Why Aren't Portable Media Players More Popular?

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,121185,tk,dn060705X,00.asp' target='_blank'>http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,121185,tk,dn060705X,00.asp</a><br /><br /></div><i>"...while some companies have been making progress getting their devices smaller, size might not be the reason why portable media players have yet to ignite the market in the same way as Apple did with the IPod. "Many people don't have a source for MPEG4 files," says Eric Tsai, manager of the sales division at Hsinchu, Taiwan-based Vosonic Technology, referring to the video file type widely supported by the devices. And without a ready source of compatible video files, who needs a video player?"</i><br /><br />There's a rule with any consumer electronics technology that has generally held true over time: it's all about the content. VHS won over Beta because there were more movies for it. If there's not enough content, a technology will fail, no matter how cool it is for it's time (Minidisc). This article talks about the lack of video content being a blocking point for consumers buying video devices. I tend to agree, which makes Microsoft the company to watch - they're already one generation in on connecting a PVR (MCE 2005) to a portable media device (PMC), and I'm sure (I hope?) they've learnt a lot from the first generation. My hunch is we'll see 2nd generation PMC devices coming out this holiday season, and it will be interesting to see if they listened to user feedback. If one model had a CompactFlash slot on it, I would have bought one instantly. MP3 players are a more or less evolved consumer electronics device, but portable media players have a long way to go.

[James Fee]

Honestly they better figure it out soon. I can only assume Apple using their new found partner in Intel will release their version of PMP soon. Every time I use iTunes, I see more and more video content available.

Kind of makes you think they are working on something, I guess they need to figure out a use for Quicktime other than streaming Steve Jobs' keynotes...

[Ed Hansberry]

The problem now is you don't need new software to make it work. You need a new system also known as the MCE to get the full benefit. Who, after plunking down $1,500 for a decent MCE has $500 for a new attached device?

Until MCE is as common as WMP is, I think it is going to be hard to find a compelling reason for the average person to buy one.

[James Fee]

Until MCE is as common as WMP is, I think it is going to be hard to find a compelling reason for the average person to buy one.I'm confused to why you think that. I should be able to download movies from the internet just as easy with XP as MCE. Sure I can't record shows with it, but if these shows were available for download, that would work out better for all.

The only way these video players are going to take off is when you can "cheaply" download movies and shows. I agree that MCE makes it easier, but even I can't imagine replacing my TiVos with a MCE device until they get much, much smaller. If a geek like me can't see the need for MCE yet, how is the average consumer going to get one? Video downloads from MSN are the only way to grow the business.

[jeffd]

I think the biggest reason they havnt taken off is because there is no such thing as copy and go yet. Ever since the first mp3 players, there was no conversion needed. I just copy it.. and go. Easy..fast.. no change in quality. On the same note, all units that DID require you to recompress (That dime sized disc player anyone?) all failed miserably.

Thats the problem with video players... theres lots to download on the internet.. and I think alot of people know this (weather they actually take part in this is another issue), how ever NO one has demonstrated a simply copy and go method of movie playback. The majority of movies on the net are divx based and use high resolutions of atleast 640x480, high bit rates, and these days you will find about %50 or more of the dvd rips actually include AC3 sound with them. No pocket player can play these without changing compression types, a significant reduction in resolution, bitrate, and most players only support one audio format.

And no even microsofts media centers are no answer..first of all... media centers are NOT that popular. You could NOT make a profit if you made a player that required users to have a media center. Also unless your using really crappy quality settings to record your tv shows, you will need media center to transcode them to a lower quality to be playable on the portable player (unless WMV has a feature that allows a sort of on the fly transcode, so you could play video back at low quality and a low bitstream without needing to alter the file data).

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

How about market demand in the first place?

[Felix Torres]

Chicken-n-egg...
It takes time to build up a new platform.
Content won't show up without players, players won't sell without content.
Takes a while to line up all the ducks in a row.
Content.
Distribution.
Connectivity.
Design.
All have to be just right before the platform will cause mainstream consumers (rather than techno-geeks) to sit up and take notice.

MP3s didn't become a mainstream feature for nearly ten years from when they first started sprouting up on college kid's hard drives.

Sop, give it time.
In the meantime, don't miss the forest for the trees; the pieces are falling into place.

For starters Tivo-to-go:
http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=348546&amp;sid=79f8fa3d656077071fdaaeb8340814cf

Second, MS-branded PVRs due this fall.

Third, MCE PCs are now abundant and well under a thousand, and outselling all Macs combined. (If Macs matter in the market, then so do MCE PCs).

Give.
It.
Time.

PMCs are only 9 months old, you know?
At that age, most babies are drooling rugrats that can barely stand up. ;-)

We all want the future *now* but each market develops at its own pace and evolves through customer feedback.

Right now, I'm thinking fast PVR-links are the missing piece of the puzzle.

[Jason Eaton]

How about market demand in the first place?

I agree. Using the ever popular and highly flawed method of talking with friends over lunch method no one I know is needing one. Now needing should be cleared up here... no one NEEDS most electronic devices. When I say need it refers to the strong want of an object where its function would be highly used. If you asked do they *want* one if it was cheap or free they said sure just to 'play around with' but they couldn't really indentify how often they would really use one. I fall in the same boat.

So the line, 'it is about the content' has multiple meanings. First, yes, if there is content it helps propel the device forward. The second part is where the debate happens... video content is different then audio content (no duh) but the part that concerns the debate is how do we use and interact with that content, is that why people are not adopting the techonlogy as fast (if ever).

Music anyone can listen to while doing other things making it an easier and more frequently intergrated into peoples lifestyle. Video demands your attention and time (or else it is just background noise) and needs down time.

Drive into work? I shouldn't be watching videos, at work... again... Jogging? Working outside on the yard?

The points in my life where watching video is okay I am usually at home near another system that does the job a lot better.

Am I everyone? Nope. But I don't think it is fair to PMC to compare them to music players in terms of adoption rates. A niche, of a niche... of a niche I say.

So I guess the poll question is ' Do you psuedo-need a PMC', 'Do you want a PMC just for a toy', 'Or does the 36 inch tv in the living room work just fine'. (not to forget the 'Personal Media Players? Is that where they shrink those people and stick them in a box?')

[Ed Hansberry]

Until MCE is as common as WMP is, I think it is going to be hard to find a compelling reason for the average person to buy one.I'm confused to why you think that. I should be able to download movies from the internet just as easy with XP as MCE. Sure I can't record shows with it, but if these shows were available for download, that would work out better for all.

The only way these video players are going to take off is when you can "cheaply" download movies and shows. I agree that MCE makes it easier, but even I can't imagine replacing my TiVos with a MCE device until they get much, much smaller. If a geek like me can't see the need for MCE yet, how is the average consumer going to get one? Video downloads from MSN are the only way to grow the business.
And portable TV shows. Hence, MCE.

I know MCE isn't the only way to get content to the device, but it is the best, and unless you are hacking TiVoToGo shows into a format the player can understand, which puts you out of the "joe consumer" category, there is no way to get TV shows on the device.

[oo_void]

Actually, there's a pretty darn good Personal Media Player that seems to have taken off in a sense, the PSP.

I've been using one for about 2 months now with the help DVRMSToolbox and Video 9 for trancoding MCE content. Though I haven't put the time into yet, with a bit of tweaking... one can fully automate the conversion process complete with automated copy to the PSP.

At about ~160megs per hour (with commericials stripped) one can fit quite a bit on a 1 gig memory stick. Not to mention, it's got a great screen and can even play a few games should one be so inclined ;). Anyways ...

------
oo_void

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Music anyone can listen to while doing other things making it an easier and more frequently intergrated into peoples lifestyle. Video demands your attention and time (or else it is just background noise) and needs down time.


Been saying this for the longest time! Glad to find another who shares my view!

Another thing to look at is at market adoption of similar devices. On the portable audio front, Sony started with the Walkman, and it was an instant hit, even though it was ol' tape, huge, bulky, and had so-so battery life (still have an early Walkman in the home somewhere).

Portable DVD players.. ermm, last I checked, they certainly weren't in any top 10 lists of hot sellers..

[jbachandouris]

Aren't they still pretty expensive? The last time I checked they were about $500. Is that still true? Funny, I have a 4705 that cost me more than that.

[jeffd]

void, no one buys a psp to watch movies though. And its format and settings require that you exclusivly (that is.. there is no chance you will just "happen" to have movies on your hd that work with the psp) recompress movies for it.

Also its choice of memory is not ideal for a real portable media player. You want atleast one of the mini 4 gigs drives.