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View Full Version : Dell: "iPod Is Just A Fad"


Kent Pribbernow
01-18-2005, 08:00 PM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://news.com.com/Dells+Rollins+dismisses+iPod+as+a+fad/2100-1042_3-5540063.html?tag=nefd.top' target='_blank'>http://news.com.com/Dells+Rollins+dismisses+iPod+as+a+fad/2100-1042_3-5540063.html?tag=nefd.top</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Dell Chief Executive Kevin Rollins is dismissing the iPod as a "fad" and a "one-product wonder", claiming the new Mac Mini won't dent the PC market. In an interview with Silicon.com at Dell's headquarters here last week, Rollins said that the number of headlines Apple grabs does not worry him and that the company isn't "in the same league" as Dell."</i><br /><br />Translation: "What? Me worry?". I hope for Mr. Rollins sake the webmasters at Dell.com have removed his public email address from the company web site. Otherwise he is sooooo going to get flame mail. :lol: Though I do agree with his assertion that Dell and Apple are not in the same league. That's an understatement.<br /><br />I was especially amused by this remark...<br /><br /><div class="quote"> <span class="quote">Quote:</span> "This (the Mac Mini) might be an interesting new product, but I'm not really believing this is going to turn the industry upside down." </div><br /><br />Oh...is he ever in for a surprise. :twisted:

Tim Williamson
01-18-2005, 10:02 PM
He's just trying to talk up his company, so I don't blame him...but I don't agree with him. If the Mac Mini were in the $200-300 price range it would make a major dent in the PC market.

In addition, I think this gives PC makers a challenge to make a PC as small as the Mac Mini. I'm guessing we'll be seeing some "Mac Mini" PCs soon, and Dell better catch on to this "fad" and not become complacent.

Jason Dunn
01-18-2005, 11:46 PM
It's funny, the smaller Dell boxes cost MORE than the bigger ones - so Apple has really put the industry on it's head in many ways. Being the small-form-factor fan that I am, this will only do good things for the industry as a whole. Death to the full tower! :lol:

I'm not yet convinced this will make a dent in the PC market - let's face it, every product that Jobs announces cures Cancer - but I'm going to watch this all very carefully.

djh
01-19-2005, 12:09 AM
If you load YellowDog Linux onto the minimac it would be a pretty good computer.

Felix Torres
01-19-2005, 12:17 AM
Okay, I'll bite...
...on the mini, anyway.
Namely that he's right; it is not going to turn the industry (which sells 200 million PCs a year) upside down.
Regardless of whether the mini is a good great, or indifferent product, it will *not* cause more than a ripple in the computer industry, no matter how much hype it gets, because the only people that are going to buy this particular Mac box are those already interested in getting a Mac (whatever their motivation) in the first place.

Think about it, low-end boxes are bought as:
- Novice computers for those who aren't sure they need one
- second computers in families that already have one
- first computers for low-income households
- replacement for an existing box when the owner *knows* the low-end box is sufficient

Big problem for Apple (which the mini is supposed to address): 98% of the personal computers sold last year were PCs. 2% were Macs.

Now novices tend to go with the flow; so, unless they know somebody with a Mac who can convince them the Mac is superior, they're more likely to go with a PC; its the old network effects hurdle.

The same effect applies to second computer and replacement computer sales; if you have a PC, you have PC software, so your next computer is most likely going to be a PC. That's why, for all the ads and hype and annectodal story-telling during Apple's "switch" campaign, Apple's market share *fell* at the same time they were trotting out ex-PC'ers; for every PC'er that tried and liked a Mac, 50 others stayed with the PC or worse, switch from Mac to PC.

A second problem with the mini is that its not all that cheap and the small size only applies to the cpu box not the full system.

The plain fact is that the cheapest complete system you can assemble around a Mac Mini is $650 with a tube or $800 with an LCD.
A generic low-end PC can be had for $500 with a tube or $650 with an LCD. And it will have a bigger HD than the Mac Mini.
Or, if size is the concern, a PC laptop can be had for $700 just about anywhere. (Actually WalMart goes as low as $550 for laptops...)

So, if you want a low-cost, compact system, a laptop is a better buy than the Mini.

Lets face it, Apple is so deep in the hole that even growing its market share by 50% overnight, will only bring them back to the 3% market share it had three years ago.

That will impact the overall PC market as much as a fly hitting the windshield of a speeding Peterbilt.

Network effects are cruel and overwhelming.
And so are PC's darwinian economies of scale.

Sorry, Mr jobs; too little, waaayyyy too late.

whydidnt
01-19-2005, 12:37 AM
While I don't think the Mac Mini is a "Dell killer". It's a very good concept that will score some sales. Dell needs to remember that today's innovators are tomorrow's leaders, and if they simply blow off new ideas such as this they will lose their market position sooner or later.

It looks like the Mac Mini is simply a re-sized power book without integrated keyboard, touchpad, LCD, etc. With the relative success of the small form factor PC market, it makes me wonder why nobody - Sony, Dell, HP, etc. has thought of this idea themselves. Sell a small low-to-mid end PC using laptop parts for those who want to have the smallest PC possible, but don't need or want an actual laptop. I know I'd rather have a few of these tucked away for secondary use than having a a big PC case in the corner.

bdegroodt
01-19-2005, 02:01 AM
Not sure it's revolutionary (though I can't wait for mine to arrive), but I certainly would put this strongly in the evolutionary category for Apple. The number one reason I hear over and over from people that are interested in a Mac (but don't buy one) is how expensive the hardware is. This is effectively off the table now. I suspect it will help Apple just like it helps Mercedes, BMW, &lt;insert luxury auto maker here> by creating a reduced-cost/reduced-feature entry model into their luxury line. Same goes here for Apple.

By the way, I "switched" back after a decade of PC laptops last March. I can't even begin to tell you how comfortable it is for me to know that I have a machine that's obsolescence horizon is years versus months in the PC world. I want for nothing (and probably take advantage of a fraction of the features) of my PB. Well worth the "premium" paid for entrance.

Jason Dunn
01-19-2005, 04:37 AM
...to know that I have a machine that's obsolescence horizon is years versus months in the PC world.

That's a very interesting statement - what do you mean by it?

bdegroodt
01-19-2005, 04:46 AM
...to know that I have a machine that's obsolescence horizon is years versus months in the PC world.

That's a very interesting statement - what do you mean by it?
Mostly a feeling that every PC I ever owned (esp notebooks) was already "old" as soon as I broke the seal on the box. Always had a feeling that I was pushing my Wintel hardware to some sort of crazy limit even though I added RAM/got the fastest available CPU, etc. On my PB, I honestly have wanted for nothing in the performance arena (with specs that some argue as inferior to their PC counterparts). I can easily run (and have open now) Excel, Word, Entourage (Outlook), Dreamweaver, Fireworks, Messenger, iTunes, Safari/Firefox and all the other associated software to run the machine (OS etc.) and have no noticable decrease in application response.

Can't explain it technically, but I sure know when I'm on my Mac versus when I'm on my PC. As a PC consumer, I always felt like I was on the hunt for newer hardware. For my Mac, I have no need to continue to hunt because I'm well fed.

Jason Dunn
01-19-2005, 05:32 AM
Can't explain it technically, but I sure know when I'm on my Mac versus when I'm on my PC. As a PC consumer, I always felt like I was on the hunt for newer hardware. For my Mac, I have no need to continue to hunt because I'm well fed.

Sounds like a purely psychological "warm fuzzy" response rather than anything based on facts. But hey, whatever works for ya. ;-)

Felix Torres
01-19-2005, 01:51 PM
It looks like the Mac Mini is simply a re-sized power book without integrated keyboard, touchpad, LCD, etc. With the relative success of the small form factor PC market, it makes me wonder why nobody - Sony, Dell, HP, etc. has thought of this idea themselves.

Actually, its been done at least three times in the last five years by third-tier/asian vendors with no great results.
One outfit actually sold what they openly admitted was a laptop without a display as a mini-web server with built-in ups. ;-)

Tiger Direct used to carry one that was about the size of the Mac Mini for about two years; it started at about $499, if I remember correctly.

Right now, there are a zillion mini-itx boxes running Via Eden CPUs (decent power, no fan required) in a several dozen different cases and form factors ranging from a cigar box to inside a sculpture. And most sell for less than the Mac Mini.
But, of course, their executives don't have reality-distortion zone powers or extensive media hype at their beck and call, so they don't get called innovative. :-)

Anybody interested in seeing the kind of Media Center computers that folks have been building with mini-ITX for the past few years, take a stroll round:

http://www.mini-itx.com/

As you can see, there's a reason I stayed away from debating the technical merits of the Mac Mini in and of itself, above, and simply focused on the market realities. 8)

Not meaning to draw upon me the wrath of the faithful or anything, but the personal computer industry is a *mature* business and the boundaries of the market have long been scouted, explored and fully mapped...
There is no more terra incognita in hardware.
Pretty much anything that has even the vaguest chance of selling has been tried somewhere, somehow, by somebody.

So yeah, the Mac Mini is relatively cheap and small...for a Mac...
In the larger universe of computers it is a yawner; smaller, cheaper. faster and/or cuter boxes exist and have existed for ages.
And 90 percent of buyers still go with the beige/black/silver three piece suits.

Nope, Dell has nothing to fear from the Mac Mini...

Which doesn't mean its not a good move for Apple (that's a whole 'nother discussion of product pricing and sales cannibalization); just that it is, like all Macs, a niche product with scant appeal in the greater ocean of the worldwide personal computing industry.

bdegroodt
01-19-2005, 02:04 PM
Sounds like a purely psychological "warm fuzzy" response rather than anything based on facts. But hey, whatever works for ya. ;-)
Not sure that it's "purely psychological." The "fact" remains that I haven't had a need due to poor performance (or otherwise) look for new hardware since buying my PB. As I said, in the past lagging performance was a "given" in my PC days.

In fact, I'm working from a Dell D400 as we speak and the inability of that machine to handle much more than a spreadsheet, Outlook and a browser infuriates me. And that's a machine with "twice" the CPU power, same amount of RAM and is already no longer available (same specs) in the Dell channel after only a couple of months.

Felix Torres
01-19-2005, 02:21 PM
Can't explain it technically, but I sure know when I'm on my Mac versus when I'm on my PC. As a PC consumer, I always felt like I was on the hunt for newer hardware. For my Mac, I have no need to continue to hunt because I'm well fed.

Sounds like a purely psychological "warm fuzzy" response rather than anything based on facts. But hey, whatever works for ya. ;-)

Uh, not meaning to intrude, but there *are* facts behind that warm and fuzzy psyche effect. ;-)
Namely that Mac generations last three years with minimal hardware updates while PC hardware changes every three months and significantly every 18 months.
So, folks that are compulsive about staying at the leading edge of their tech (or just keeping up with the Jones-es) are running a Red Queen's Race on the PC side, as opposed to a leisuredly stroll in Mac-Land.

Lets face it, if the technology doesn't improve significantly in two years, that's two years you don't have to fret about somebody somewhere having a better box than you do.
(*if* you worry about those thing, that is.) >;-)

Just think of the choices you face in picking a PC:

Portable or desktop?
If desktop, Intel or AMD?
PCI express or AGP or onboard graphics?
Nvidia or ATI? Gamer or business-level graphics?
XP Home, Pro, MCE, Tablet edition, or for that matter, Linux or Solaris?
The anxiety of choice can be overwhelming to some people!

With the Mac you just write unca Stevie a check and you're golden for three years or until the next time you want to buy the OS all over again.

Lets face it, there *is* a ready market out there for computers for people
who don't *want* to know about computers. :twisted:

Jason Eaton
01-19-2005, 02:40 PM
... The "fact" remains that I haven't had a need...

This is an actual argument in the 'market share' debates that has been going on for ages. If you take a look at the number of OS X users and then the number generated by new sales for the market, the number of OS X user far exceedes the 3%.

In short Apple users do not continually re-buy machines as often, but rather use 'older' hardware and simply upgrade the OS.

Then there is the number of vendors who still sell parts and upgrade parts for older machines like the Apple Cube, a 450mhz machine that can still run OS X with a memory upgrade. The machine was released in July 2000 (four and a half years ago).

So you might question "is it the hardware or the OS software that preforms this?", in the Apple world those two items go hand and hand and are rarely seperated (linux dual boots and such) and in the end you buy once and for a while (unless you have techno-lust-fever and 'need' to have the latest)

While perhaps part of another thread, when you buy a low cost Apple it could save you more money then you think. I know some work associates who buy the low cost PC and end up buying another low cost PC in two years just to keep their machine feeling capable. Over time they end up paying a lot more. Two cents.

Lee Yuan Sheng
01-19-2005, 03:47 PM
Jason is right. Look, the PC you bought the same time as the Mac (assuming their performance is comparable) does not automatically become slower than the Mac just because the speed of new product introductions is faster!

That kind of faulty thinking is what really irritates me with photographers needing the latest and greatest camera, and whine that "oh, company x better come up with this otherwise they'll die, because WE NEED THIS!" :roll:

bdegroodt
01-19-2005, 04:32 PM
Jason is right. Look, the PC you bought the same time as the Mac (assuming their performance is comparable)...
Isn't this the heart of the question? Clearly performance isn't comparable. Otherwise I can't find a reason as to why I suspect my PB will last me for years versus what was an annual upgrade of my PCs. My upgrades had little to do with the "latest and greatest" envy and much more to do with lagging performance. Perhaps part of the issue is the constant stream of new software upgrades in the PC world? Not sure, but I still stand by my original claim--I'm not replacing a notebook for the first time in 10 years this year, and don't suspect I'll need to for a couple more years. It's very refreshing and the biggest reason why I'm so "bullish" on Apple/Mac right now.

whydidnt
01-19-2005, 05:39 PM
Actually, its been done at least three times in the last five years by third-tier/asian vendors with no great results.
One outfit actually sold what they openly admitted was a laptop without a display as a mini-web server with built-in ups. ;-)

Tiger Direct used to carry one that was about the size of the Mac Mini for about two years; it started at about $499, if I remember correctly.

Right now, there are a zillion mini-itx boxes running Via Eden CPUs (decent power, no fan required) in a several dozen different cases and form factors ranging from a cigar box to inside a sculpture. And most sell for less than the Mac Mini.

Thanks for the heads up. I stand corrected. However the Via Eden CPU is crap. My opinion is that performance wise it is no competitor to the G4 included in the Mini. How about a cool ULV Pentium M unit?

Still, no "top-tier" vendor has produced or marketed this type of device. True, the Mac-mini will attract attention because Apple is a darling of mainstream media. However, if Dell, IBM, HP or Gateway released this type of device we would see more media attention than any of the devices you mentioned received. It's hard for any of these devices to gain widespread acceptance when nobody knows about them.

Felix Torres
01-19-2005, 07:14 PM
Still, no "top-tier" vendor has produced or marketed this type of device.

Nope.
And the funny thing is, they won't either.

As the Dell exec pointed out, the business that the big boys chase is the corporate market.
It is the small-fry that actively go after the personal-use market.

Case in point: Media Center PCs.
MS gave the big guys two years exclusivity on the platform and all they shipped was bulky tower cases.
Three months after opening the OS to the small-fry and we have dozens of seriously interesting AV-formfactor products to choose from at 50% of the price of the big guys.

Which brings back the argument that if there were a substantial market for these pint-size wonders we would have seen it already, since the technology is neither new nor hard to get. Since we haven't, there isn't; its a nice attention-grabbing, conversation-piece of a niche product that won't significantly impact the industry, pretty much as the Dell boss said.

But given the crappy weather outside, a conversation piece is fine by me... ;-)

phillypocket
01-19-2005, 10:32 PM
Since markets and business justifications have been sprinkled loosely throughout this conversation, I thought I'd point out that Motely-Fool has an opinion from an investors point of view (as opposed to buyer or fan). Interesting read.

Fool.com: Apples Magic Act (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05011203.htm)

Jason Dunn
01-20-2005, 12:29 AM
Fool.com: Apples Magic Act (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05011203.htm)

Very interesting read - thanks for sharing! I don't know enough about economics to follow 100% of what was in that article, but it was a good read anyway. :-)

jlp
01-20-2005, 03:54 AM
Okay, I'll bite...
...on the mini, anyway.
Namely that he's right; it is not going to turn the industry (which sells 200 million PCs a year) upside down.
Regardless of whether the mini is a good great, or indifferent product, it will *not* cause more than a ripple in the computer industry, no matter how much hype it gets, because the only people that are going to buy this particular Mac box are those already interested in getting a Mac (whatever their motivation) in the first place.

Tho you have very interesting arguments, I don't believe it's a mirror of reality.

Even if Apple take one single percent of the market, that's still over 2 million units. Feasible.

I'm sure if you look back at the time of the iMac and iPod launch and read comments, you'll find thousands of people predicting these devices would fail in the market. The iMac was far from competitive in terms of either performances or price.

Before the iPod, there have been other HDD based music players, but none had any inpact at all besides the ipod. I can't even remember more than 2-3 brands who had 1 or 2 such devices. I believe Archos had HDD MP3 players as well.

Now iMac and iPod are household names and everybody have seen Apple's ads a zillion times.

The iMac pretty much saved Apple's @$$ and the iPod has the lion share of the HDD music players every manufacturer is shooting at.

4 iPod gens, the iPod Mini now the iPod Shuffler.

Even tho the iPod competition is offering more for less (radio, WMA, microphone, higher capacities, etc.) the iPod is still #1 and by far.

And tho I'm NOT an Apple boy (I only owned one Mac out of over 30 PC desktops, notebooks, subnotebooks, etc.; well I also had 4 Newtons too vs about a dozen PPCs), I believe this Mac Mini will be a success, even if I too can find dozens of reasons why it shouldn't be...

Felix Torres
01-20-2005, 01:08 PM
Since markets and business justifications have been sprinkled loosely throughout this conversation, I thought I'd point out that Motely-Fool has an opinion from an investors point of view (as opposed to buyer or fan). Interesting read.

Fool.com: Apples Magic Act (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05011203.htm)

Disclaimer: I do not read the Fool column, I do not work for him, nor had I read that column before today.

That said, nice to see I have my facts straight. 8)

Felix Torres
01-20-2005, 01:26 PM
And tho I'm NOT an Apple boy (I only owned one Mac out of over 30 PC desktops, notebooks, subnotebooks, etc.; well I also had 4 Newtons too vs about a dozen PPCs), I believe this Mac Mini will be a success, even if I too can find dozens of reasons why it shouldn't be...

Ah, but there is *one* reason why it *will* do reasonably well; Mac fanboys and fan girls. They'll talk it up and they'll buy it.

Remember, I never said won't do well (as far as Mac hardware *can* do well), only that the Dell boss is correct in saying that it won't mean much to the industry as a whole.
Two very different yardsticks here: one relative (your best case scenario of Apple selling a million mini Macs and increasing its market share by 50%) and one absolute (my position that even that kind of success would leave Apple at y2k market levels and still stuck in a 3% niche).

Success is in the eye of the beholder but where the mini is concerned there isn't much to hold on to. And do consider that a good chunk of Mini sales *are* going to come from among the faithful so even selling a million boxes would not get Apple back to 3% cause a lot of them woukd come at the expense of other Mac hardware.

The issue isn't that the mini is a yawner of a product, is that Apple's market position is so bad even its best efforts can only draw media attention but little market growth...

You realize, for example, the Media Center PCs are now outselling Macs?
(500000 in the fourth quarter projects to 1.5 to 2 million a year; compared to Mac sales of under a million units a year for desktops *and* portables? Apple's 2% share is dollar based, not unit based, you know...).
Macs don't just lag PC mainstream products; they lag behind *niche* PC products...

That's a deep hole to dig out from, Mini Mac or no Mini Mac...

Jason Eaton
01-20-2005, 02:52 PM
The Motley Fool...

At least they got the name right, okay I don't disagree with everything they said but you can look me straight in the eye and say that the best you can do for a Mouse, Monitor, and Keyboard is $300 dollars?

Monitor = $69 bucks ($79 for a Dell or IBM if you want brand name, same site) (http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=581431&amp;CatId=166)

Mouse &amp; Keyboard = $29 dollars (They are wireless and just for kicks from Microsoft!) (http://www.tigerdirect.com/applications/SearchTools/item-details.asp?EdpNo=1162384&amp;Sku=TC3J-1010)

Alright, so a counter link regarding pricing of the Mac mini.
The Mac mini: Comparing Apples and Oranges (http://www.macworld.com/weblogs/editors/2005/01/miniapplesandoranges/index.php)

Now I am not going to continue posting more things about the computer. If I do people will call me a 'zealot' instead I would say I am trying my best to keep things a level playing field. Take a read at the above link with an open mind.

Jason Dunn
01-20-2005, 08:01 PM
&lt;sigh>

There's so much FUD on both sides of this it's kind of scary. I'm just going to sit back and let the market decide.

Jason Eaton
01-20-2005, 09:17 PM
There's so much FUD on both sides of this it's kind of scary. I'm just going to sit back and let the market decide.

Very much agreed. :D How about them Leafs?

Phoenix
01-21-2005, 02:05 AM
...Motley-Fool has an opinion from an investors point of view (as opposed to buyer or fan). Interesting read.

Fool.com: Apples Magic Act (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05011203.htm)


Good article. I thought the reference he made to Walt and Bernini's Saint Theresa was really funny. :lol:

Lee Yuan Sheng
01-21-2005, 03:08 AM
There's so much FUD on both sides of this it's kind of scary. I'm just going to sit back and let the market decide.

Very much agreed. :D How about them Leafs?

Leaf digital backs? Awesome, but pricey. I'm waiting to see how the Mamiya ZD performs, and if the price will really be under US$10k!

Jason Eaton
01-21-2005, 02:37 PM
There's so much FUD on both sides of this it's kind of scary. I'm just going to sit back and let the market decide.

Very much agreed. :D How about them Leafs?

Leaf digital backs? Awesome, but pricey. I'm waiting to see how the Mamiya ZD performs, and if the price will really be under US$10k!

Link for those who are curious what the reference is (well just one of their products) (http://www.creo.com/global/products/digital_photography_leaf/aptus/aptus22/default)

Think a 22 megapixel camera with a 20GB removable storage or the option to link to a portable (external) firewire drive, size your choice. A capture rate of 1.2 seconds a picture (recall the 22 megapixel image if that doesn't sound impressive) ad so on and so on...

Lee Yuan Sheng
01-24-2005, 10:30 PM
For a moment I got excited when I saw the 6x7 spec.. then I realised it's for the LCD. For a monent I thought they had such a huge sensor!

I like the new Mamiya; it's built to be pretty much standalone. And it's not that big a camera. I also think that Fuji back will be nice, but that's partly because the Fuji GX 680 is such an interesting camera.