Is The End Near For WiFi?

[Mike Temporale]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/2004/06/21/cz_jd_0621adviser.html' target='_blank'>http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/2004/06/21/cz_jd_0621adviser.html</a><br /><br /></div>First a little background; George Glider (Gilder Publishing) provides a monthly technology report that <i>"seeks new breakthroughs stemming from paradigms of technological progress that are reshaping the global economy and opening the way to cornucopian gains in wealth."</i> Forbes.com has a write up on Mr. Glider and his technology report. According to his latest report, Mr. Glider feels that WiFi will become obsolete once broadband is replaced by high speed wireless services that will soon be offered by Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, and Cingluar. <br /><br /><i>Due to what Gilder calls "regulatory sclerosis," demand for last-mile broadband fiber is going unmet in the United States. Instead, high-speed wireless access services can leapfrog the fiber lines directly to your computer and provide even higher rates of data transmission-- over the same CDMA network that's already in place to route cell phone traffic. In fact, wireless bandwidth may soon surpass the bandwidth of broadband to the home, and the Centrino chips from Intel that enable wireless access on PCs, will become obsolete. Because of its progress with chip technology to handle so-called "3G" services like high-speed wireless access, Qualcomm is a core holding of Gilder's. He calls Wi-Fi a "mirage" of connectivity because of its non-continuous zones of coverage, and says that Qualcomm's CDMA technology will render Wi-Fi "superfluous."</i><br /><br />What I don't understand is how he makes the leap in logic from broadband being replaced by high speed wireless, to WiFi becoming obsolete. It doesn't matter how the signal gets to my house or business, it could be cable, DSL, high speed wireless, or some other way. That just provides you with a connection to the internet. Once you have that all important connection, you need some means to share that connection with all the different devices you own. That method could be a WiFi network, wired network, or even Infa-red. So, am I missing something? Is there some magical feature in 3G high speed wireless that will automatically network your machines? I know some of our readers are knowledgeable in the EV-DO world and I would love to know your thoughts on this because from where I'm sitting, WiFi is going strong and is only going to grow.

[Perry Reed]

I think the main point he is missing is that Wi-Fi, once you have your equipment, is free to use. Why, unless Sprint and others released flat-rate plans, would I want to pay data charges for my laptop in the family room to talk to my desktop in the bedroom??

Not only that, but why would I want my, essentially private, data from one device to another travelling all over the EV-DO network rather than just across my local wireless LAN?

[rbrome]

...What I don't understand is how he makes the leap in logic from broadband being replaced by high speed wireless, to WiFi becoming obsolete. It doesn't matter how the signal gets to my house or business, it could be cable, DSL, high speed wireless, or some other way. That just provides you with a connection to the internet. Once you have that all important connection, you need some means to share that connection with all the different devices you own. That method could be a WiFi network, wired network, or even Infa-red. So, am I missing something? Is there some magical feature in 3G high speed wireless that will automatically network your machines? I know some of our readers are knowledgeable in the EV-DO world and I would love to know your thoughts on this because from where I'm sitting, WiFi is going strong and is only going to grow.

I think this is an apples-and-oranges thing.

He's thinking about Wi-Fi hotspots, at places like Starbucks and the airport. For that, I agree with him that their days are very numbered, at least in the U.S. Sooner than you think (next year), the top three U.S. cell phone companies will all be offering true broadband speeds in most major areas, with 100% deployment by 2006. That's going to change things... a lot.

I also agree with him that fiber-to-the-home will never happen, because 3G and/or WiMax will render that concept obsolete.

I'd take it even further. I think that in 10 years or less, you'll buy service from a single communications company. One company will supply your Internet, phone, and TV. It will be wireless, you'll be able to access it from your home PC, your TV, your PDA, and your phone, and it will come on one bill.

With both 3G and WiMax, this is coming faster than your think.

But back to the issue at hand... I think Mike is correct that there will still be a need, among both personal and business users, for high-speed, local-area networking. Wi-Fi for that purpose will be around for a while - it's just the hotspot concept that will die. (That is, if it was ever alive... :roll: )

[possmann]

I'd just like to know if he got paid to write that - and if so how can I sign up?

[Mike Temporale]

I'd just like to know if he got paid to write that - and if so how can I sign up?

ya he did! You have to buy the technology report. I don't know what it costs, or how many people bought into this... :lol:

[David C]

This is dumb. People weren't supose to charge freaking $30 a month for a wifi setup that could be done with $20 equipment anyways.

Good riddance to the telecom company trying to rip people off by putting in wifi service in places that should have offered it for free as part of the accomodation.

No, wifi is not dead. But making a killing off of selling expensive wifi service will be. Wifi and mobile data can co-exist easily, and they should.

[yslee]

Huh? Talk about missing the wood for the trees.

Now, since the pundits have said Wifi will kill bluetooth, does that mean 3G will kill wifi?


I'd take it even further. I think that in 10 years or less, you'll buy service from a single communications company. One company will supply your Internet, phone, and TV. It will be wireless, you'll be able to access it from your home PC, your TV, your PDA, and your phone, and it will come on one bill.

Save for the wireless part, it's already happened here.