HD-DVD May Be Dropped by Toshiba

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ib77125d96b22e86027d0bfb0c25aa58d' target='_blank'>http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr...7d0bfb0c25aa58d</a><br /><br /></div><em>&quot;The format war has turned into a format death watch. Toshiba is widely expected to pull the plug on its HD DVD format sometime in the coming weeks, reliable industry sources say, after a rash of retail defections that followed Warner Home Video's announcement in early January that it would support only the rival Blu-ray Disc format after May. Officially, no decision has been made, insists Jodi Sally, vp of marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products. &quot;Based on its technological advancements, we continue to believe HD DVD is the best format for consumers, given the value and consistent quality inherent in our player offerings,&quot; she said. But she hinted that something's in the air. &quot;Given the market developments in the past month,&quot; she said, &quot;Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players.&quot; Immediately after the Warner announcement, the HD DVD North American Promotional Group canceled its Consumer Electronics Show presentation. The following week, data collected by the NPD Group revealed Blu-ray took in 93% of all hardware sales for that week.&quot;</em><br /><br /><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/500/dht/auto/1203086999.usr1.jpg" alt="" /><br /><br />So <em>this</em> is what all those Betamax owners felt like in the '80s. I've never backed an unsuccessful technology format before, so it's a strange feeling knowing that HD-DVD is all but dead. It was the superior format in almost every way, but just like the VHS vs. Beta battles of yore, it didn't have the marketing muscle or industry support to win out in the end. Oh well. I only bought six or so HD-DVDs, so it's not like my investment was huge - and as long as my Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive keeps working, I have a place to play them. I imagine by 2009 we'll see dual-format HD players around $150 or so, so there's a path for those of use with HD-DVD content. In the meantime, if you have an Xbox 360, it's tough to beat the price of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-360-HD-DVD-Player/dp/B000JHO4L0/ref=pd_bbs_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=videogames&amp;qid=1203087215&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank">$119 for the HD-DVD drive</a> with six free movies total - hell, you won't find many HD-DVD discs for $19 USD each, but that's what it works out to, and you get a free player to boot.

[onlydarksets]

I imagine by 2009 we'll see dual-format HD players around $150 or so, so there's a path for those of use with HD-DVD content.

Why do you think we would see anything supporting HD-DVD? Just curious, since, if it's dead, it's dead, right?

[marlof]

Well... a good thing that I waited until war is over.

About those videotapes: we had the choice out of three, Betamax, VHS and Video 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_2000). Chances of picking the wrong one were pretty high in those days. Happily, at that time I couldn't afford a videorecorder. :D

[Jeff_R]

And with the Wal-Mart announcement, that is the final nail in the coffin, and it's an enormous one. First and foremost, I feel sorry for the HD-DVD purchasers. On the Blu camp, there was irritation at seeing announced titles yanked away from us (Transformers, anyone?), but that sort of thing pales in comparison to having a dead-end library, and I know there are probably some people out there staring at hundreds of HD-DVDs on their shelf with a thousand yard stare.

However, I'm definitely not surprised. I personally chose Blu-ray when choices were to be made, based simply on studio support, and at the end of the day, that's what I think was the deciding factor. For example, in any home video battle, Disney is a big gorilla when it's time to pick sides, and I just couldn't see HD-DVD coming out ahead, based on which studios were siding where. Personally, I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that HD-DVD was superior in nearly every way, but even if that were true, it still wouldn't have mattered if the studios didn't back it, and the right ones didn't, which is why the numbers were so lopsided once Blu-ray hit the market.

Hopefully, the lesson learned by the industry (and I'm speaking as a working member of that industry) will be that consumers don't like format wars, rather than a look at Blu-ray and Betamax with the thought "Hey, may as well roll the dice... Sony batted .500!"

Can you imagine the hassles when VOD starts to become a significant market and all you need to have your own "standard" is do a codec which may not work on your competitor's box? Ugh...

[jeffd]

why do you say superior in every way? Blueray easily atleast had the disc space thing nailed down. ^^

IMO either format gets what they deserve. If HDDVD started out at $119 a drive, i'm sure it would be number one now. Both are sides are greedy, and so I won't have an HD disc player until final fantasy 13 comes out and I'm forced to buy one. ^^

[Chris Gohlke]

On the bright side, I'll probably be able to pick up some HD movies dirt cheap in the near future. The ST-TOS ones are dual disk, so I can probably get those cheap and then sell my other set.

[onlydarksets]

You can change the title now:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20080216/tc_pcworld/142579

It's not "dropped", but they've stopped developing players for it. They are expected to take losses in the tens of billions of dollars. That's gotta smart!

[mar2k]

And to think that if Warner had gone into the HD DVD camp instead of Blu-Ray we might be starting up a Blu-Ray death watch about now...

This is a sad day for consumers. Consumers get more expensive players, half-baked interactive/special features, poorly thought out non-standardized hardware specs, and the sickening feeling looking back that they let the better format die.

The studios get their wish... bigger and badder DRM.

[Jeff_R]

Not to get into a protracted debate, but Warner on its own couldn't have killed Blu-ray, and definitely not in anything approaching this time frame. Paramount/Dreamworks left Blu-ray and the impact on sales splits was negligible, despite it being an immediate cancellation, including pulling titles that were about to be released. Warner, on the other hand, left HD-DVD, and planned to release HD-DVD until the end of May, and yet that killed HD-DVD at an unbelievable speed. The sales splits immediately after were 93% Blu-ray. If Warner had gone HD-DVD only, it just would have drawn this all out even longer, and the outcome would still have been uncertain. The fact that a single studio's defection killed HD-DVD almost instantly, from a corporate point of view, makes it pretty plain that HD-DVD was on life-support already.

As to the rest of your post, mar2k, I disagree with it on just about every point, but hey, there's not much point in debating it now, I suppose. People look for different things in their media standards, and in this case, whatever the reasons are, Blu-ray did a better job of targeting (or creating a perception of) those needs, whether it was better studio support, the PS3 factor, more advertising, a preference amongst consumers for the colour blue, who the heck knows?

The only things that I think everyone can agree on is that 1) the format war needed to end and 2) it's a ridiculous shame we had one in the first place, for precisely this reason; there's always going to be people who feel betrayed.

[bluemax]

After the Sony Root Kit I don't think I would ever trust anything made by or according to Sony specifications. I certainly wouldn't connect it to my network or put one in any PC that had anything I cared about.

Even still, Blue-Ray is a specification in transition. They are still mucking around with firmware to the point where some early adopters now have players that won't show newer content.

Some people are looking at Video over IP as the strong horse in this race. This will only give the entertainment bosses what they really want - (and I've said it before) making you pay every time you watch.

You're right, DRM is a greed thing. It's also a paranoia thing. They think someone has copied their precious movies without paying them = everyone is copying their precious movies without paying them.

Let's face it, copyright is completely out of control. The clothing industry has been known for it's fantastic and prolific innovation for decades. Now, they want to be able to copyright their designs. So we'll get something like you can get red t-shirts only at Target because they have a copyright on red t-shirts.

Bill B

[Jeff_R]

I think eventually, we'll definitely have Video over IP, but we're a ways away from it yet. We don't even have 100% broadband coverage in North America, and next to no one has sufficient residential bandwidth to watch HD in real time. And I'm not talking about the pseudo-HD that's being touted now for XBox Live and iTunes. 10-20% of the video bitrate of Blu-ray will not get the job done; the quality comparisons show that the HD stuff downloaded is roughly equivalent to standard DVD, depending on source. So I think, this round, Blu-ray is the clear winner, and the results will be less than the win for standard DVD, but nowhere near the disaster of SACD or DVD-Audio.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next round is Video over IP. But they'll lose a ton of money on me if they go a "pay per viewing" model. I own 1300+ DVDs and Blu-rays, and some of them I haven't watched. Some are special editions I bought after buying a standard edition (when Matrix is released on Blu-ray, it'll probably be the 4th (!) version of that film that I own!). I pay about $20-$25 on average for a DVD, and if you assume about a $5 charge for watching VOD, there are bloody few movies I'm going to watch 4 or 5 times. It might not be as great a model as they think (or, it might not be a model they want as much as some consumers think they do.) Eventually? Yes, I think we'll download nearly every media format. But we've got a long way to go in terms of bandwidth and storage space before we're there.

[Jason Dunn]

Why do you think we would see anything supporting HD-DVD? Just curious, since, if it's dead, it's dead, right?

Hundreds of thousands of HD-DVD discs have been sold, and it will be a competitive advantage for any Blu-ray player to be able to player HD-DVD discs. Unlike Betamax and VHS, there's no technical reason why the players can't read both.

[Jason Dunn]

...and Video 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_2000).

Wow. I've never even heard of that one! :confused:

[Jason Dunn]

why do you say superior in every way? Blueray easily atleast had the disc space thing nailed down. ^^

Blu-ray had more space, yes. HD-DVD had the better name/brand, cheaper disc manufacturing, better technology for interactive features (it was quick and easy to program for, unlike Blu-ray which required Java programming), the players didn't seem to have the firmware/compatibility problems that Blu-ray had, less expensive players (less complicated to make), the quality was better on first generation discs...take your pick.

Blu-ray had better studio support - that's really the main advantage it had, but in the end, that's the advantage that mattered the most...

[Jason Dunn]

On the bright side, I'll probably be able to pick up some HD movies dirt cheap in the near future.

Indeed, that's quite true! I'll be watching for them...

[Jason Dunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if the next round is Video over IP. But they'll lose a ton of money on me if they go a "pay per viewing" model.

I'm in the same boat as you - I own about 600 DVDs and enjoy having a library of content...I will *not* accept a purely PPV model.

DVDs are going to be around for a lot longer than the studios want them to be...most people I show an HD-DVD to can't even TELL it's HD compared to a regular DVD that's up-scaled properly. :rolleyes:

[onlydarksets]

Hundreds of thousands of HD-DVD discs have been sold, and it will be a competitive advantage for any Blu-ray player to be able to player HD-DVD discs. Unlike Betamax and VHS, there's no technical reason why the players can't read both.

I wouldn't count on that. Over 1 BILLION DVDs are sold every year. 500,000 HD-DVDs is statistically insignificant, especially when you are the only game in town.

[Jason Dunn]

I wouldn't count on that. Over 1 BILLION DVDs are sold every year. 500,000 HD-DVDs is statistically insignificant, especially when you are the only game in town.

I'm counting on the fact that the DVD player market is brutally cut-throat, and if having dual compatibility means they charge even $25, trust me, they'll do it.