TiVo, Dead or Alive?

[James Fee]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/02/wo/wo_hellweg020705.asp' target='_blank'>http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/02/wo/wo_hellweg020705.asp</a><br /><br /></div><i>"The producers of VH1's program Best Week Ever won't be won't be calling on Tivo headquarters anytime soon. As far as weeks go, these last few were probably some of the worst for the Alviso, California-based firm. In the span of roughly two weeks, the CEO and president resigned, and the company's stock price fell almost 20 percent. Those sensing the company's demise ratcheted up their critiques. "Who will buy Tivo for scrap?" asked Kevin Werbach, a tech analyst and professor at Wharton, on his blog. From a purely financial perspective, it's premature to write an actual obituary for the company. In the most recent quarter, the company still had $88.5 million in cash on hand, with $7.3 million in debt. "</i><br /><br />It is easy to beat up on TiVo, but unless they start getting the CableCard compatible players out there, $88.5 million won't be enough.

[piperpilot]

OK, this question is really going to give me away as the clueless mass market consumer that I am when it comes to digital media issues, but I have to ask nevertheless. If not Tivo, then what? What other DVRs are out there? Do these other DVRs have cable card compatibility? If I was going to buy one, which should I choose?

[James Fee]

OK, this question is really going to give me away as the clueless mass market consumer that I am when it comes to digital media issues, but I have to ask nevertheless. If not Tivo, then what? What other DVRs are out there? Do these other DVRs have cable card compatibility? If I was going to buy one, which should I choose?Well there is TiVo (which I have 2 and I'll never give them up). You also have ReplayTV which has been passed around. If TiVo is in trouble, ReplayTV (http://www.digitalnetworksna.com/replaytv/default.asp) is really in trouble with their much smaller market share. Both TiVo and Replay TV are currently not integrated directly with cable so you'll have to use an IR Blaster (http://www.irblaster.info/tivo.html) type device like your old VCRs to control the cable box.

Integrated directly into the digital cable or satellite receivers; DirecTV users TiVo right now, but they have plans to introduce their own DVR (http://www.engadget.com/entry/1234000793026327). Dish Network has their own branded DVRs (http://www.dishnetwork.com/content/products/dvr/index.shtml). It gets more complicated with cable companies. Most use brands such as Scentific Atlanta (http://www.scientificatlanta.com/consumers_new/CableBoxes/8300hd.htm) or a new Microsoft design (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6438774/). Of course that doesn't even touch on PC based solutions such as Microsoft Windows XP Media Center Edition.

[Felix Torres]

OK, this question is really going to give me away as the clueless mass market consumer that I am when it comes to digital media issues, but I have to ask nevertheless. If not Tivo, then what? What other DVRs are out there? Do these other DVRs have cable card compatibility? If I was going to buy one, which should I choose?

If not TiVo, then what?
Cable set top boxes.
Satellite receivers.
Smart TVs.
Media Center PCs.
Home Theater PCs.
Portable Media Centers.
DVD recorders.
Heck, even (I'm trying not to snicker here) miniMacs.
As to what do buy, well, what of the above list do you need? Or maybe your cable company offers the feature for $6 a month and you have to buy nothing.

TiVO just might end up where rabbit-ear antenna vendors ended up after cable took over.

PVR is a feature, not a product that people will pay three times for.
It will end up as a checklist added-value on any or all of the above-listed (and other) products that offer a standalone reason to buy or rent.

Trust me, the world won't end when or if TiVo dies.
(A bit early to be holding a funeral, though.)
At a minium we should wait for Direct TV to deploy their TiVO replacement PVR/receivers later this year.
Then if TiVO hasn't announced how they will recapture that two-thirds fraction of their customer base, then we can hold a wake.
Fair 'nough, guys?

Now, if you want to start a pool on *when* to hold the wake... :-)

[piperpilot]

Right now, I have regular cable. No satellite; no digital cable. I will get digital cable when I get an HDTV, which I am hoping will be sometime before the end of the year. So, that leaves me out of the market for the Direct TV solution and the Comcast product (for the time being anyway). I thought about buying a DVD recorder, but I tape 9 hours of TV per week. I don't want to have to worry about changing DVDs every two or three hours. I want to set something to tape and watch everything I've recorded at the end of the week. So that leaves DVD recorders out. I am not going to go out and spend $$ for a Windows Media Center PC because I don't even own a laptop yet and I am confused by the technology, which is why I'm here (to learn). So, I keep coming back to Tivo, but I don't want to invest even a couple of hundred dollars in something that's not going to be around a year from now. Am I missing something here?

[James Fee]

Who is your cable provider? The most certainly offer a DVR solution. Basically you rent the product from them rather than pay for it up front like TiVo.

In the end though, I have yet to see another DVR product that is as easy to use as TiVo which is a shame. Hopefully someone will buy TiVo and we'll see the GUI in more products.

[piperpilot]

Who is your cable provider? The most certainly offer a DVR solution. Basically you rent the product from them rather than pay for it up front like TiVo.

Comcast, but I think their DVR can only be used with digital cable. I have standard cable.

[Pony99CA]

You also have ReplayTV which has been passed around. If TiVo is in trouble, ReplayTV (http://www.digitalnetworksna.com/replaytv/default.asp) is really in trouble with their much smaller market share.
Maybe, but have you actually read anything about Replay being in trouble? I don't think I have since Digital Networks picked them up.

Also, Replay is arguably a better PVR than Tivo. It was the first to have networking capability (and doesn't even require a phone line for setup), the only PVR that I know of to allow sharing programs over the Internet and the only PVR that I'm aware that has component video out. The video sharing has been removed from their latest 55xx units thanks to the broadcasters, but you can still pick up the 50xx some places. Also, you can have multiple input sources with Replay (antenna, cable, satellite) which I don't believe Tivo can do.

Unfortunately, Replay doesn't seem to have been very good about licensing their technology, and only Panasonic made a Replay clone (the Showstopper, which I don't think they make any longer). Tivo comes integrated in DVD players, DVD recorders, cable boxes, etc.

Both TiVo and Replay TV are currently not integrated directly with cable so you'll have to use an IR Blaster (http://www.irblaster.info/tivo.html) type device like your old VCRs to control the cable box.
If you need a cable box, that's true. I have Charter digital cable and get over 70 channels of cable without a box, which includes almost everything I watch on TV (and I watch a lot of TV).

Steve

[James Fee]

Maybe, but have you actually read anything about Replay being in trouble? I don't think I have since Digital Networks picked them up.

Also, Replay is arguably a better PVR than Tivo. It was the first to have networking capability (and doesn't even require a phone line for setup), the only PVR that I know of to allow sharing programs over the Internet and the only PVR that I'm aware that has component video out. The video sharing has been removed from their latest 55xx units thanks to the broadcasters, but you can still pick up the 50xx some places. Also, you can have multiple input sources with Replay (antenna, cable, satellite) which I don't believe Tivo can do.
Sure its wonderful and a footnote to the total DVR market. *shrug*
Unfortunately, Replay doesn't seem to have been very good about licensing their technology, and only Panasonic made a Replay clone (the Showstopper, which I don't think they make any longer). Tivo comes integrated in DVD players, DVD recorders, cable boxes, etc.Which is why I think they are in trouble. If TiVo can't break into the cable market, what hope does ReplayTV have?


If you need a cable box, that's true. I have Charter digital cable and get over 70 channels of cable without a box, which includes almost everything I watch on TV (and I watch a lot of TV).Integrated DVRs are the future and without them, TiVo and all similar products are destined for the scrap heap. Heck cable already has HD DVRs while TiVo does not. I just see no way out for either company no matter how much better they are than Scientific Atlanta's box.

[Felix Torres]

Right now, I have regular cable. No satellite; no digital cable. I will get digital cable when I get an HDTV, which I am hoping will be sometime before the end of the year. So, that leaves me out of the market for the Direct TV solution and the Comcast product (for the time being anyway). I thought about buying a DVD recorder, but I tape 9 hours of TV per week. I don't want to have to worry about changing DVDs every two or three hours. I want to set something to tape and watch everything I've recorded at the end of the week. So that leaves DVD recorders out. I am not going to go out and spend $$ for a Windows Media Center PC because I don't even own a laptop yet and I am confused by the technology, which is why I'm here (to learn). So, I keep coming back to Tivo, but I don't want to invest even a couple of hundred dollars in something that's not going to be around a year from now. Am I missing something here?

You seen this?
http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.gsp?product_id=3182262&amp;cat=62055&amp;type=19&amp;dept=3944&amp;path=0%3A3944%3A172479%3A62055

A lot of newer DVD recorders come with built-in hard drives.
Just record to the HD and burn to dvd only the keepers.
Not as fancy as a most PVR solutions, but it'll get the job done...

[Pony99CA]

Maybe, but have you actually read anything about Replay being in trouble? I don't think I have since Digital Networks picked them up.

Also, Replay is arguably a better PVR than Tivo. It was the first to have networking capability (and doesn't even require a phone line for setup), the only PVR that I know of to allow sharing programs over the Internet and the only PVR that I'm aware that has component video out. The video sharing has been removed from their latest 55xx units thanks to the broadcasters, but you can still pick up the 50xx some places. Also, you can have multiple input sources with Replay (antenna, cable, satellite) which I don't believe Tivo can do.
Sure its wonderful and a footnote to the total DVR market. *shrug*

I'll take that to mean that you haven't read anything about Replay being in trouble, then.

However, calling Replay a "footnote" seems unnecessarily denigrating. I believe the Replay was the first PVR available (or announced), it has won an Emmy award and it has features that Tivo still doesn't. No, it's not the sales leader, but that doesn't make it a bad company.

Would you call Apple just a footnote in the total PC market?

Unfortunately, Replay doesn't seem to have been very good about licensing their technology, and only Panasonic made a Replay clone (the Showstopper, which I don't think they make any longer). Tivo comes integrated in DVD players, DVD recorders, cable boxes, etc.
Which is why I think they are in trouble. If TiVo can't break into the cable market, what hope does ReplayTV have?
Actually, maybe Replay's non-reliance on the cable/satellite market could be a strength. There are plenty of people who don't have cable (although I suspect that number is shrinking), and stand-alone PVRs will be the only hope for them. Do you really think that niche will go unfilled?

Also, even for people with cable or satellite TV, I suspect there will be people who don't want an integrated device. More on that next....

Integrated DVRs are the future and without them, TiVo and all similar products are destined for the scrap heap.
I disagree for a few reasons. While I agree that integration will be important to some people, I don't think it will be to everybody. If it was, wouldn't you expect to see integrated TV/cable boxes and integrated VCR/cable boxes? Would you buy a TV that only worked with one cable provider?

Also, just like the audio field (and the PDA/smart phone field), there are people who prefer separates to integrated devices. They tend to work better for their specific purpose (no jack-of-all-trades syndrome) and they don't require replacing everything when you want to upgrade a feature. That's probably why integrated TV/VCRs and TV/DVD players are a niche market.

I think competing with the cable companies will be more about pricing than integration. The hard part will be convincing people to pay up front for the box and also pay a monthly fee (or a large lifetime fee). It can be done, though -- look at satellite TV, where you have to buy the equipment and pay for the service (although many people get the equipment free nowadays after rebates and contracts).

If the PVR companies can do something similar -- basically give the boxes away and have long-term contracts that cost less than the cable companies charge for their PVRs, I think there will be a good market for stand-alone PVRs. I won't write them off yet.

Steve

[James Fee]

I'll take that to mean that you haven't read anything about Replay being in trouble, then.I've read much on the fact that TiVo and other similar products are in trouble.
However, calling Replay a "footnote" seems unnecessarily denigrating. I believe the Replay was the first PVR available (or announced), it has won an Emmy award and it has features that Tivo still doesn't. No, it's not the sales leader, but that doesn't make it a bad company.I never said it was bad and I do admit it is better in many ways than my TiVos, but it doesn't change the way the market looks at it.
Would you call Apple just a footnote in the total PC market?In the same way as ReplayTV is to the DVR market, yes I would.
Actually, maybe Replay's non-reliance on the cable/satellite market could be a strength. There are plenty of people who don't have cable (although I suspect that number is shrinking), and stand-alone PVRs will be the only hope for them. Do you really think that niche will go unfilled?Nope, there are pleanty of solutions for those people, TiVo, MCE, and ReplayTV.

I disagree for a few reasons. While I agree that integration will be important to some people, I don't think it will be to everybody. If it was, wouldn't you expect to see integrated TV/cable boxes and integrated VCR/cable boxes? Would you buy a TV that only worked with one cable provider? Check out the CableCARD (http://news.com.com/FAQ+CableCard+Whats+that/2100-1041_3-5542400.html).
Also, just like the audio field (and the PDA/smart phone field), there are people who prefer separates to integrated devices. They tend to work better for their specific purpose (no jack-of-all-trades syndrome) and they don't require replacing everything when you want to upgrade a feature. That's probably why integrated TV/VCRs and TV/DVD players are a niche market.Stand alone products are always going to have issues with compatibility in the future as DRM continues to take away our rights. Picture quality is always less to boot.
I think competing with the cable companies will be more about pricing than integration. The hard part will be convincing people to pay up front for the box and also pay a monthly fee (or a large lifetime fee). It can be done, though -- look at satellite TV, where you have to buy the equipment and pay for the service (although many people get the equipment free nowadays after rebates and contracts).Bingo, Cox Cable where we are only "rents" their DVR boxs, which most people would rather do than deal with IR Blasters.
If the PVR companies can do something similar -- basically give the boxes away and have long-term contracts that cost less than the cable companies charge for their PVRs, I think there will be a good market for stand-alone PVRs. I won't write them off yet.TiVo have been trying that lately with their model, but when you can get a HD DVR from your cable company for as much or less than TiVo's monthly fee it is a hard road to climb. TiVo will eventually get bought by someone (Sony, Samsung, Microsoft, Apple, Dell, HP) who wants the marketshare.

[Pony99CA]

Actually, maybe Replay's non-reliance on the cable/satellite market could be a strength. There are plenty of people who don't have cable (although I suspect that number is shrinking), and stand-alone PVRs will be the only hope for them. Do you really think that niche will go unfilled?
Nope, there are pleanty of solutions for those people, TiVo, MCE, and ReplayTV.
But if Tivo and Replay die, as you seem to be assuming, that only leaves Media Center (is "E" Edition or Extender?). Many people don't want PCs in their living rooms.

I disagree for a few reasons. While I agree that integration will be important to some people, I don't think it will be to everybody. If it was, wouldn't you expect to see integrated TV/cable boxes and integrated VCR/cable boxes? Would you buy a TV that only worked with one cable provider?
Check out the CableCARD (http://news.com.com/FAQ+CableCard+Whats+that/2100-1041_3-5542400.html).
OK, but I don't see what the point is. That's not really integrating anything but the authorization part, and the cited article said Tivo was working on a CableCard box. They can do that without being allied with the cable companies.

Also, I don't know how many cable companies will deploy CableCard in its current form. As the article you cited says, it doesn't handle two-way interactions, and I don't see the cable companies walking away from easy pay-per-view usage. It will probably replace "dumb" set-top boxes, but not more capable ones.

Finally, even if CableCard takes off, what prevents somebody from creating a CableCard splitter/switcher? You plug your CableCard into that and distribute the video feed to any devices you want.

Stand alone products are always going to have issues with compatibility in the future as DRM continues to take away our rights. Picture quality is always less to boot.
Stand-alone products won't have any problems as long as they can be automatically updated. Tivo and Replay both have the capability built-in to automatically upgrade their software.

As for picture quality, that's only true for now. There could easily be an HD PVR or ones with digital inputs that don't have to encode the video.

I think competing with the cable companies will be more about pricing than integration. The hard part will be convincing people to pay up front for the box and also pay a monthly fee (or a large lifetime fee). It can be done, though -- look at satellite TV, where you have to buy the equipment and pay for the service (although many people get the equipment free nowadays after rebates and contracts).
Bingo, Cox Cable where we are only "rents" their DVR boxs, which most people would rather do than deal with IR Blasters.
Yes, IR blasters suck. However, you didn't answer my question about cable company TVs or VCRs, either. Why aren't the cable companies renting those?

TiVo will eventually get bought by someone (Sony, Samsung, Microsoft, Apple, Dell, HP) who wants the marketshare.
Replay was bought by Denon &amp; Marantz, but still exists under the Replay name. If somebody buys Tivo but still keeps producing stand-alone boxes, what's the big deal? As long as people can still buy the units and development goes on, whether Tivo is an independent company or not seems to be irrelevant.

Steve