read this thread they would think I was suffering from MPD. Coming from someone who has sold a company to Microsoft and has fully supported every move they have made since 1985 or so, it sounds odd even to me that I am saying they didn't get this right.
But it doesn't matter in the long-run. It is a looooong fight and they will iterate quicker than anyone out there and fix the problems. And again, the problem isn't so much in the OS, it's in the phones that support it. And that is where the Treo has it locked down - for now.
Again, just my opinion. Once I put away the stylus and started using the keyboard to send emails from the beach, and SMS's from the bike at the gym, I was hooked.
Mike
I strongly believe that the Treo represents a profound inflection point in the PDA and Phone world. I believe the Treo is the PPC/Smartphone killer. I think the Stinger/smartphone is a complete joke. I think Microsoft’s best bet is with the PPC, but in order to make it useful they need to copy several key Treo features. I just don’t think there is any way around it.
I think in order for a Pocket PC product to be able to JUST compete with Treo it would have to have a much smaller form factor, a QWERTY Keyboard, a see through screen protector, and a more effective UI.
I have to agree with this. I don't think the Treo is IT but it is definitely a "profound inflection point" and the closest thing we have, and probably the closest thing we will have for quite some time (12-18 months?)
Maybe Microsoft should move into the cell phone hardware biz. I owned a Microsoft Cordless Phone for a while, and it was pretty decent :) I would love to see a Microsoft branded cell phone - at least then they could leverage a great OS.
Unfortunately for MS, the OEMs do have a lot to learn from the Treo - if only they take the hint and don't wait 3 years to get it right again.
Mike
mit4 and riverbruce,
It is great to find somebody who agrees with me on the Treo. It sounds like you had a very similar experience. Did you read my post on the Treo being the PPC killer?
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=77
I mean, being able to schedule an appointment in the datebook application while having a telephone conversation with the same person in real time is amazing! That is real mutitasking!!!
What do you think?
Chubbergott
04-10-2002, 04:40 PM
I mean, being able to schedule an appointment in the datebook application while having a telephone conversation with the same person in real time is amazing! That is real mutitasking!!!
Yes, in the four months that I've been using my Nokia Communicator, such functionality has proved useful, multitasking indeed.....
And when I had my E115 PocketPC and a cellphone, that was multiprocessing!
Jason Dunn
04-11-2002, 04:25 PM
By the way today’s Quote of the day, which you asked me to remove you from because you are to busy to gain valuable insight was “Have a mind that is open to everything, and attached to nothing.”
Too busy to gain insight? More like "Sick of constant spam" - I never asked to be put on your list. Regarding having an open mind, can your open mind accept the fact that others have decided that instead of floating around the sky on a parachute, it's better to hit the ground, plant roots, and build up a foundation? This applies to many facets of life, so stop and think about it for a minute before responding. Each person must make their own choice, but don't slag me for having made a choice. 8)
I strongly believe that the Treo represents a profound inflection point in the PDA and Phone world. I believe the Treo is the PPC/Smartphone killer. I think the Stinger/smartphone is a complete joke.
I don't disagree that it's a slick device (although I haven't used one yet), but I find it odd that you find the Smartphone 2002 a "complete joke" when it hasn't shipped yet. How can you judge something you've never used? Sounds like your parachute is a little jammed there Jake. :roll:
As far as me being bitter toward Microsoft for not getting “Bullet Train” you could not be more correct. The best source on insight is from your customers—the people who spend their hard earned money on your products. Microsoft just does not get it because they are too busy trying to take over the world...
Jake, and I'm trying to say this kindly, has it occurred to you that perhaps your idea simply wasn't a good one? I was in the room when your concepts were passed around, and to be blunt, no one in the room liked it. Now either the fifteen or so people (both Microsoft people and MVPs, along with Dale Coffing and William Roll, both of which were members of the Pocket PC community at large) who live, eat and breathe mobile devices were all idiots, or maybe, just maybe, your concept was too cluttered and chaotic. :? Not every idea is automatically a good one - I've certainly had some bad ones in my time. :D
I think that the one thing that the vast majority of people who come to your site have in common is not a profound affinity for the PocketPC but instead a profound desire for the best tool possible.
Then all those people can go to PDABuzz. :-) I made a decision when I registered the URL that this site would be about Pocket PCs. It woldn't be a PDA neutral site - it would be a site that picked a side and stuck with it.
If I happened to get a Treo or some new Symbian device that changed my life, I'd shut this site down and start a new one before I'd dillute my branding by mixing two concepts together.
Foundation Jake, foundation.
Jason Dunn
04-11-2002, 04:29 PM
I don't think so. The question ultimately comes down to the user experience - if they had a better input mechanism available to them, they would be able to punch out 65 words a minute. And their repetitive stress injuries would thank them profusely.
Ah, but there's a threshold here - the Treo is too big for the chic Euro cell phone crowd. These people like their phones TINY - and how small can you shrink a keyboard? There is NO perfect input method that involves a keyboard - NONE. Each one involves trade-offs in size (Treo) vs. speed and ease of us (T9 on a phone). There's no magical answer here guys, despite your love of the Treo.
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