Microsoft: We Will Turn Tide of High-Def DVD Format War!

[Jeremy Charette]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.tvpredictions.com/microsofthd071607.htm' target='_blank'>http://www.tvpredictions.com/microsofthd071607.htm</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Microsoft will be the difference in the high-def format war between HD DVD and rival Blu-ray. That's according to...Microsoft. Kevin Collins, Microsoft's "HD DVD evangelism director," tells TWICE magazine that the company's HDi interactive technology built into new HD DVD players will entice high-def owners to embrace the format. HDi enables viewers to re-edit movies, download trailers and participate in online polls among other activities. The interactive features will be found in new HD DVD discs that will take advantage of the player's Internet connection. "When the first titles with Web-enabled extras come to market, you will start to see the distinct disparity between the formats when it comes to interactivity," Collins told TWICE."</i><br /><br /><img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/steele3th.jpg" /><br /><br />I respectfully disagree. While I do believe HD DVD will win, I think it will be on price, not on features. While bonus features and interactivity are nice, consumers are not willing to spend more money for them. High definition resolution may be a draw, but the jump in picture quality from DVD to HD is not nearly as dramatic as the transition from VHS to DVD. Good upscaling DVD players can nearly match the PQ of both HD formats, at a much lower price. Until one of the HD formats begins to compete with DVD on price, or at least get very close to it, neither is going to see widespread adoption. The real question we should be asking is: why are the studios and hardware manufacturers pushing HD? Because "we" want it? No. Because it gives them a reason to charge us more.

[jeffd]

I think you need a new tv. ^^ I think HD is easily equal in increased quality from vhs. Infact for years now, ive been unable to get sharp looking dvd's on my computers. HD video is finally actually sharp!

[RichL]

I still have reservations whether either format will win.

Just look how the next generation of audio discs is doing: Two competing formats (SACD/DVD-A). An existing format that's good enough for most consumers and is largely DRM free. Neither format has taken off and the parallels are striking.

Enthusiasts will always buy into new technologies but I really wonder whether either HD format will make the leap into the majority of consumer living rooms. I agree that price, not features, is likely to be the deciding factor.

[Felix Torres]

I respectfully disagree. While I do believe HD DVD will win, I think it will be on price, not on features.

I don't necessarily disagree with you; the hearts and minds of mass buyers *will* be determined by price. But...
...first, at least one of the competing products has to *get* to mainstream prices...
...and maintain the pricing lead long enough for it to matter.
What happens if both products manage to get there at the same time and stay in lockstep for any period of time?
Its a price war, you know.
Price *could* be a wash...

At that point, I see three main differentiators:

1- DRM: BD clearly has the more intrusive DRM and, on paper, more severely limits what consumers can do with the product

2- Content; as long as some content is only available in one format, that format will be necessary to view that content (downloads can and do mute that advantage). Of course, the real gatekeeper here is Disney; Sony's library, while respectable, doesn't have the must-haves of disney or Warner. (I can do without Ghostbusters and Bond if I have to.)

3- Critical reviews. And here's where it gets interesting. If the Consumer's Union's of the world start paying attention to the interactivity features or if the university campuses adopt HD-DVD as the prefered format for the Film-related curriculae (the re-editing feature looks made to order for that purpose; especially if PC-based software lets you "master" a lower-res version of the re-edit project for non-interactive viewing), then the buzz will change from: "BD (or HD-DVD) will win. Because I said so..." To "critics and reviewers generally prefer..."

It is good to see the war get beyond Sony's smoke and mirrors percentages campaign to real differences between the disk formats. In real world usage the difference between 30Gb (or 45) and 50Gb is a non-issue; the only encoding format where it makes a difference is MPEG2 and the market already spoke on that, so that leaves studios to use VC1 or H.264 and neitther is the space hogg that *requires* 50Gb for anything practical. If the pricing stays the same and content exclusivity vanishes or proves insufficient to crown a winner, then maybe we will see a stalemate.

Big ifs...

But at that point, the Differences in DRM and interactivity will come into play. DRM plays to one audience, the studios, but interactivity plays to an, ahem "critical" sub-set of the consumer audience; the higher-end buyer. It might build from filmographers and critics to movie buffs to mainstream consumers. That last leap is a doozy, though; laservision never quite mastered it and lost out to VHS. So I don't think its a given that interactivity can make up for other market shortcomings.

Basically, it takes a prolonged stalemate.
*Then* you could see this happen.
And, of course, MS has been playing the game to produce an early stalemate, to allow time for the market to find alternatives to BD; HD-DVD, downloads, streaming, or possibly the great hope of mass storage; holographic storage. Anything that denies BD a quick win is good in Microsoft's eyes.

Conventional wisdom holds that the chasm between movie buffs and mainstream buyers is too big and that winning one does not win the other. But then, conventional wisdom also says PS3 buyers should be buying BD films in droves instead of merely renting them.

Maybe things will be different in the HD era...

[pradike]

I also agree that HD DVDV will win the war - not because of anything Microsoft does overall (although the interactive features are a good thing), but based on 3 things:

1) Price (equipment and HD media)
2) Title availability (numbers of them and the selection)
3) Did I mention price? :P

At the end of the day, what made DVD a successful format is when players dropped below $200 and disks below $15. Now there are 40 Million DVD players out there.

Toshiba has been smart enough to figure this out early on, which is why they sold 70,000 HD DVD players in a little over a month, while the Blu Ray player sales were about 11,000 the same period.

Now that the number of titles is virtually even, and both formats have "blockbusters" to offer, target #2 above is not going to be much of a factor.

That leaves #1 and #3 (yes, they are the same).

I predict that when either format's player(s) sells mainstream below $200, you'll see the Walmarts of the world and others selling tons of them, and the "war" will be pretty much over.