Rob Enderle: Blu-Ray Has Lost

[Jeremy Charette]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml' target='_blank'>http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml</a><br /><br /></div><i>"I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game."</i><br /><br /><img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/hd-dvd-blu-ray.jpg" /><br /><br />The high points: Sony gambled on the PS3, and ended up late and over-priced. HD-DVD will be the first to $200, and volume sales won't happen until then. And if volume sales don't happen before the end of this year, both formats will lose to alternatives (downloadable content and upscaling players). Sound familiar? It should, since it's what Felix Torres and I have been saying for the last, oh, 6 months or so. I wonder if Rob reads our site? :lol:

[Felix Torres]

So, should we set up our technical analysis firm and charge real money for our opinions instead of pricing them at their true value? :wink:

I've never been a fan of the gentleman's opinions so I find it...disturbing...to be on the same side, for once.
Maybe its time to start buying into BD...

[Outlaw94]

I like the part that says "it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game".

Has this guy ever looked at anything Sony has ever done. Don't get me wrong, I like their stuff. It looks amazing and is always top quality. But come on... they are always more expensive than he alternative. They always price themselfs out of the game until someone comes in offering something similar for a more reasonable price.

[Jeremy Charette]

So, should we set up our technical analysis firm and charge real money for our opinions instead of pricing them at their true value? :wink:

Let's do that. I'm incredibly well connected here in New York City.

[Vincent Ferrari]

If Rob Enderle said the sky was blue, I'd look up :-)

[randalllewis]

Did I read that right? This famous "analyst" made his recommendations and comments WITHOUT knowing the cost of Blu Ray technology!?!?!? Isn't that one of the basic facts one might need to offer an informed opinion. Geez. It obviously doesn't take a lot of skill to be an "analyst." Can I join your firm?

[Felix Torres]

He's got me wondering if I've missed something... :?

I mean, he's got several good points, especially about BD's lack of relevance to the PC data storage business, which was a given when BD was first announced and is now a joke.

And the point about how the studio execs have to be worried about the slow ramp-up for both HD-on-disk formats is significant. In Hollywood, two years is an eternity in an exec's career so the pressure is now on the execs to show some kind of return on their commitment to the tech. Especially in the face of the growing revenues from online rentals. Not that the two techs compete at the consumer level but they do compete at the corporate level for mastering resources. So its not out of the question that some of the big BD players might switch sides or just plain drop out of the contest altogether. And Disney is the most logical candidate, since they're already tasting the fruit of Video Marketplace...

As I said, scary...

[Felix Torres]

Did I read that right? This famous "analyst" made his recommendations and comments WITHOUT knowing the cost of Blu Ray technology!?!?!? Isn't that one of the basic facts one might need to offer an informed opinion. Geez. It obviously doesn't take a lot of skill to be an "analyst." Can I join your firm?

1- Those costs have been publicly known for two years, now:
($0.50 per HD-DVD disk and $2 per BD disk); &lt;$100 for HD-DVD drives, $2-300 for BD
2- Time Warner *listened* to him; and they should've known those costs upfront. Then again, these are the same guys that sold the company to to AOL for a handful of magic beans...

[Felix Torres]

On the other hand, here is a slightly more thoughtful and conservative ( :twisted: ) appraisal of the format war.
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9689600

These folks think the *economic* benefits of HDi will win the war.