Post CES: State of The Format War

[Jeremy Charette]

<p>&nbsp;</p><p><img border="0" alt="" src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/500/dht/auto/1200034657.usr17787.jpg" /></p><p>The past week sure has been interesting.&nbsp; Before CES even opened, Warner Home Video <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/04/warner-goes-blu-ray-exclusive">fired a shot across the bow</a> of HD DVD by declaring that they would be going Blu-Ray Exclusive in mid-2008.&nbsp; New Line Cinema <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/05/new-line-confirms-itll-follow-in-warners-blu-footsteps/">followed suit</a> shortly thereafter, along with <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/10/hbo-hops-on-bandwagon-also-going-blu-ray-exclusive/">HBO</a>.&nbsp; Even adult film studio Digital Playground <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/08/ps3-owners-demand-porn-digital-playground-steps-up-to-the-plate/">went Blu this week</a>.&nbsp; Meanwhile some are saying that Universal's HD DVD exclusivity contract has expired, and they may be soon going Blu-Ray exclusive, which they have <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/10/universal-current-plan-is-to-continue-to-support-the-hd-dvd-fo/">categorically denied</a>.&nbsp; Further speculation says that Paramount may be looking to use an <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/09/sources-say-universal-and-paramount-are-both-going-blu/">out-clause</a> to leave HD DVD for Blu-Ray as well, which they have also <a href="http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/08/paramount-current-plan-is-to-support-the-hd-dvd-format-curre/">denied</a>.&nbsp; CEOs from the major big box retailers see the format coming to an end soon, <a href="http://www.news.com/8301-13860_3-9846074-56.html?tag=nefd.top">but still plan to support and sell both formats</a> for the near future.</p><p>So where does this leave us, the consumers?&nbsp; Well, no better off really.&nbsp; The stalemate continues.&nbsp; Two major studios are still supporting HD DVD, as well as countless porn studios (for whatever that's worth).&nbsp; Michael Bay is <a href="http://www.shootfortheedit.com/forum/showthread.php?p=9716#post9716">still shooting his mouth</a> off about things he doesn't understand.&nbsp; Ironically enough, BOTH formats are still losing to Xbox Live Video Marketplace, which this week <a href="http://www.xbox.com/en-US/community/news/2008/0106-LiveCESNews.htm">signed ABC and MGM</a> to its roster of over 35 studios and networks.&nbsp; This already includes Disney and Warner, which are Blu-Ray exclusive.&nbsp; So either way, HD DVD or Blu-Ray, Microsoft still wins.&nbsp; Me, I'm hoping HD DVD pulls out the win in the end.&nbsp; Lowest cost, most stable spec, and just as good technically as Blu-Ray.&nbsp; Though even I gotta admit, that's looking less and less likely.&nbsp; What do you think?</p>

[Stinger]

I know three people who bought the HD-DVD add-on for their Xbox 360. 2 have sold their drive since hearing the news about Warner Bros. swtiching sides. The other one is still debating whether to sell his.

Have they jumped the gun? I don't but it looks like the tipping point is getting closer. If you look at the studios vs. sales, 66% of the market is now Blu Ray exclusive with 25% HD-DVD exclusive. If I was part of that 25% I would certainly be looking at switching sides.

Universal/Paramount may be denying that they're going Blu Ray exclusive, but that's a given. No sensible business gives away their strategic plans before they need to.

Two major studios are still supporting HD DVD, as well as countless porn studios (for whatever that's worth).

I don't think the porn industry matters much these days. The porn industry have been very quick to embrace the digital, internet age.

I haven't invested in either standard yet. I was determined to wait until there was a "winner". It looks like I might be buying a Blu Ray player (or a PS3) in the next year based on the recent news.

[Jason Dunn]

I was hoping HD-DVD would "win", but it's looking like Blu-ray will pull out the victory. It's kind of like VHS: worse technically, but had a bigger marketing budget and more partners, so it beat out the beta (HD-DVD) player. I guess Sony didn't want a repeat of the past. :rolleyes:

I'm glad I haven't invested much in HD-DVDs...though I strongly suspect my next DVD player will play both HD formats.

[Jeremy Charette]

There's been talk of rolling HD DVD compatibility into the Blu-Ray spec, if the HD DVD consortium concedes defeat. Makes sense to me, though I'm not sure if there are any hardware compatibility problems. If it's just software, it shouldn't be difficult to do. No reason to alienate all those HD DVD owners, and it would help Blu-Ray convert quite a few consumers.

I've been considering upgrading my HTPC with an HD disc drive, but I'm still hedging my bets and looking at LG's dual-format drive. I've already got a bunch of HD DVD discs and I have no desire to replace them with Blu-Ray copies.

[Chris Gohlke]

Rolling in compatibility would be a great step towards bringing us HD-DVD earlier adopters into the fold. I've only bought about 10 movies on HD-DVD, but have rented a bunch. I figure there will probably be a firesale on some titles so I might pick up some more.

Get a Blu Ray player down to $199 that will play HD-DVD's and release LOTR on HD and I'll be good to go.

[randalllewis]

While I was hoping for an HD DVD win because I hate to see Sony rewarded for its nasty habit of creating unneeded competing formats, in the end I really don't care.

As I suspect is the case with the vast majority of consumers, this is one new bit of tech that I will take a long time to get around to adopting. Regular DVD's look very good on my upscaling player and my 42 inch HDTV. A bigger TV would be a waste of money and an uncomfortable use of my family room and thus the utility of a new format of DVD is very limited. I could care less about watching a movie scene from different camera angles and none of the other features of higher def DVD are very compelling. I have a huge investment in regular DVD and having junked a similarly large collection of VHS for DVD, it would take a similarly significant improvement in quality and features to get me to make a change.

[onlydarksets]

I know three people who bought the HD-DVD add-on for their Xbox 360. 2 have sold their drive since hearing the news about Warner Bros. swtiching sides. The other one is still debating whether to sell his.

Add me to the list. I'm shipping mine back tomorrow.

[Jason Dunn]

Regular DVD's look very good on my upscaling player and my 42 inch HDTV.

And that, ultimately, is why BOTH HD formats are going to fail. No one is going to adopt either of the new HD disc formats over regular DVD because they do not meet the 10x rule of thumb for improvement over the current format. I love the way HD-DVDs look on my TV, but regular DVDs look pretty darn good as well...and most of my friends can't tell the difference between HD-DVD and regular DVDs (upscaled) unless I were to do A/B tests to show them the difference.

If Blu-ray "wins" it will be simply from slowly replacing DVDs in the market, which will take 5+ years. There's no "victory" here for either camp. Like you, I have a huge investment in DVDs and will not be selling them at a garage sale for 25 cents each like I did with my VHS tapes.

There is simply no physical format that will replace DVDs.

[onlydarksets]

That's an excellent point. On my 47" 1080p, I notice it's sharper, but not by leaps and bounds. My hi-def DVD watching will be via rental (as my DVD-watching has been for the past 2 years), so I'm not really worried about the investment in media. I just am not chomping at the bit like I was for DVD, because, as you say, the value-add just isn't there.