ZDNet: Zune Has No Chance

[Aaron Roma]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=3950' target='_blank'>http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=3950</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>&quot;Microsoft's Zune music player has little or no chance of denting Apple's iPod juggernaut and contrary to all the digital ink spilled on product comparisons and reviews most of the reasons are strategic. Apple has built up quite a moat around its iPod business. Bottom line: Even if Microsoft's Zune is just a first volley it has a tough road ahead.&quot;</em> </p><p> </p><p>ZDNet blogger Larry Dignan offers up a pretty harsh opinion on Zune's chances of making a dent in the iPod juggernaut. He presents several arguments which basically all boil down to this: Apple has too big a market share and brand name. While this is a valid argument, there are plenty of examples that show this is far from bullet-proof, especially where Microsoft is involved. Need proof? Just ask Netscape, Palm, or Sony. Obviously these past examples don't mean that Zune is a shoo-in, but it does show that it's a bit naive to assume that iPod's dominance is so complete that there can be no true competition. However there is no mistaking that the Zune is going to have a long, hard road ahead, and Microsoft better not pull any punches.</p><p>What do you think Microsoft will need to do to pull market share?</p>

[gshocker]

I think the things that Zune has going for it are -

Subscription service - Something that users of the iTunes service have asked for over and over again and apple keeps saying no.. or really that no one really wants it.

Redownload options - Again something that iTunes users have a problem with. If they know I purchased it why can't I have it again? The 5 times that Zune offers is great.. of course you should still backup your purchased music but we all know how that goes.

Music Catalog - For launch they do have a rather extensive library of music. I have found many things that I was unable to purchase on iTunes that I can now grab from my Zune.

Some sort of switching promo would go a long way to grabbing some customers from Apple. Maybe something like 6 months of subscription or turn in your ipod and get x amount off your Zune.

[Aaron Roma]

Some sort of switching promo would go a long way to grabbing some customers from Apple. Maybe something like 6 months of subscription or turn in your ipod and get x amount off your Zune.


You know, I kinda like that idea. I hadn't really thought about it before, but this scenario works all the time in other markets.

[Chris Gohlke]

I don't think Microsoft meant for the Zune to be an immediate blockbuster. This is version one, the foot in the door. I think if they launch a player without any big negative, they are successful here. It will be another version or two before they have a reals shot at Apple. I think some really tight integration with the 360 might be a good way to go. The trade up program also would be a good way to go. For me, I need to see something with at least twice the storage before it is a go. My 40 GB iRiver is still going strong, but is pretty old at this point.

[Phillip Dyson]

I think MS will have a hard way to go if they don't figure out a way to up their "take away" business. People out there have invested a lot in iPod accessories, and most importantly iTunes music.

Since we know those people are not using subscriptions with iTunes, the only feasible alternative would be to somehow get AAC FairPlay support into the Zune. Perhaps there's a lawsuit on the horizon.