HD-DVD vs. BlueRay - The Winner is... Perhaps Neither

[Damion Chaplin]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/archives/016346.html' target='_blank'>http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/archives/016346.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"While some enthusiasts are calling the market for HD-DVD, it's not quite clear to me that these folks are correct. I say this as an enthusiast (believe me, I've bought gadgets in the past you've never even heard of) and this thing doesn't pass my second law of consumer electronics. Unlike some of our colleagues at other firms, who have called a winner, then changed their prediction and then changed it again, we haven't said who think will win the war for HiDef optical disks. That's because what the analysis we see in the data we collect tells us consumers aren't that interested."</i><br /><br /> <img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/MDGBreakfast-thumb.jpg" /> <br /><span>The path to new format success</span><br /><br />The key step to consumers adopting a new format, according to Michael Gartenberg, is "visible consumer value proposition". Basically, he says consumers may not be interested because the step up from DVD to an HD format is less visible than, say, the step from cassette to CD was. Until consumers can look at the product and say "That's clearly better than what I've currently got," said product will have a hard time making it. I'm not sure that's really the case here though. The industry is obviously moving toward HD formats, and with the PS3 and XBox, HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to creep their way into many peoples' living rooms anyway. And once someone's got an HD-capable player, they're going to start buying HD formats to play on them (or at least hybrids). What do you think? Are both formats doomed because they're just not 'better enough', or do you think at least one format is here to stay?

[Felix Torres]

What do you think? Are both formats doomed because they're just not 'better enough', or do you think at least one format is here to stay?

Eventually *something* will emerge as the delivery vehicle for HD video content. But whether that vehicle proves to be HD-DVD, BD-ROM, DVD 2.x, online distribution or something else is unclear. Its too early to call the war for Hd-DVD now, just as it was too early to call it for BD-ROM last fall.

This one is going into XMAS 07, at a minimum.

But I do think that eventually something will emerge, simply because HD displays are for real and there is money to be made selling movies and TV series in a format that allows those displays to show off their full capability.

Things we need to see:

1- Can PS3 save BD-ROM?
2- Can Sony actually deliver 50GB multilayer BD-ROMs in time to save BD-ROM?
3- Can HD-DVD move off the current P4 architecture to a true CE hardware platform fast enough to capitalize on their current slight lead on BD-ROM?
4- Which format will bite the bullet first and drop the prices to DVD levels?
5- What will the studios do if one or both formats is still struggling in 07?
6- Will anybody try to launch a red-laser HD format in North America in 07?
7- Is holographic storage as close to market as they say it is?
8- Will wesley ever discover Stella is cheating on him with...uh, sorry, wrong Soap opera summary... :wink:

[ploeg]

Pushing equipment into people's living rooms will get you only so far if there's a continuing format war, especially if the console that you choose has a reputation for crapping out (not to name any names...). You might go rent high-definition movies, but how much are you really going to invest in the format if you're not rock-solid certain that the format or the console box are going to be functional in five years?

Mr. Gartenberg is quite correct in all particulars. There is currently as much of a mass market for Blu-ray or HD-DVD as there is for $90 HDMI cables (that is, not at all). A market for these formats might develop in a few years, as the equipment matures and becomes less expensive, the movie libraries grow, and consumers purchase the large HDTV sets that can take full advantage of these formats. But by that time, it is as likely as not that something else will come up that consumers will prefer to either of these formats.

And contrary to what Felix says, the alternative does not have to be true high definition. Consumers will certainly acquire sets that are capable of displaying high-definition images over time. It is not obvious that true high-definition images will be desirable in all cases. For sports, yes. For movies, there is the possibility that, after the initial novelty wears off, people will start getting sick of having the ability to see Cameron's cosmetic flaws and pick out Arnie's stunt double in Terminator movies. Granted, the studios will want to push high definition so that they can resell their movies to us, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the public will agree to buy them.

[Phoenix]

And the HDTV ingredient is indeed the biggest barrier to entry into the world of HiDef DVD's. Going from cassette to CD and from VHS to DVD only required a new player. But HD requires you to have a brand new TV and cables as well, which, although prices are dropping, are still very expensive.

HiDef DVD's won't find mass market until a format winner emerges, prices for everything drop, and most everyone owns HDTV's. And for most people to own HDTV's, naturally, prices are going to have to drop... a lot.