Gartner Also Says Microsoft Mobile Will Beat Apple By 2015

[Richard Chao]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-will-beat-apple-in-mobile-by-2015-says-gartner-2011-4' target='_blank'>http://www.businessinsider.com/micr...-gartner-2011-4</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"So says research firm Gartner, predicting that Microsoft will rise to number-two in the smartphone market by 2015, putting it ahead of Apple's iOS. Gartner is even more bullish on Windows Phone than IDG, which drew a similar conclusion earlier this month."</em></p><p><em><img height="335" src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com//wpt/auto/1302197205.usr117680.png" style="border: 0;" width="600" /></em></p><p>Gartner is forecasting that by 2015 Microsoft will become number two in mobile behind Android and ahead of Apple. &nbsp;IDG made a similar announcement recently. &nbsp;Like IDG's announcement, Gartner is presuming Symbian users will stick with Nokia and swap over to Windows Phone OS. &nbsp;</p><p>What do you think? &nbsp;Could it be possible? &nbsp;</p>

[subzerohf]

It is possible - if not for Android. I think Android will suck up existing Nokia fans that only a fraction of today's Nokia users will be using a Nokia smartphone in 2015.

[alese]

So they predict that Nokia smartphone users will (mostly) use new Nokia Windows Phone devices and the rest is pretty much devided between existing platforms and locked in?

I don't buy that.
For one I don't think RIM and Blackbery will still be relevant in 2015. I may be wrong but they are well on their way to pull of another Palm, fade away completely or get bought up by someone and become irrelevant.
Also, I'm not sure Windows Phone will "just get" the Symbian users by default, just because Nokia is switching. Many existing users just don't like MS so they will probably switch to iOS or Android, but it is true that a lot of people buy Nokia phones - regardless of the OS and such people will probably go to WP7.

Anyhow, my completely unscietific gut feeling is saying that at the end (maybe in 2015, maybe a bit later) there will be only three relevant mayor mobile platforms, Android on top, Microsoft second and iOS third, all the rest will be in the others column.
Apple will probably still get the most out of it, even if they will be "just" 3rd, selling 200+M devices with iOS, having such a huge and (mostly) unfragmented market will bring in just great revenues to Apple.