A Little Under 700k Windows Phone 7 Handsets Sold by the End of 2010. How Much Does It Matter?

[Nelson Ocampo]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://wmpoweruser.com/674k-windows-phone-7-sales-in-q4-2010-possible/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+WmPowerUser+(WM+Power+User)' target='_blank'>http://wmpoweruser.com/674k-windows...(WM+Power+User)</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Russian blogger Eldar Murtazin has posted on his analysis of carrier chatter on Windows Phone 7 sales, and came to the conclusion that 674,000 Windows Phone 7 handsets ended up in the hands of consumers by the end of last year".</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/wpt/auto/1304471025.usr117767.jpg" style="border: 1px solid #d2d2bb;" /></p><p>While Windows Phone 7 wasn't available for the full quarter, 674,000 is still a low number compared to the competition.&nbsp; I haven't seen to many other people with Windows Phones in my day to day dealings, but I'm sure that will be increasing as the operating system gets more and more robust.</p><p>The huge Mango update is expected to drop this Fall.&nbsp; Just in time for Microsoft to make a push for the last quarter of 2011.&nbsp; I'm betting that the growth will be huge.&nbsp; What do you think?</p>

[whydidnt]

What exactly is Mango/Microsoft bringing with this "huge" update that isn't already in the market? I just don't see any excitement being generated by WP7 at this point. It's late to market, updates are slow, and the hardware being offered is completely unexceptional.

Seriously, when you see the "super phones" being offered and announced running Android, and you know Apple has a lock on the easy to use/consumer oriented phone, where is the huge new market for Microsoft going to come from?

They either need to find some OEM partners that care to push the hardware envelope or start to build their own phones. We'll see what Nokia can bring to the table, but buy most accounts, that partnership won't really reach fruition until sometime in 2012. By the speed Microsoft is moving this platform, that probably means LATE 2012. They have completely missed the boat in the mobile space, and quite frankly it's amazing that Ballmer hasn't lost his job over this failure in completely missing the probably the current biggest trend in technology!!

I grow more and more disenchanted with Microsoft's strategy every day. It's becoming clear that they do NOT have a clue how to operate in the consumer space, and only through the luck of clueless competitors are able to succeed with their XBOX line.

[Stinger]

I've yet to see one "out in the wild".

Let's hope that the Microsoft/Nokia deal changes that.

[landslide]

horrible numbers if true :(

[txa1265]

<700k throws into sharp relief how much of a dismal failure WP7 is thus far.

Thing to remember - Microsoft was up there touting 2010 'sales' of 1.5 million, which the press grabbed and parroted, with some even calling it 'ahead of estimates'.

That number was the typical 'shipped' number - in other words, a LIE.

Now we discover that while Microsoft was forcing their stuff down retailers throats, those retailers (already working on thin margins) were eating all of the costs. That arrangement doesn't last too long ...

Between anemic features, disarray in updates ALREADY, and so on ... it is small wonder. Microsoft had an uphill battle - but they made it worse by releasing an OS that would have been competitive in 2008, botching updates, showing fragmentation, and so on.

[virain]

IMHO, lock of functunality holding many users from going to windows phone, then sooner we see Mango thing on it then sooner numbers will improve.

[Nelson Ocampo]

What exactly is Mango/Microsoft bringing with this "huge" update that isn't already in the market? I just don't see any excitement being generated by WP7 at this point. It's late to market, updates are slow, and the hardware being offered is completely unexceptional.

The Windows Phone OS itself is pretty unique and exceptional. Mango will bring some parity when it comes to functionality. But with Windows Phone it isn't so much about what it could do, but more about how it is done.

Seriously, when you see the "super phones" being offered and announced running Android, and you know Apple has a lock on the easy to use/consumer oriented phone, where is the huge new market for Microsoft going to come from?Most of the "super phones" coming for Android don't end up offering much more than super specs. App developers, for the most part, can't target for these super specs because that would severely limit the amount of potential customers for them.

So other than bragging rights, the super phones don't end up offering too much more. For highly technical people it is kind of cool to have. But for the lay person, there isn't that much of an advantage.

And while Apple does have a firm grip on the regular high end easy to use consumer market, that doesn't mean that competition can't succeed. It's just going to be an uphill climb.

But generally, I believe Microsoft is aiming for something in the middle. Consumers who are looking for something quick and easy to use, while also being available in a variety of form factors and price ranges.

They either need to find some OEM partners that care to push the hardware envelope or start to build their own phones. We'll see what Nokia can bring to the table, but buy most accounts, that partnership won't really reach fruition until sometime in 2012. By the speed Microsoft is moving this platform, that probably means LATE 2012. They have completely missed the boat in the mobile space, and quite frankly it's amazing that Ballmer hasn't lost his job over this failure in completely missing the probably the current biggest trend in technology!!

I don't believe that your assumptions will end up being correct when it comes to timelines. The update challenges have largely been about distribution rather than actually having the updates done. The updates had already been completed. But to see how Microsoft is learning from their mistakes, one just needs to look at the newest security update (http://forums.thoughtsmedia.com/f397/microsoft-now-pushing-security-update-wp7-phones-109140.html) going out right now.

Microsoft and Nokia have a solid agreement, and Nokia is committed to creating a variety of handsets and releasing them all throughout 2012 with functionality beyond what WP7 handsets have now. They also hope to have some ready during the last quarter of this year. If that happens, then Windows Phone will gain quite a lot of visibility world-wide.

I grow more and more disenchanted with Microsoft's strategy every day. It's becoming clear that they do NOT have a clue how to operate in the consumer space, and only through the luck of clueless competitors are able to succeed with their XBOX line.I disagree. I think it's a lot tougher than it looks to reach success.

Many companies employ many marketing specialists, each trying to outdo the competition. Software and marketing can both be quite complex.

I do think that Microsoft is moving in the right direction. But their approach looks to be a long term. Which is smart in my opinion because long term plans leave more room for strategy shifts, learning from and fixing mistakes, and getting consumer data and responding to it.

[Jason Dunn]

I've yet to see one "out in the wild".

FWIW, I saw two people using Windows Phone 7 devices on a plane I was on last month. I was a little amazed to be honest. :D So they are out there, but let's face it, it's an uphill battle to win mindshare and then marketshare.

[Jerry Raia]

I live in airports and I have yet to see a WM phone. Plenty of Androids and iPhones though. Did I mention iPads?

MS is acting like it's 1995 and they are going to swoop in and catch up like they did in the browser wars. That was a different world and a different time. The Nokia deal may just keep them gasping for air a bit longer in the mobile arena.

Apple rolls out updates in their sleep. MS is just sleeping. They are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It is sad to watch.

[txa1265]

I totally agree - I was pulling for MS but this is just dismal. I mean, check the latest news:

- The newest update they are trying to do is totally fragmented and not supported by some phones based on whether or not users self-applied the last update. Sorry - this type of thing this early? Broken and clueless.

- New sales numbers show WP7 with <2.5% of Q1'11 sales of smartphones, indicated by under 2.5 million *shipped* of the 101 million sold.

And again, we already saw MS inflate by 2x the ship to sales numbers for 2010, so this number is likely more like 1 million!

I won't go on again about WP7 having a 7 because MS has been at the mobile market since 1996 ... but REALLY? These are rookie mistakes, and if Microsoft at this point is THIS clueless someone needs to chop some heads in the organization. The inability to do a simple security patch on <10 phones within 6 months of launch? That is beyond broken! That is a systemic failure that makes me pity anyone who bought one of these things!

[Jason Dunn]

- The newest update they are trying to do is totally fragmented and not supported by some phones based on whether or not users self-applied the last update. Sorry - this type of thing this early? Broken and clueless.

Well, as someone who self-updated his phone via the "Walsh" method, I knew I was taking a risk and might screw up my phone for future updates. Anyone who used this method and is now angry about not being able to get future updates is being a baby - the warnings were VERY clear that this was an unsupported process that had risks. So I don't blame Microsoft for not having a fix to undo the unofficial method some of us used.

....however, I and everyone else who used this method wouldn't have even thought of resorting to it if Microsoft and their partners had a more predictable roll-out schedule for the updates. I've never touched a custom ROM image in my life - I'm about as Lawful Good as it gets (D&D insider joke there) when it comes to software, firmware, and apps for my devices...but I was so utterly fed up with the delays I pulled the trigger because I wanted to get some bugs fixed on my phone.

[txa1265]

Well, as someone who self-updated his phone via the "Walsh" method, I knew I was taking a risk and might screw up my phone for future updates. Anyone who used this method and is now angry about not being able to get future updates is being a baby - the warnings were VERY clear that this was an unsupported process that had risks. So I don't blame Microsoft for not having a fix to undo the unofficial method some of us used.

....however, I and everyone else who used this method wouldn't have even thought of resorting to it if Microsoft and their partners had a more predictable roll-out schedule for the updates. I've never touched a custom ROM image in my life - I'm about as Lawful Good as it gets (D&D insider joke there) when it comes to software, firmware, and apps for my devices...but I was so utterly fed up with the delays I pulled the trigger because I wanted to get some bugs fixed on my phone.

Well said Jason - there was so much about what would be delivered and when, and none of it has really happened ... and what HAS happened has largely been botched! So I feel for those who are in this situation ... but again I put it back on Microsoft. There is one thing where folks want to jump on everything immediately, but another thing with how abysmally the 'NoDo' update went ... and for how arrogant Microsoft was (via Brandon Watson) in the face of their blatant incompetence at rolling out a basic first update to a half-dozen handsets ... again, it shows how MS clearly isn't even remotely ready for anything but amateur hour ...

I am also 'LG' to the point where I am stuck without screenshot capability on my Droid Pro because I won't root ...

[Jason Dunn]

I am also 'LG' to the point where I am stuck without screenshot capability on my Droid Pro because I won't root ...

If you want to talk about a disaster update story, look at Android. Yeesh! What an ugly mess that is. Microsoft's story looks great in comparison. ;)

Apple seems to be the only ones who really have updates figured out - but they'd have to be idiots to not have it figured out given they have one model of phone (well, maybe two if you count GSM and CDMA versions).

I personally believe that Microsoft has learned a lot from the current mess they're in and I have cautious hopes that by the time Mango arrives, things will go smoother. <crosses fingers>

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Sorry, why is it wrong to root an Android phone?

[Jason Dunn]

Sorry, why is it wrong to root an Android phone?

Are you referring to something I said? I never said it was wrong to root an Android phone.

[txa1265]

If you want to talk about a disaster update story, look at Android. Yeesh! What an ugly mess that is. Microsoft's story looks great in comparison. ;)
Actually it really doesn't ... Android IS a fragmented mess, but there are many generations of phones with loads of devices across tons of hardware and other stuff ... and yet ~90% of all active users are on either 2.1 or 2.2! I have yet to hear of a unified release with as many issues as NoDo. And again, there were more Android models released *this week* than TOTAL WP7 models ... so this is supposed to be when it is EASY.

Apple seems to be the only ones who really have updates figured out - but they'd have to be idiots to not have it figured out given they have one model of phone (well, maybe two if you count GSM and CDMA versions).
Well, you have 5 iPhone versions (4 + VZW), 4 iPod Touch generations and 2 iPad generations. Still ... there are loads of pros and cons and it is different enough that it is hard to compare.

I personally believe that Microsoft has learned a lot from the current mess they're in and I have cautious hopes that by the time Mango arrives, things will go smoother. <crosses fingers>

I hope you are right ...

Sorry, why is it wrong to root an Android phone?

It isn't inherently wrong ... but coming from a gaming perspective before I got my first smartphone I have typically seen folks using 'custom firmware' as a means of pirating software. I would say that 99.99995% of PSP's with custom firmware are running pirated games ... and so on.

[Jason Dunn]

Actually it really doesn't ... Android IS a fragmented mess, but there are many generations of phones with loads of devices across tons of hardware and other stuff ... and yet ~90% of all active users are on either 2.1 or 2.2!

I don't know, it's the endless griping of Android users complaining about not getting such-and-such release, and the mockery of reviewers of new phones coming out with such-and-such old release, is quite firmly embedded in my mind. :)

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

I don't know, it's the endless griping of Android users complaining about not getting such-and-such release, and the mockery of reviewers of new phones coming out with such-and-such old release, is quite firmly embedded in my mind. :)

Both of you aren't quite wrong, and at the same time aren't quite right. True, most devices are on 2.1 or 2.2, but the difference in functionality between the two can be quite large. Built-in Apps2SD, performance boosts, and more (which by now I've quite taken them for granted).

Note that there's less moaning about phones not having 2.3; Gingerbread is not such a big update that not having it will not set one's phone that far back among the newer phones.

Now, back to WP7: I really had a pleasant time updating my LG Optimus 7. I still think the anger needs to be directed at carriers. Until you break them like the way Apple did, you North American users are going to have to put up with a lot of issues.

As for sales, I think expecting WP7 to hit Android levels was never going to be possible. I still think MS has a chance to be a player in the market, but they need to act quickly. Restore functionality, and more importantly, get more developers to code apps. Marketplace is a sad sad *sad* place. Never thought I'd say that about Android Market, but it now actually has a decent collection of apps.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

It isn't inherently wrong ... but coming from a gaming perspective before I got my first smartphone I have typically seen folks using 'custom firmware' as a means of pirating software. I would say that 99.99995% of PSP's with custom firmware are running pirated games ... and so on.

Well, if you know the distinction, why not root your Droid? Sticking to a rigid rule without applying the principle sounds like shooting yourself in the foot.

[Nelson Ocampo]

I think declarations of failure are a little premature.

The Nokia deal was HUGE for Microsoft.

If Windows Phone could convert the even 10% of Nokia's current customers by the end of 2012, then that launches Windows Phone into being an extremely competitive ecosystem quickly.

Nokia isn't a bit player by any means. And while they are losing market share right now, there are still quite a few people around the globe that are much more loyal to the Nokia brand than they are to any OS.

Also keep in mind that when Windows Phone 8 is released, that doesn't mean that Windows Phone 7 is dead. My guess is that WP7 will continue to exist as an option for low cost smartphones around the world.

They could be two concurrent products. Each with its own set of minimum system requirements.

[txa1265]

Well, if you know the distinction, why not root your Droid? Sticking to a rigid rule without applying the principle sounds like shooting yourself in the foot.

I had rooted my original Droid, but it was behaving a bit funky ... and with my Droid Pro I am just keeping it as simple as possible ...

[burnabytom]

I live in airports and I have yet to see a WM phone. Plenty of Androids and iPhones though. Did I mention iPads?

MS is acting like it's 1995 and they are going to swoop in and catch up like they did in the browser wars. That was a different world and a different time. The Nokia deal may just keep them gasping for air a bit longer in the mobile arena.

Apple rolls out updates in their sleep. MS is just sleeping. They are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It is sad to watch.

Gee Jerry: given the hardware that you post on the bottom of your email, I find it hard to swallow your "it is sad to watch" comment. Sounds more like you'd love it if MS fails. MS investing 8.5 Billion in R&D annually will have an impact and I'll bet that the tune will be different for christmas 2011.

[Jerry Raia]

Gee Jerry: given the hardware that you post on the bottom of your email, I find it hard to swallow your "it is sad to watch" comment. Sounds more like you'd love it if MS fails. MS investing 8.5 Billion in R&D annually will have an impact and I'll bet that the tune will be different for christmas 2011.

I grant you it does look that way. I have a drawer with 4 WM phones I don't use anymore. I really don't want MS to fail. They just seem so stagnant right now. How many huge lumbering companies, while still around, have followed the same path. The world is zipping past them and they can't even squeak out a "cut and past" update.

[jimtravis]

I visited a local T-Mobile store to purchase the HD7 the day after it was released last year. There were no WP7 devices on display. When I asked a sales rep to see one, he said he thinks they have one in the back room charging up. After about 5 minutes of searching in the back room, he returned with a working HD7. The sales rep's knowledge about WP7 could fit in a thimble. After a few minutes with it, I did purchase a HD7 because I am a gadget person nothing to do with the sales rep.

The average non-tech consumer is inundated with iOS commercials nightly on network TV for both iPhone, and iPad. In most cases, the iOS devices are shown doing simple tasks that a non-tech consumer would value. We did have a flurry of WP7 commercials when they were released (IMO - not very good), but have not seen a WP7 commercial on mainstream media in quite some time. Meanwhile, I am still inundated with iOS commercials nightly. I pass multiple illuminated kiosks downtown advertising the iPhone, and several more advertising the iPad vs. zero for competing devices. Add in all the free mentions Apple gets in the mainstream press whenever a new / updated device is released, and you have an Apple marketing juggernaut resulting in massive mindshare with the non-tech consumer. If you are an avid moviegoer, you would think the Apple / MS desktop market shares were reversed due to the number of Apple logo devices prominently displayed in most mainstream movies. The general tech blogs salivate over everything Apple while they seem to nitpick on the deficiencies of competing devices.

Apple was the only company to massively advertise MP3 devices in the mainstream media, and as a result, they won the MP3 race handily. It was hard to go a night watching network TV without several iPod commercials mainly advertising "being cool" because the devices were definitely feature deficient compared to the competition which unfortunately did not advertise in the mainstream media. The famous silhouette ads advertised "coolness" / "being hip", and certainly helped Apple dominate the MP3 player market. When it was time to move up to a smartphone, the Apple brand was easily recognizable from all the former iPod ads, the then ubiquitous iPhone ads, and the "halo" effect from having owned at least one iPod. The fact Apple emphasized the iPhone includes an iPod certainly helped as well. Only recently did competing devices advertise on network TV. Prior to the Droid commercials, the major carrier advertised their networks, and any phones in the commercials were secondary. Android's meteoric rise did not start until massive advertising for Android based devices became common in mainstream media.

I am a gadget enthusiast, and a former Windows Mobile superfan / power user bordering on evangelist. I felt MS threw out the baby with the bath water when they abandoned Classic WM which still does more of the tasks I need out of the box than any competing platform. WP7 definitely has a smooth UI; however I do not see any compelling reason to switch back from my new favorite power user friendly Android platform which has an equally smooth UI 95% of the time. Android needs to fine tune the code to make that number 100%. I will always own at least one WP7 device because I am a gadget enthusiast / addict, but it cannot be my daily driver in its current configuration. I do not use the iOS platform as my daily driver due to its similar limitations. I recently used my roving T-Mobile SIM in a HD7 for two weeks, and then a HD2 for two weeks. The HD2 was able to accomplish 100% of the tasks I wanted while out, the HD7, about 60% due to restricted file access, or unavailable critical (for me) third party apps. My 2004 era Toshiba VGA PDA does more of the tasks I want than the HD7 except of course it can not make phone calls. Sure the HD7 is a bit smoother than the HD2, but smoothness means nothing if I cannot accomplish what I need to do while mobile.

Unfortunately, Windows Phone 7 emulated the Apple model too closely for my needs. The WP7 UI is definitely as smooth as iOS. However, the Metro UI tiles are certainly a matter of opinion not a guaranteed wow factor, and the restricted file access etc. are just too limiting like the same restrictions are in iOS. If MS kept the power user features of Classic WM, fine tuned the code, and added a super smooth UI like WP7, MS would have the best mobile OS bar none.

Microsoft has to get the carriers on board so the only working model is not charging in the back room. Maybe I just hit a bad store, but it was the day after the phone was released, it should have been receiving prominent display. MS also needs some new exciting hardware, and frequent updates adding features to surpass the competition, not just attain parity. The latest WP7 update shown several weeks ago looks nice, but is not due until the Fall. By that time, we will probably have a new iPhone, and top end, tech bleeding edge phones are released almost weekly on the Android platform. Finally, MS has to match Apple's mainstream media advertising budget, and probably while they are at it, switch advertising agencies.

[wspears868]

I have had windows PDA's and phones since the 90's, and I am ready to give up on them. We still don't have cut and paste or run multiple non-MS applications at the same time. As mentioned by most forum readers, their update capability sucks. I thought they could update windows phone 7's without the carriers' permission, like the i-phone. I also got really tired of buying expensive phones and finding that you also needed to buy a new phone in order to update the software. Given their update delays at this point, I am not sure that they won't back into that requirement again. In short, they don't have the fire in their belly. Nor have they presented a pressing reason to prefer their phones.

[TheBigCheese]

I predict the Mango update will not go smoothly and this will forever cripple WM7 sales. Microsoft lied to the public about the update process. Originally, they said the carriers would have nothing to o with the updates and Microsoft would be pushing them out by itself. Now, it seems, the carriers can skip any updates and delay others. That and the fact Microsoft doesn't seem to be doing much testing of updates bodes I'll for their getting the confidence of the public.

I have yet to see. WM7 phone in the wild. Lying about sales figures is yet another black eye.

I had Windows Mobile 5 and 6 phones for 4 years and the day I ditched WM for Android was one of the happiest days of my life. Unfortunately, the talk from Microsoft that they learned a lesson is just talk and very little action.

[Nelson Ocampo]

I predict the Mango update will not go smoothly and this will forever cripple WM7 sales. Microsoft lied to the public about the update process. Originally, they said the carriers would have nothing to o with the updates and Microsoft would be pushing them out by itself. Now, it seems, the carriers can skip any updates and delay others. That and the fact Microsoft doesn't seem to be doing much testing of updates bodes I'll for their getting the confidence of the public.

I don't recall Microsoft ever saying that carriers wouldn't be part of the update process. In fact, they stated that carriers would be able to delay an update for one cycle. That's far from saying that carriers wouldn't be involved.

There's also the manufacturers we have to think of. In particular, Samsung apparently had released some units that had problems.

It's a learning process for all involved. Hopefully they'll have it worked out. They are definitely working towards improving the process.

I have yet to see. WM7 phone in the wild. Lying about sales figures is yet another black eye.

There's the "lying" accusation again. What did they lie about?

Microsoft doesn't sell phones. They sell OS licenses.

I had Windows Mobile 5 and 6 phones for 4 years and the day I ditched WM for Android was one of the happiest days of my life. Unfortunately, the talk from Microsoft that they learned a lesson is just talk and very little action.

Perhaps you're jumping to conclusions?

[txa1265]

There's the "lying" accusation again. What did they lie about?

Microsoft doesn't sell phones. They sell OS licenses.

Google also sells OS licenses. When they say they are activating 300,000 per day, and you look at the monthly sales ... it all adds up.

Microsoft came out at EOY 2010 and said 1.5 million sold, and implied in the statement was that it was about phones, not just how many OS licenses they crammed down handset makers throats. In reality there less than HALF that many devices sold to actual people.

So whether it is lying, misleading or one of those 'depends what you mean by IS' sorts of things, Microsoft clearly had information and chose to present it in a certain way that looked favorable for them ...

[Jerry Raia]

...not just how many OS licenses they crammed down handset makers throats. In reality there less than HALF that many devices sold to actual people...

The Nokia deal essentially does the same thing. It will be interesting to see if when those phones see the light of day, people are not running away from WM.

[Nelson Ocampo]

Google also sells OS licenses. When they say they are activating 300,000 per day, and you look at the monthly sales ... it all adds up.

Microsoft came out at EOY 2010 and said 1.5 million sold, and implied in the statement was that it was about phones, not just how many OS licenses they crammed down handset makers throats. In reality there less than HALF that many devices sold to actual people.

Ah. So when they say how many they sold, you take that as "lying" since they didn't explicitly state that it wasn't to end users. Even when they were asked to clarify the statements and they said it was to manufacturers.

So whether it is lying, misleading or one of those 'depends what you mean by IS' sorts of things, Microsoft clearly had information and chose to present it in a certain way that looked favorable for them ...

You could say that their first statement was ambiguous. And the reason for ambiguity could have been for marketing and to lesson PR damage. But they weren't lying.

It actually seems that when you're accusing them of "lying", you're doing exactly what you think MS did.

[txa1265]

Nelson, I know you are a MS apologist, so you are bound to pick apart semantics rather than get to the core of the discussion, but I'll try anyway ...

Sony has gotten nailed (by myself as well) at their ever-shifting use of 'sales' to mean either 'sell in', 'sell out', or 'shipped'. They leverage the statements for specific market interests, to the point where they had to do a reset for the PSP to avoid reporting negative sales numbers for a quarter a few years back!

When discussing OS licensed MS talks about 'sales' and means 'sales'. When they talk about Office sales they mean sales. When they talk about XBOX sales, they also mean sales. Yet when it comes to phone stuff ... they say sales, let the numbers float and then 'clarify' in something that will appear as a footnote on about 1% of the reports already long since circulated that said '1.5 million sold'?

You can choose whatever words you might like, but Microsoft was clearly manipulating the situation to get out a message they knew blogs would mindlessly parrot ... and that message was 1.5 million SOLD.

[Jerry Raia]

Even if it was 1.5 million, in the face of Android and iOS it is nothing. Unless MS gets hungry for this it will still be nothing in another year.

[Jason Dunn]

Unless MS gets hungry for this it will still be nothing in another year.

It takes time to build up an appetite, and time to cook the food. Microsoft is hungry now - Windows Phone 7 is proof of that. It just needs more time in the kitchen and a few more ingredients. :)

[Jerry Raia]

They are using a slow cooker the likes of which has never been seen :)

[Jason Dunn]

I visited a local T-Mobile store to purchase the HD7 the day after it was released last year. There were no WP7 devices on display. When I asked a sales rep to see one, he said he thinks they have one in the back room charging up. After about 5 minutes of searching in the back room, he returned with a working HD7. The sales rep's knowledge about WP7 could fit in a thimble. After a few minutes with it, I did purchase a HD7 because I am a gadget person nothing to do with the sales rep.

This is a core problem that I see over and over again - in the city where I live (Calgary), virtually every phone store has nothing more than dummy phones on display. So how is a customer supposed to make a decision about which phone is the best fit for their needs if they can't try the phones? Especially for a new OS like Windows Phone 7, which doesn't have the immediate brand recognition or the "Oh, my friend has that phone and I like it" factor, this is a huge problem. The customer is probably going to default to what they already know, or what the salesperson tells them is the best.

I personally don't think a store should be allowed to sell a phone unless they have a working model on display.

[Jason Dunn]

They are using a slow cooker the likes of which has never been seen :)

You know how Microsoft operates: it takes them a long time to build up their hunger to compete, and when they do, things aren't going to come to fruition immediately.

I mean, seriously, does anyone think that (for example) every iOS feature we've seen for the past four versions was finished and ready to go in v1 of iOS, and Apple is somehow just releasing previously finished features for fun? No, of course not. They started with a core set of features - which didn't include copy/paste, apps, WiFi tethering, multitasking, etc. - and every version since then they've added new features. You can't get every feature you need or want in v1 of the product - you build a foundation that will give you a solid basis for growth, then you build on that foundation as quickly as you can. There is no other way to do it.

Some of the people in this thread are pretty funny - they'd be the ones yelling at the pregnant woman to have her baby faster. Some things simply take time to develop properly, and getting upset about it won't change a thing. :)

[txa1265]

But Microsoft was very early in the smartphone game - they have been in the mobile OS game more than 15 years now. They have dealt with PDA / handset makers and the wrath of users over inconsistent / failed updates, and on and on and on ...

I would say that the '1.0' mindset is like a woman with 5 kids getting married to a new person and getting pregnant and not knowing what to do and everyone saying 'hey, give her a break, this is her first pregnancy!'

It is Windows Phone ***7*** for a reason, coming on the heels of 6.5, 6.1, 6.0 and so on. Sure it is somewhat of a reboot from a technical perspective, but if Microsoft isn't carrying anything from 15 years of their own experience and 30 years of liberally borrowing from Apple, then I don't know what ...

[Nelson Ocampo]

Nelson, I know you are a MS apologist, so you are bound to pick apart semantics rather than get to the core of the discussion, but I'll try anyway ...

I am a fan of some of their products. I think it's a little far saying, "apologist." A little over dramatic, don't you think?

Sony has gotten nailed (by myself as well) at their ever-shifting use of 'sales' to mean either 'sell in', 'sell out', or 'shipped'. They leverage the statements for specific market interests, to the point where they had to do a reset for the PSP to avoid reporting negative sales numbers for a quarter a few years back!

Were they trying to present their product in as good a light as possible? Yes.

Did it make it difficult to make an apples to apples comparison because of the different metrics used? Yes.

But were they lying? Nope.

Is saying they were "lying" dishonest in itself? Yeah.

When discussing OS licensed MS talks about 'sales' and means 'sales'. When they talk about Office sales they mean sales. When they talk about XBOX sales, they also mean sales. Yet when it comes to phone stuff ... they say sales, let the numbers float and then 'clarify' in something that will appear as a footnote on about 1% of the reports already long since circulated that said '1.5 million sold'?

A lot of Windows 7 licenses are purchased directly by consumers.
Also, do you know that when MS says, "sales" for Windows 7, they specifically mean sales to consumers? Not all of their sales?

As for XBOX, that's a product they manufacture. They don't sell an XBOX license to a third party that would then sell to a consumer. Then possibly report sales number to Microsoft.

You can choose whatever words you might like, but Microsoft was clearly manipulating the situation to get out a message they knew blogs would mindlessly parrot ... and that message was 1.5 million SOLD.

I know that Microsoft was looking to paint things in as positive a light as possible. I don't think anyone is denying that. It was pretty obvious. Especially when clarified.

I don't think you've proven a "lie" anywhere. So perhaps different language is in order if you want to be accurate? I believe that when you throw around thinks like "lying" and "apologist", you end up muddying any real and honest discussion.

[Nelson Ocampo]

They are using a slow cooker the likes of which has never been seen :)

Haha. It appears so.

That's why the Nokia deal is so important. Much of Nokia's market has brand loyalty to Nokia, not Symbian. They could care less what OS is on the phone.

So while MS is slow cooking the Windows Phone OS, they will likely have an install base built up as soon as it's ready. And these people won't even need to taste it. They'll buy it because Nokia is their trusted friend.

At that point it's up to MS to make sure that these customers don't regret their purchase.

[Jerry Raia]

At that point it's up to MS to make sure that these customers don't regret their purchase.

That's the part that worries me :eek:

[Jason Dunn]

But Microsoft was very early in the smartphone game - they have been in the mobile OS game more than 15 years now. They have dealt with PDA / handset makers and the wrath of users over inconsistent / failed updates, and on and on and on ...

Microsoft's legacy experience in this space is frankly what got them into this ugly position in the first place. Pocket PC 1.0 in October 2000 was seriously revolutionary - there was absolutely nothing else like it. By 2007, when the first iPhone was released, Pocket PC was no longer revolutionary - and while it was great for a certain type of user, it was never going to be the mass market product that everyone wanted. The game had changed, but Microsoft's legacy product was no longer what most people wanted. They spent years trying to re-work it, slap a fresh coat of paint on it (WM 6.5), etc. Starting over was the only option.

I would say that the '1.0' mindset is like a woman with 5 kids getting married to a new person and getting pregnant and not knowing what to do and everyone saying 'hey, give her a break, this is her first pregnancy!'

Knowing what to do is different from giving birth to a child and the in-laws getting mad that the kid can't walk, talk, and know the multiplication table by 12 months old. That's effectively what much of the criticism amounts to - that Microsoft isn't growing the operating system fast enough. If this were November and it had been a year and no updates had been shipped for WP7, that would be a valid criticism.

With NoDo out of the gate - a bumpy ride, yes, but it shipped - and Mango coming fairly soon, I don't think it's a valid criticism. Code takes time, no matter who writes it. What needs to get ironed out of course is what happens to the code once Microsoft ships it and how long it takes to get to customer phones - that absolutely has to improve.

It is Windows Phone ***7*** for a reason, coming on the heels of 6.5, 6.1, 6.0 and so on. Sure it is somewhat of a reboot from a technical perspective...

Calling it Windows Phone 7 was a pure marketing play, designed to get some positive "draft" off the excellent reception that Windows 7 was getting. "Somewhat" of a technical reboot isn't accurate based on my understanding of the OS. I'm not a developer, so there's only so much I can say on this topic, but it's based on Windows CE 7 instead of 6 and in every sense of the way was built from scratch.

It's a 1.0 OS. I mean, look at WP7: there's literally no trace of anything Windows Mobile 6.x in there. Every feature they're added is being done from scratch - I haven't seen of heard of any code porting from 6.x, etc. I mean, if they could port over features, don't you think they would have? WP7 is, in every sense of the word, a do-over, with every feature of the product being started from zero.

I'm not saying any of this to excuse the shortcomings and failings of Windows Phone 7 - there are many - but to pretend there aren't viable reasons for it is naïve. Not everything can be laid at the feet of "bad management" - even the best developers and designers in the world take time to create their art.

[Jason Dunn]

You can choose whatever words you might like, but Microsoft was clearly manipulating the situation to get out a message they knew blogs would mindlessly parrot ... and that message was 1.5 million SOLD.

Aw, come on...lying is presenting fictitious numbers that have no bearing in reality. What Microsoft did was "optimize" the presentation of the numbers - it's a very common practice, and while I agree it's not as forthright as simply stating "This is the number of times our product has been purchased by consumers", to call is lying isn't an honest term. It's a marketing/PR ploy, yes, but lying? No.