Where Is The Future Of Windows Mobile for Smartphone Heading?

[Mike Temporale]

Over the last couple weeks there have been a couple rumors floating around that Microsoft is planning on killing of Windows Mobile for Smartphones and they will just offer the Pocket PC version.

Microsoft Smartphone platform will disappear soon and there will be only one and only platform for Microsoft mobile devices! The name of this platform is not decided yet, but it will be probably called "Windows Mobile 2006". And this one and only platform will be mostly based on Pocket PC, not on Microsoft Smartphone.

Msmobiles.com (http://www.msmobiles.com/news.php/3141.html) does have some valid points in their article. The two platforms do have a lot in common and the differences between them are becoming smaller with every release.

...instead of consolidating its mobile products into one platform, Microsoft is clearly bifurcating the product line to handle specific markets, just as the company is now doing with virtually all its product lines. Indeed, Microsoft speaks of Windows CE .NET--the ultimate base of all this mobile work--as the platform from which different groups create market-specific products such as the Pocket PC and Windows Mobile-based Smartphones. Although having the same group create the Smartphone and Pocket PC might make sense because the devices have the same underlying technologies, shipping Pocket PC software to Smartphones or shipping Smartphone software to Pocket PCs will never make sense. I have a Dell Axim with a 624MHz processor. That device is closer to a PC than a cell phone.

Paul Thurrot From WindowsITPro (http://www.winnetmag.com/windowspaulthurrott/Article/ArticleID/44194/windowspaulthurrott_44194.html) claims that the end is not near. To me this seems to make more sense. I just can't see Microsoft killing off the Smartphone when they are just starting to gain a foothold in the mobile market.

Which side are you on? Where do you think the future of Windows Mobile for Smartphone is headed?

[lewdvig]

I think they should offer a single core system - .Net framework, radio stack and relevant drivers/system files. From this the operators could spec exactly what they want in the OS in terms of apps and they differentiate their offerings. It makes more sense for MS to let the operators to decide how to differentiate rather than forcing them into two arbitrary systems.

[ricksfiona]

Well, Smartphone technology will only go so far so fast. I don't think it's going to be a big money-maker for Microsoft, but it's money and they will dominate and that's what Microsoft wants. For better for for worse.

[Kevin Daly]

If anything like this were to happen it would be a marketing change more than anything else.
Do you imagine they would start asking people to use a stylus with their Smartphones?
Beyond the user interface and the inclusion or otherwise of features that are appropriate for one platform but not the other, Pocket PC and Smartphone already do run the same operating system (Windows CE.NET), so it's not easy to see what substantive change would make sense (although Smartphones and Phone Edition devices will obviously share more code than Smartphone and Pocket PC).

But the big rebranding emphasising commonality has already been done with "Windows Mobile" - at most I suspect that name will just be applied to the smartphone family more consistently than previously.

[caywen]

As a developer, I actually dislike the dichotomy between Smartphone and PocketPC. Having different SDKs for PPC and SP sucks both for software developers and the OEM. It makes absolutely no sense to bifurcate these platforms, and in the end it would hurt Microsoft the most.

In the future, more PPC's will support GPRS and more SP's will support WiFi. More SP's will have a touchscreen and more PPC's will have softkeys. OEM's want a flexible platform that supports a gradient of functionality for any kind of mobile device.

So, Microsoft, please do unify the platforms. I believe it will be great for everyone.

Oh, and please oh please do something about the idiotic softkey menubar for Smartphone, ok?

:evil: :twisted: :wink:

[TANKERx]

After looking up 'bifurcate' (not a word I use every day you understand - but one I will certainly be using from now on ;-) ), I thought; Hang on a minute, if this was coming from Nokia or Palm, I would consider it FUD.

Why?

Because I'm looking to upgrade my phone fairly soon and I've been thinking about the C500 and the Series60 Nokia 7610. The factors keeping me to the Microsoft platform are merely compatibility with current software, but 7610 is calling me with memories of a wonderful UI, reliability, lots of new software every day and friendliness. So it is pretty neck-and-neck.

Where am I seeing FUD? Well, it seems to me that if Microsoft are making all these changes now, not only can I not be sure that any phone of theirs I buy won't be in the backwater before I've gotten accustomed to it, but it seems to suggest that they never fully thought through the Smartphone platform in the first place and if that is true, can they be trusted in the future? At least Symbian have a vision for Smartphones and are consistent - "bish-bash-bosh, there you are! It's a phone and it's a phone we like so we expect you to like it too".

If Microsoft knows what it is doing, then I feel that it is blatantly trying to shaft me without giving me anything in return.

Of course, my spirit tells me that the phone I have works and so keep it until it breaks.... but I hope you see my point.

[Kris Kumar]

I think when Microsoft started out they had a clear vision of how the Windows Mobile line is going to evolve. But as always hardware innovation has outpaced the software. This has put Microsoft in a tight spot. And will continue to put pressure on the Microsoft strategists.

I feel that Microsoft wants to keep the Smartphone and Pocket PC Phone Edition devices distinct, mainly because they don't want to confuse their customers. Having the separate labels helps keep the documentation, applications etc easy to find. Right now when I go to download an app from Handango, I just look for Smartphone apps. I don't look for Windows Mobile apps that work with non-touchscreen UI.

But the market/customers (are already confused) and manufacturers are demanding more from the Windows Mobile platform. They are the ones who are focusing on the new devices that kind of blurs the differences. Much to Microsoft's dislike.

Motorola MPx and the new BenQ P50 (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=290700) are the two devices that I feel blurs the difference between the Smartphone and PPC PE.

We all know Moore's law. Hardware is constantly becoming cheaper, and richer with respect performance and features. This I believe is forcing Microsoft to adapt its software.

I am not sure if what I am saying makes any sense. (the fact I am not making sense, makes sense because of all the partying last nite.)

[scottdsmith]

I honestly believe that we'll see a migration of functions to Smartphone and the eventual "die off" of the Pocket PC as we currently know it.

I look around the meetings I'm in with multiple clients and the room is now dominated by Blackberries and Smartphones. Few, if any, are now carrying a cell phone and a Pocket PC or Palm PDA.

Now if the Pocket PC morphs into something that supports an MPX200 form factor that's an entirely different premise.

I'd like to see more optional cameras as I see an issue with corporations and camera phones coming to boil soon.

[nikjones]

I bought my C500 as I wanted a phone more than a PDA (which i already have). I gave up my SE P800; the touchscreen was nice, and having a spreasheet very useful, but it was too big. The Phone-PCs (and Treo 600/650) are also too big. Hell, the E200 was too big!

If a consolidation takes place which moves away from "phone-sized" phones, I'll go back to Nokia!

[gambit]

As kevin has already pointed out, they already ARE. hence the name "Windows Mobile for Smartphone"/"PocketPC" both are tweeked GUI's plus apps sitting on Windows CE (CE.NET is the name used for CE 4.x). Although they share most of the same underlying code (See CE5 for a hint of whats to come for Windows Mobile Version <X-Men reference>) the two difference input methods and target markets are too diferent to merge.

tiny number of applications for Microsoft Smartphone platform is a proof of it.
i disagree, the pocketpc has been round a lot longer than smartphone, and it's primany use is as a PC that fits in you pocket. asside from a contacts list/appointments they don't really do alot as new.

phones on the otherhand can be happily used with NO other software. look at the unsmart phone market. they don't even HAVE a third party software market! you can't measure the success of a phone by it's apps!

crippled by small number of third party software and by decision of Microsoft not to port some basic software (like Pocket Excel, Pocket Word, MS Reader) from Pocket PC to smartphone.
why would anyone want these apps on a phone? it's a phone, not a webpad/tabletpc.

# Windows Mobile 2003 Second Edition offers support for smaller resolutions in Pocket PC than 320x240 and suppport for bigger than 176x220 resolutions in MS Smartphone
this just says that that LCDs are gaining more DPI.

# many people at Microsoft are all the time repeating officially that differences between both Windows Mobile platforms will be reduced in future
Which any company is going to do, as it reduces duplicated effort. keep the internals the same, tweek the GUI. been there done that.

# HTC is working now on Microsoft Smartphone devices with QVGA resolution and these devices will be able to run Pocket PC operating system too - there is a growing demand from hardware vendors to have one and only platform for mobiles
Once again, less duplicated effort. Plus HTC has always done PPC Phone edition devices, so it makes sense they would try and make their phone and PocketPC phone edition devices as similar as possible. From a software standpoint it would be quite easy to run both OS's on the same device. Just get a phone and add touch screen.
But the hardware, while similar, sets out to achieve to difference goals. The Pocket PC is the missing link between sub-notebooks and phone, PC's for your pocket if you will. Hence they have fast (600Mhz) processors. Smartphone's arn't measured by their processor speed (responsiveness or menu speed perhaps). when was the last time your saw a nokia add with the processor speed? they are instead measued by battery life.
As to this "growing demand" i'm unconvinced, i havn't seen this. perhaps a reference to some hard facts would help me.

# a number of very small Pocket PC phones is coming to the market soon and T-Mobile MDA Compact (also known as i-mate JAM) is just one of the first.
Two issues (market's).
1) 'chic' phones are SMALL, phone small, not pocketpc small. the eastern market doesn't do big anything. look at their laptops.
So if your going to do small then a stylus and onscreen keypad isn't going to work, it's too small! even on pocketpc it's easy to hit the wrong keys, try doing that on a phone sized device, by someone with less than eagle eyes and rock steady hands. this is not a mass market proposition.
and neither is a hardware keyboard, A) some people don't have pixy fingers. B) tiny hardware keyboards (like their software counterparts) need concentration, thats not going to work in a crowded pub (I've tried on a P800). you can't look "cool" and text with two hands. can you imagine these devices in the latest 50 cent/<insert rap star here> videos?
2)Also your not going to get the female market with PocketPC's, these are GADGETS, they appeal to MEN. (generalising people, there are exceptions!) to appeal to women, you need easy UI (like a smartphone) and you need case looks/design.
You just can't hit the smartphone market with a pocketpc GUI it's too complicated!

# Microsoft must compete in smartphone + PDA phone markets not only with Symbian but also with Palm operating system - that has huge library of third party software and only Pocket PC platform can challange Palm smartphones in that respect.
As shown here: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/01/26/euro_pda_biz_sees_first/
and here:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/01/30/palmone_retains_world_pda_crown/
Palmone, and the printer ink company, HP have the PDA market about sown up, with HP shipping over 800,000 hPaq's to the EU last year. HP is Microsoft's largest OEM of windows mobile.
BUT
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/01/26/smartphones_outsell_pdas/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/04/20/euro_q1_pda_sales/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/07/21/euro_q2_pda_market/
The smartphone market dwarfs the PDA market (2:1 in some cases), and Nokia/symbian (nokian) is the big player here, with Eony Sircsson trying to keep up (see their t610 and k700). Windows Mobile doens't even show on the radar. This is a market with a HUGE potential for growth.
Pushing the PocketPC GUI on phone uses isn't likely going to work, as shows above, besides if it was it would have by now, they've already had a PocketPC phone, (thanks to the origional XDA) for quite a while. these have not taken over the market, this is just an extention of the PocketPC, so PocketPC users don't need to buy a seperate phone.

Lastly one must factor in MS's 'connected home' stratgem. MS can't grow by flicking out a new Windows and Office every few years. (I for one use Word '97), it needs to come up with new markets, and they arn't just going to be there for the takeing. MS must either invent them or fight it out with established players, such as the video game market, where they have shown they are quite happy to make a short term loss to gain market position, which in turn furthers their long term 'connected home' goals.
see: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/10/07/ballmer_doesnt_get_it/page2.html
for comment (although i believe floored) on this stratgem in relation to the digial music business. So they need to have an impact on the phone market to ensure their vision comes about, and they can't do this with PocketPC alone.
And let us not forget the likes of Gartner et.al. are saying things like "Over half the PDAs sold ship in the US market, which declined two per cent last year. Shipments in Western Europe fell 12 per cent, and 30 per cent in Asia-Pacific." so betting the farm on PDA's is dicey at best.

In summary, they can't merge the two platforms into one (well no more so than currently, with a shared base, and tweeked GUI). They can't kill Smartphone and PocketPC can't complete low enough down the smartphone market, and this market is too important to MS's long term goals.


riki

[[email protected]]

Great post Gambit.

I believe thet Microsoft would like the two to become one. (Isn't it even their official stance on it?) The Smartphone OS is an adaption on Microsofts part to get into the market of the connected handheld, the phone. Like the Xbox is to their way into the livingroom.

[gambit]

thanks mathias, the more i though about it the more msmobiles stance didn't sound right to me, i ended up taking most of the morning writing that post (i rewrote it from scratch once) hope my boss didn't notice ;-)

riki

[MobileRob]

If it is access to the "masses" that MS wants, they will have to use the phone market to for this. There is no debate that this is the market that is the biggest and still growing. As more choices and lower prices continue to drive the success of the Smartphone, it will easily overpower the option of carring two devices, a phone and a PDA. I have used Pocket PC's from the start (I had one of the first IPAQ's made), and it is a natural evolution towards the Smartphone. The stylus seems auckward to use now that I have used the Smartphone input for awhile. If you need a keyboard, they now have those on Smartphones, either part of the unit or separate.

Interesting debate...but I believe the Smartphone is going to win in the end. :) :)

Rob.

[Jason Dunn]

Great discussion guys! I knew this topic would spark some commentary. ;-) I see two things happening:

1) People who need primarily PIM and email will get a Smartphone, ditching their PDAs - this is the majority of the market

2) Pocket PCs will remain active in the market, but their growth will top out and they'll generally be used by a smaller percentage of people who need laptop-like functionality with a higher degree of mobility

[gambit]

Jason, i think you've hit the nail on the head. that's exactlly how i see things going. I used to have a PDA for work, and i never used it. all i need is a smartphone, it has enough for PIM and games, and what-ya-will's but without the overhead of a PDA's large screen and input method.

conbine that with a large SD card and a 3.5mm head phone jack and it's all i want from a phone.

Plus it's more likely to achieve greater market pentration, which is good for MS.

riki

[[email protected]]

MobileRob: I don't think it will be a matter of winning or losing, more like a merger. Have You seen the prototype 2.2" and 2.6" VGA screens? They're bound to wind up in phones, as will "Synaptics-style" touchpads, instead of a touchscreen. Will this be a Smartphone or a PocketPC? I say neither.

[MobileRob]

MobileRob: I don't think it will be a matter of winning or losing, more like a merger. Have You seen the prototype 2.2" and 2.6" VGA screens? They're bound to wind up in phones, as will "Synaptics-style" touchpads, instead of a touchscreen. Will this be a Smartphone or a PocketPC? I say neither.

Interesting...the next year or two is going to be fun ride.

Rob.

[caywen]

I want my smartphone simply to make and take phone calls. That's it!

Oh, and games, too.

Oh, and I want it to keep my appointments.

If it could also manage my contacts and sync with Outlook that would be nice.

Hmm, a WAP browser wouldn't hurt.

You know, I'd be really happy if it had Bluetooth and Wifi

...with an SDIO slot

Come to think of it, if it had an internal 4GB hard drive, well, that's what would really be useful to me.

and I don't like grainy text, so VGA or at least QVGA... with a QWERTY keyboard.

And of course it's got to have a camera and the ability to play MP3's.


yadda

yadda

[Jason Dunn]

caywen: if you were trying to make a point, it's eluding me. :?