News Flash! HD DVD and Blu-Ray Finally Beat...VHS

[Jeremy Charette]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/33302/98/' target='_blank'>http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/33302/98/</a><br /><br /></div><i>"According to a research piece from trade publication Video Business, sales of Blu-ray Discs and HD DVDs combined in the first half of 2007 beat VHS. During the last six months of 2006, the now-archaic format was still edging out the high definition newcomers. By 2005, VHS's market share in the home video market had fallen to around 15%, and has continued to fall ever since. Blu-ray and HD DVD overtaking the dying format was more or less expected, but through the end of 2006 the high-def competitors were still behind."</i><br /><br /><img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/istockphoto_2531143_films_format_vhs_dvd.jpg" /><br /><br />Amazing. A format over 30 years old, and vastly inferior in every way, was <i>just recently</i> overtaken by the combined sales of both high-def disc formats. This, after years of development, and marketing campaigns in the tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars. The "HD war" has to be the biggest failure in the entertainment industry since the Laserdisc.

[Felix Torres]

The "HD war" has to be the biggest failure in the entertainment industry since the Laserdisc.

Now, now...
Let's not be hasty. :wink:

I'm as skeptical of the FUD coming from both camps in the war and all that, but let's all remember; its only been a year or so since both formats became available at all.

What nobody is paying attention to in the media, on this, is consumers.
Simply put, consumers are unwilling to spend more on HD-DVD than on DVD. They're buying emtertainment time, not resolution. So until the prices come down (and we *are* in a price war) most folks will simply sit and wait for the player to hit $100 or so and the movies to be generally available at under $20.

I think we *might* see some action by XMAS but the year explosion won't come until 09. Around March or so...
Think about it...

[Jeremy Charette]

I'm not sure it'll even come that fast. DVD resolution, particularly on HD TVs, is pretty good. Not quite HD, but on the typical un-adjusted, un-calibrated, straight from the box HD set, not far off. Like I've said before, it's not as big of a jump as VHS to DVD, or Cassette to CD; therefore people aren't willing to pay a premium for it.

When the price becomes competitive with DVD, it will start selling en masse. The discs will have to be $10-15 each, and the players will have to hit $100-150. Consumers have already shown they aren't willing to pay a 100%, or even 50% premium for HD. Even 20% might be pushing it.

I'm with you Felix, 2009 at the earliest. And even that might be optimistic. If Blu-Ray or HD DVD can break double digit market penetration (10%+) by the end of 2008, I'll be surprised.

[Jeff_R]

It might be a little unfair to slam the uptake speed. Bear in mind that there are people out there who still own 8-track machines. Not LPs, 8-tracks! To be honest, considering how many people still own VHS, I'm impressed that Blu-ray and HD-DVD have passed the old tape. Ah, VHS, we hardly knew ye... :wink:

[Jeremy Charette]

(Edited: Forgot to put in the link to the original article.)

[denivan]

A good point to see if it will catch on is if your grandparents can see the difference.

My grandparents have gotten a dvd player because on their tv set it's a noticable difference in quality, especially if you see the same thing (a documentary on dvd for instance) over and over again, on VHS the quality would go down every time you watch.

If I show my grandmother an upscaled dvd on my lcd tv and later on an hd dvd movie, she wouldn't see any difference at all, so why would she switch ?

As lang as there is no need (like it has been pointed out very well above, people don't need resolution, they need entertainment), it won't catch on.

I also don't see rental stores switching over, they're still recovering from dumping their vhs stock, and now they should switch over again ?