The Inquirer: "Cameraphones Will Overtake Digital Cameras By 2008"

[Suhit Gupta]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=15635' target='_blank'>http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=15635</a><br /><br /></div>"A report from the iSuppli Corporation says that the number one application for flash memory cards remains digital cameras today but by 2008, digital cameras will be replaced by digital mobile handsets. This will be a major change because between them USB drives and digital cameras presently account for 81 per cent of the consumption of flash memory cards."<br /><br />So we have already been discussing the possibility of this happening for some time now, i.e. cell phone cameras becoming more popular than regular digital cameras. However, this article is making this claim keeping in mind the impact it will have on flash memory. Interesting take on how things are shaping up. I would ordinarily agree with them because more and more people, IMHO, are moving toward devices that combine the functionality of a cell phone, PDA, camera, watch, kitchen sink, etc into one tiny little unit. However, one problem I have with this prediction is that I think it is very ambitious. We have just hit 1MP in cameraphones and 2MP is sort of around the corner. However, standalone digital cameras are well into the 5-6MP range and offer a significantly larger feature-set which has been completely lacking in cameraphones so far (and there is that lack of flash problem). What do all of you think?

[David Prahl]

For the consumer, maybe. For nerds, never. Serious photographers will always want a REAL camera. I just can't see mounting a 300mm telephoto lens on a flip-phone. If you just want a new snapshots at decent resolution to send to grandma, I guess a phone with a good CCD would work.

[Suhit Gupta]

But I don't even think that plain old consumers would want to swich exclusively to a cameraphone, unless the qulity rapidly approaches that of the standalone digital cameras.

Suhit

[Jason Dunn]

In order for camera phones to replace low-end consumer digital cameras, they'll need to have:

3 to 4 MP
a flash
optical zoom 2x to 3x
great battery life (50+ photos with a flash at least)
a nice CMOS chip that takes decent pictures

Right now no camera phone will do that. A year from now no camera phone will do that. Maybe, just maybe, two years from now it will be closer.

Consumers like having physical prints, not just storing the picture on their phone. Right now, the basic quality just isn't there.

[Suhit Gupta]

Right now no camera phone will do that. A year from now no camera phone will do that. Maybe, just maybe, two years from now it will be closer.
Hmm, I still think that that would be ambitious. :? (skeptic I guess)

Suhit

[Don Tolson]

Every week or so, some article comes out from some 'pundit' saying that we are moving toward more consolidation of device capabilities -- especially around the phone. Smartphone, camera phone, etc.

Yes, it's handy to have some PDA functions in your phone, and to have a camera for those 'once in a lifetime' moments, we don't happen to have the camera handy. But I don't really see a move in the general public wanting to have an 'all in one' device.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

2 mp is probably enough, or even 1. The problem here is that the image processing on these cameras is so piss poor..

[Suhit Gupta]

Every week or so, some article comes out from some 'pundit' saying that we are moving toward more consolidation of device capabilities -- especially around the phone. Smartphone, camera phone, etc.

Yes, it's handy to have some PDA functions in your phone, and to have a camera for those 'once in a lifetime' moments, we don't happen to have the camera handy. But I don't really see a move in the general public wanting to have an 'all in one' device.
I don't really claim to be a pundit by any stretch of the imagination. However, I still stand by my statement that we are converging towards a all-in-one device. There are devices like the XDA II and the Samsung i700 where a PDA, cell phone and a camera are integrated into one device with decent battery life. And I feel that there are more to come. The reason why they aren't flying off the shelves is two-fold.

1) The price. It is fairly unaffordable for the common consumer. The camera they get for the price is not top notch, even though the phone and PDA have typically been adequate/good.

2) The form factor. And this is the killer IMO. Most people are aversed to holding up a PDA up to their face to make a phone call. If the same unit were either available in a flip-design, that would, IMO, make a winner. I am not talking about the Smartphone here, because even though the Smartphone is a great concept, I find its input capabilities quite limiting. What I mean instead is devices like the Motorola MPX and the Treo 600. They are tiny devices and people love them. They are phones, with PDA abilities. Now imaging if there was a camera (a good camera) embedded in that same form factor.

If such a device existed, I think we would rapidly see more convergence towards the all in one unit, because more companies would try such a solution (and therefore prices would hopefully drop). Of course this is just my non-pundit opinion :).

Suhit