PlaysForSure Approach Misguided? Ross Rubin Thinks So

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000757041565/' target='_blank'>http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000757041565/</a><br /><br /></div><i>"In the physical world, consumers choose stores based on price and convenience. The price competition among digital music stores is minimal as there isn’t much headroom for price-slashing and no online store has a significant convenience advantage. On the device side, consumers care about price and features. Again, no Apple competitor has undercut the iPod by a significant enough margin. While many players offer features that Apple does not, they haven’t been appealing enough to overcome Apple’s integrated approach."</i><br /><br />This article doesn't go very deep (the perils of having to crank out content every week I suppose), but it does scratch the surface of a significant problem that: there is no clear and decisive broad market advantage that the PlaysForSure camp has over the iPod camp. There are some small advantages that make all the difference to some people - 95% of my music is in WMA format, so iPods are iNothings for me - but to Joe Average who has 50 CDs in his collection and is looking to get an audio player, the real battleground is around the cool factor, what his friends are using, music selection, and price. PlaysForSure is a good step forward, but I think it won't start to gain traction until early 2006, when a new series of players have been released, and every older player possible has been upgraded.

[Jason Eaton]

...95% of my music is in WMA format, so iPods are iNothings for me...

... when a new series of players have been released, and every older player possible has been upgraded.

And there is the rub, and reason why I don't agree on 2006 being the year of the "Plays For Sure" camps. Just as you don't see value in iPods, those with iPods don't see value in the other options.

Those who have established an iPod/iTunes catalog of music would need to jump through a lot of hoops, time involved, costs of downloaded music or compression on top of compression issues to change. So how many of those that are in the iPod camp will wish to do so?

The amount of incentive needed to be given to switch users increases over time.

New users...maybe, but many they know (a.ka. family, friends) advising them currently say iPod or at least the sales reports would lead you to believe.

This is the reverse of the Windows OS/Apple OS argument now. So change the name of the product and think of all the steps you need to do to switch your computer to a different opperating system. (Time, money, accessories/applications). Still think 2006 is the year?

The Window(s) is closing in my mind.

[Felix Torres]

1- Digital music is not only about portable players, flash or hard-drive based; mp3s existed long before Diamond introduced the Rio and long before ipods were even a dream. Even today, 75% of the compressed digital music on planet Earth is stored as mp3s and I'd be willing to be the same percent or larger is played on devices that bear nobresemblance to thevpod or its competitors; PCs, DVD players and whatnot.

2- plays-for-sure is not about killing the pod. Although if it suceeds it will certainly put a crimp in the iCon's plans. Plays for sure is about establishing a complete interdependent ecosystem built around a variety of product and setvices from a variety of vendors, all transparently linked, to deliver all forms of entertainment (audio, video, games, books, etc) for home and personal use.
To get a top-level look at the full scope of what Devil-Gates is up to, check the slides from this week's WinHec at:

http://www.anandtech.com/tradeshows/showdoc.aspx?i=2402&amp;p=5

Do consider that the slides do not fully highlight the role of Windows Mobile devices, the Xbox, or traditional PCs, all of which are significant players in the web of compatibility behind plays for sure.

Lets face it, long term, Windows Media's best trait is not its ability to deliver significantly better quality at a given data rate (whether for audio or video) but rather its interoperability; the ability to know that a song or video encoded with it will play just about anywhere this side of the pod and linux boxes.

2006 is a very good guess for the time frame when all pieces for plays for sure come together because by then the next XBOX will be out, MCE PCs (already outselling all Macs combined) will have full HD/cablecard compatibility, connected DVD players will be an established product line, and blue laser video players will be out. Plus multimedia phones will be common, whether from Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, or Audiovox.
Once Joe average starts wanting to access his media, from multiple sources, seamlessly across multiple devices and environments, the value of interoperability will be beyond debate.

And by then Apple will be both doing subscriptions and licensing fairplay.
And the poddies will be proclaiming the virtues of interoperability ala Jobs.

After all, interoperability, like everything else, doesn't exist until Apple invents it. :-)

[Timothy Huber]

I too fall into the WMA camp. I have about 7000 songs ripped/purchased/converted in WMA format such that the prospect of using an iPod offes me little benefit. Which is too bad because they really are slick devices.

The business model that Apple has put in place is going to be a hard one for PlaysForSure to compete with, especially as iPods have such a massive market share. I was initially a bit surprised how reticent Apple was to allow other suppliers to offer FairPlay DRM'd music. Considering that the iTunes store makes little to no profit for Apple, clearly selling more iPods is where they make their cash.

So when Real introduced their Harmony technology, which allowed them to transcode their RealAudio DRM files to support the iPod, I was a tad surprised how quickly they updated firmware to break Real's solution. (Of course, when I think of Apple I think of closed systems and an almost anal rententive level of control over the environment, so it wasn't a complete surprise how they responded.)

But the more I thought about it the more I realized that Apple was seeking to control their business model, not the user experience. By forcing users to integrate their iPods with the iTunes store, Apple is producing a self-perpetuating iPod marketplace.

Consider this: If I'm an iPod user and the only place I can purchase a broad range of digital music is from the iTunes store, that's where I'm going to purchase it. And after three years when I decide that it is time to get a new audio player I'm going to consider the fact that my music library will only play on the iPod. So I'll purchase a new iPod and not a device that would require me to repurchase my music.

So when Real offers me the opportunity to purchase my DRM'd music to support the iPod PLUS other devices, my entire digital music "worldview" expands to include much more than the iPod as an acceptable alternative. I imagine that rather than viewing Real's Harmony as broadening support for the iPod, Apple views it as a threat to the business model they've put in place.

That's also why I don't think Apple will pursue a subscription model in the near term. If, as a user, I can rent my music library I have little to no investment in a specific format. So when it's time to replace my audio player, if I switch from an iPod to a PlaysForSure device without having to repurchase my music.

If PlaysForSure is going to take market share, I believe that a subscription model is going to be a key differentiator. I've been a Rhapsody subscriber for several years specifically because I like the opportunity to listen to music before I buy and also to have on-demand access to music that I don't necessarily want to make a part of my permanent collection.

The PlaysForSure subscription extension of that capability to portable devices is exciting, at least from my viewpoint. I've been using the FYE Download Zone with my Creative Zen Micro for the past few weeks and have been delighted with the chance to have access to a million tracks that I can take with me anywhere. I've broadened my music collection substantially and discovered musicians and bands that I wouldn't have even considered in the past, all for less than the price of one CD per month.

Unfortunately, the upgraded Rhapsody with its To Go susbription appears to have been a victim of someone booking the Radio City Music Hall and forcing its release before it was ready. But when they get the bugs worked out and I can finally get it to work with my Zen Micro I'll be switching. For $15 per month I'll be able to listen on demand from a choice of over 1,000,000 tracks on my PC, stream them to UPnP devices in my home, and fill up three MP3 players for me and my family to take with us when we leave home.

If you ask me that's pretty cool and the more I think about it the more the closed iPod world begins to look a little less pristine.

Timothy

[Jason Dunn]

Thanks for sharing your opinions guys - those are some of the most interesting thoughts I'd read on this site in a long time. :D