Official 360 Numbers Bad and Good

[Jeremy Charette]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/xbox-360/official-360-numbers-bad-and-good-151206.php' target='_blank'>http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/xbox-360/official-360-numbers-bad-and-good-151206.php</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Some Xbox news came out in today’s earnings announcement from Microsoft. Here’s the stuff you care about: About 1.5 million Xbox 360s were sold from Nov. 22 to Dec. 21, with 900,000 consoles in North America, 500,000 in Europe and 100,000 in Japan. Wow, that’s shockingly bad, especially in Japan. Msoft puts the blame squarely on the shoulders of shortages. Maybe this is why no one likes to do “global launches.” On the plus side for Msoft, the attach rate was amazingly high. In other words, people bought lots of games for their 360s. The rate was more than four per console and accessories were more than three per console. And we know that’s where the real money is. Since the launch of the Xbox 360, people have downloaded 4 million things from Live. Many of those things likely cost money, though there’s tons of free stuff on Live as well."</i><br /><br /> <img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/SGRCoreSku.jpg" /> <br /><br />While the official numbers for Microsoft's global Xbox 360 launch underwhelmed analysts and investors, I think it was a complete success. All of the hype about shortages continues to generate press for the 360, and there's no such thing as bad press. On top of that Microsoft beat Sony and Nintendo to market by more than a year (if rumors of a Winter '06 PS3 launch are to be believed). Given the high attach rate for games and accessories, I think Microsoft can capitalize on that first to market advantage in the long run, with an expected customer base of over 5 million users before the PS3 arrives. Now Microsoft just needs to supply more content, and I don't just mean games. Hopefully part of their digital home convergence strategy includes downloadable movies and music via. the 360.

[Felix Torres]

Bad and good indeed.
Even Sony has to be upset with those numbers. ;-)

Published reports about-post shake-up Sony were that they were waiting to see if the 360 was a success or failure to set the PS3 launch date: if the 360 bombed they would push it back to '07 and keep on milking the PS2; if it was a runaway success, they would dump the BD-ROM drive and rush their box out the door.

With these numbers they can't help but be conflicted; they don't know if the MS component availability issues are temporary or enduring, yet the high attach rate and the quality of the 360 make delay risky. As is, a certain percentage of the market is frozen, waiting to see what the PS3 can deliver. Once Sony ships, the FUD factor goes away.
If Sony ships with their traditional shipping pattern, one big splash followed by a shortage they might catch MS still struggling to meet demand but they could also find themselves facing a flood of 360's rolling into the unlocked market just as they deal with their own traditional rolling shortages of consoles and games. And of course, if they wait until they can avoid those issues, they risk launching right in the teeth of the second wave of 360 games, as well as giving MS too much of a rolling start in the market, especially with MS having the dual sku strategy in place.

The name of the game is still "first to 10 million" but Sony is starting from a more precarious position since they are fighting multiple money-losing fights (blue laser wars, HDTV-catch up, digital music wars, etc) and they can't afford too many losses buying market share any more than they can afford to let either MS or Toshiba or both beat them in their respective wars.

MS made their move and it was a hit but not a homerun.
The game is on: Now its time to see which way Sony goes...

I'm guessing the Winter 06 launch is very likely, unless they drop BD-ROM (possible, since Toshiba already got to $499 with their low-end HD-DVD player, so "PS3 as cheap BD-ROM" is hardly compelling); it lets them keep the gaming market frozen til next year by launching late this year. In fact, maybe they'll hit NorthAm *before* Japan to better try to blunt the 360 Xmas sales.
Going to be tricky for them, no matter what, cause they can afford a slight delay but they absolutely can't afford a dud.

Not when MS can still get to $199 and 10 million 360's this year if they really want it.

[Darius Wey]

I'm still waiting for mine. Microsoft (Down Under Division) decided to push the release date (http://www.xbox.com/en-AU/community/news/2006/0127-newANZlaunchdates.htm) from March 2nd to March 23rd due to "unprecedented global consumer demand and short-term manufacturing issues".

While I'm a little pissed off about the three week delay, I'm willing to sit through it knowing (or hoping?) that Microsoft is doing what's necessary to provide adequate supply on launch. Demand here in Australia and New Zealand jumped when retailers started accepting pre-orders, and I guess all that is a testament to just how successful the Xbox 360 really is.